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Jan 30, 2018

Evening Euro Markets Bulletin

 
ADVFN III Evening Euro Markets Bulletin
Daily world financial news Tuesday, 30 January 2018 19:51:24
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The Top 10 Stocks for 2018

What does the year hold for these 10 blue chips?

A look at some of the key themes in the coming 12-months, the key numbers from 2017, FTSE 100 companies that reached record highs… and those that fell to all-time lows, and our Top Stock Picks for 2018. Losses can exceed deposits.

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London Market Report
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London close: Stocks slump as bonds and FCA warning weigh, Carney lifts pound

The FTSE was a sea of red on Tuesday by a bruising combination of government bond pressure, a rising pound and a hit for banks and builders from a regulatory warning.

London's stock benchmark lost 1.1% to close at 7,587.98, while the pound regained 0.4% against the greenback to 1.4135 and climbed 0.3% versus the euro to 1.1398 after comments on from Bank of England governor Mark Carney.

A lower open on Wall Street poured further cold water on the mood, while oil prices were another dampener, with Brent Crude down 1.2% to $68.61 a barrel.

Questioned by the House of Lords' economic affairs committee on Tuesday afternoon, Carney said: "The important thing with [monetary] policy now is that as slack in the economy has been taken out, we move into a more conventional area for monetary policy, where the focus is increasingly on returning inflation sustainably to target over an appropriate horizon".

He said he saw a pick-up in UK business investment next year, once companies get a better idea of the shape of the post-Brexit relationship with the EU. "My impression of UK businesses is that they are looking for greater certainty and there should be a pick-up in investment in 2019."

Mortgage numbers from the Bank and a warning from its regulatory arm, the Financial Conduct Authority, were also moving markets. The financial sector and housebuilders both hit after the City watchdog urged lenders to increase checks on interest-only mortgages.

"Borrowing levels are high and there has been talk of a property bubble for some time now, and the prospect of another housing crash is weighing on Barclay's, Lloyds, RBS and HSBC," said analyst David Madden at CMC Markets.

Investors were also digesting figures out earlier from the Bank showing that the number of new mortgages fell sharply in December as the housing market slowed down.

Mortgage approvals dropped to 61,039 last month from 64,712 in November as the number of loans fell for purchases and remortgaging. The figure was well below expectations for 63,500 approvals and was the lowest since January 2015.

A slump in commodity markets was also driven mining and energy stocks lower, with lower metals and oil prices undermining Rio Tinto, Anglo American, Shell and BP.

To make matters worse for the European equity markets, the continued weakness in the US dollar had pushed up the pound and the euro ?" which have hurt the FTSE 100, DAX and CAC 40.

On the pound's revival after falling below 1.40 in early trade, GKFX analyst David Morrison said the turnaround was surprising given calls for the Prime Minister's head after the leak of a Brexit impact report for the Cabinet overnight. According to confidential analysis produced for the government and leaked to Buzzfeed, Britain will be worse off under all plausible scenarios when it leaves the EU.

"Today's press reports make dismal reading for PM Theresa May, with some insisting that her position is untenable. But the pound's strength is much more about dollar weakness. The downward trend in the greenback remains in place, despite yesterday's bounce as short-sellers booked profits. As US Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin made clear last week, there are plenty of positives in having a weaker currency and for now the dollar's path of least resistance is down."

The US 10-year US Treasury yield pushed above the 2.7% level for the first time since April 2014 and the two-year yield hit its highest level since September 2008.

Eurozone sovereign bond yields were driven by comments from European Central Bank governing council member Klaas Knots, who said the European Central Bank's asset purchase programme should "as soon as possible". He argued that there is not a single reason left to continue the quantitative easing in the euro area and said the ECB's bond buying programme has already achieved "what could realistically be expected of it". Some fairly hawkish rhetoric from ECB board member Benoit Coeuré also was adding to the pressure under yields.

Meanwhile, the move higher in US yields was prompted by the prospect that US policymakers could well revise their forecasts higher for the US economy in light of the recent tax changes brought in by the Trump administration earlier this month. The Fed policy statement will be released on Wednesday night.

"The likelihood of a hike is near zero, and the fact that there is no press conference or update to economic projections means the statement will be in focus," said RBC Capital Markets. "But we think there will be important tweaks that will make this statement much more hawkish than the December version."

In other corporate news, Anglo American fell as it said the value of rough diamond sales for De Beers' first sales cycle of 2018 came to $665m.

Imperial Leather and Original Source maker PZ Cussons declined as it reported a drop in adjusted interim profit amid margin pressures and "tough" trading conditions, while CYBG was in the red despite posting a jump in first-quarter lending.

Irish convenience foods group Greencore reversed its earlier course to trade lower after saying revenue grew 54% in the 13 weeks to 29 December.

UDG Healthcare turned lower despite saying it expects adjusted earnings per share to rise by 18% to 21% in 2018 following strong trading in the first quarter, while Domino's Pizza also dropped despite saying it expects annual profit to beat market forecasts after a strong performance in the fourth quarter.

Zoopla and uSwitch operator ZPG moved higher initially but then fell later. It reported a good start to the financial year across both divisions, with its websites and mobile apps attracting 53 million average monthly visits during the three months to 31 December.

Shares in Randgold Resources was boosted by an announcement late on Monday that its Loulo-Gounkoto gold mining complex is on track to improve on its record performance in 2016, but the shares fell into the red late on.

Mediclinic was hit by a downgrade to neutral at UBS after its 20% rally from November's lows.

Bucking the trend were only 10 of the FTSE 100, led by Reckitt Benckiser as Credit Suisse reiterated its 'outperform' rating with a target of 7,500p.

Informa was up as it confirmed the takeover of smaller events rival UBM for £3.9bn, looking to create a business-to-business information giant that will operate as a single business by the start of 2019.

Film and television producer and distributor Entertainment One edged up after confirming that it had raised £53m in an placing with City institutions at a price of 305p as part of its plan to snap up the rest of US television producer The Mark Gordon Company.

Dechra Pharmaceuticals was boosted by an upgrade to buy at Jefferies.


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Share Tips for 2018

The Share Centre’s investment research analyst Ian Forrest, comments on five equities, an investment trust as well as an ETF that our expert research team think could flourish in 2018.  Read more. Capital at risk.


Hargreaves Lansdown

Top of the stocks

Number of Deals Bought

Place EPIC Equity name %
1 IQE IQE plc 2.45
2 SMT Scottish Mortgage Investment Trust 1.84
3 BOO Boohoo.com 1.33
4 FEVR Fevertree Drinks plc 1.31
5 NG. National Grid 1.30
6 LGEN Legal & General Group plc 1.21
7 LLOY Lloyds Banking Group plc 1.13
8 IMB Imperial Brands Group 1.09
9 SOPH Sophos Group plc 1.05
10 SXX Sirius Minerals plc 0.95

Number of Deals Sold

Place EPIC Equity name %
1 IQE IQE plc 2.75
2 LLOY Lloyds Banking Group plc 2.52
3 BARC Barclays plc 1.33
4 NG. National Grid 1.13
5 GSK GlaxoSmithKline plc 0.95
6 FEVR Fevertree Drinks plc 0.91
7 EZJ easyJet plc 0.91
8 BOO Boohoo.com 0.88
9 SXX Sirius Minerals plc 0.77
10 PRSM Blue Prism plc 0.76

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Cryptocurrencies Report

Top Cryptocurrencies

# Name Market Cap($) Price(%) Change Price Graph(3m)
1 Bitcoin (BTC) 190,773,058,196 10,335 -8.04%
2 Ethereum (ETH) 116,198,773,627 1,103.1 -7.7%
3 Ripple (XRP) 51,937,181,375 1.15 -11.35%
4 Bitcoin Cash / BCC (BCH) 28,488,145,957 1,532.2 -9.07%

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US Market Report

US open: Stocks slump as bond yields rise further, healthcare sector weighs

US equity markets were sharply lower in early trade on Tuesday, resuming the selloff from the previous session amid rising bond yields, with healthcare stocks under pressure.

At 1530 GMT, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was down 1% to 26,185.84, the S&P 500 was 0.8% lower at 2,831.55 and the Nasdaq was off 0.7% to 7,412.06.

The healthcare sector suffered some of the heaviest losses after Amazon, Berkshire Hathaway and JPMorgan Chase said they would partner up in an effort to cut healthcare costs and improve services for US employees.

Meanwhile, yields on the 10-year US Treasury continued to edge higher, rising to 2.71%, having breached 2.7% for the first time since April 2014 on Monday.

Investors were looking ahead to a State of the Union address by President Trump and keeping an eye on the first day of the Federal Reserve's two-day rate-setting meeting, particularly as the move higher in bond yields has been attributed to expectations that US policymakers could revise their US economy forecasts higher in light of the recent tax changes brought in by the Trump administration.

Spreadex analyst Connor Campbell said: "The Dow Jones plunged a stomach-churning 300 points after the bell, hitting an eight-day low of just under 26,150 as investors stared down the barrel of an incredibly hectic rest of the week. There's the unknown of this evening's State of the Union address from Donald Trump; the first Fed meeting of the year on Wednesday, with rising bond yields suggesting something hawkish; and a non-farm Friday that may become even more important than normal dependant on what the central bank say mid-week.

"Interestingly the dollar, which had been mounting something of a comeback as recent as this morning, completely gave up the ghost this Tuesday afternoon. Having at one point fallen below $1.40, cable jumped 0.4% to re-cross $1.41, while against the euro the greenback shed 0.3%, allowing the single currency back above $1.24."

In corporate news, healthcare group Aetna fell despite posting a 75% surge in quarterly profit, while pharmaceutical company Pfizer was also weaker even after its fourth-quarter earnings surpassed expectations and its revenue forecasts for 2018 came in ahead of estimates.

Harley-Davidson slumped after it said that 2017 shipments were at the low end of expectations, while McDonald's nudged lower despite its quarterly earnings and sales beating forecasts.

Still to come later this week, earnings are due from Apple, Alphabet and Amazon.

The latest data from the Conference Board was a bright spot on Tuesday, showing that US consumer confidence rose in January following a drop the month before and helping the Dow to trim some of its losses.

The Conference Board's consumer confidence index rose to 125.4 from December's reading of 123.1, which was revised up from 122.1 previously. Analysts had been expecting a reading of 123.0.

The present situation index fell slightly to 155.3 from 156.5, while the expectations index rose to 105.5 this month from 100.8 in December.

Lynn Franco, director of economic indicators at the Conference Board, said: "Consumer confidence improved in January after declining in December. Consumers' assessment of current conditions decreased slightly, but remains at historically strong levels. Expectations improved, though consumers were somewhat ambivalent about their income prospects over the coming months, perhaps the result of some uncertainty regarding the impact of the tax plan.

"Overall, however, consumers remain quite confident that the solid pace of growth seen in late 2017 will continue into 2018."

Elsewhere, US house price growth was as expected in November, according to the S&P/Case-Shiller National Home Price Index.

The 20-city index rose 6.4% on the year, up from 6.3% growth the previous month and in line with economists' expectations.

Meanwhile, the national home price NSA index covering all nine US census divisions was up 6.2% on the year, compared to a 6.1% increase the month before.

Seattle, Las Vegas, and San Francisco reported the highest year-over-year gains among the 20 cities. Seattle led the way with a 12.7% year-over-year price increase, followed by Las Vegas with a 10.6% rise and San Francisco with a 9.1% increase.


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Broker Tips

Broker tips: ASOS, Dechra Pharmaceuticals, Mediclinic

ASOS can quadruple revenue in the next decade, Goldman Sachs analysts said as the investment bank increased its share price target for the online fashion retailer.

Goldman analysts, led by Richard Edwards, set a new price target for ASOS shares of 7,300p ?" up from their previous target of 6,100p.

The analysts stuck with their 'neutral' rating for the stock. At 12:44 GMT ASOS shares were up 0.5% at 7,466p.

"The ASOS investment plans, which centre on fashion-right product, technology velocity, and customer enhancements (try before you buy, ASOS Instant, same-day delivery), are delivering impressive revenue progress … and we expect this will continue across FY18. This rate of market share gain is consistent with our longer-term view that ASOS can increase revenue 4x by 2028," the analysts wrote in a note to clients.

Jefferies upgraded its stance on veterinary pharmaceutical company Dechra Pharmaceuticals to 'buy' from 'hold' and lifted the price target to 2,322p from 2,221p following the group's acquisition of Dutch firms AST Farma and Le Vet

The bank reckons these two deals give Dechra a springboard both to grow the pipeline and improve its reach into the EU. It said that despite the share price rally on the back of the deals, market consensus should still move higher when visibility improves on mid-term drivers.

Jefferies pointed out that as a result of the acquisitions, Dechra will gain access to a broad portfolio of over 90 products marketed in the Netherlands, 60 of which are sold in the EU. It will also gain 30 pipeline products.

UBS downgraded Mediclinic to 'neutral' from 'buy' as the risk-reward ratio "now looks more balanced" and the stock recovered from its low in November.

In late November, with the stock hitting an all-time low after falling more than a third since the start of 2017, the Swiss bank had lifted its rating on the stock as it felt structural and other challenges such as doctor numbers in UAE, tariffs and patient mix in Switzerland were baked in and "we thought an inflection point was near" and market expectations for long-term margins in Switzerland and Abu Dhabi were felt to have become overly cautious.

"We believe expectations for long-term margins now appear more reasonable/optimistic," UBS moved its rating back as it looked for "further evidence of operational delivery to turn more positive".

However, analysts increased their earnings per share estimates by around 4-6% due to forex adjustments and so hiked the price target to 650p from 600p.

 

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