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Mar 12, 2018

Morning Euro Markets Bulletin

 
ADVFN  Morning Euro Markets Bulletin
Daily world financial news Monday, 12 March 2018 10:50:41
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London open: Stocks edge higher; Melrose sweetens bid for GKN
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London stocks nudged up in early trade on Monday, failing to really build on the gains seen on Wall Street at the end of last week as investors mulled over news that London house prices have slumped over the last year, while M&A was in focus as Melrose sweetened its hostile bid for GKN.

At 0840 GMT, the FTSE 100 was up 0.1% to 7,230.61, while the pound was up 0.1% against the dollar to 1.3970 and flat versus the euro at 1.1250.

On Friday, the Nasdaq hit a record high as US stocks rallied on the back of solid jobs data, which revealed the perfect combination of a much stronger-than-expected non-farm payrolls number and a worse-than-expected wage growth reading.

Rebecca O’Keeffe, head of investment at Interactive Investor, said: "Recent market wobbles have all been connected to the possibility of stronger US inflation which could cause the Federal Reserve to raise rates faster than the market anticipates and end the nine-year equity party. Confirmation that there is a resurgence in the number of Americans joining the labour force, increasing the participation rate, is a huge boost to US production prospects and growth without the downside risk of wage inflation. Not too hot, not too cold; Goldilocks appears to be alive and well."

But investors were also digesting uninspiring news that house prices in some parts of London have fallen as much as 15% in the last year. Figures from estate agency YourMove revealed that house prices in Wandsworth dropped by more than £100,000 in the last 12 months.

On the corporate front, turnaround specialist Melrose Industries was on the back foot as it upped its offer for engineer GKN to 467p per share, or £8.1bn from £7.4bn. The sweetened 'final' offer comes after GKN announced on Friday that it had agreed to combine its automotive business, Driveline, with US-based Dana in a deal valued at around $6.1bn.

Polymetal International was in the red as it said net profit declined 10% in 2017.

Generic drug-maker Hikma Pharmaceuticals also retreated after saying it will carry out a clinical trial of its generic version of GlaxoSmithKline's Advair Diskus asthma drug after consultation with the US drug regulator.

AstraZeneca was little changed as it said it has pushed back the expected completion of the Phase III 'Mystic' clinical trial of its Imfinzi immunotherapy treatment of non-small cell lung cancer.

Petrofac gushed higher as it was awarded a lump-sum 27-month engineering, procurement and construction (EPC) contract by Bharat Petroleum Corporation (BCPL) valued at around $135m.

Clarksons edged up as it posted a 12% jump in full-year underlying pre-tax profit amid early signs of a recovery across shipping markets.

In broker note action, Just Eat was downgraded to ‘sell’ at Deutsche Bank, while Smurfit Kappa was cut to ‘neutral’ at UBSAveva was downgraded to ‘neutral’ at Citi and Virgin Money was reduced to ‘hold’ at Jefferies.

Cairn Energy was lifted to ‘overweight’ by Morgan Stanley, while CYBG was upped to ‘buy’ at Jefferies.

 


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Europe open: M&A helps Dax overcome political and trade concerns
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Stocks have started the session with slight gains, tracking the strength seen in the main equity indices on Wall Street last Friday and buoyed by news of a major move to consolidate Germany's energy space.

Nevertheless, international trade discussions between the major powers were still very much front and centre on investors' radars, with American and European officials said to be preparing for talks during the week.

Markets were also keeping a close eye on multiple developments on the political front, both overseas, such as the decision by China's Communist Party to allow president Xi Jinping to serve more than two terms, and politics in Italy, among other tension spots on the Continent.

Against that backdrop, as of 0940 GMT the benchmark Stoxx 600 was ahead by 0.33% or 1.26 points at 379.50, alongside a 0.70% or 86.92 point jump on the German Dax to 12,435.13.

Out on the periphery meanwhile, Spain's Ibex 35 was rising by 0.63% or 60.90 points to 9,747.40.

No major economic releases were scheduled for Monday, although at their regularly-scheduled Monday meeting euro area finance ministers were expected to discuss the fourth review of Greece's aid programme and to continue talks on 'deepening' Economic and Monetary Union.

Party leaders of Italy's PD were also set to meet starting from around 1400 GMT to analyse their poor electoral result and to decide whether to start coalition talks.

Reflecting on all of the above, Michael Hewson, chief market analyst at CMC Markets UK, said: "While US markets appear to have recovered some of their mojo, the same cannot be said for markets in Europe which are struggling to rebound meaningfully from their recent lows.

"Concerns abound with respect to the political backdrop in Europe with Italy now replacing Germany as a potential pressure point. There is also the fact that recent economic data has shown that the vibrant growth story of the past few months in Europe may well be starting to slow, at precisely the time that the European Central Bank is looking at easing off the monetary accelerator."

M&A was the chief factor behind gains in Germany's top flight index as shares of E.OnRWE and Innogy leapt higher after the former two of those companies unveiled a complex cross shareholding plan that would see RWE recover some renewable energy assets, with both companies contributing the necessary financing in order to buy out Innogy's retail investors.

At the pan-European level meanwhile, the Stoxx 600 utility index was climbing 1.63% to 280.36.

In other company news, a consortium including Air France-KLM, Delta Air Lines and India's Jet Airways was reportedly looking into making a bid for Air India. The news came on the heels of French President Emmanuel Macron's visit to New Delhi at the weekend.

Corporate activity was also in the headlines in the UK, with Melrose sweetening its bid for GKN from £7.4bn to £8.1bn.


US close: Stocks jump as wage growth misses, alongside bumper non-farm payrolls

Wall Street finished firmly in the green on Friday, after the latest non-farm payrolls report showed that the US added more jobs in February than it had in the last 18 months, even as wage growth ebbed, calming worries that rate-setters on the Potomac need to speed-up their pace of tightening.

By the closing bell, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was up by 1.77% or 440.53 points to 25,335.74, with the S&P 500 adding 1.74% or 47.60 points to 2,788.57 and the Nasdaq Composite pushing ahead 1.79% or 132.86 points to 7,560.51.

For the week, the S&P 500 added 95.32 points.

Strikingly, at one point early in the session the Philadelphia Stock Exchange's Semiconductor Index was jumping by over four percentage points, although it ended up by a more 'modest' 2.08% to 1,431.16.

According to the JournalIntel Corp. has pondered the possibility of a bid for Broadcom if it succeeds in its hostile takeover of rival Qualcomm.

Shares of bank also performed well, with the KBW sector gauge tacking on 2.20% to finish at 116.10.

In another boost to sentiment, overnight it emerged that Donald Trump has agreed to meet with Kim Jong Un by May for talks about its nuclear weapons, something North Korea has been seeking with an American president for more than 20 years.

That appeared to help offset concerns on the international trade front.

James Hughes, chief market analyst at AxiTrader, said, "This was announced just after the President announced the tariffs he is imposing, which do give exemption to Canada and Mexico, which was rumoured. There are still negotiations over the tariffs and other possible exemptions, so as normal everything is still pretty unclear."

On the economic data front, the US economy added 313,000 new jobs during February, the biggest gain in a year and a half.

Following on from big job gains in January and December, February's hiring increase blew past analysts' expectations for an increase of 222,000, but despite the massive uptick in hiring, wage growth was unable to keep up as average hourly pay rose by just 0.1% month-on-month and the 12-month increase in pay slipped to 2.6% from January's downwardly revised figure of 2.8%.

However, the strong report meant that the Federal Reserve would almost certainly raise interest rates when senior officials meet later in March.

"With the US economy at virtually full employment, the fear is higher wages will continue to drive inflation, forcing the US Fed to hike interest rates faster and higher than Wall Street would like," said James Ingram, an investment manager at MB Capital.

"An interest rate hike in March from the US Fed must now be all but nailed on," he added.

Perhaps, but with implications in the opposite direction, on Friday evening Chicago Fed chief Charles Evans told Bloomberg TV that inflation at 2.5% could be compatible with a 'symmetric' target for price stability.

The US unemployment rate was unchanged at a 17-year low of 4.1%.

Reacting to all of the above, the yield on the benchmark 10-year US Treasury note added four basis points to 2.89%, capping its first one-week advance in three. At the two-year tenor, the yield on benchmark Treasuries was one basis point higher to 2.26%.

In corporate news, Big Lots was 10.09% lower after the retailer posted its fourth-quarter earnings.

From a sector standpoint, the best performance was seen in the following industry groups: Reinsurers (3.59%), Railroads (3.50%) and Asset Managers (3.16%).

Meanwhile, in other asset classes, the US spot dollar index edged lower by 0.10% to 90.09, while front month West Texas Intermediate rose 3.33% to $62.12 a barrel on the NYMEX.


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Monday newspaper round-up: London house prices, Visa data, Help to Buy

House prices in parts of London that were once at the epicentre of the UK property boom have fallen as much as 15% over the past year in fresh evidence of the impact of the EU referendum. Figures from Your Move, one of the UK’s biggest estate agency chains, reveal that the average home in Wandsworth – which includes much of Clapham, Balham and Putney – fell by more than £100,000 in value over the last 12 months. – Guardian

A chorus of downbeat reports on the health of the British economy published on Monday presents a sharp contrast to the chancellor Phillip Hammond’s spring statement message that there is “light at the end of the tunnel”. Credit card company Visa said spending on cards fell again in February, dropping 1.1%, and that the first quarter of 2018 was on track to be the “worst on record”. It said spending by consumers had fallen in nine out the past 10 months. – Guardian

Product innovation firm CPP, which was hit by a misselling scandal in 2012, is set to re-enter the UK market in the next few months after buying a significant minority stake in KYND, a start-up offering cyber security services to small businesses. The firm has also appointed a new managing director Michael Whitfield. Mr Whitfield was previously acting executive chairman at specialist EU insurer Building Block. – Telegraph

The Government flagship housing policy, Help to buy needs to be dramatically reformed in order to stop housebuilders from using it to boost their profits irrespective of how many homes they build, according Northern firm Avant Homes. The scheme, which is intended support would-be first time buyers in their efforts to get on the housing ladder, must be dramatically changed in order to encourage a “social conscience” among housebuilders, the housebuilder said. – Telegraph

Nearly 400 retailers, including big high street chains, could struggle to meet higher interest payments this year, a City financial analyst has warned. A study by Company Watch of 1,600 retailers with assets of at least £5 million has identified 392 in its “warning area”, suggesting that they are about 25 times more likely to suffer financial distress than their peers. Among them are New Look, Mothercare, Poundland, Debenhams, AO World, DFS and Conviviality. – The Times

London transport officials have banned a French advert urging British businesses to “vote with their feet” and move to France as the UK quits the European Union. A poster campaign encouraging entrepreneurs to “leave post-Brexit fears behind” was blocked because it could be controversial. The Normandy Development Agency had hoped to target London by taking out adverts across the city’s Tube and bus network. In an effort to persuade commuting entrepreneurs to cross the English Channel, the ads featured a fictional newspaper called The Normandy Times, which advises: “You will find the process as smooth as their Camembert . . . or their oysters for that matter.” – The Times

 

 

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