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Jan 29, 2018

Evening Euro Markets Bulletin

 
ADVFN III Evening Euro Markets Bulletin
Daily world financial news Monday, 29 January 2018 18:26:14
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The Top 10 Stocks for 2018

What does the year hold for these 10 blue chips?

A look at some of the key themes in the coming 12-months, the key numbers from 2017, FTSE 100 companies that reached record highs… and those that fell to all-time lows, and our Top Stock Picks for 2018. Losses can exceed deposits.

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London Market Report
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London close: Stocks cling onto gains as pound slides

London stocks held on to slight gains on Monday as the pound slumped back and Wall Street started on the back foot but the UK's major miners saved the day as copper prices rose.

The FTSE 100 added just under six points to close at 7,671.53, though the mid caps of the FTSE 250 fell slightly.

Sterling slipped 0.7% against the dollar to 1.4060 as the greenback gained back some of the ground lost last week and worries emerged about the Brexit transition. Sterling was down 0.2% versus the euro at 1.1372. A weaker pound tends to underpin the top-flight index as around 70% of its constituents derive most of their earnings from overseas.

Sterling slipped against the dollar and the euro after fresh concerns about political uncertainty in the UK and a rebuff by the EU over Britain's position during a Brexit transition period.

After weeks of merciful quiet, UK-EU negotiations are looking like restarting "in a spirit of mutual acrimony", said market analyst Chris Beauchamp at IG.

He added: "The EU's frustration with the lack of a clear British offer has been reflected in their decision to deny the departing nation any official say during the transition period. This has been enough to take some heat out of sterling's rally, with the euro gaining against the pound and cable dropping back"

The pound fell against all major currencies after weekend reports that Prime Minister Theresa May could face a leadership challenge with her Conservative MPs divided over the course of Brexit. Meanwhile, the EU ruled out Britain having a say on policy matters after March 2019 when the country will start an interim period that could last two years as it prepares to leave the bloc.

Traders were "salivating with excitement" at the prospect of volatility returning, Beauchamp said, with the VIX index back to highs last seen around two weeks ago.

But London's benchmark index only lumbered higher thanks to a strong performance from its heavily-weighted mining sector, as copper prices advanced to help lift shares in Glencore, Rio Tinto and Anglo American, even though usual effect of a stronger dollar is to push down commodities prices.

There were no major UK data releases due on Monday, though a meeting in Brussels will formally agree negotiating terms on the Brexit transition period.

Things will pick up on Tuesday with the release of UK net lending and mortgage approvals and an important Brexit debate in the House of Lords and get busier stateside too, with President Donald Trump's State of the Union Address, while the Fed meeting on Wednesday and non-farm payrolls on Friday will also be market highlights.

In corporate news, Anglo American rose after announcing the sale of the New Largo thermal coal project and Old New Largo closed colliery in South Africa for ZAR 850m ($71m).

After the close, Peppa Pig owner Entertainment One revealed it has agreed to acquire the remaining 49% share of the Mark Gordon Company following the successful performance of the business so far, with TV guru Mark Gordon to join the London-listed company as president and chief content officer.

Relx Group ticked up after agreeing to buy California-based security technology company ThreatMetrix for £580m in cash.

John Laing Infrastructure advanced as it said there would be "minimal" service disruption from the Carillion collapse but that it expects additional advisory and transaction costs to be approximately £3m in aggregate.

GKN nudged a touch lower as it looked to clear up a dispute over its pensions deficit as it battles to stave off a hostile takeover from smaller rival Melrose Industries. The FTSE 100 group said its group pension scheme's deficit stood at £0.7bn on one basis of accounting at the end of December, or could be as low as £0.4bn on an actuarial basis or as high as £1.4bn if gilt yields do not rise.

On the broker note front, Smurfit Kappa got a boost as Numis upped its price target on the stock to 2,800p from 2,600p ahead of its results on 7 February, while Shire was lifted by a bullish note from SocGen.

EasyJet flew lower after a downgrade to 'market perform' at Bernstein, while Diageo dropped after a downgrade to 'sector perform' at RBC Capital Markets and Polymetal was hit by a downgrade to 'underweight' at JPMorgan.


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Hargreaves Lansdown

Top of the stocks

Number of Deals Bought

Place EPIC Equity name %
1 IQE IQE plc 2.45
2 SMT Scottish Mortgage Investment Trust 1.84
3 BOO Boohoo.com 1.33
4 FEVR Fevertree Drinks plc 1.31
5 NG. National Grid 1.30
6 LGEN Legal & General Group plc 1.21
7 LLOY Lloyds Banking Group plc 1.13
8 IMB Imperial Brands Group 1.09
9 SOPH Sophos Group plc 1.05
10 SXX Sirius Minerals plc 0.95

Number of Deals Sold

Place EPIC Equity name %
1 IQE IQE plc 2.75
2 LLOY Lloyds Banking Group plc 2.52
3 BARC Barclays plc 1.33
4 NG. National Grid 1.13
5 GSK GlaxoSmithKline plc 0.95
6 FEVR Fevertree Drinks plc 0.91
7 EZJ easyJet plc 0.91
8 BOO Boohoo.com 0.88
9 SXX Sirius Minerals plc 0.77
10 PRSM Blue Prism plc 0.76

Cryptocurrencies Report

Top Cryptocurrencies

# Name Market Cap($) Price(%) Change Price Graph(3m)
1 Bitcoin (BTC) 190,773,058,196 11,344 -4.22%
2 Ethereum (ETH) 116,198,773,627 1,184.2 -5.01%
3 Ripple (XRP) 51,937,181,375 1.29 -5.52%
4 Bitcoin Cash / BCC (BCH) 28,488,145,957 1,670 -5.14%

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US Market Report

US open: Stocks fall after record highs as investors eye earnings; inflation data in focus

US stocks fell in early trade on Monday following another record close at the end of last week as the dollar rebounded, with investors digesting the latest inflation and spending data ahead of a busy week.

At 1530 GMT, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was down 0.2% to 26,566.90, while the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq were off 0.3% to 2,865.74 and 7,489.06, respectively.

Figures out earlier showed consumer spending rose 0.4% in December following an upwardly-revised 0.8% increase the month before, marking the biggest rise in household spending since 2011 and in line with expectations.

However, this came at the expense of the savings rate, as total savings fell to $351.6bn from $365.1bn a month earlier. The savings rate dropped to 2.4% from 2.5% in November, marking the the lowest since September 2005.

Elsewhere, the personal consumption expenditures index nudged up 0.1% last month, while the core rate that excludes food and energy was up 0.2%. On the year, the PCE index fell to 1.7% from 1.8%, while the core index was flat at 1.5%.

Spreadex analyst Connor Campbell said the inflation data was "solid". He pointed out that even though at 0.2% the latest core PCE price index still leaves the annual rate below the Federal Reserve's 2% target, the greenback has continued its comeback.

"From Tuesday onwards the week has a bombardment of economic news for investors to try and parse, including Donald Trump's State of the Union address, the first Federal Reserve meeting of 2018, the global manufacturing PMIs, a non-farm Friday and a string of updates from the world's biggest companies, including Apple, Alphabet, Amazon and Facebook. That's a lot to process, especially for the dollar, which may face a battle to hold onto its fragile turnaround."

In corporate news, Dr Pepper Snapple surged 25% after agreeing to merge with Keurig Green Mountain to form a beverage company with annual revenue of around $11bn.

Avon Products rallied following a report that activist investors are joining together to look for a buyer, while fuel cell company Ballard Power Systems gained ground following a positive outlook for 2017 results.

Aerospace and defence contractor Lockheed Martin advanced as its fourth-quarter revenue beat expectations and the company said profit will rise in 2018.

Abeona Therapeutics racked up strong gains as its cell therapy received a regenerative medicine advanced therapy designation from the Food and Drug Administration.

On the downside, shares in Apple dropped following reports that the technology giant could cut production of its iPhone X.

Marathon Petroleum gushed lower despite announcing a 15% dividend increase to 46 cents per share, while Wynn Resorts was in the red again following a report that chairman and chief executive Steve Wynn is facing sexual assault accusations.


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Broker Tips

Broker tips: Shire, Ocado, Diageo

Shire's valuation makes no sense and investors should buy shares in the UK pharmaceuticals company, according to analysts at Societe Generale.

The analysts said they were an "outlier on consensus estimates" on Shire because of other analysts' concerns that its haemophilia and severe facial swelling businesses are not sustainable and that the company cannot service its debts without its ADHD division.

"We strongly disagree," the analysts, led by Justin Smith, said in a note to investors. They urged clients to emulate Berkshire Hathaway's Charlie Munger "by trying to be consistently not stupid instead of trying to be very intelligent".

Market values suggest Shire's haemophilia business is worth £20 a share and the ADHD division is worth £10 a share. That leaves the rest of Shire's businesses trading at a price to equity ratio of three times and "this is simply unjustifiable", the analysts said.

The analysts reiterated their 'buy' recommendation and target of £8.

Credit Suisse upped its share price target to 600p from 480p for Ocado and reiterated its 'outperform' rating as it now expects "at least two" more third-party deals to be announced over the next 12 months.

Ocado earlier this month signed up its second major international customer less than two months after the first, with Canada's Sobey, with upfront fees upon signing and during the development phase, with ongoing payments linked to capacity and service criteria.

The Swiss bank noted that the Canadian deal uses the same contract structure as the contract with France's Casino signed at the end of November, with exclusivity for as long as a pre-determined capacity growth profile is met.

"We see this as compelling for both parties; partners can leverage the exclusivity while Ocado gets visibility without having to juggle multiple, potentially conflicting installations in any one country."

With share prices of both Casino and Sobeys climbing since their deals with Ocado, this is seen as providing "comfort" for the management teams and boards of potential partners.

The analysts also said they "don't agree with those who view Ocado as expensive" as the FTSE 250 company's shares trade at very high near-term multiples but this is "consistent with its growth profile and back-end weighted cash flows".

Diageo was "reluctantly" downgraded by RBC Capital Markets to 'sector perform' from 'outperform', with the price target cut to 2,400p from 2,600p.

RBC said it has been a long time since its recommendation depended not on what it anticipated about the trajectory of Diageo's "often erratic" financial performance, but what multiple to apply to that increasingly predictable financial performance.

"Diageo's business is in a good place and executing competently, but the shares' valuation reflects this."

The bank had been hoping that good interim results would allow it to bump up its forecasts and price target. Although the results were good, as hoped, RBC edged down its forecasts and adjusted present value-derived price target, meaning there was little alternative but to downgrade the stock.

While the company is in enviable position, with its biggest market remarkably robust compared to other categories and cash flow improving, it's not improving as much as the bank had hoped.

"In our view there's plenty of scope for both working and fixed capital to be managed more tightly, but we think investment will be less aggressively curtailed than we previously anticipated. Cash conversion, although much improved, looks set to remain in the bottom half of a peer group of consumer staples businesses."

 

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