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Mar 29, 2018

Evening Euro Markets Bulletin

 
ADVFN III Evening Euro Markets Bulletin
Daily world financial news Thursday, 29 March 2018 20:39:21
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London close: FTSE rallies into month-end as GKN submits to Melrose bid
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Far from a quiet stroll ahead of the long Easter weekend, Thursday’s session saw the tense conclusion of the soap opera-style GKN/Melrose will-they-won't-they drama, while a deluge of economic data and regulatory decisions to kept investors gripped down to the wire.

 

The FTSE 100 index closed just 11.87 points higher or 0.17% at 7,056.61, after a late dose of volatility. The pound was down 0.3% against the dollar at 1.4031 and down 0.2% on the euro 1.1409.

After almost three months of tit-for-tat exchanges, GKN shareholders accepted the £8.1bn hostile bid from turnaround specialist Melrose Industries. Just half an hour before the close, FTSE 250-listed Melrose said that it received valid acceptances representing around 52.4% of the voting rights of FTSE 100-listed GKN. Melrose had recently lowered its acceptance condition for the takeover to 50% plus one share.

Not long after, the GKN board, grudgingly and still insisting to the very last that the offer "fundamentally undervalues" the business, said it "now recommends that, in the event that the offer is declared wholly unconditional by Melrose, shareholders accept the offer".

Earlier in more M&A news, Michael Spencer's NEX agreed to be taken over by Chicago's CME Group for £3.9bn in cash and shares. CME will pay 500p in cash and 0.0444 new shares for each NEX share, which values NEX 1000p per share, a high-ball bid that analysts suggested could be big enough to deter rivals such as LSE or ICE from gatecrashing.

There was also late drama for Barclays, as the bank settled its long-running case with America's Department of Justice over its conduct involving residential mortgage-backed securities in the run-up to the financial crisis. The lender has agreed to pay the DoJ $2.0bn (£1.42bn) in civil penalties in exchange for the dismissal of the US government's complaint, which was slightly less than the £1.5bn expected.

The morning had seen a barrage of UK data confirming economic growth slowed at the end of last year but accompanied by more timely figures on the services sector, consumer spending and borrowing suggested there could be a first quarter pick-up.

UK gross domestic product grew 0.4% in the fourth quarter of 2017 compared to the third, the Office for National Statistics said in its final reading on the measure, in line with its second estimate a month ago. GDP growth slowed to 1.4% compared to the same quarter a year before from 1.8% in the third quarter, also as expected.

Figures from the Bank of England showed that consumers and businesses borrowed at a faster rate in February, suggesting a firming of confidence in the economy after a shaky few months.

Consumer credit rose by £1.6bn, up from £1.3bn in January and more than the £1.5bn six-month average. Net lending to non-financial companies showed a sharp jump, rising by £1.7bn after virtually flatlining in January. February’s figure was more than three times the six-month average of £500m. The annual rate of growth picked up to 3.2% from 3%.

Ian Stewart, chief economist at Deloitte, said: "Household spending power has been flatlining for the last two years. That has forced consumers to run down savings and borrow more just to sustain sluggish growth in spending.

"2018 should offer some relief, with falling inflation and stronger wage growth helping boost consumer spending power."

Earlier, the latest survey from Gfk revealed that the UK consumer is feeling slightly more confident about personal finances and the general economic situation as recent improvements in wage growth and inflation boost spirits.

The long-running consumer confidence index from GfK climbed three points over the month of March but still remained negative at -7, worse than at this stage last year. However, all five of the constituent measures improved in March compared to February and January.

Meanwhile, mortgage lender Nationwide’s survey for March showed that house price growth unexpectedly slowed.

Prices were up 2.1% on the year, slowing down from a 2.2% increase in February and below the 2.6% gain expected by economists. On the month, house prices fell 0.2% and although this was better than the 0.4% decline seen the month before, analysts had been expecting a 0.2% increase.

London was the worst-performing region again, with average house prices down 1% compared with a year ago.

Going back to the company news, Sky announced late in the day that its Italian arm has agreed a long-term deal with Open Fiber to launch a fibre broadband service from summer 2019, to drive long-term growth in fibre and Pay-TV services.

Shire was in the red despite saying it has gained regulatory acceptances from the EU and Canada for its lanadelumab treatment for hereditary angioedema. Earlier in the week, its shares rallied as it emerged that Japan’s Takeda was considering making an offer for the group.

Credit Suisse said there were several obstacles to a Takeda bid but suggested other bidders could include Pfizer, which has the required scale as well an interest in haemophilia and rare diseases.

Indivior got a shot in the arm from new of a license agreement agreed with UK-based drug discovery outfit C4X Discovery Holdings, whereby Indivior UK obtained exclusive global rights to develop and commercialise C4X's oral orexin-1 receptor antagonist programme.

Elsewhere, Compass Group was on the back foot as French peer Sodexo cut its full-year sales guidance.

Moneysupermarket gained ground as it agreed to buy home communications and mobile phone comparison business Decision Tech for £40m.

Qinetiq was up as its pre-close trading statement met expectations, while IP Group rallied on the back of its full-year numbers.

JD Wetherspoon was down after alcohol supplier Conviviality, a major wholesaler to pubs and off licences, said it plans to call in the administrators.

In broker note action, Morrisons was upgraded to ‘outperform’ at Bernstein, while WH Smith was lifted to ‘buy’ at Stifel. Citi upgraded Cineworld to ‘buy’ and Peel Hunt bumped Electrocomponents up to ‘add’. SIG was raised to ‘equalweight’ at Barclays.

However, Ted Baker was downgraded to ‘hold’ by Jefferies and Provident Financial was hit by a downgrade to ‘sell’ at Berenberg.

InterContinental Hotels, 888 Holdings, Bovis Homes, British Land, CLS Holdings, Prudential, Sanne, Ferrexpo and Softcat were among the companies whose stock went ex-dividend on Thursday.


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Top 10 FTSE 100 Risers

# NameChange PctChangeCur Price
1Morrison+2.21%+4.60213.10
2Anglo American+2.16%+35.001,651.80
3Marks & Spencer+2.10%+5.60272.80
4International Consolidated Airlines Group +1.78%+10.60607.60
5Easyjet Plc+1.72%+27.001,593.00
6BHP Billiton+1.64%+22.601,399.60
7Imperial Brands+1.58%+38.002,445.00
8Rio Tinto+1.56%+55.003,578.00
9Sainsbury+1.45%+3.40237.90
10Legal & General Group+1.44%+3.70261.10

Top 10 FTSE 100 Fallers

# NameChange PctChangeCur Price
1Compass Group-2.32%-34.501,450.50
2Paddy Power Betfair-1.58%-115.007,170.00
3Shire Plc-1.51%-53.003,447.00
4Prudential-1.36%-25.001,814.00
5WPP Plc-1.32%-15.001,123.50
6Intercontinental Hotels Group-1.06%-46.004,298.00
7AstraZeneca -0.83%-41.004,903.00
8Smith & Nephew-0.80%-10.751,338.75
9Merlin Entertainments Plc-0.77%-2.70347.90
10Johnson Matthey-0.68%-21.003,071.00

Daily cryptocurrency Tracker 27.3.18: Bitcoin dips below $8,000

The bearish trend in the cryptocurrency market continued over the past 24 hours, as 47 of the top 50 cryptos registered losses. Of the top 10 cryptos, NEO suffered the heaviest losses, declining more than 14%. Other cryptos, such as Ethereum, Litecoin and Stellar also registered double-digit losses. At the time of writing, Bitcoin was seen more than 6.5% lower, trading below the $8,000 mark.

Read More...


Europe close: Stocks finish bruising quarter with a whimper
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Stocks across the Continent got a slight reprieve at quarter-end, following a bruising first three months of the year that saw German stocks drop into a correction after suffering a double-digit fall from their most recent highs.

Somewhat ironically, that came amid a spate of news regarding billion of dollars-worth of cross-broder corporate deals that were in the final stages or in the offing, putting the pace of mergers and acquisitions globally in the first quarter on track to reach a record level of over a trillion dollars.

Also worth noting, in remarks to Bloomberg TV, US Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross appeared to hold out the possibility of restarting the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership talks.

Nevertheless, some analysts were cautious regarding the technical backdrop for markets, given how some of the key US stockmarket indices were still hovering quite close to important levels of 'support' which it was feared that, if lost, might see losses quickly ensue.

As of the closing bell, the benchmark Stoxx 600 was ahead by 0.44% or 1.61 points to 370.87, alongside a 1.31% or 156.02 point rise for the German Dax to 12,096.73 and a 0.36% or 79.79 point gain on the FTSE Mibtel to 22,411.15.

However, for the first quarter as a whole the Pan-European Stoxx 600 was left nursing losses of 4.6% and of 8.0% from its late January highs, while the Dax was down by 6.4% and by 10.8% from the all-time high of 12,917.64 reached on 23 January.

Over that same time frame, the yield on the benchmark 10-year bund rose seven basis points to 0.50%, while that on similarly-dated French bonds fell back by the same amount to 0.79%.

Despite those sharp losses for stocks, and as the FT pointed out earlier in the day, at over $1.2trn dealmaking activity ran at a record pitch over the first three months of the year and was roughly a third higher than in the first quarter of 2007, when it hit its previous record.

Underscoring the above, as the current first quarter drew to a close, investors were greeted first thing on Thursday morning by a Bloomberg report that Renault and Nissan were busy in talks aimed at going beyond their current cross shareholdings in each other and thrashing out a full merger.

That followed the previous session's announcement of a possible bid from Takeda Pharmaceuticals for London-listed Shire, the purchase overnight of RSP Permian by US rival Concho Resources in a $9.5bn deal and CME Group's acquisition of Nex Group for roughly £3.9bn.

On the economic front, German unemployment declined by 19,000 people in March (consensus: -15,000), pushing the jobless rate down to 5.3%.

Also in Germany, the Ministry of Finance reported that harmonised consumer prices only rose at a 1.5% year-on-year pace in March, short of economists' projections for an acceleration to 1.6%.


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US open: Stocks bounce back at quarter-end

Stocks are registering modest gains at quarter-end, helped by record-breaking levels of deal-making.

At 1530 BST, the Dow Jones Industrials Average was adding 0.46% or 108.31 points to trade at 23,957.94, alongside a rise of 0.46% or 11.42 points on the S&P 500 to 2,636.34 and a 0.35% or 27.46 point gain for the Nasdaq Composite to 6,976.53.

Pacing gains in New York were: Marine Transportation (3.57%), Drug retailers (2.85%), Iron&Steel (2.43%), Internet (2.01%) and Heavy Construction (1.90%).

Alongside those advancers, the CBoE's volatility index was coming down by 6.12% to 21.47.

Despite the slight gains on offer, CMC Markets analyst Michael Hewson said: "Looking back over recent events, as we come to the end of what will be a negative month, and a negative quarter for stocks, it’s probably an opportune time to analyse recent events to determine how we got here. The quarter started in such a promising fashion with new records as well as multi year highs being set, as January came and went.

"The passing of tax reform proposals in the US should have been the catalyst for further gains, along with an improving jobs market and rising wages, while economic activity indicators across Europe were at much higher levels than they are now. Since then the wheels have come off to a certain extent, and as we head into Q2 investors will have to decide over the Easter break whether the worst is over or whether there is more to come."

Dealmaking surpasses Q1 2017 record

Corporate dealmaking volumes rose past $1.2trn over the first quarter of 2018, marking the fastest start ever in M&A for a year, the FT reported, citing Thomson Reuters data.

Activity ws 67% higher versus 2017 and roughly a third more than in 2007, when the previous record was set.

Underscoring the intensity of recent M&A, overnight CME Group clinched a deal to buy NEX Group for £3.9bn. It came alongside the acquisition of RSP Permian by Concho Resources for $8.0bn.

In other corporate news, Constellation Brands was higher after the release of its fourth-quarter results, which saw the company lift its dividend by 42%.

GameStop's shares on the other hand were down by nearly 12% after the video game retailer issued full-year earnings per share guidance the midpoint of which, at $3.18, was well below the $3.32 analysts polled by FactSet had penciled-in.

Meanwhile, Amazon.com was down by a further 1.49% after the US president again took aim at the internet retailer on Twitter.

Stock in Facebook was trading 3.71% higher at $158.71.

In economic news, the Department of Labor reported a 12,000 person drop in the number of initial weekly unemployment claims to reach 215,000 (consensus: 230,000), sparking talk of a drop in the rate of unemployment below 4%.

Separately, the Department of Commerce said real personal spending was flat in February after dipping by 0.2% in the month before, as Americans rebuilt their depleted personal savings after a surge in spending at the end of 2017. Nevertheless, personal income and spending printed in-line with forecasts last month, at up by 0.4% and 0.2%, respectively.

The latest readings on MNI's Chicago purchasing managers' index and the University of Michigan's consumer confidence index came in shy of forecasts.


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Crypto Currencies
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7,533.00
#2 Ethereum (ETH)
change
-6.78%
mktcap
40.8B
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414.81
#3 Ripple (XRP)
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#4 Bitcoin Cash / BCC (BCH)
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#5 Litecoin (LTC)
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6.73B
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8411.52T
price
121.75

Thursday broker round-up

Provident financial: Berenberg downgrades to sell with a target price of 550p.

Boohoo: Deutsche Bank reiterates buy.

BT Group plc: Deutsche Bank reiterates hold.

Shire plc: Deutsche Bank reiterates buy.

Moneysupermarket: Shore Capital Markets reiterates buy.

GVS Holdings: Canaccord reiterates buy with a target price of 1,070p.

Midwich group: Canaccord reiterates buy with a target price of 660p.

Mortgage Advice Bureau: Canaccord reiterates buy with a target price of 645p.

Savannah Resources: Northland Capital Markets reiterates corporate.

Keras Resources: Northland Capital Markets reiterates corporate.

DFS Furniture: Numis reiterates hold with a target price of 195p.

Hastings: Numis reiterates add with a target price of 295p.

RPC Group: Numis reiterates buy with a target price of 1,130p.

Ted Baker: Jefferies downgrades to hold with a target price of 2,700p.

Ten Entertainment Group plc: Berenberg reiterates buy with a target price of 300p.

TBC Bank Group: Berenberg reiterates buy with a target price of 2,025p.

Spire Healthcare Group: Berenberg reiterates buy with a target price of 290p.

Next plc: Berenberg reiterates sell with a target price of 3,800p.

 

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