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Jan 24, 2018

Evening Euro Markets Bulletin

 
ADVFN III Evening Euro Markets Bulletin
Daily world financial news Wednesday, 24 January 2018 21:13:37
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The Top 10 Stocks for 2018

What does the year hold for these 10 blue chips?

A look at some of the key themes in the coming 12-months, the key numbers from 2017, FTSE 100 companies that reached record highs… and those that fell to all-time lows, and our Top Stock Picks for 2018. Losses can exceed deposits.

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London Market Report
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London close: Pound surges to post-Brexit high and wallop FTSE stocks

London blue chip stocks fell to their worse finish since Christmas on Wednesday as the pound surged to a post-Brexit high against the dollar after solid UK employment data.

The FTSE 100 lost 88 points or 1.14% to finish at 7,643.43, as the pound jumped 1.4% against the dollar to 1.4204, the biggest daily rise in more than nine months to regain levels not seen since before the Brexit vote. The pound was also much firmer versus the euro, up 0.7% to 1.1464.

The pound was already enjoying a strong performance amid hopes of a 'soft' Brexit but took another leg higher mid-morning, as data showed UK employment hit a record high in November. According to the Office for National Statistics, total employment increased by 102,000 in the quarter to November to 32.2m, taking the employment rate to 75.3%.

Meanwhile, the unemployment rate held steady at 4.3%, its lowest level since 1975, while average wage growth for the three-month period to November strengthened to 2.4%, up from 2.3% the month before but still well below the rate of inflation, meaning that in real terms, pay is still negative.

Although the employment data sparked a spike higher in sterling, its strength was also partly down to weakness in the greenback, which was hit by comments from US Treasury Secretary Mnuchin, who said at a press conference in Davos that a weaker dollar is good for the country's economy "as it relates to trade and opportunities".

Neil Wilson, senior market analyst at ETX Capital, said it was the dollar driving sterling records, with Mnuchin having "done a first class job of whacking the dollar".

"The strong dollar doctrine is one that markets are used to and to a degree we are entering relatively uncharted waters when the US government is not at least paying lip service to that," he added. "This should not come as a huge surprise ?" Trump had already made it pretty clear he didn't like the strong dollar ?" saying over the last year that it is 'too strong' and that 'lots of bad things happen with a strong dollar'. He should be careful what he wishes for."

In corporate news, dollar-dependent companies, led by Ashtead and BAE Systems, which have made hay from the pound's post-referendum slump as a weaker pound boosts earnings derived from overseas, saw their chickens come home to roost as the greenback took a bruising.

Accounting software developer Sage slumped even more after it increased sales slightly below target in the first three months of its financial year as it invested "heavily" in sales training to allow sales to accelerate in coming months.

"Investors have little to carp about, given the strong growth in its North America unit, so today's weakness is down to that old favourite, 'profit taking'," said Chris Beauchamp at IG. "The firm's business is never going to inspire the kind of excitement you get in tech firms like Ocado, but even at 23 times earnings the firm does not look unduly overpriced."

Chile focused miner Antofagasta was on the back foot after it said full-year copper production fell 0.7% to 704,300 tonnes, in line with guidance. Other miners were mixed, with BHP Billiton down but Glencore and precious metals producers Randgold and Fresnillo all higher as gold rose and the latter reported record annual silver production in its fourth quarter production update.

Housebuilder Crest Nicholson slipped after reporting a rise in full-year pre-tax profit, with revenue and volumes edging up, as it announced that Patrick Bergin has been promoted to the role of chief executive officer with effect from 22 March.

WH Smith fell as the retailer posted a drop in sales over the Christmas period, mostly on the back of a weaker performance from its high street stores.

Polymetal was in the red as it reiterated its fourth-quarter production guidance and said there will be no special dividend for 2017. Gold production was up 8% year-on-year to 405,000 ounces for the final quarter and helped take annual production to 1.43m ounces, a rise of 13% and above guidance of 1.4m.

The top blue chip riser was the London Stock Exchange Group after analysts at Morgan Stanley forecast upside surprise as ahead of full year results on 2 March. Fourth-quarter volumes across secondary markets have been robust and this has carried on into 2018 with volumes year-to-date around 20% year-on-year on a like for like basis.

Pub group Wetherspoon rallied as it said that year-to-date, underlying pre-tax profit is slightly ahead of its expectations.

Morgan Advanced Materials nudged up after saying it expects changes to the US tax system to cut its US tax rate to between 28% and 29% from 30%.

In broker note action, Marks & Spencer and Dixons Carphone were hit by downgrade to 'underperform' and 'neutral' at Credit Suisse, while NMC Health was lower after a downgrade to 'neutral' at JPMorgan.

William Hill was boosted by an upgrade to 'hold' at HSBC, while Countrywide was up on the back of an upgrade to 'hold' at Berenberg, as the company announced the resignation of CEO Alison Platt.


Share Tips for 2018

The Share Centre’s investment research analyst Ian Forrest, comments on five equities, an investment trust as well as an ETF that our expert research team think could flourish in 2018.  Read more. Capital at risk.


Europe Market Report
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Europe close: Markets firmly in the red as Suez lies wounded

European shares finished lower on Wednesday, as the utilities sector was hit by a profits warning at France's Suez.

The benchmark pan-European STOXX 600 index ended the day down 0.37% at 401.31, as were most major European bourses.

In Paris, the CAC 40 was down 0.72%, while Germany's DAX lost 1.07% to 13,414.74 and the IBEX 35 in Spain fell 0.44% to 10,563.00.

Across the channel, London's FTSE 100 was off 1.14% at 7,643.43, while the more domestic-focussed FTSE 250 slipped 0.64% to 20,538.46.

Suez shares plunged 19% at one stage, before closing 16.77% into the red after the waste and water company revised down its 2017 earnings forecast due to extra costs in Spain.

It also revealed it would be closing down some contracts in Morocco and India.

In the UK the FTSE 100 was hit by a stronger pound, with most of the index's constituent companies trade in dollars and are sensitive to exchange rate movements.

The dollar weakened further, suffering a renewed sell after US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said it this was good for trade.

In corporate news, accounting software developer Sage retreated 6.48% after it increased sales slightly below target in the first three months of its financial year as it invested "heavily" in sales training to allow sales to accelerate in coming months.

Chile-focused miner Antofagasta was on the back foot by 0.66% after it said full-year copper production fell 0.7% to 704,300 tonnes, in line with guidance.

Pharma stocks received a boost as Switzerland's Novartis rose 2.75%, having reported stronger than expected full year sales and profits.

Fourth quarter net sales rose 2% year-on-year to $12.9bn on a constant currency basis, with full year sales up 2% to $49.1bn.


Hargreaves Lansdown

Top of the stocks

Number of Deals Bought

Place EPIC Equity name %
1 GGP Greatland Gold Plc 2.35
2 BOO Boohoo.com 1.90
3 XBT Provider AB 1.86
4 LGEN Legal & General Group plc 1.49
5 SXX Sirius Minerals plc 1.18
6 LION Lionsgold Limited 1.15
7 VRS Versarien plc 1.14
8 XBT Provider AB 1.12
9 DTY Dignity plc 1.11
10 PFG Provident Financial plc 1.08

Number of Deals Sold

Place EPIC Equity name %
1 LLOY Lloyds Banking Group plc 2.33
2 GGP Greatland Gold Plc 2.26
3 XBT Provider AB 1.73
4 XBT Provider AB 1.27
5 GKN GKN plc 1.24
6 IQE IQE plc 1.20
7 Verizon Communications Inc 1.17
8 BOO Boohoo.com 1.02
9 PMO Premier Oil Plc 0.96
10 LION Lionsgold Limited 0.96

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Cryptocurrencies Report

Top Cryptocurrencies

# Name Market Cap($) Price(%) Change Price Graph(3m)
1 Bitcoin (BTC) 190,593,216,045 11,201.24 +3.63%
2 Ethereum (ETH) 101,298,482,149 1,036.14 +5.33%
3 Ripple (XRP) 52,851,425,146 1.34 +0.98%
4 Bitcoin Cash / BCC (BCH) 27,937,713,180 1,644.96 +2.06%

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US Market Report

US open: Stocks rally amid earnings deluge; Mnuchin comments weigh on dollar

US stocks rallied in early trade on Wednesday as investors digested a slew of earnings reports and some mixed data points, with the dollar under the cosh following comments from Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin.

At 1530 GMT, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 0.6% to 26,371.06, the S&P 500 was 0.4% firmer at 2,850.86 and the Nasdaq was up 0.3% to 7,480.89.

In currency markets, the dollar tumbled against the pound, extending its slide from earlier to trade down 1.4% to 0.7044 as sterling hit a post-Brexit high against the US currency following the release of solid UK employment data.

The greenback was also being dragged lower by comments from Treasury Secretary Mnuchin, who said at a press conference in Davos that a weaker dollar is good for the country's economy "as it relates to trade and opportunities".

The US currency also suffered losses against the euro, which rose to three-year high as IHS Markit's composite flash purchasing managers' index for the eurozone rose to 58.6 in January, marking highest level since June 2006.

Spreadex analyst Connor Campbell said: "Though the UK jobs report was decent, the highlight being another minor fall in unemployment, the thrust of cable's growth is coming from the dollar's bruised and battered start to 2018.

"Despite ostensibly having the end of the US government shutdown to cheer about the dollar found little room for positivity this Wednesday, almost solely due to Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin's appearance at the World Economic Forum in Davos. At a press conference Mnuchin argued that a weaker dollar was better for the US economy for trade reasons, a comment that was tantamount to kicking an already very sickly dog."

In corporate news, Comcast and United Technologies advanced after their quarterly earnings beat expectations.

Starbucks nudged up after the coffee chain said its workers would be getting pay rises, while McDermott International surged after lifting its 2017 earnings expectations and issuing 2018 guidance that was above consensus.

General Dynamics rallied after a fourth-quarter earnings beat, even as revenue missed expectations, while shares in Royal Caribbean cruised higher after the company reported a 10% jump in quarterly profit.

On the downside, United Continental tumbled after its fourth-quarter earnings release late on Tuesday and Qualcomm nudged down as the European Commission slapped a €997m fine on the chip maker, saying it paid billions of dollars to Apple, a key customer, so that it would not buy from rivals.

General Electric was also a little weaker as its fourth-quarter earnings fell short of expectations at the top and bottom line, while Rockwell Automation was on the back foot after it posted a fiscal first-quarter loss of $236.4m.

Puma Biotechnology nosedived after a European regulatory panel signalled on Tuesday that it was unlikely to give a positive opinion on the company's breast cancer drug.

Still to come, Ford Motor was due to report earnings after the close.

Data releases were mixed. According to preliminary figures out earlier, activity in the US manufacturing sector unexpectedly improved in January.

IHS Markit's flash manufacturing index printed at 55.5 this month, up from 55.1 in December and pointing to the sharpest improvement in manufacturing business conditions since March 2015. Economists had been expecting the index to slip to 55.0.

Meanwhile, the flash services business activity index fell to 53.3 from 53.7 in December, hitting a nine-month lower and missing expectations for a nudge up to 54.0.

The composite output index - which measures activity in both sectors - declined to 53.8 in January from 54.1 the month before, hitting an eight-month low but coming in above expectations for a reading of 53.5.

Data from the National Association of Realtors was less upbeat, however. It showed US existing-home sales fell 3.6% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.57m in December from a downwardly revised 5.78m in November, versus expectations for a smaller drop of 2.2%.


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Broker Tips

Broker tips: Countrywide, Just Group, SSP Group

Expecting strategic announcements from Countrywide's first market update following its recent profit warning, analysts at Berenberg said if the firm could find room for investment to improve its competitive positioning, brighter days could be ahead.

Berenberg upped its recommendation on Countrywide to 'hold' on Wednesday, stating that if the group was to invest in technology to reduce the cost of delivering its core sales and lettings business and come up with a reasonable digital strategy, it could see a swift return to form.

Countrywide's dwindling core sales and lettings business was behind the profit warning, with management now expecting EBITDA to be approximately £65m, 12% shy of a consensus forecast of £73.8m.

Berenberg lowered its forecast numbers after the profit warning while reiterating its target of 95p along with the upgrade until Countrywide's trading update on 8 March.

"We reduce our 2018 EPS by 8% and 2019 by 6%. We now value Countrywide on 7.5x our 2018 P/E, implying our 95p price target. The 5% downside implies our Hold recommendation," the analysts noted.

Barclays upped its target for SSP Group to 700p after the travel food outlet operator's encouraging first-quarter update.

Continued positive momentum was music to Barclays' ears, with SSP's management upgrading full-year guidance for expected contract wins growth to 4%, leading to "attractive" compounding for total shareholder return.

The expected increase to contracts wins, coupled with a small upgrade from the recently announced acquisition of Stockheim Group, and a small forex downgrade means that Barclays full-year earnings before interest and tax forecast increases 3% to £181m and for earnings per share increases 2.3% to 22.5p.

Analysts at Canaccord Genuity remained impressed with SSP but retained their 'sell' rating on valuation grounds. The analysts upgraded their EPS forecasts by 5.7% to 22.8p for 2018, 7.3% to 25.6p for 2019 and by 9% to 28.7p for 2020.

Canaccord upped its target to 570p from 450p but retained the negative recommendation on valuation grounds, adding "the stock remains vulnerable to any market pull-back, in our view".

Numis reiterated its 'buy' rating on retirement specialist Just Group on Wednesday, saying any discount in the share price for a stock overhang is likely to evaporate.

The brokerage noted reports of a 5.5% stake sale by private equity group Cinven on 22 January at 149p per share and said that if this took place, it would clear Cinven's residual holding in the group. This follows on from a 50m share sale by Permira earlier this month, which took it's holding down to 17.7% from 23%.

"The latest sale of stock has impacted the share price while the market absorbs it. Investors should now focus on the company's fundamentals and recent achievements, as any discount in the share price for a stock overhang is likely to evaporate," said Numis.

It pointed out that the company has maintained pricing discipline, which along with growing volumes and cost savings has seen its margins rise from 3.3% pro forma in 2015 to 8.9% in the first half of 2017. In addition, it has improved its Solvency II capital ratios from 136% to 150% and achieved an A+ IFS rating from Fitch.

 

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