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Mar 9, 2018

Morning Euro Markets Bulletin

 
ADVFN  Morning Euro Markets Bulletin
Daily world financial news Friday, 09 March 2018 11:02:58
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London open: Stocks little changed as investors eye payrolls report
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London stocks were little changed in early trade on Friday as investors eyed the release of the key non-farm payrolls report and digested news that US President Trump has accepted an offer to meet North Korea’s Kim Jong Un.

At 0840 GMT, the FTSE 100 was down 0.1% to 7,196.33 and the pound was flat against the dollar at 1.3809 and 0.1% firmer versus the euro at 1.1225.

Trump has agreed to meet with Kim Jong Un by May for talks about its nuclear weapons, something North Korea has been seeking with an American president for more than twenty years.

Spreadex analyst Connor Campbell said: "Despite a 24 hour period stuffed with international developments, the markets avoiding any drastic movements this Friday.

"Perhaps it’s because investors are caught between Donald Trump signing an order dictating tariffs on metal imports - but one with room for country-by-country exceptions - and the news that the President is set to meet Kim Jong-un for an unprecedented summit.

"It appears that the former is informing trading more than the latter, though the relatively measured nature of the early losses suggests that the North Korea news may have helped matters. Of course, adding to the apparent reticence is the looming US non-farm jobs report, with investors set to dig through the wage growth data especially to assess it for any hawkish qualities."

The non-farm payrolls report, unemployment rate and average hourly earnings are all due at 1330 GMT. Before that, UK industrial production, manufacturing production and trade balance are at 0930 GMT.

In corporate news, satellite operator Inmarsat fell after saying it would be cutting its annual dividend to 20 cents a share as it cited “the lack of visibility” over future cash payments from the US 5G Ligado Networks beyond the end of 2018 and the need to take advantage of the growing in-flight wi-fi market.

Renewi slumped after the waste-to-products business said a review of contracts in its waste management division would lead to additional write-downs worth a £73m.

On the upside, sports betting and gaming company GVC Holdings, which received shareholder approval for its merger with Ladbrokes Coral this week, rallied as posted a rise in full-year adjusted profit and net gaming revenue, thanks in part to the acquisition of Bwin.

Building products supplier SIG edged just a little higher even as it reported a 10% decline in underlying profits and cash flow shrinking by a third as the UK market becomes "increasingly challenging". Underlying profits were higher than some analysts forecast due to property disposals.

In broker note action, Smurfit Kappa was upgraded to ‘hold’ at Kepler Cheuvreux, Esure was lifted to ‘outperform’ by RBC Capital Markets and G4S was upgraded to ‘hold’ at SEB Equities.

Meanwhile, Pennon and Severn Trent were boosted to ‘overweight’ at JPMorgan and Acacia Mining and Centamin were initiated at ‘sell’ and ‘hold’, respectively, by Berenberg

 


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Europe open: Stocks dip on unexpected US tariff, Korea moves and ahead of jobs report
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Stocks have started slightly lower, with unexpected announcements from the US administration on the White House's tariff plans and North Korea adding to the uncertainty ahead of the release of the monthly US jobs report.

Against that backdrop, as of 0917 GMT, the benchmark Stoxx 600 was dipping by 0.03% or 0.14 points to 376.48, alongside a fall of 0.47% or 58.94 points in the German Dax to 12,296.57 and a retreat of 0.14% or 7.54 points for the French Cac-40 to 5,247.06.

Meanwhile, euro/dollar was 0.03% lower to 1.2311, while the yield on the German 10-year Bund was retreating was bouncing back by two basis points and at 0.65%, following the prior session's sharp drop after the European Central Bank sounded a more dovish than expected note.

"With having to absorb the Trump tariffs story and the various carve-outs, as well as the unexpected announcement of a potential historic meeting between the US President and North Korea’s Kim Jong Un, investors have a lot to contend with ahead of the weekend, as investors try and stay one step ahead of the US President’s predilection for unpredictability," said Michael Hewson, chief market analyst at CMC Markets UK.

Nevertheless, at first glance the US president's tariff plans did appear to leave room for the country's allies to be at least partly exempted, which appeared to be a relative positive, although markets were still closely watching for other countries' reactions.

No announcement on tariffs had been expected for Thursday night.

"Moving on, the trade conflict is highly likely to be the source of bouts of market volatility in the near future. Admittedly, when Mr. Trump signed the tariff order late yesterday, [fixed income] markets showed virtually no reaction. It now depends on how other countries, particularly China and the EU, respond to the US tariffs," said analysts at Unicredit Research.

Also overnight, and breaking with decades of tradition in foreign policy, president Trump agreed to meet North Korean dictator Kim Jong Un. Analysts generally greeted the news, but cautioned that Pyongyang might have gained "respectability" in exchange for very little.

Economic data was on the soft side at the end of the week.

French industrial production fell back sharply in January, falling by 2.0% against December, with declines see across all the main categories, led by falls in Mining and Construction output of 6.7% and 7.6%, respectively, INSEE said.

Spanish industrial production was also weaker, shrinking by an outsized 2.6% during the same month (consensus: 0.1%) as energy ouput fell back by an outsized 7.5%, although production of capital goods also weakened, falling by 2.3%, according to INE.

German industrial production undershot forecasts as well, with the country's Ministry of Finance reporting a dip of 0.1% month-on-month (consensus: 0.5%).

Looming large on the economic calendar for later in the day was the US non-farm payrolls report for the month of February, which was scheduled for release at 1330 GMT.

In the corporate space, Airbus was again making headlines, with Bloomberg reporting that India's largest carrier, IndiGo, might be set to purchase up to 50 SE A330 wide-body jets from the Leiden, Netherlands-based manufacturer.

Further South, according to analysts at Banco SabadellTelefonica could generate €8.4bn by selling its German arm, which would help to accelerate its attempts deleverage its balance sheet.

Banco Sabadell stuck to a 'buy' recommendation for the shares.

 


US close: Markets finish firmer as White House delays metals tariffs

Trading on Wall Street finished firmer on Thursday, amid reports that the White House might yet tinker with its final proposals on tariffs.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed up 0.38% at 24,895.21, the S&P 500 added 0.45% to 2,738.97, and the Nasdaq 100 was ahead 0.53% at 6,966.43.

According to Bloomberg, who cited a person familiar with planning within the Oval office, the signing of Trump’s proposed punitive metals tariffs had been delayed in order to have more time to prepare the legal documents.

“US stock index futures shrugged off early weakness and pushed into positive territory a few hours ahead of the open,” noted David Morrison, chief market strategist at GKFX, earlier.

“Investors continue to play down concerns over Trump’s proposed tariffs and consequent fears of an escalation into an outright trade war.

“This is despite the resignation of Gary Cohn, Trump’s chief economic advisor, who was widely considered to be Wall Street’s man at the White House.”

Earlier in the day, European Central Bank president Mario Draghi took shots at Donald Trump's tariffs on US imports of steel and aluminium that triggered fears of a trade war.

Draghi said that while the initial impact of the tariffs was "not going to be big", he noted that "unilateral decisions are dangerous", and voiced his concerns regarding the White House's chosen direction in terms of international economic relations.

"If you put tariffs against your allies you wonder who your enemies are," Draghi said.

The ECB boss also announced that the monetary authority was taking steps towards ending its crisis-era stimulus measures on Thursday, abandoning an explicit commitment to purchase more bonds and expand its quantitative easing programme - if necessary.

Investors had been on edge since Trump announced last week that he was planning a 25% tariff on steel imports and a 10% tariff on aluminium, prompting fears of a trade war.

On Wednesday, European Commission trade chief Cecilia Malmstrom said she had prepared a provisional list of all the US products that would see higher tariffs in Europe if Trump goes ahead with his plans.

They included duties on bourbon whisky, peanut butter, cranberries and orange juice.

Malmstrom also said that the EU would be taking the case before the World Trade Organisation.

In economic data, initial jobless claims rose by 21,000 to 231,000 in the seven days ended 3 March, reaching their highest level in a month-and-a-half just one week after dropping to the lowest level since 1969.

Analysts had predicted unemployment claims to come in at 220,000, although as analysts explained, seasonal quirks have historically seen numbers spike in February.

On the corporate front, shares in pharmacy benefits manager Express Scripts picked up 8.58% after it agreed to be bought by health insurer Cigna in a cash and stock deal valued at around $67bn, which includes the assumption of approximately $15bn in Express debt.

Cigna shares, however, were 11.44% weaker.

Burlington Stores surged 5.84% after the off-price department store’s fourth-quarter earnings topped expectations, while membership warehouse Costco Wholesale slipped 0.89% after it posted higher-than-forecast quarterly revenues late on Wednesday.

Supermarket chain Kroger fell back 12.39% after beating sales estimates and reporting in line with market expectations, and fashion retailer American Eagle Outfitters dropped 9.43% despite beating same-store estimates.

 


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Friday newspaper round-up: Trump tariffs, Budget, Shell, Aviva accused

Donald Trump pushed forward with plans to impose tariffs on steel and aluminium imports on Thursday, arguing the levies were necessary for national security and to stop the “assault on our country”. Flanked by steel and aluminium workers and key staff, Trump said he had to act to stop the “decimation of entire communities” and insisted there would be a very fair process as the administration used the next 15 days to negotiate exemptions with allies. Canada and Mexico will be exempted. - Guardian

…Trump indicated those nations spending more on defence would be better positioned, and White House officials indicated "carve outs" would be decided on a "country by country" basis. The UK is one of only half a dozen Nato countries that meets the requirement of spending two per cent of GDP on defence. - Telegraph

The Chancellor Philip Hammond should take the opportunity of lower than expected borrowing to build up a Brexit buffer in an effort to safeguard the UK against future economic shocks, according to an economist at major accountancy firm PwC. The Spring Statement, due to be delivered by Mr Hammond on Tuesday is expected to confirm that public borrowing has significantly undershot the prediction of £49.9bn from the Office for Budget Responsibility. - Telegraph

Royal Dutch Shell is planning to deepen its stake in the US shale renaissance with a $10bn (£7.2bn) joint takeover of BHP’s American shale division. The Anglo-Dutch energy giant is reportedly working alongside Blackstone, a US private equity firm, on a joint bid for the business which was put on the block last year. - Telegraph

Aviva was accused yesterday of considering “very aggressive action” against thousands of retail investors after it said it may buy back their lucrative bonds without paying a premium. If the insurer goes ahead with the plan it will be the second big UK financial institution to take such action against the will of many investors, though Lloyds only managed to after a long battle with investors who took their case to the Supreme Court. - The Times

Two leaders of Saudi Aramco, set to announce the location of what is expected to be the biggest company flotation in history, suggested it will not be decided until at least the second half of 2018, or even early next year. Speaking at the Saudi-UK CEO forum on Thursday, Amin Nasser, president and chief executive of Saudi Aramco said: “With regard to the IPO, I think all the requirements for Saudi Aramco will be completed by the second half of 2018. The question of when and where it is will be answered then.” - Telegraph

Ministers have rejected calls for a “latte levy” on takeaway coffee cups to reduce the amount of waste they create. Mary Creagh, the chair of the environmental audit committee, accused the government of talking warm words but taking no action after ministers refused to adopt a charge on throwaway coffee cups similar to the plastic bag levy. - Guardian

A late afternoon warning from the owner of the Bargain Booze stores that a material error in its financial forecasts means its profit will be £5.2 million less than expected wiped more than £300 million off its stock market value. Shares in Conviviality plunged by almost 60 per cent in little over an hour in London to close at 123p after an unexpected late trading update yesterday afternoon. - The Times

WagamamaTGI FridaysMarriott Hotels and Karen Millen are among the companies named and shamed by the government for failing to pay the legal minimum wage. The latest list, published by the Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy, names 179 employers for failing to pay a record 9,200 workers £1.1m collectively. - Guardian

The government is set to offer around 1 million NHS staff a 6.5% pay rise over the next three years but is insisting that health workers give up a day’s holiday in return for the £3.3bn deal. Ministers hope they are close to finalising a package to give NHS personnel in England their first meaningful pay rise since 2010, after months of behind-the-scenes talks with union leaders. - Guardian

More than 2,500 jobs are at risk after a Canadian company pulled out of a deal to buy a number of public sector contracts from Carillion. Brookfield Global Integrated Solutions, a property manager, said last month that the jobs would be saved after it picked up contracts held by the failed outsourcing company. The jobs were linked to hospitals, education, transport, emergency services and justice. - The Times

A Labour government will champion business by ensuring small companies get the long-term investment and start-up risk capital they need, the shadow chancellor has pledged. John McDonnell set out the party’s pitch to a sceptical business community yesterday by promising to make finance “the servant of the real economy” and guarantee that companies can always access the credit for growth. - The Times

 

 

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