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Mar 5, 2018

Morning Euro Markets Bulletin

 
ADVFN  Morning Euro Markets Bulletin
Daily world financial news Monday, 05 March 2018 11:22:14
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London open: Stocks nudge higher ahead of services PMI
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London stocks nudged just a touch higher in early trade on Monday as fears of a US trade war and concerns about rising inflation continued to play on investors' minds ahead of the latest reading on the UK services sector.

At 0830 GMT, the FTSE 100 was up 0.1% to 7,078.02, while the pound was 0.1% lower versus the dollar at 1.3792 and flat against the euro at 1.1204.

Meanwhile, in Milan the FTSE MIB index was off 0.8% at 21,733.03 as Italy looked set for a hung parliament after voters backed right-wing and populist parties. According to projections based on partial results of the election, the anti-establishment Five Star Movement has won the biggest share of the vote, while ex-Prime Minister Silver Berlusconi's right-wing coalition is on course to win the most seats in the lower house of parliament.

Rebecca O'Keeffe, head of investment at Interactive Investor, said: "Global equity markets are fragile, and investors are wary as the increasing rhetoric over the weekend on tariffs and a potential escalation of a full-blown trade war make it possible that things could get very ugly very quickly. History has not been kind to investors during periods of protectionism and recent tweets suggest that President Trump is leaning in rather than stepping back from threats to unleash a global trade war.

"This all makes it very difficult for investors to know what to do. Any global company could instantly and significantly suffer if its principal products suddenly become subject to retaliatory trade restrictions. Downside risks are therefore widespread and elevated, and it will be tricky to find sectors or companies that offer a genuine safe haven against such risks."

On the data front, results from the UK services PMI survey at 0930 GMT is expected to show a slight improvement to 53.3 in February from 53 the month before.

Housebuilders were in focus as Prime Minister Theresa May was set to reveal a new planning policy framework to force councils to hit house-building targets. According to reports, May is expected to say in a speech in London that developers need to do their bit, with those slow to build new homes at risk of being refused planning permission in future. She's also expected to say that the bonuses being paid to the heads of some of the biggest developers are based not on the number of homes built but on their profits or share price.

"In a market where lower supply equals higher prices, that creates a perverse incentive, one that does not encourage them to build the homes we need," she will say.

Ultra Electronics fell sharply following a damp squib set of annual results and as it revealed that its agreed takeover of US-based rival Sparton has been nixed over competition concerns from the Department of Justice.

Fenner edged down after saying it had bought the assets and business of US-based National Bearings Company, a small specialist manufacturer of custom engineered polymer and metal bearings, for an undisclosed sum.

Paddy Power Betfair slipped as it confirmed that chief financial officer Alex Gersh would leave the company once a successor was found.

Sports betting and gaming group GVC Holdings was a little weaker after agreeing to initially acquire 51% of the equity capital of Mars LLC - doing business as Crystalbet - with a commitment to acquire the remaining 49% in 2021.

On the upside, Morrison and Tesco were the standout gainers, boosted by upgrades to 'buy' at Jefferies.

Wizz Air flew higher after the FTSE 250 low-cost airline reported a 23.5% jump in passenger numbers in February, although the load factor nudged lower.

Ryanair was also trading up after announcing a 5% rise in February as the load factor held steady.

3i Infrastructure ticked higher as it said it was investing another £125m in electricity supplier Infinis to help fund its purchase of independent power generator Alkane Energy.

Elsewhere in broker action, Segro and Unite were higher after upgrades to 'buy' at Stifel, while Travis Perkins was in the black following an upgrade to 'add' at Peel Hunt.

Spectris slipped after a downgrade to 'hold' at Liberum.

 

Market Movers

FTSE 100 (UKX) 7,078.02 0.11%
FTSE 250 (MCX) 19,387.07 0.00%
techMARK (TASX) 3,278.18 -0.24%

FTSE 100 - Risers

Tesco (TSCO) 205.60p 1.78%
Morrison (Wm) Supermarkets (MRW) 225.70p 1.35%
Smurfit Kappa Group (SKG) 2,460.00p 1.23%
Ashtead Group (AHT) 2,023.00p 1.23%
Next (NXT) 4,736.00p 1.20%
Smith (DS) (SMDS) 463.40p 0.78%
BP (BP.) 467.20p 0.67%
SEGRO (SGRO) 576.00p 0.66%
Persimmon (PSN) 2,601.00p 0.66%
Vodafone Group (VOD) 200.30p 0.64%

FTSE 100 - Fallers

Rolls-Royce Holdings (RR.) 806.00p -1.39%
Rentokil Initial (RTO) 270.00p -0.92%
Anglo American (AAL) 1,675.80p -0.70%
BAE Systems (BA.) 572.60p -0.59%
ITV (ITV) 153.15p -0.49%
Prudential (PRU) 1,784.00p -0.36%
TUI AG Reg Shs (DI) (TUI) 1,513.00p -0.33%
Croda International (CRDA) 4,442.00p -0.31%
Antofagasta (ANTO) 840.20p -0.28%
AstraZeneca (AZN) 4,723.00p -0.27%

FTSE 250 - Risers

CLS Holdings (CLI) 227.50p 3.64%
Renewi (RWI) 92.10p 1.88%
Rathbone Brothers (RAT) 2,491.10p 1.59%
Cairn Energy (CNE) 186.30p 1.58%
IP Group (IPO) 111.80p 1.45%
Barr (A.G.) (BAG) 650.00p 1.25%
UK Commercial Property Trust (UKCM) 87.50p 1.04%
Tullow Oil (TLW) 178.00p 1.02%
Syncona Limited NPV (SYNC) 197.80p 1.02%
Sophos Group (SOPH) 489.18p 0.95%

FTSE 250 - Fallers

Ultra Electronics Holdings (ULE) 1,247.00p -15.69%
Clarkson (CKN) 3,201.80p -2.38%
Ferrexpo (FXPO) 298.48p -1.88%
Aveva Group (AVV) 1,794.00p -1.75%
Jardine Lloyd Thompson Group (JLT) 1,268.00p -1.55%
RHI Magnesita N.V. (DI) (RHIM) 4,370.00p -1.35%
Aggreko (AGK) 721.00p -1.31%
Grafton Group Units (GFTU) 775.30p -1.17%
Scottish Inv Trust (SCIN) 801.00p -1.11%
Capita (CPI) 167.45p -0.86%


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Europe open: Stocks hold their ground, save in Italy
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European stocks have started the morning higher, save in Italy, where election officials are still counting the results of Sunday's ballot, which appear to indicate the country's main anti-establishment parties came away with half of the votes

Also weighing on sentiment, on Saturday US president Donald Trump threatened to target European carmakers with additional levies if Brussels retaliated against the White House's new tariffs on aluminium and steel.

"This all makes it very difficult for investors to know what to do. Any global company could instantly and significantly suffer if its principal products suddenly become subject to retaliatory trade restrictions," said Rebecca O'Keeffe at Interactive Investor.

As of 0825 GMT the benchmark Stoxx 600 was trading 0.30% or 1.11 points higher at 368.09, alongside a 0.18% or 9.01 point gain on the Cac-40 to 5,145.75, while Spain's Ibex 35 was adding 0.18% or 17.10 points to 9,546.30.

Meanwhile, the yield on the benchmark 10-year Italian government bond was one basis point higher to 1.98% and that on similarly-dated Spanish debt down by three basis points at 1.52%.

Commenting on the results of the parliamentary elections in Italy, economists at Berenberg said: "The outlook for further pro-growth reforms in Italy looks dim for now. Instead, Italy could be heading for partial reform reversals and an increase in public spending that may lead to some conflict with Italy's partners in the EU.

"If the 5Stars focus more on their anti-corruption drive than their expensive spending promises, the outlook may be less concerning."

But it wasn't all bad news at the start of the week.

Also on Sunday, it was announced that 66% of the German SPD party's voters had backed forming a grand coalition with Chancellor Angela Merkel's CDU/CSU, putting an end to the longest political impasse in modern German history.

Significantly, the coalition programme called for a focus on domestic issues and euro area reforms.

Nonetheless, economists at Barclays Research cautioned that: "any reform requiring either implicit or explicit German fiscal backing, such as debt mutualisation or the establishment of a euro area Finance Minster with an independent budget, seems unlikely in our view.

"Any such reform would also need support from all member states and, following Prime Minister Rutte's remarks on Friday, the Netherlands would likely oppose it."

Against that backdrop, come Monday morning strategists at JP Morgan reiterated their 'overweight' stance on Eurozone equities, citing - among other factors - stocks' "undemanding" valuations relative to fixed income.

On the economic calendar for later in the day, IHS Markit was set to release its 'final' euro area purchasing managers' indices for January at 0900 GMT, followed by euro area retail sales data for the month of January from Eurostat at 1000 GMT, alongside fourth quarter Greek GDP figures from ELSTAT.

In the corporate space, France's Axa agreed to buy American property and casualty peer XL Group for about $15.3bn in cash, for a 33% premium versus XL's closing price on Friday.

Airbus will move to slash its headcount by 3,600 people in the wake of lower rates of production for its A380 and A400M models.

At the weekend, Siemens announced a pricing range for the upcoming initial public offering of its Healthineers unit of between €26 and €31 a share, for a total valuation ranging from €26-€30bn.


US close: Shares end on mixed note despite 'trade war' worries

Wall Street's main indices finished the last session of the week on a mixed note, amid news that the US will impose tariffs on steel and aluminium imports, which sparked fears of a trade war.

By the closing bell, the Dow Jones Industrials was 0.29% or 70.92 points lower to 24,538.06, but alongside a 0.51% or 13.58 point advance on the S&P 500 to 2,691.25 while the Nasdaq Composite was ahead by 1.08% or 77.31 points at 7,257.87.

From a sector standpoint, the best performance was put in by stock within the following industrial groups: Electronic office equipment (2.72%), Medical supplies (2.64%) and Toys (2.63%).

In parallel, the yield on the benchmark 10-year US Treasury note climbed five basis points to 2.82%, while the Chicago Board of Options Exchange's VIX volatility index was down by 12.82% at 19.59 points.

For the week as a whole, the S&P 500 shed 56-05 points.

Acting as a backdrop, within just the last month, Wall Street had witnessed both its best weekly performance in five years and its worst week since 2016.

Stocks had suffered losses on Thursday after President Trump said at a meeting with American steel and aluminium producers that he plans to sign off on measures next week to impose a 25% tariff on steel imports and a 10% tariff on aluminium, to protect US companies.

However, domestic manufacturers said the tariffs would drive up prices and analysts pointing to the cost of higher inflation at least in the very near term.

In a similar vein, Australia called the news "disappointing", while Canada said the tariffs are "unacceptable", while European Commission President Juncker said the EU "will react firmly and commensurately to defend our interests".

For his part, the vice secretary general of the China Iron and Steel Association was rather more critical, labelling it "an extremely stupid move".

Trump tweeted on Friday: "When a country (USA) is losing many billions of dollars on trade with virtually every country it does business with, trade wars are good and easy to win. Example, when we are down $100 billion with a certain country and they get cute, don’t trade anymore - we win big. It's easy!"

Craig Erlam, senior market analyst at Oanda, said Trump has long been accused of prioritising protectionist populist measures over those that will benefit both domestic and global growth, something he has repeatedly dismissed, claiming the measures being considered were aimed at making trade fair and reciprocal.

"He may be able to persuade his core voter base of that but investors are far from convinced, as was evident by the market reaction to the announcement.

"This move isn't only bad for steel and aluminium producers, protectionist measures such as tariffs are bad for everyone who's costs have now increased, which impacts companies and end consumers. And these measures are unlikely to be a unique case, other countries will now consider counter-measures against the US which won’t necessarily target this particular sector.

"The announcement has also come at a time when investors sentiment is already fragile, with markets having been rocked by the prospect of more aggressive monetary tightening, which Trump is already partially responsible for after passing the tax reform measures late last year. For someone so obsessed with stock market performance, he’s taking a big gamble with these tariff’s, the benefits of which are questionable."

In corporate news, Foot Locker shares tumbled 13% after saying it swung to a net loss in the fourth quarter and issuing a downbeat outlook.

JC Penney tumbled 5.36% after its fourth-quarter earnings were dragged down as a result of Amazon taking much of its market share, and JD.com shares dialled back 7.50% as the cost of revenues rose 40% for the December quarter.

In economic news, the University of Michigan consumer sentiment index was the strongest it had been in 14 years throughout February, with a final reading coming in at 99.7 – a whole 4 points higher than January's reading.

Consumers had a seemingly positive assessment of jobs, wages, and higher after-tax pay, according to the University of Michigan said, as the highest number of households since 1998 reported an improvement to their finances compared to a year earlier.

The report also revealed the tax cuts had not received universal support, unlike previous reductions.

Dow Jones - Risers

Intel Corp. (INTC) $48.98 2.38%
Merck & Co. Inc. (MRK) $54.36 1.23%
Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) $128.79 1.21%
Procter & Gamble Co. (PG) $79.50 1.02%
Pfizer Inc. (PFE) $35.95 0.90%
General Electric Co. (GE) $14.13 0.71%
Apple Inc. (AAPL) $176.21 0.69%
Coca-Cola Co. (KO) $43.72 0.67%
Verizon Communications Inc. (VZ) $48.27 0.65%
Cisco Systems Inc. (CSCO) $44.06 0.59%

Dow Jones - Fallers

McDonald's Corp. (MCD) $148.27 -4.77%
Caterpillar Inc. (CAT) $146.38 -2.56%
Boeing Co. (BA) $344.67 -1.44%
Travelers Company Inc. (TRV) $137.88 -0.78%
Home Depot Inc. (HD) $178.46 -0.66%
Nike Inc. (NKE) $65.90 -0.63%
Dowdupont Inc. (DWDP) $68.43 -0.48%
3M Co. (MMM) $230.38 -0.42%
Walmart Inc. (WMT) $88.77 -0.36%
Chevron Corp. (CVX) $111.64 -0.36%

S&P 500 - Risers

Southwestern Energy Co. (SWN) $4.47 20.49%
Gap Inc. (GPS) $34.18 7.82%
Universal Health Services Inc. (UHS) $123.84 6.74%
Range Resources Corp. (RRC) $14.65 6.39%
Kohls Corp. (KSS) $66.50 5.98%
Chesapeake Energy Corp. (CHK) $2.95 5.71%
Under Armour Inc. Class A (UAA) $17.02 5.45%
Endo International Plc (ENDP) $6.87 5.21%
Equifax Inc. (EFX) $117.23 5.14%
Nordstrom Inc. (JWN) $53.04 5.07%

S&P 500 - Fallers

McDonald's Corp. (MCD) $148.27 -4.77%
Spectra Energy Corp. (SE) $10.67 -3.26%
Best Buy Co. Inc. (BBY) $73.04 -3.00%
Lowe's Companies Inc. (LOW) $85.34 -2.98%
Allergan plc (AGN) $143.99 -2.81%
PACCAR Inc. (PCAR) $67.19 -2.68%
Caterpillar Inc. (CAT) $146.38 -2.56%
Frontier Communications Co. (FTR) $7.00 -2.23%
Deere & Co. (DE) $153.31 -2.23%
Harley-Davidson Inc. (HOG) $44.20 -2.02%

Nasdaq 100 - Risers

Workday, Inc. (WDAY) $131.28 5.91%
Incyte Corp. (INCY) $86.61 4.24%
Netflix Inc. (NFLX) $301.05 3.67%
Align Technology Inc. (ALGN) $253.71 3.32%
Micron Technology Inc. (MU) $49.11 3.13%
Broadcom Limited (AVGO) $250.87 3.11%
DENTSPLY Sirona Inc. (XRAY) $56.96 3.02%
Take-Two Interactive Software Inc. (TTWO) $110.77 3.00%
Biomarin Pharmaceutical Inc. (BMRN) $79.86 2.82%
Activision Blizzard Inc. (ATVI) $74.01 2.78%

Nasdaq 100 - Fallers

JD.com, Inc. (JD) $43.80 -5.22%
Ulta Salon, Cosmetics & Fragrance Inc. (ULTA) $194.00 -3.34%
Liberty Interactive Corporation QVC Group (QVCA) $26.69 -3.14%
PACCAR Inc. (PCAR) $67.19 -2.68%
Charter Communications Inc. (CHTR) $332.75 -1.96%
Liberty Interactive Corporation - Series A Liberty Ventures (LVNTA)$52.32 -1.76%
O'Reilly Automotive Inc. (ORLY) $241.01 -0.92%
American Airlines Group (AAL) $53.18 -0.56%
Liberty Global plc Series A (LBTYA) $31.70 -0.53%
QUALCOMM Inc. (QCOM) $64.74 -0.34%


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Monday newspaper round-up: Income tax, Ofgem, Equitable Life, Wm Morrison

Income tax bands could be scrapped to give average earners as much as £1,100 each without costing the government a penny, according to a report calling for radical changes to make theUK tax system fairer. According to the Institute for Public Policy Research thinktank, just as much money could be raised by the government if it merged income tax with national insurance, scrapped existing tax bands and introduced individual rates that would be tailored around pay and would rise with higher earnings. - Guardian

Ofgem is to formally ban gas and electricity suppliers from issuing customers with back-bills for energy used more than 12 months ago. Most of the big suppliers are bound by a voluntary agreement that prevents them chasing a domestic customer for energy supplied more than a year ago. After a consultation, the energy regulator has banned all suppliers from back-billing, where the consumer has provided meter readings and acted in good faith. - Guardian

Endless, the British turnaround fund, has sold out of Continental car parts maker Brabant Alucast for €53m (£47m). The investor is well-known for taking on distressed UK firms, with Jones Bootmaker, West Cornwall Pasty Company, steel bar manufacturer Acenta Steel and discount book store The Works among its past buys. – Telegraph

Equitable Life is preparing to pay out hundreds of millions of pounds to policyholders, paving the way for a ­potential sale nearly 18 years after it closed to new business. Chris Wiscarson, the mutual insurer’s chief executive, has drawn up plans to pay some 300,000 policyholders a one-off sum of several thousand pounds each. - Telegraph

Wm Morrison is facing a potential £100 million equal pay compensation claim from hundreds of its staff, who believe that they have been underpaid compared with colleagues. More than 170 possible claimants, predominantly women, are already preparing to launch a legal challenge demanding pay parity for carrying out work of “equal value” with staff, often men, working in distribution centres and warehouses. – The Times

Credit Suisse has launched an investigation into how it handled an alleged workplace assault eight years ago after the case was resurrected by the victim this year and received no attention by the investment bank. A female employee, who has left the bank, claimed to have been sexually harassed by her senior male manager in 2010. The incident was referred to the Metropolitan Police, which investigated it twice in 2010 and 2011. No charges were brought. Credit Suisse also conducted an internal inquiry and no disciplinary action was taken. The senior manager still works at the bank. – The Times

 

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