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Mar 9, 2018

Evening Euro Markets Bulletin

 
ADVFN III Evening Euro Markets Bulletin
Daily world financial news Friday, 09 March 2018 20:16:35
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London close: Korean breakthrough, US jobs data buoy shares
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Shares finished at their best level of the session, amid optimism around the situation on the Korean peninsula, and after a bumper US non-farm payrolls report for February boosted copper and oil futures which in turn lifted shares of miners and oilers.

In a break with the standard practice of the past few decades, overnight US President Trump agreed to meet by next May with Kim Jong for talks about its nuclear weapons, something North Korea had been seeking with an American president for more than 20 years.

"It's been a fairly good week for European equity markets [...] This week's gains do need to be put in the context of the bigger declines seen at the end of last week, which saw the FTSE100 and the DAX open this week at one year lows.

"The rebounds this week have also been helped, particularly in Asia, by last night's reports that US President Trump would be meeting North Korean leader Kim Jong Un with a view to discussing nuclear de-escalation, in a historic move. While there is plenty of cynicism about how this might play out, the fact that we are talking about a historic meeting when six months ago there was talk of nuclear war must surely be progress," said CMC Markets UK's Michael Hewson.

Earlier, London stocks had wavered, with investors erring on the side of caution as data revealed that the UK construction sector suffered its biggest monthly drop in six years in January.

Against that backdrop, the FTSE 100 finished 0.30% up on the day at 7,224.51, while the pound was 0.33% higher against the US dollar and by 0.22% versus the euro at 1.3861 and 1.1243, respectively.

US job growth printed at 313,000 for last month, alongside upwards revisions to data for the prior two months, dwarfing economists' forecasts for an increase of 195,000.

In reaction, by the closing bell front month Brent crude oil futures were climbing 2.56% to $65.28 a barrel on the ICE, while three-month LME copper advanced to $6,862 per metric tonne amid short-coverinig by traders.

Data released earlier by the Office for National Statistics showed construction output declined 3.4% in January from December, coming in far worse than expectations of a 0.3% drop and marking the biggest month-on-month slide since June 2012.

Samuel Tombs, chief UK economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, said: "Rising interest rates and Brexit uncertainty are proving to be a toxic combination for the construction sector. The sharp decline in output in January primarily reflected an 8.3% month-to-month collapse in new work in the private housing sector.

"We doubt that housebuilding will recover fully soon; the housing activity index of the construction PMI rose only to 51.2 in February, having fallen to 48.1 in January from 55.3 in December. The prospect of further increases in interest rates is subduing buyer demand both for new and existing homes."

Meanwhile, industrial production rose 1.3% on the month in January after falling by the same amount in December, missing expectations for a 1.5% jump. Manufacturing output increased by just 0.1% on the month, down from the 0.3% growth recorded in December and short of the 0.2% forecast. This meant the three-month on three-month growth rate slowed to 0.9% from 1.3%.

In corporate news, satellite operator Inmarsat fell after saying it would be cutting its annual dividend to 20 cents a share as it cited “the lack of visibility” over future cash payments from US partner Ligado beyond the end of 2018 and the need to take advantage of the growing in-flight wi-fi market.

Renewi slumped after the waste-to-products business said a review of contracts in its waste management division would lead to additional write-downs worth a £73m.

Building products supplier SIG dropped as it reported a 10% decline in underlying profits and cash flow shrinking by a third as the UK market becomes "increasingly challenging".

On the upside, sports betting and gaming company GVC Holdings, which received shareholder approval for its merger with Ladbrokes Coral this week, rallied as posted a rise in full-year adjusted profit and net gaming revenue, thanks in part to the acquisition of Bwin.

In broker note action, Smurfit Kappa was upgraded to 'hold' at Kepler Cheuvreux, Esure was lifted to 'outperform' by RBC Capital Markets and G4S was upgraded to 'hold' at SEB Equities.

Meanwhile, Pennon and Severn Trent were boosted to 'overweight' at JPMorgan and Acacia Mining and Centamin were initiated at 'sell' and 'hold', respectively, by Berenberg.

 


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Europe close: Stocks mostly higher after latest US jobs report
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Stocks finished off their lows of the session, helped by a strong US jobs report for February and news of a possible thawing in relations between the US and North Korea.

Indeed, on Friday afternoon the US Department of Labor reported that non-farm payrolls in the States jumped by 313,000 last month, dwarfing economists' forecasts calling for a gain of 195,000.

Thus, by the closing bell the benchmark Stoxx 600 had advanced by 0.43% or 1.62 points to 378.24, alongside a dip of 0.07% or 8.89 points in the German Dax to 12,346.68, while the Cac-40 was up by 0.39% or 20.30 points to 5,274.40.

Meanwhile, euro/dollar was 0.17% lower to 1.2294, while the yield on the German 10-year Bund was bouncing back by two basis points and at 0.65%, following the prior session's sharp drop after the European Central Bank sounded a more dovish than expected note.

Furthermore, overnight the White House announced the US president had agreed to meet the North Korean dictator before May, helping to boost sentiment.

Investors also drew a degree of comfort from news that for now the White House had granted Canada and Mexico an exemption from the steel and aluminium tariffs that were set to enter into effect in a fortnight's time.

"This week's gains do need to be put in the context of the bigger declines seen at the end of last week, which saw the FTSE100 and the DAX open this week at one year lows.

"The rebounds this week have also been helped, particularly in Asia, by last night's reports that US President Trump would be meeting North Korean leader Kim Jong Un with a view to discussing nuclear de-escalation, in a historic move," said Michael Hewson, chief market analyst at CMC Markets UK.

Economic data was on the soft side at the end of the week.

French industrial production fell back sharply in January, falling by 2.0% when compared to December, with declines seen across all the main categories, led by falls in Mining and Construction output of 6.7% and 7.6%, respectively, INSEE said.

Spanish industrial production was also weaker, shrinking by an outsized 2.6% during the same month (consensus: 0.1%) as energy ouput fell back by an outsized 7.5%, although production of capital goods also weakened, falling by 2.3%, according to INE.

German industrial production undershot forecasts as well, with the country's Ministry of Finance reporting a dip of 0.1% month-on-month (consensus: 0.5%).

In the corporate space, Airbus was again making headlines, with Bloomberg reporting that India's largest carrier, IndiGo, might be set to purchase up to 50 SE A330 wide-body jets from the Leiden, Netherlands-based manufacturer.

Further South, according to analysts at Banco Sabadell, Telefonica could generate €8.4bn by selling its German arm, which would help to accelerate its attempts delever its balance sheet.

Banco Sabadell stuck to a 'buy' recommendation for the shares.

 


US open: Stocks start higher after bumper February jobs report

Wall Street opened in the green on Friday, after the latest non-farm payrolls report showed that the US added more jobs in February than it had in the last 18 months.

At 1520 GMT, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 0.87%, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq pushing ahead 0.90% and 0.97%, respectively.

Strikingly, the Philadelphia Stock Exchange's Semiconductor Index was ahead by 4.36%.

In another boost to sentiment, overnight it emerged that Donald Trump has agreed to meet with Kim Jong Un by May for talks about its nuclear weapons, something North Korea has been seeking with an American president for more than 20 years.

James Hughes, chief market analyst at AxiTrader, said, "This was announced just after the President announced the tariffs he is imposing, which do give exemption to Canada and Mexico, which was rumoured. There are still negotiations over the tariffs and other possible exemptions, so as normal everything is still pretty unclear.

"I'm surprised we haven't seen more of a market reaction to the North Korean story, with stocks finishing higher but without any real clear direction. This could well have been offset by the tariff news as the announcement has bought widespread condemnation from all quarters. The feeling is that, with the President looking to shift on tariffs if nations produce reciprocal tax changes, there could be a lot on uncertainty as to how well this will work, and with talks of retaliatory tariffs from Europe this could get uglier. Paul Ryan has been one of the most vocal about his condemnation of the tariff plan, someone who usually keeps his condemnation to himself for the sake of the party," he added.

On the economic data front, the US economy added 313,000 new jobs during February, the biggest gain in a year and a half.

Following on from big job gains in January and December, February's hiring increase blew past analysts' expectations for an increase of 222,000, but despite the massive uptick in hiring, wage growth was unable to keep up as average hourly pay rose by just 0.1% month-on-month and the 12-month increase in pay slipped to 2.6% from January's downwardly revised figure of 2.8%.

However, the strong report meant that the Federal Reserve would almost certainly raise interest rates when senior officials meet later in March.

"With the US economy at virtually full employment, the fear is higher wages will continue to drive inflation, forcing the US Fed to hike interest rates faster and higher than Wall Street would like," said James Ingram, an investment manager at MB Capital.

"An interest rate hike in March from the US Fed must now be all but nailed on," he added.

Perhaps, but with implications in the opposite direction, on Friday evening Chicago Fed chief Charles Evans told Bloomberg TV that inflation at 2.5% could be compatible with a 'symmetric' target for price stability.

The US unemployment rate was unchanged at a 17-year low of 4.1%.

In corporate news, Big Lots was 12.40% lower after the retailer posted its fourth-quarter earnings.

 


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Friday broker round-up

esureRBC Capital Markets upgrades to outperform with a target price of 275p.

 

CentaminBerenberg reiterates hold with a target price of 156p.

Acacia MiningBerenberg reiterates sell with a target price of 140p.

LSE groupBerenberg reiterates buy with a target price of 4,690p.

Hiscox ltdBerenberg reiterates buy with a target price of 1,630p.

AvivaCitigroup reiterates buy.

BiffaCitigroup reiterates neutral with a target price of 230p.

Lloyds Banking groupDeutsche Bank reiterates buy with a target price of 80p.

GKNDeutsche Bank reiterates buy.

Paddy Power BetfairDeutsche Bank reiterates buy.

St James' placeDeutsche Bank reiterates hold.

Burberry groupRBC Capital Markets reiterates underperform with a target price of 1,600p.

Rolls RoyceJP Morgan reiterates neutral with a target price of 950p.

SalvarxNorthland reiterates buy with a target price of 180p.

Virgin Money holdingsBerenberg reiterates hold with a target price of 300p.

GVCBerenberg reiterates buy with a target price of 1,200p.

 

 

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