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Jan 4, 2018

Evening Euro Markets Bulletin

 
ADVFN III Evening Euro Markets Bulletin
Daily world financial news Thursday, 04 January 2018 18:40:43
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London Market Report
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London close: FTSE nudges 7700 as Wall Street confidence spreads

London stocks took confidence from their US and European counterparts on Thursday afternoon, even though the pound ticked up against the dollar following decent services data, while a profit warning from Debenhams weighed on retail shares.

The FTSE 100 index closed up 24.8 points or 0.32% 7,695.88, having reached a new record intraday high just above 7,700 earlier.

Meanwhile, the pound was down 0.2% against the euro at 1.1223 but up 0.2% versus the greenback at 1.3540 after solid data on the UK's key services sector.

Said analyst Joshua Mahony at IG: "The pound enjoyed yet another day of gains, thanks in no small part to the welcome outperformance of the UK services PMI figure this morning. With the UK services PMI hitting the second highest reading in eight months, there is hope that the sector will drive the pound higher and allow the BoE to raise rates further in 2018 if inflation continues to rise."

The UK purchasing managers' index from IHS Markit/CIPS showed an improved reading of 54.2 in December from the 53.8 a month earlier and better than the 54.0 consensus forecast. However, growth in new services orders fell to a 16-month low and a hiring slowed, to underscore the downside risks to the near-term outlook.

After surveys earlier in the week on the UK's manufacturing and construction sectors indicated continued growth despite both falling short of expectations, the all-sector PMI survey gave a reading for December of 54.9, which was short of the 55.0 consensus and unmoved from the previous month.

Based on historical comparisons, the composite survey suggested the UK economy grew at a quarterly rate of 0.4-0.5% in the fourth quarter, following the third quarter's 0.4% expansion. This would result in growth of around 1.8% for the whole of 2017, down from 1.9% the year before.

UK stocks has been flat until midday but began to gain ground in the afternoon. Helping sentiment in the City was a bullish Wall Street, where the Dow Jones index planted its flat in 25,000 and then looked for the next peak.

"The bullish sentiment in the US seems to be having a similarly optimistic effect upon their European counterparts, with the FTSE 100 managing to move within touching distance of record highs despite a day of gains for the pound," said IG's Mahoney.

"With markets hoping to see Donald Trump move the agenda towards infrastructure spending plans this month, the continued improvements seen in the US economy as evident by today's ADP outperformance are expected to persist. With markets looking towards tomorrow's US jobs report as a key driver of market direction, the focus will increasingly be upon the wage numbers as a key driver of monetary policy. As the US jobs market approaches 'full employment', the labour demand associated with large infrastructure would no doubt cause wage push inflation, putting further pressure on the Fed to act."

Asian markets had earlier notched a record high as Japanese shares played catch-up, while data out of China earlier showed the services sector grew at its fastest pace in more than three years in December. The Caixin/Markit services purchasing managers' index rose to 53.9 last month from 51.9 in November, marking the best reading since August 2014 and beating expectations of 51.8.

Meanwhile the mood in Europe was lifted as a eurozone survey showed the bloc's economic growth accelerated more than initially estimated in December. The eurozone PMI rose to 58.1 from 57.5 in November, coming in ahead of the flash estimate of 58.0 and marking the highest reading since February 2011.

Elsewhere, the latest survey from mortgage lender Nationwide revealed that UK house price growth slowed in 2017, though was higher than expected in December. Prices across 2017 were up 2.6% on the year, down from the 4.5% annual increase recorded in 2016. London was the weakest region for the first time since 2004, with prices in the capital down 0.5%.

On the corporate front, NMC Health led the FTSE 100 after buying up the outstanding minority stakes in the Fakih fertility clinic and As Salama Hospital for a total of $218m. NMC said it would pay a combination of cash and new shares worth $205m for the 49% of Fakih IVF it does not own.

Whitbread gained after it appointed former ITV and Royal Mail boss Adam Crozier as its new chairman amid recent City chatter about a potential break-up of the Premier Inn and Costa Coffee owner, while Rotork was higher as it appointed Kevin Hostetler as chief executive with effect from 12 March.

Unilever was slightly higher as it confirmed the closure of its 160-year old Colman's Mustard factory in Norwich. Of the 113 jobs to go in the city, 25 jobs will be created at a new mustard plant nearby and 40 will transfer to Burton-on-Trent.

Meanwhile, security services company G4S was propelled higher by an upbeat note from Redburn, while Wood Group was lifted by JP Morgan reiterating its 'overweight' stance and telling clients it remained a 'top pick' in the oil field services space for 2018.

In sharp contrast to the upbeat performance after Next's update a day earlier, a profit warning from Debenhams saw retailers dominate on the downside. Sales at the department store group fell and "tactical promotional action" misfired in the crucial festive period, leading to speculation from analysts that the company will need to cut its dividend. Sports Direct, which owns 21% of Debenhams, was down more than 3%, though rumours abounded that boss Mike Ashley might make an opportunistic bid. Fellow retailers Marks & Spencer, Burberry and Next were all in the red.

Medical inhaler specialist Vectura dropped as it said 2017 full year revenue should be in line with expectations, adding that a strong second half delivered closing cash and cash equivalents of around £104m net of £1.4m outflows in respect of the £15m share buyback which started in November.

Hochschild Mining was hit by a downgrade to 'sector perform' from 'outperform' by RBC Capital Markets on valuation grounds.


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Europe Market Report
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Europe close: Periphery stocks jump, Dax brushes off euro gains

Stocks barreled higher on the back of strong survey data out of the euro area and despite a renewed move higher in the single currency.

According to IHS Markit, service sector activity in the Eurozone accelerated in December to its fastest clip in more than six-and-a-half years, leaving a composite gauge for both factory and services pointing at the highest annual trend since 2006.

"A stellar end to 2017 for the Eurozone rounded off the best year for over a decade, continuing to confound widely-held fears that rising political uncertainty would curb economic growth," said Chris Williamson, chief business economist at IHS Markit.

As of 1721 GMT, the benchmark Stoxx 600 was ahead by 0.89% or 3.46 points at 393.68, alongside a rise of 1.46% or 189.68 points to 13,167.89 for the German Dax and an advance of 2.77% or 607.57 points to 22,512.13 on the FTSE Mibtel.

Pacing gains on the latter was stock in Fiat Chrysler and Exor, with the former apparently boosted by the outlook for sales on the other side of the Pond thanks to recently approved tax cuts.

From a sector standpoint, Banks (1.62%) and Construction (1.86%) were among the best performers on the Stoxx 600.

Meanwhile, euro/dollar was again moving higher, adding 0.46% to 1.2070, even as longer-term government bond yields on the periphery retreated.

IHS Markit's euro area services sector Purchasing Managers' Index printed at 56.6 last month, up from a preliminary reading of 56.5 and a print of 56.2 for the month before.

Similarly, the composite PMI for December from the same survey compiler was marked up from an initial reading of 58.0 to 58.1.

Acting as a backdrop, overnight Caixin's Chinese services PMI shot up from a reading of 51.6 in November to 53.0 for December.

Potential M&A dominated the corporate headlines again; according to Reuters, Nestle and the private equity owners of Stada were readying bids for Merck KGaA's consumer health arm.

Further north, in Germany Volkwagen was reportedly in negotiations to buy a stake in GAZ, a Russian light commercial vehicle manufacturer.


Hargreaves Lansdown

Top of the stocks

Number of Deals Bought

Place EPIC Equity name %
1 UKOG UK Oil & Gas Investments plc 2.93
2 LGEN Legal & General Group plc 1.78
3 SOPH Sophos Group plc 1.57
4 SXX Sirius Minerals plc 1.51
5 IQE IQE plc 1.50
6 XBT Provider AB 1.48
7 GSK GlaxoSmithKline plc 1.36
8 XBT Provider AB 1.15
9 XBT Provider AB 1.12
10 LLOY Lloyds Banking Group plc 1.08

Number of Deals Sold

Place EPIC Equity name %
1 UKOG UK Oil & Gas Investments plc 2.75
2 LLOY Lloyds Banking Group plc 2.05
3 IQE IQE plc 1.35
4 GLEN Glencore plc 1.22
5 XBT Provider AB 1.19
6 PURP PurpleBricks Group plc 0.94
7 BP. BP Plc 0.92
8 IWG IWG plc 0.91
9 RDSB Royal Dutch Shell Plc B Shares 0.85
10 RIO Rio Tinto plc 0.83

Cryptocurrencies Report

Top Cryptocurrencies

# Name Market Cap($) Price(%) Change Price Graph(3m)
1 Bitcoin (BTC) 253,843,625,980 14,803.62 -2.07%
2 Ripple (XRP) 137,997,356,557 3.05 +11.84%
3 Ethereum (ETH) 99,443,237,944 1,005.05 +6.7%
4 Bitcoin Cash / BCC (BCH) 41,212,249,443 2,408.27 -5.83%
5 Cardano (ADA) 30,877,844,657 1.2 +13.34%

US Market Report

US open: Dow Industrials punches past 25,000 point mark

The Dow Jones Industrials is punching past the psychological 25,000 point mark for the first time ever, on the back of a bumper reading on one of the most widely-followed surveys of hiring conditions in the US.

At 1536 GMT, the Dow Jones Industrials Average was ahead by 0.61% or 149.79 points to 25,073.40, led by advances in IBM and Goldman Sachs, alongside a rise of 0.52% or 13.86 points for the S&P 500 to 2,726.88 and an increase of 0.36% or 25.65 points to 7,091.11 for the Nasdaq Composite.

On Wednesday, the S&P 500 rose above 2,700 for the first time, while the Dow and the Nasdaq both racked-up record closes.

From a sector standpoint, the best performing areas of the market were: Oil equipment and services (2.17%), Travel & Tourism (2.17%) and Computer services (1.78%).

Stoking buying interest, consultancy ADP reported a 250,000 person increase in private sector hiring Stateside during the month of December, niftily outpacing a consensus forecast for a 190,000 person jump.

Commenting on the market backdrop, David Madden, senior market analyst at CMC Markets, said: "The upbeat outlook from the Federal Reserve minutes last night has sent US stock to record highs. The Dow Jones has crossed the 25,000 mark and the S&P 500 and NASDAQ 100 have also registered fresh all-time highs. The minutes from the latest Fed meeting last night showed that US central bankers predict a tick up in economic activity from the tax reforms introduced by President Trump."

Perhaps, yet the US dollar spot index was again ceding ground, slipping 0.35% to 91.84, even as the yield on the benchmark 10-year US Treasury note edged up by three basis points to 2.48%.

In other economic news, initial jobless claims increased by 3,000 to 250,000 over the week ending on 30 December, according to the Department of Labor (consensus: 230,000).

Meanwhile, on the corporate front, electric car maker Tesla was in the red after saying late on Wednesday that it delivered fewer vehicles than expected in the fourth quarter and pushing back its production target for the Model 3.

Elsewhere, Intel Corp retreated after the technology company said on Wednesday that its chips have a security vulnerability that will require software patches.

Those of rival AMD on the other hand reacted with glee.

Shares of agricultural giant Monsanto were also in demand despite posting first quarter adjusted earnings per share of 41 cents cents on the back of $2.66bn in revenues, both of which were shy of analysts' forecasts.

The owner of Victoria's Secret, L Brands, plummeted after the firm lowered its guidance for its fourth quarter EPS to roughly $2.0, from a range of between $1.95 to $2.10.

Dow Jones - Risers

International Business Machines Corp. (IBM) $161.35 4.60%
Dowdupont Inc. (DWDP) $74.30 3.34%
General Electric Co. (GE) $18.41 2.39%
American Express Co. (AXP) $101.27 2.35%
Exxon Mobil Corp. (XOM) $86.79 2.07%
Visa Inc. (V) $116.77 1.97%
Unitedhealth Group Inc. (UNH) $225.26 1.85%
United Technologies Corp. (UTX) $130.46 1.79%
JP Morgan Chase & Co. (JPM) $109.74 1.66%
Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (GS) $258.89 1.26%

Dow Jones - Fallers

Intel Corp. (INTC) $43.15 -4.65%
Verizon Communications Inc. (VZ) $52.24 -2.41%
Nike Inc. (NKE) $62.88 -0.95%
Walt Disney Co. (DIS) $111.70 -0.09%
McDonald's Corp. (MCD) $173.40 0.10%
Boeing Co. (BA) $297.54 0.24%
Chevron Corp. (CVX) $128.03 0.35%
Wal-Mart Stores Inc. (WMT) $99.09 0.51%
Home Depot Inc. (HD) $189.04 0.53%
Apple Inc. (AAPL) $173.26 0.60%

S&P 500 - Risers

SCANA Corp. (SCG) $48.01 23.51%
Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc. (CMG) $307.14 4.84%
International Business Machines Corp. (IBM) $161.35 4.60%
Under Armour Inc. Class A (UAA) $15.68 4.32%
Moody's Corp. (MCO) $152.27 4.20%
Carmax Inc. (KMX) $67.44 4.14%
United Parcel Service Inc. (UPS) $128.70 4.07%
Sempra Energy (SRE) $109.52 3.96%
CVS Health Corp (CVS) $76.40 3.92%
Eaton Corporation plc (ETN) $81.82 3.75%

S&P 500 - Fallers

L Brands Inc (LB) $49.72 -16.98%
Macy's Inc. (M) $23.71 -9.88%
Kohls Corp. (KSS) $52.88 -6.16%
CenturyLink Inc. (CTL) $16.39 -5.86%
Nordstrom Inc. (JWN) $46.54 -5.25%
Gap Inc. (GPS) $32.10 -5.24%
Kroger Co. (KR) $26.89 -4.98%
Intel Corp. (INTC) $43.15 -4.65%
Tenet Healthcare Corp. (THC) $15.29 -4.38%
Best Buy Co. Inc. (BBY) $66.32 -4.11%

Nasdaq 100 - Risers

Workday, Inc. (WDAY) $109.56 4.17%
Cadence Design Systems Inc. (CDNS) $43.70 1.79%
Intuit Inc. (INTU) $161.99 1.77%
Hologic Inc. (HOLX) $44.24 1.74%
Idexx Laboratories Inc. (IDXX) $164.73 1.65%
Synopsys Inc. (SNPS) $88.42 1.56%
Adobe Systems Inc. (ADBE) $183.82 1.54%
Cognizant Technology Solutions Corp. (CTSH) $72.64 1.52%
Check Point Software Technologies Ltd. (CHKP) $106.62 1.34%
Micron Technology Inc. (MU) $45.57 1.31%

Nasdaq 100 - Fallers

Walgreens Boots Alliance, Inc. (WBA) $71.10 -5.84%
Intel Corp. (INTC) $43.15 -4.65%
Tesla Inc (TSLA) $307.40 -3.10%
Western Digital Corp. (WDC) $80.71 -2.37%
Incyte Corp. (INCY) $99.06 -1.90%
Regeneron Pharmaceuticals Inc. (REGN) $386.73 -1.79%
Ulta Salon, Cosmetics & Fragrance Inc. (ULTA) $240.93 -1.71%
Celgene Corp. (CELG) $107.34 -1.65%
Liberty Interactive Corporation QVC Group (QVCA) $25.07 -1.63%


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Broker Tips

Broker tips: GVC Holdings, Asos, Wizz Air

GVC Holdings' takeover of Ladbrokes Coral should bring greater scale and geographic diversity as well as boosting earnings and cash growth, said analysts at Barclays as they initiated coverage on the online gaming group on Tuesday.

These three reasons make the deal attractive and, on a proforma post-deal basis, GVC's shares look "cheap" on a price/earnings ratio that would fall from 9-11 in 2020 to around 8-9.5 in 2021 "when all cost synergies should have been delivered".

However, should the deal not complete, as it stands GVC looks "relatively expensive" and the share would likely tumble.

On Barclays confidence in the deal, which was announced late last month, shares in the owner of Foxy Bingo and Partypoker were given an initial 'overweight' rating and a 1,066p target.

The risks of a large merger are tempered as both sides of the management team have strong track records of integrating complicated businesses and of delivering even better cost synergies than expected.

Deutsche Bank upgraded online fashion retailer ASOS to 'buy' from 'hold' and hiked the price target to 7,400p from 5,800p.

The bank said ASOS is well placed to continue to benefit from the online channel shift, underpinned by a high pace of active customer number additions and expansion into the activewear and beauty categories.

"In particular in 2018 we expect strong growth in Europe, as the company delivers the full service and cost benefits of its localised logistics and digital shopfronts. Meanwhile, customer economics remain very strong with payback on acquisition costs more than twice as fast as at Zalando."

Deutsche Bank outlined five reasons why it is positive on ASOS. It pointed out that the channel shift online continues and said ASOS should continue to gain channel share. In addition, DB said that Face & Body and Activewear categories increase the total addressable market.

It also said that international expansion, especially in Europe, has strong prospects, and the customer economics remain very strong.


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