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Mar 21, 2018

Evening Euro Markets Bulletin

 
ADVFN III Evening Euro Markets Bulletin
Daily world financial news Wednesday, 21 March 2018 19:37:25
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London close: Stocks under pressure as pound extends gains
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London stocks slipped on Wednesday as the pound gained ground after UK wage growth was shown to have accelerated more than expected at the start of the year, while a slew of updates from retailers meant the high street was very much in focus.

The FTSE 100 was down 0.32% to 7,038.97, while the pound was up 0.55% against the US dollar at 1.40732 and 0.37% firmer versus the euro at 1.1476.

Data out earlier from the Office for National Statistics showed UK average weekly earnings in the three months to January rose 2.8% compared to UK the same period last year, beating the 2.6% that economists had forecast and up on the figure from a month earlier, which was revised up to 2.7% from 2.6%.

Wages excluding bonuses, the measure that the BoE rate setting committee has been focusing on ahead of this week's policy meeting, revealed wages grew 2.6%, as expected, up from 2.5% previously. On a month-to-month basis, basic wages in January were up just 0.1%, or 1.6% year-on-year, which was the smallest increase since February last year.

Real incomes still remain negative, as pay growth was still lagging the 3% rate of CPI inflation in the three months to January.

The headline ILO unemployment rate for the three month period fell back to 4.3% from 4.4%, though the market expected it to have stayed unchanged. Employment increased by 168,000, double the consensus estimate and the figure from the previous period, while more timely data showed jobless claims in February were up 9,200 after the previous month was revised to a decline of 1,600.

Howard Archer, economic adviser to the EY Item Club, said the data could encourage the MPC to raise interest rates in May.

Archer said the combination of stronger wage growth and further doubts over productivity "are likely to reinforce the hawkish instincts of the MPC and we expect the Committee to use tomorrow's meeting to lay the ground for a May rate hike."

However, Samuel Tombs at Pantheon Macroeconomics pointed out that the headline rate of wage growth exceeded the consensus in January only because bonus payments between November and January rose by 6.2% year-over-year and that basic wages increased by the smallest degree in almost a year.

"We continue to think that wage growth will rise at only a modest pace this year, ensuring that the MPC needs to raise interest rates only by 25bp in 2018," he said.

With the UK jobs data out of the way, investors prepared to shift their attention to the US, where the Fed's rate announcement is due at 1800 GMT, along with a speech from chair Jerome Powell and the central bank's latest economic projections. With a 25 basis points rate hike largely priced in by the market, attention will turn to the 'dot plot' projections to see how many more rate increases are on the cards this year.

In corporate news, B&Q and Screwfix owner Kingfisher slumped as it reported an 8% fall in annual profits on flat sales and issued a very cautious outlook. Retail peers Next and Dunelm were also dragged into the red.

Menswear specialist Moss Bross tumbled as it warned that it now expects profits this year to be "materially lower" than current market expectations, while baby and toddler chain Mothercare reversed earlier gains to trade a touch lower even as it got some much needed breathing space as lenders gave it some breathing space.

It was a cheerier picture for embattled floor coverings retailer Carpetright, however, which gained ground after saying it has secured a £12.5m emergency loan from one of its biggest shareholders, announcing a £40m to £60m cash call and saying it is looking at a company voluntary arrangement to cut rents and close stores.

Elsewhere, GKN ticked up as it branded suitor Melrose Industries a "novice" operator with "no plan" in the latest round of accusations between the companies locked in a hostile bid battle.

Inhaled medicines designer Vectura Group sank after saying that revenue had taken a hit as it focused on R&D, while Ukrainian miner Ferrexpo dropped despite declaring a higher special dividend than most investors may have expected thanks to higher iron ore prices offsetting slightly lower production.

Softcat fell sharply even as the provider of IT infrastructure products and services reported a rise in interim operating profit and revenue and lifted its dividend by 14% amid strong customer demand. Traders pointed out that the stock had rallied strongly into the results.

Oilfield services provider Petrofac advanced as it was awarded a new contract in India valued at around $200m.

In broker note action, 888 Holdings was cut to 'hold' from 'add' by Numis, while Ocado was downgraded to 'neutral' from 'buy' at Goldman Sachs. London Stock Exchange was the standout gainer on the FTSE 100 as Barclays upped its price target on the overweight-rated stock by 6%, saying the market is "unduly pessimistic" on 2019 EBITDA margin.

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19,652.38
 
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Top 10 FTSE 100 Risers

# NameChange PctChangeCur Price
1 Convatec (LSE:CTEC) +3.04% +5.80 196.90
2 Ferguson (LSE:FERG) +1.44% +76.00 5,348.00
3 London Stock Exchange (LSE:LSE) +1.29% +52.00 4,088.00
4 Antofagasta Plc (LSE:ANTO) +1.14% +10.80 955.40
5 Hammerson Plc (LSE:HMSO) +0.96% +5.20 546.80
6 Scottish & Southern Energy (LSE:SSE) +0.91% +11.00 1,223.00
7 RSA Insurance (LSE:RSA) +0.60% +3.80 633.80
8 Direct Line (LSE:DLG) +0.59% +2.30 390.70
9 Sky plc (LSE:SKY) +0.50% +6.50 1,316.50
10 Reckitt Benckiser (LSE:RB.) +0.43% +24.00 5,658.00

Top 10 FTSE 100 Fallers

# NameChange PctChangeCur Price
1 Kingfisher Plc (LSE:KGF) -7.20% -24.30 313.40
2 Micro Focus International (LSE:MCRO) -7.06% -70.00 921.40
3 Whitbread Plc (LSE:WTB) -3.07% -117.00 3,694.00
4 Smurfit Kappa Group (LSE:SKG) -2.70% -82.00 2,960.00
5 Easyjet Plc (LSE:EZJ) -1.88% -31.50 1,648.00
6 G4S (LSE:GFS) -1.70% -4.20 243.50
7 TUI AG (LSE:TUI) -1.59% -25.00 1,543.00
8 Segro Plc (LSE:SGRO) -1.51% -9.40 612.80
9 Next Plc (LSE:NXT) -1.45% -69.00 4,683.00
10 3i Group (LSE:III) -1.44% -13.00 891.40

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Europe close: Stocks end on mix note as traders play it safe ahead of Fed
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Stocks on the Continent ended the session on a mixed note ahead of the US central bank's policy decision, with some traders rather wary of the possibility of further declines in shares given the recent volatility in global capital markets.

Significantly, Bloomberg reported that the chances of a deal between Italy's two main populist parties, the Five Star and the League, on forming a government were rising.

Until recently, the possibilities of such a scenario had been dismissed by analysts, who generally appeared to consider it a risk factor.

Against that backdrop, by the close of trading the benchmark Stoxx 600 index was dipping 0.16% or 0.61 points to 374.96, while the German Dax was up by 0.01% to 12,309.15, while the Cac-40 was off by 0.24% or 12.69 points to 5,239.74.

In parallel, the yield on the benchmark 10-year Italian Treasury note was higher by four basis points at 1.93%.

Separately, Italian daily La Repubblica reported that Silvio Berlusconi might be open to reaching an agreement, in conjunction with his coalition partners from the League, with Five Star.

Commenting on the situation in markets, earlier in the day Michael Hewson at CMC Markets UK told clients: "After a disappointing start to the week European markets rebounded modestly yesterday, however with all the talk of trade wars and plateauing economic data it is becoming apparent that the momentum seen in January has well and truly dissipated.

"Momentum indicators are starting to flash warning signs of further declines, while we saw German investor sentiment in March slip back to an eighteen month low."

Nonetheless, the geopolitical headlines on Wednesday morning appeared to be coming in on the positive side of things, with reports surfacing regarding a possible three-way summit between the US, South Korea and North Korea.

Meanwhile, on Tuesday evening the US president tabled the possibility of a meeting with Russian leader Vladimir Putin in the not too distant future.

Back in the corporate patch, Deutsche Bank's planned flotation of its asset management unit had been oversubscribed by two-and-a-half times, Reuters reported citing a person familiar with the matter.

Another German heayweight, Bayer, also made the headlines after clinching the EU's approval for its $62.5bn takeover of US rival Monsanto.


US open: Stocks up ahead of Fed policy announcement

US stocks moved slightly ahead after the open on Wall Street on Wednesday as investors awaited the latest policy announcement from the Federal Reserve.

At 1530 GMT, Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P 500 were both up 0.26%, while the Nasdaq had gained 0.21%.

The Fed rate announcement is due at 1800 GMT, along with a speech from chair Jerome Powell and the FOMC's updated economic projections.

With the Fed widely expected to hike rates by 25 basis points, the focus will be on the dot plot projections to see how many more rate increases are on the cards this year.

Craig Erlam, senior market analyst at Oanda, said a hike is 94% priced in according to CME Group, so any reaction to this could be relatively muted.

"What will be of much more interest to investors is the economic projections which, aside from offering updated growth and inflation forecasts, will offer crucial insight into how policymakers see interest rates moving.

"The central bank had previously indicated - back in December - that it saw three rate hikes this year but since then Trump's tax reforms have provided an additional tailwind for the economy, one that could lift inflationary pressures and force the central bank to tighten at a slightly faster pace. The comments that we've had from some policymakers since then suggest some are now anticipating a fourth rate hike this year, which should be reflected in the dot plot. How many now fall into that camp will determine how markets respond.

"As it is, markets are already pricing in around three rate hikes this year - 79% priced in according to CME Group - so they're pretty much on the same page as the central bank. A number of policymakers forecasting a fourth may lift this a little as that is only 39% priced in but it may not make a huge difference so any dollar upside could be both limited and short-lived."

In other economic news, sales of US existing homes rose more than expected in February, according to data from the National Association of Realtors.

Sales were up 3% to a seasonally-adjusted annual rate of 5.54m from 5.38m in January, rebounding from a 3.2% drop the month before, beating expectations of a 0.5% increase.

The median price of an existing home was $241,700, up 5.9% from February 2017 and marking the 72nd straight month of year-over-year gains. Meanwhile, total housing inventory was 4.6% higher at 1.59m, but was still down 8.1% compared to a year ago and has fallen year-over-year for 33 consecutive months.

On the corporate front, General Mills was down 8.79% after it posted third-quarter earnings per share of $1.62 versus 61 cents a year ago, as the company's chief executive said he was "disappointed" with revenue.

Motorhomes manufacturer Winnebago dropped 5% after releasing its second-quarter numbers, and Salesforce fell 1.93% after confirming the acquisition of San Francisco-based software company Mulesoft in a $6.5bn deal.

Boston Scientific dipped 0.18% after agreeing to buy Minnesota-based NxThera for up to $406m.

Southwest Airlines flew 5.01% higher after cutting its outlook for first-quarter revenue per available seat mile.

Elsewhere, Facebook had avoided another day of losses in the wake of the latest data scandal with Cambridge Analytica, gaining 1.38% in early trade.

Biotech company Proteostasis Therapeutics gained 3.16% after announcing late on Tuesday that it was cancelling its proposed equity offering due to market conditions.


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Wednesday broker round-up

Ocado Group: Goldman Sachs downgrades to neutral with a target price of 540p.

Low & Bonar plc: Berenberg reiterates hold with a target price of 60p.

Glencore plc: Citigroup reiterates buy with a target price of 410p.

Rio Tinto plc: Citigroup reiterates buy with a target price of 4,050p.

Virgin Money: Citigroup reiterates buy with a target price of 350p.

Admiral: Deutsche Bank reiterates hold with a target price of 2,075p.

De la Rue: JP Morgan reiterates overweight with a target price of 700p.

London Stock Exchange group plc: Barclays reiterates overweight with a target price of 463p.

Cairn Energy: Barclays reiterates overweight with a target price of 290p.

EnQuest: Barclays reiterates underweight with a target price of 24p.

Faroe Petroleum: Barclays reiterates overweight with a target price of 105p.

Premier Oil: Barclays reiterates underweight with a target price of 75p.

Cineworld Group: Canaccord reiterates buy with a target price of 300p.

Mitie Group plc: Canaccord reiterates buy with a target price of 300p.

Ceres Power Holdings plc: Berenberg reiterates buy with a target price of 15p.

Breedon Group plc: Berenberg reiterates buy with a target price of 90p.

Kingfisher: Whitman Howard Research reiterates buy.

 

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