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Jan 10, 2018

Evening Euro Markets Bulletin

 
ADVFN III Evening Euro Markets Bulletin
Daily world financial news Wednesday, 10 January 2018 18:50:35
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Share Tips for 2018

The Share Centre’s investment research analyst Ian Forrest, comments on five equities, an investment trust as well as an ETF that our expert research team think could flourish in 2018.  Read more. Capital at risk.


London Market Report
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London close: Stocks mixed amid retailers' updates, banks wanted

London stocks finished on a mixed note on Wednesday, as investors digested the latest reading on industrial production, with retailers in focus again following updates from Sainsbury’s, Ted Baker and Superdry.

The FTSE 100 gained 0.23% or 17.49 points to trade at 7,748.51, easing back after hitting a record intraday high of 7,756.11 earlier, having closed at a fresh peak of 7,731.02 the day before.

In parallel, the second-tier index was off by 0.55% or 114.95 points at 20,760.00.

Meanwhile, the pound was down 0.42% against the euro at 1.1295 as the single currency was helped by an increase in German bond yields in response to the Bank of Japan's decision the day before to trim its stimulus package. Sterling was also 0.18% lower versus the greenback at 1.3512.

Significantly 10-year Gilts were little changed even as bond yields climbed around the world, boosted by that decision from the BoJ and reports that China might be mulling buying less US debt, in part due to trade frictions.

Data released on Wednesday morning showed that UK industrial production notched up its strongest run of growth in 23 years as output from the manufacturing sector rose more than expected.

Industrial production increased 0.4% in November compared to the previous month, which had been expected by economists, up from October's figure which was revised up to 0.2% from the flat month initially recorded. This was the eighth monthly rise in a row, a feat last achieved in 1994.

Year on year, this means IP was 2.5% higher in November, versus a 1.8% consensus forecast and down from a revised 4.3% a month before.

Manufacturing production was also up 0.4%, but was only expected to increase 0.3%, while October's figure was revised up to 0.3% from 0.1%. November's output was up 3.5% on the prior year, above the 2.8% consensus forecast, with October revised up to 4.7%.

UK construction output disappointed however, rising 0.4% when a 0.8% increase had been expected after the previous month was revised down to a decline of 1.1%. Furthermore, in the latest three months output was down 2.0% compared to the prior three months, the largest decline since 2012.

Pantheon Macroeconomics economist Samuel Tombs said: "On the face of it, industry is on track to bolster GDP growth again in Q4; the average level of production in October and November exceeded Q3's level by 0.9%. But the closure of the Forties oil pipeline in the North Sea - which carries about one-third of oil and gas output - for most of December suggests that total industrial production plunged by about 2.0% month-to-month in the final month of 2017.

"As such, we estimate that total production rose by just 0.3% quarter-on-quarter in Q4 and contributed a mere 0.05 percentage points to GDP growth, down from 0.19pp in Q3. Meanwhile, the recent rise in oil prices likely will undermine the industrial sector's recovery this year."

Corporate news was all about the retailers again, with Sainsbury's up as it said that following a solid Christmas trading period and a better-than-expected contribution from Argos, full year profits are now likely to beat the current consensus forecast.

Fashion retailer Ted Baker rallied as it hailed a 'good' performance over the Christmas, with retail sales up 9%, and said full-year results should be in line with its expectations.

Trendy fashion outlet Superdry went the other way, however, after saying underlying half year pre-tax profits rose 20.5% to £25.3m as online sales helped to boost revenue along with forex tailwinds.

Meanwhile, banks lent support, with Asia-focused Standard Chartered and HSBC among the top gainers following a rise in Chinese inflation overnight. StanChart was also lifted by a broker upgrade, while all of the sector may have been boosted by the reaction in yields after Japan's surprise reduction in bond buying.

Marks & Spencer rose after appointing Humphrey Singer - currently group finance director at Dixons Carphone - to replace Helen Weir as chief finance officer.

Housebuilder Taylor Wimpey was in the red as it said 2017 results would be in line with forecasts, despite adding that it expects to achieve further growth and performance improvement in 2018.

Paddy Power Betfair fell after it appointed Dan Taylor to the newly-create role of chief executive officer of Europe and Barni Evans as CEO of its Australian operations, Sportsbet, while Tullow Oil nudged a touch lower despite a positive trading statement.

Aerospace and defence engineer Senior advanced after saying a good performance in November and December and a benefit from US tax changes will see earnings come in higher than expected, while recruiter Pagegroup surged as it said it had a "record" year in 2017.

Centamin rose after a better-than-expected production update, Marshalls was in the black after reporting an 8% jump a jump in full-year revenue and expressing confidence in meeting its 2017 expectations.

OneSavings Bank was under the cosh after JC Flowers sold off a 10% stake in the company at 390p per share.

IG and CMC Markets were down after the Financial Conduct Authority raised concerns again about marketing of CFDs to retail investors.

In broker note action, Hikma Pharmaceuticals slumped after a downgrade to 'underperform' at Jefferies.

RBS was boosted by an upgrade to 'overweight' at Morgan Stanley, Standard Chartered was up after an upgrade to 'neutral' at Redburn and Metro Bank rose after an upgrade to 'neutral' at Citi.


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Europe Market Report
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Europe close: Stocks mixed amid resurgent bond yields

European stocks finished the session in mixed fashion amid a jump in the euro's value and sharp gains in German government bond yields.

Contributing to those moves, early in the session a Bloomberg report cited Chinese sources according to whom officials in Beijing had recommended slowing or stopping purchases of US government debt, deeming it less attractive and due to trade tensions.

As a result, at the closing bell the US dollar spot index was 0.29% lower to 92.26.

In parallel, the benchmark Stoxx 600 was down by 0.38% to 398.60, alongside a 0.78% drop in the exporter-heavy German Dax to 13,281.34.

Periphery stocks on the other hand fared better, with the FTSE Mibtel adding 0.66% to 23,157.42 and the Ibex 35 little changed at up by 0.02% to 10,428.30.

Nevertheless, as economists at Capital Economics pointed out, China had in fact not been buying US debt for the better part of the last few years. Furthermore, due to its crawling -peg versus the Greenback, they in fact had little choice when it came to the composition of their FX reserves.

Commenting on the market backdrop, Chris Beauchamp at IG said: "Like a ghost from the past, the US ten-year yield is back on the agenda today. The decades-long downtrend in the yield is under threat again, and the usual suspects are out proclaiming this will sound the death-knell of the equity rally. This sounds awfully like one of those predictions that, six months down the line, seems very silly.

"After all, this equity rally has survived a lot worse. As if to underline this fact, markets in the UK, US and Europe are all off the lows of the day. It will take more than just a shift in Chinese bond buying to undo this bull market. Indeed, the S&P 500 looks primed to register more record highs before earnings season gets underway in earnest on Friday, having held above the lows seem on Monday."

Further weighing on sentiment, German Bund yields were sharply higher, gaining eight basis points to 0.54%, although analysts at Unicredit Research attributed the move to the upcoming sale of a new benchmark 10-year issue which was expected to trade seven basis points higher than the old one.

Also on the economic front, according to INSEE French industrial production shrank by 0.5% month-on-month in November, leading to a decline in the year-on-year rate of increase from 5.5% to 2.5% (consensus: 3.0%).

Despite the weak reading, led by a 3.7% decline on the month in output of machinery and equipment, economists at Pantheon Macroeconomics said that 'all-in-all' recent readings were still pointing to a "punchy" 1.7% rise in total output for the quarter as a whole.

Meanwhile, in the corporate patch, shares of Continental were under pressure after it said it was in the early stages of discussions to restructure the German auto parts and tire manufacturer.

French president Emmanuel Macron announced Airbus would soon ink a deal to sell 184 Airbus A320s to China. During the same trip to the Asian giant, Dassault Systemes said it had entered into a strategic cooperation agreement with China Aerospace Science and Technology Corporation.


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Hargreaves Lansdown

Top of the stocks

Number of Deals Bought

Place EPIC Equity name %
1 SOPH Sophos Group plc 3.28
2 LGEN Legal & General Group plc 2.11
3 BOO Boohoo.com 1.90
4 OXB Oxford Biomedica plc 1.16
5 GSK GlaxoSmithKline plc 1.10
6 SMT Scottish Mortgage Investment Trust 1.08
7 LLOY Lloyds Banking Group plc 1.05
8 SXX Sirius Minerals plc 0.96
9 XBT Provider AB 0.96
10 GGP Greatland Gold Plc 0.87

Number of Deals Sold

Place EPIC Equity name %
1 LLOY Lloyds Banking Group plc 2.14
2 BOO Boohoo.com 1.63
3 BP. BP Plc 1.14
4 GGP Greatland Gold Plc 1.09
5 GSK GlaxoSmithKline plc 0.87
6 PLUS Plus500 Ltd 0.87
7 SXX Sirius Minerals plc 0.84
8 BT.A BT Group plc 0.84
9 IQE IQE plc 0.82
10 XBT Provider AB 0.81

Cryptocurrencies Report

Top Cryptocurrencies

# Name Market Cap($) Price(%) Change Price Graph(3m)
1 Bitcoin (BTC) 247,661,049,438 14,570.64 -0.99%
2 Ethereum (ETH) 129,233,113,022 1,377.43 +24.54%
3 Ripple (XRP) 77,651,836,982 1.97 -17.6%
4 Bitcoin Cash / BCC (BCH) 46,323,730,530 2,690.76 +15.08%

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US Market Report

US open: Banks jump again as bond yields continue advance

Wall Street is trading on the back foot after a report that China might be mulling not buying US government debt sent longer-term Treasury yields to their highest in almost a year.

At 1600 GMT, the Dow Jones Industrials Average was lower by 0.14% or 34.98 points to 25,351.75, alongside a 0.17% or 4.62 point dip for the S&P 500 to 2,746.30 and a fall of 0.39% or 27.87 points for the Nasdaq Composite to 7,135.74.

Earlier, Bloomberg reported that some Chinese officials had recommended slowing down US debt purchases or ceasing all together because it was now less attractive relative to other possible investments and due to trade frictions.

That saw the yield on the benchmark 10-year US Treasury note climb as high as 2.60% before the opening bell, which was just three basis points below the early-2017 highs, although it had since fallen back to 2.58%.

In the background, Bill Gross at Janus Henderson Group, who some in markets called the 'Bond King', proclaimed the end of the near three-decade long 'bull' market, pointing to a break-out in 25-year trend lines in five and 10-year Treasuries.

On Tuesday, the main indices notched record highs, while the benchmark 10-year US Treasury yield hit its highest level since March, breaching 2.5%. The move in Treasuries came after the Bank of Japan decided to scale back its monthly bond purchases.

Oanda analyst Craig Erlam commented: "If the reports turn out to be true and China no longer sees Treasuries as an attractive option, the repercussions could be significant as the country is one of the biggest holders of US debt. A significant change in policy could put considerable upside pressure on US yields, the result of which would be an effective tightening for the US.

"[...] The tightening effect of such measures would likely have an impact on how many times the Federal Reserve raises interest rates this year, which is why we've seen a corresponding drop in the dollar. The euro has spiked back above 1.20 against the dollar on the back of the reports before settling just below, while cable has moved back into the green on the day having been down around half a percent earlier in the session."

On the economic front, US import prices rose by 0.1% on the month in December, falling short of the 0.4% increase forecast by economists.

From a sector standpoint, the best performing areas of the market were: Aluminum (2.69%), Airlines (2.01%) and Biotechnology (1.95%).

Banks were again moving higher too, with the KBW sector gauge up by 1.58% to 111.66.

In corporate news, Sears was in focus after saying it has raised $100m in new financing and is looking to raise another $200m from other counterparties.

Shares in Supervalu were also active, plummeting after the release of the retailer's third-quarter numbers, while Eastman Kodak surged after the company said it was launching a cryptocurrency.

United Continental Holdings rose after the airline said late on Tuesday that traffic was up 2.7% on the year in December.

Technology giant Apple was a touch lower after it faced new question from the US and France over its battery-related performance issues with iPhones.

Later in the day, at 1830 GMT, St. Louis Fed President James Bullard will give a presentation at a 2018 Economic Outlook event in St. Louis.


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Broker Tips

Broker tips: G4S, BP, Shell, Ashtead

Security services and solutions outsourcer G4S is approaching a trough in its growth profile thanks to its leadership position in the cash handling market, supported by quicker growth in emerging markets, analysts at UBS said.

On the back of all of the above, the Swiss broker lifted its target for the shares from 300p to 310p and raised its recommendation for the stock from 'neutral' to 'buy'.

In fact, excluding one-off installation work, growth had been relatively stable at between 2% and 4%, and as it began delivering on its pipeline of new cash solutions that would accelerate to between 5% and 6% over the second half of 2018, with an inflection point being reached during the second quarter, UBS said.

"Our detailed review indicates G4S's solution is more developed than those of its peers (bank agnostic). The growth should be a net positive for margins, given the high-margin service component: we forecast 15bps/10bps of margin expansion in 2018/19," Bilal Aziz, Rory McKenzie and Denis Moreau said in a research note sent to clients.

There was also upside to be had from consolidation in its industry given the structural trend towards lower rates of cash usage.

 

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