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Jan 16, 2018

Evening Euro Markets Bulletin

 
ADVFN III Evening Euro Markets Bulletin
Daily world financial news Tuesday, 16 January 2018 20:26:53
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Share Tips for 2018

The Share Centre’s investment research analyst Ian Forrest, comments on five equities, an investment trust as well as an ETF that our expert research team think could flourish in 2018.  Read more. Capital at risk.


London Market Report
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London close: Commodities losses and Carillion fallout weigh on stocks

London's blue chip stocks failed to hold onto their early gains on Tuesday, as the drag from metals prices on mining heavyweights offset any benefit from a fall in the pound on the back of an easing in UK inflation.

The FTSE 100 closed down 0.2% to 7,755.93 though the mid-cap FTSE 250 index gained 0.2% to 20,877.30. The pound recouped earlier losses against the dollar to sink just 0.1% against the greenback at 1.3779 and climbed 0.1% versus the euro to 1.126.

Earlier, the consumer price index for December was revealed by the Office for National Statistics to have dropped back to an annual rate of 3.0% from 3.1% a month earlier, as forecast by economists. On a monthly basis, CPI rose 0.4%, as expected, after a 0.3% increase a month earlier.

Core CPI, which excludes more volatile prices such as food and energy, rose 2.5% year-on-year, less than the 2.6% expected and the prior month's reading of 2.7%. CPIH, the ONS's preferred measure of inflation as it includes owner-occupiers' housing costs, fell to 2.7%, in line with the consensus forecast, and down from 2.8% a month before.

The pound fell slightly on data's suggestion that UK inflation may have peaked, but this was overridden by the weight of the mining sector losses.

Also worth considering were investors' concerns about what Carillion's collapse means for the UK economy, said analyst Connor Campbell at Spreadex.

Fallout from the collapse into insolvency of the former construction giant continued on Tuesday, with banks not expecting to get back much of Carillion's £1.6bn debt pile and suppliers hit by £1bn of unpaid bills.

A witness statement filed at the High Court by the group's interim chief executive Keith Cochrane revealed the expected recovery for creditors in the liquidation is 0.8p to 6.6p in the pound. Cochrane, Sky News reported, laid some blame on Royal Bank of Scotland for tightening the terms of its funding three days before the liquidators were called in, which he said represented "unilateral action which in the company's view undermined the group's efforts to conserve cash".

Miners were the worst performers on the FTSE 100 as copper and iron ore prices fell following recent gains, with Antofagasta, Anglo American and BHP Billiton all in the red. Iron ore, copper, crude and gold prices have all declined so far this week.

IG analyst Chris Beauchamp said: "It is more likely a pause before the next move higher - ongoing improvement in economic fundamentals means miners are still the place to be, a fact which may well help the FTSE 100 to post more record highs in the months to come."

Anglo-Australian miner Rio Tinto slipped despite saying it managed to hit its iron ore export targets after a solid showing in the final quarter where it shipped a record 90m tonnes, up from 85.8m tonnes in the previous three months.

Oil giant BP gushed lower after saying it expects to take a post-tax non-operating charge of around $1.7bn in the fourth quarter as part of the class action settlement of the disastrous Deepwater Horizon oil well spill in the US in 2010.

Troubled doorstep lender Provident Financial was a big faller after reporting on a mixed final quarter of the year, where there were 20% fewer new customer bookings for its Vanquis Bank arm and losses from the doorstep lending business were flagged as coming in at the worse end of expectations. However, analysts at Canaccord and Numis were largely positive, with the former noting that home credit receivables and active customers were ahead of its estimates of £300m and 0.4-0.5m respectively. .

Shares in Capita were hit after it lost out to a rival in its bid to retain the contract for administration of Prudential's life and pensions business. The Pru will transfer the contract from Capita to Tata Consultancy Services in July as part of a wider customer and technology transformation programme, which Capita said were expected to have contributed around £80m in revenue in the full year to December 2017.

Hospital group Spire Healthcare fell 2% after it stated that it expects 2017 revenues to be under 1% lower than previously guided. Spire also set a guidance range for underlying operating profits that includes prior guidance at the top end.

Homewares retailer Dunelm reversed earlier after saying comparable sales in the second quarter rose 3.4% thanks to a solid performance from the online segment. Investors were less pleased that margins were dented slightly and the first half will see profits fall.

Ashmore gave up its early gains and ended in the red, down 1.5%, despite the emerging markets asset manager posting a jump in assets under management for the three months to the end of December amid strong net inflows.

Likewise, the brakes were put on National Express after an initial rise, despite the coach operator saying it expects changes to the US tax system to cut its effective tax rate to the low 20s from the high 20s.

On the upside, high street baker Greggs advanced after saying full year total sales were up by a tasty 7.4% and company-managed shop like-for-like sales grew by 3.7%.

Retailer JD Sports surged after saying it expects pre-tax profit for the year to 3 February 2018 to be ahead of market expectations following a strong second half. Management highlighted the "material growth in online and continuing overseas space expansion", with broker Shore Capital hailing UK online sales growth of circa 30%, with international online growing at a faster growth rate but from a much lower revenue base.

Estate agent Savills was in the black after saying it had a stronger-than-expected finish to 2017 and now sees underlying results for the year to the end of December ahead of its previous expectations.

Halma ticked up after saying it expects the recently enacted US tax cuts and to positively impact its future US after tax adjusted earnings and provide a £15m non-cash credit the year to March 2018.

RPC and Inchcape were hit by downgrades to 'hold' at Berenberg, but Primark owner Associated British Foods and Hunting were sharply higher after upgrades at Barclays and Morgan Stanley, respectively.


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Europe Market Report
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Europe close: Stocks end off best levels, eyes on Wall Street and Germany

German issues paced gains on the Continent, thanks to a pause in the single currency's recent rapid move higher and as Wall Street's main market gauges eased back from their opening gains.

Overnight, Berlin's chapter of the SPD voted 21-8 against backing formal coalition talks between the Socialist party and Chancellor Angela Merkel's centre-right CDU/CSU, news of which weighed on the single currency.

The ballot was especially significant, coming as it did ahead of a 21 January vote by all 600 SPD delegates on whether to formally begin talks.

Against that backdrop, by the closing bell the benchmark Stoxx 600 was standing marginally higher, having added 0.13% or 0.52 points to 398.35, alongside a rise of 0.35% or 45.82 points to 13,246.33 for the German Dax and an advance of 0.07% or 4.13 points in the Cac-40 to 5,513.82.

Meanwhile, euro/dollar gave back 0.25% to 1.2237 after hitting an intraday low of 1.2200 and the yield on the benchmark 10-year bund was down by three basis points to 0.56%.

Yet as one analyst in the City pointed out, a Forsa poll conducted on 12 January had shown 56% of SPD and 70% of CDU/CSU voters favoured another coalition government.

On a more cautious note, strategists at Bank of America-Merrill Lynch said: "at this stage, German government formation still looks far from complete and the current discussion on Europe appears to be a tentative return to the pre-election 'status quo' rather than a big step forward. We remain cautious and timing [of Europe reforms] remains crucial."

"Equities remain positive with the German DAX and Wall St outperforming a flat UK FTSE100. The latter is in spite of GBP off its highs, as USD finds support to inspire profit taking in the commodity space, coupled with mixed inflation prints, a plethora of corporate results and an absence of risk appetite favouring defensives. The DAX benefits from EUR weakness amid fresh German coalition talk uncertainty. Wall St retains a bullish bias, set to open higher after a long weekend," chipped in Mike van Dulken at Accendo Markets.

Also sparking some interest in the US dollar, overnight Japan's finance minister, Taro Aso cautioned overnight against "big swings" in foreign exchange markets.

Coincidence or not, come Tuesday some analysts appeared to be starting wonder if at some point, or rather at which point, the European Central Bank might also take issue with the speed of gains in the euro, which had come just as rate-setters in Frankfurt were beginning to spy an exit from their programme of bond purchases.

Elsewhere on the economic front, the German Ministry of Finance reported that harmonised consumer prices in the euro area's largest economy rose by 0.8% on the month and 1.6% year-on-year in December, as expected, down from the 1.8% pace seen in November.

Similarly, ISTAT confirmed its preliminary estimate that at the end of 2017 Italian consumer prices advanced at a 0.3% clip month-on-month, despite which the annual rate of gains slipped to 1.0%.

Later in the day, the Federal Reserve bank of New York was scheduled to release its regional manufacturing gauge for the month of January.

Making headlines in the corporate space, according to the Journal, Airbus chief Tom Enders accused the Trump administration of protectionism and criticised Boeing for taking advantage of such sentiments.

Also in France, carmaker Peugeot posted a 15.4% jump in its global sales last year.

Meanwhile, Deutsche Bank and eight other lenders were accused in a lawsuit of conspiring to rig a Canadian rate benchmark.


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Hargreaves Lansdown

Top of the stocks

Number of Deals Bought

Place EPIC Equity name %
1 RMG Royal Mail PLC 6.54
2 BP. BP Plc 5.31
3 NG. National Grid 5.19
4 RDSB Royal Dutch Shell Plc B Shares 4.49
5 SMT Scottish Mortgage Investment Trust 1.45
6 ULVR Unilever plc 1.40
7 CLLN Carillion plc 1.23
8 WTAN Witan Investment Trust 1.20
9 BOO Boohoo.com 1.18
10 SOPH Sophos Group plc 1.08

Number of Deals Sold

Place EPIC Equity name %
1 LLOY Lloyds Banking Group plc 2.81
2 CLLN Carillion plc 2.80
3 BOO Boohoo.com 1.54
4 GKN GKN plc 1.49
5 XBT Provider AB 1.45
6 PMO Premier Oil Plc 1.17
7 IQE IQE plc 1.09
8 XBT Provider AB 1.05
9 GLEN Glencore plc 0.82
10 SXX Sirius Minerals plc 0.80

Cryptocurrencies Report

Top Cryptocurrencies

# Name Market Cap($) Price(%) Change Price Graph(3m)
1 Bitcoin (BTC) 194,206,985,640 11,347.64 -16.28%
2 Ethereum (ETH) 103,678,348,786 1,035.94 -18.62%
3 Ripple (XRP) 49,321,127,061 1.21 -32.88%
4 Bitcoin Cash / BCC (BCH) 32,123,101,387 1,892.73 -23.59%

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US Market Report

US open: Dow trades above 26,000 for first time; Citigroup earnings in focus

US stocks were at record highs in early trade on Tuesday as the Dow breached the 26,000 level for the first time, with sentiment underpinned by earnings from the likes of Citigroup and UnitedHealth.

At 1520 GMT, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 1% at 26,057.32, setting a fresh intraday record above 26,000, while the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq were up 0.6% and 0.8% at 2,803.90 and 7,319.18, respectively.

In corporate news, Citigroup rose following the bank's quarterly earnings. Although it posted an $18.3bn loss for the last three months of 2017 due to a $22bn accounting charge, investors welcomed news that it was sticking to its promise to pay out at least $60bn to shareholders over three years.

Long Blockchain rallied after announcing that it has entered into a letter of intent to be bought by Slater Blockchain in an all-share deal.

Merck was sharply higher after a trial showed that its Keytruda drug in combination with two other chemotherapy drugs was successful as a first-line treatment for lung cancer.

GM was in the black even as it said 2018 earnings are likely to be flat, with higher profit expected the year after, while UnitedHealth rose in after the insurer's quarterly earnings beat expectations.

Car retailer AutoNation advanced after saying it will use savings from the new US tax system towards retirement and cancer benefits for employees, while shares in USA Compression edged higher as it said it will buy Energy Transfer Partner LP's compression business in a $1.8bn deal.

Going the other way, General Electric lost ground after saying that a review of GE Capital's insurance portfolio would result in a $6.2bn after-tax charge in the fourth quarter.

US-listed shares of BP gushed lower after the oil giant said it expects to take a post-tax non-operating charge of around $1.7bn in the fourth quarter as part of the class action settlement of the disastrous Deepwater Horizon oil well spill in the US in 2010.

On the macroeconomic front, results of a widely-followed regional gauge showed factory sector activity in the jurisdiction of the Federal Reserve bank of New York cooled a tad in January.

The Empire State index slipped from a reading of 19.6 for December to 17.7 in January, versus economists' forecasts for a reading of 18.5.

Sub-indices linked to new orders and shipments fell by 7.1 and 9.1 points each to 11.9 and 14.4, respectively. Meanwhile, a gauge referencing levels of staffing dropped by 19.1 points to 3.8. On the flip side, a sub-index tracking inventory levels jumped by 12.4 points to reach 13.8.

Ian Shepherdson, chief economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, said: "On the face of it, these data suggest that the national ISM manufacture index will drop to about 57.5 from 59.7, but we think the Empire State numbers likely overstate the impact of the weather on the national picture. In any event, we see no reason to expect any sustained weakening in the manufacturing surveys."


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Broker Tips

Broker tips: Premier Oil, Boohoo.com

Analysts at RBC downgraded their recommendation on shares of Premier Oil from 'outperform' to 'sector perform' after the shares had reached their 100p target, which was unchanged.

That target, they explained, was premised on a 2018 price for Brent oil of $59 a barrel, rising to $60 in 2019, which was $10 a barrel below then current prices.

Hence, should oil prices remain at $70 out to 2019, their decision to downgrade might turn out to be mistake.

Under such a scenario, their estimate of the company's fully diluted tangible net asset value, excluding Sea Lion, would rise from 106p a share to 138p.

Indeed, Premier's free cash flow would almost double to roughly $380m, allowing it to again meet its temporarily loosened debt covenants by a comfortable margin.

 

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