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Jan 2, 2018

Evening Euro Markets Bulletin

 
ADVFN III Evening Euro Markets Bulletin
Daily world financial news Tuesday, 02 January 2018 18:44:54
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Stocks for your stocking this Christmas

As it’s the season for sharing Ian Forrest, investment research analyst at The Share Centre, comments on five companies that ‘yule’ likely see prosper as a result of the festive season.  Capital at risk.

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London Market Report
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London close: FTSE 100 slips as pound climbs to 2017-high

London stocks finished in the red following a steady start, weighed down by a stronger pound weighed on the top-flight index and a worse-than-expected reading on UK manufacturing.

The FTSE 100 ended the day down 0.52% at 7,648.10, retreating from last week, when the index ended the year at a record high of 7,687.77. At the same time, the pound was up 0.55% against the US dollar to 1.3594 - its high water mark of 2017 - and 0.37% higher versus the euro at 1.1282 as traders began to reposition for the New Year.

News earlier in the day that the Eurozone manufacturing sector ended 2017 with record growth served to lift the single currency to its best level in three years against the US dollar.

Miners reversed early losses to top the leaderboard on the heels of upbeat manufacturing data out of China, adding to the sector's strong rally at the end of 2017. By the close of trade in London, the FTSE 350 mining index had climbed 1.06% to change hands at 18,916.53, after China's Caixin manufacturing PMI came in ahead of expectations of 50.6 at 51.7 in December, up from 50.8 the month before.

The continuing downdraft in the US dollar also lent a helping hand, boosting the prices of some base and precious metals.

Nevertheless, some economists cautioned that Tuesday's reading on Chinese factory sector activity might be masking underlying weakness. That sentiment was echoed by traders at Sucden Financial.

"The start to 2018 saw LME prices maintain the steady tone, helped by a weakening USD and better than forecast China manufacturing PMI data for Dec. However, only tin and zinc made another new high, trading up to 20100 and 3352 and with the complex now sending out 'overbought' signals we could see a short - term correction unless fresh news propels the market higher," said Sucden Financial.

Meanwhile, data released earlier showed that growth in the UK manufacturing sector slowed more than expected in December.

The IHS/Markit CIPS manufacturing purchasing mangers' index fell to 56.3 last month from a 51-month high of 58.2 in November, missing expectations for a smaller drop to 58.0.

Still, the average reading of 57.0 over the final quarter of 2017 was the best since the second quarter of 2014.

Although December saw rates of expansion in output, new orders and employment slow from November's highs, growth in all three remained solid and well above long-run trends.

IG analyst Joshua Mahony said: "Sterling strength has been the undoing of the FTSE 100 this morning, as three-month highs in GBPUSD prove detrimental to the highly international index. This FTSE weakness comes amid a decline in UK listed miners, which have failed to push onwards despite the recent ascent in commodity prices. Interestingly, the strength we have seen in sterling comes despite a sharp downturn in the UK manufacturing PMI, which failed to sustain the November gains, falling back to the October reading of 86.3.

"The deterioration in today's UK manufacturing PMI, coupled with expectations of lower growth in 2018 has clearly been overshadowed by the deterioration in the US dollar, coupled with expectations that the BoE could raise rates yet again should inflation recede."

In corporate news, BT racked up healthy gains after an upgrade to 'buy' from Bank of America-Merrill Lynch, while ASOS edged higher after being raised to 'buy' from 'hold' at Deutsche Bank and GVC Holdings was boosted by an initiation at 'overweight' from Barclays.

However, Carpetright slumped as it was cut to 'hold' from 'buy' at Deutsche Bank

Marks & Spencer was also in the red after confirming the sale and franchise of its retail business in Hong Kong and Macau to its long-established franchise partner Al-Futtaim.

BP gushed lower after saying it expects changes to US tax rates to trigger a charge of about $1.5bn (£1.1bn) before benefiting the company in the long run. The oil company said lower corporate taxes under President Trump's plan require it to revalue its deferred tax assets and liabilities. BP expects the $1.5bn one-off cash charge to affect its fourth-quarter income statement.

Compass Group fell as it confirmed the death of its chief executive, Richard Cousins, and his family in a plane accident over the weekend, and said it has moved forward the date of his succession. The appointment of the catering group's European chief operating officer, Dominic Blakemore, as chief executive was moved forward to 1 January from 1 April.

BBA Aviation was on the back foot as it ended a seven-month search for a new chief executive by appointing internal candidate Mark Johnstone to run the company.

British Airways and Iberia owner IAG flew higher as it swooped-in to buy assets and invest in Niki, a former part of the collapsed Air Berlin group. IAG's Spanish budget arm, Vueling, will buy €20m of assets from the Austrian airline and provide up to €16.5m of liquidity to Niki, which will form part of a new, separately run Austrian subsidiary.

Airlines also benefitted from supportive comments out of analysts at JP Morgan.


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US Market Report

US open: Stocks start New Year on strong note

Wall Street looks headed to start the year firmly on the front foot, amid sizeable gains on all the main indices and against the backdrop of a weaker US dollar and heavy losses in Treasuries.

At 1614 GMT, the Dow Jones Industrials Average was up by 0.24% or 58.26 points at 24,777.48, alongside an advance of 0.66% or 17.65 points to 2,691.26 on the S&P 500 and an advance of 1.24% or 86.35 points for the Nasdaq Composite.

By industry groups, pacing gains at the start of the New Year were: Iron & Steel (3.07%), Industrial metals (3.02%) and Speciality Retailers (2.90%).

In the background, the US dollar spot index was 0.40% lower to 91.87, while the yield on the benchmark 10-year US Treasury note was climbing six basis points to 2.47%.

CMC Markets analyst David Madden said: "The Dow Jones, S&P 500 and NASDAQ 100 are all in positive territory as the bullish sentiment that was alive and well last year has slipped into 2018. Traders are still optimistic the US tax reforms will boost corporate profitability, and could see higher dividends and or stock buybacks. The weakness in the US dollar is also helping international investors gain exposure to the American markets.

"The US manufacturing report for December came in at 55.1, its highest reading since April 2015. The US economy is continuing to move in the right direction which is giving traders further reason to be optimistic about the stock market."

IHS Markit's factory sector purchasing managers' index for December climbed to 55.1 points - its best level since March 2015 - versus a reading of 53.9 for November.

"The combination of strengthening growth, a solid labour market and rising prices will add to expectations that the Fed will remain on track for another rate hike in the near future, with March looking a likely possibility," said Chris Williamson, chief business economist at IHS Markit.

Corporate news was sparse, although Apple was making headlines after analysts at Piper Jaffray reiterated their 'outperform' stance and $200 target for the iPhone maker, telling clients the company was in a "super-long cycle".

Software heavyweight Oracle on the other hand was under pressure on the heels of a report that Amazon.com and Salesforce.com were developing their own in-house database solutions.

Dow Jones - Risers

Walt Disney Co. (DIS) $110.82 2.76%
General Electric Co. (GE) $17.77 1.83%
Intel Corp. (INTC) $46.79 1.36%
Apple Inc. (AAPL) $171.37 1.26%
Dowdupont Inc. (DWDP) $72.11 1.25%
Nike Inc. (NKE) $63.11 0.90%
Cisco Systems Inc. (CSCO) $38.64 0.89%
Verizon Communications Inc. (VZ) $53.34 0.77%
Wal-Mart Stores Inc. (WMT) $99.48 0.74%
Chevron Corp. (CVX) $126.29 0.71%

Dow Jones - Fallers

Travelers Company Inc. (TRV) $133.40 -1.65%
3M Co. (MMM) $233.13 -1.11%
Procter & Gamble Co. (PG) $91.03 -0.93%
Caterpillar Inc. (CAT) $156.73 -0.54%
American Express Co. (AXP) $98.83 -0.48%
Coca-Cola Co. (KO) $45.78 -0.22%
United Technologies Corp. (UTX) $127.50 -0.06%
Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) $139.68 -0.03%
Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (GS) $255.18 0.16%
JP Morgan Chase & Co. (JPM) $107.17 0.22%

S&P 500 - Risers

Advance Auto Parts (AAP) $106.97 7.29%
Endo International Plc (ENDP) $8.15 5.10%
Southwestern Energy Co. (SWN) $5.85 4.84%
Micron Technology Inc. (MU) $43.05 4.70%
AutoZone Inc. (AZO) $744.53 4.66%
Baxter International Inc. (BAX) $67.60 4.58%
Tenet Healthcare Corp. (THC) $15.85 4.52%
O'Reilly Automotive Inc. (ORLY) $251.18 4.42%
Nordstrom Inc. (JWN) $49.44 4.35%
United States Steel Corp. (X) $36.71 4.32%

S&P 500 - Fallers

VeriSign Inc. (VRSN) $110.92 -3.08%
SCANA Corp. (SCG) $38.87 -2.34%
Wynn Resorts Ltd. (WYNN) $164.90 -2.19%
Chubb Corp. (CB) $143.28 -2.13%
XL Group Ltd (XL) $34.44 -2.05%
Marriott International - Class A (MAR) $133.26 -1.82%
Brown Forman Corp. Class B (BF.B) $67.44 -1.79%
Eaton Corporation plc (ETN) $77.68 -1.76%
PG&E Corp. (PCG) $44.07 -1.70%
Southern Co. (SO) $47.28 -1.68%

Nasdaq 100 - Risers

Incyte Corp. (INCY) $100.49 6.10%
Ctrip.Com International Ltd. Ads (CTRP) $46.29 4.97%
Micron Technology Inc. (MU) $43.05 4.70%
O'Reilly Automotive Inc. (ORLY) $251.18 4.42%
Netflix Inc. (NFLX) $200.22 4.30%
JD.com, Inc. (JD) $43.10 4.05%
Liberty Global Plc Lilac Class C (LILAK) $20.67 3.92%
Liberty Global Plc Lilac Class A (LILA) $20.90 3.72%
Twenty-First Century Fox Inc Class A (FOXA) $35.79 3.65%
Biogen Inc (BIIB) $329.75 3.51%

Nasdaq 100 - Fallers

Wynn Resorts Ltd. (WYNN) $164.90 -2.19%
Marriott International - Class A (MAR) $133.26 -1.82%
Sirius XM Holdings Inc (SIRI) $5.28 -1.40%
Automatic Data Processing Inc. (ADP) $116.10 -0.93%
Monster Beverage Corp (MNST) $62.94 -0.56%
Fastenal Co. (FAST) $54.45 -0.44%
Mondelez International Inc. (MDLZ) $42.68 -0.28%
Kraft Heinz Co. (KHC) $77.55 -0.27%
Intuit Inc. (INTU) $157.49 -0.18%


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Hargreaves Lansdown

Top of the stocks

Number of Deals Bought

Place EPIC Equity name %
1 UKOG UK Oil & Gas Investments plc 2.93
2 LGEN Legal & General Group plc 1.78
3 SOPH Sophos Group plc 1.57
4 SXX Sirius Minerals plc 1.51
5 IQE IQE plc 1.50
6 XBT Provider AB 1.48
7 GSK GlaxoSmithKline plc 1.36
8 XBT Provider AB 1.15
9 XBT Provider AB 1.12
10 LLOY Lloyds Banking Group plc 1.08

Number of Deals Sold

Place EPIC Equity name %
1 UKOG UK Oil & Gas Investments plc 2.75
2 LLOY Lloyds Banking Group plc 2.05
3 IQE IQE plc 1.35
4 GLEN Glencore plc 1.22
5 XBT Provider AB 1.19
6 PURP PurpleBricks Group plc 0.94
7 BP. BP Plc 0.92
8 IWG IWG plc 0.91
9 RDSB Royal Dutch Shell Plc B Shares 0.85
10 RIO Rio Tinto plc 0.83

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Broker Tips

Broker tips: Shire, Tullow Oil, Easyjet

Liberum has downgraded Shire to 'hold' from 'buy' and cut the price target to 4,100p from 4,200p, saying the risk/reward is more balanced.

The brokerage noted that since upgrading the stock mid-November on valuation grounds, the shares are up 14% in dollar terms despite better-than-expected competitor haemophilia data and a small pipeline failure on Tuesday, when the company announced that clinical trials for a drug to treat Hunter syndrome in children, SHP609, failed to meet their primary and secondary endpoints.

Liberum had pencilled in around $70m of risk adjusted peak sales for SHP609. Adjusting for the drug trial failure and FX moves - the impact of a stronger pound - Liberum cut its valuation to 4,100p a share, which now implies just 4.5% upside.

"We still believe that, if handled right, the update on the neuroscience strategic review due by year end could be a catalyst for the shares, but with fundamental upside now limited the risk/reward is more balanced."

Tullow Oil shares were boosted by an upgrade from Jefferies as analysts hiked their crude oil price forecasts for 2018, though Cairn Energy was downgraded due to its strong performance of late.

Brent crude will average $63 a barrel in 2018, Jefferies forecast in a pair of Wednesday notes on oil companies, up from its previous $57 expectations, with the WTI forecast upped to $59 per barrel from $54.

Analysts said they are "increasingly confident that the oil market will remain undersupplied through 2018" and that oil inventories will fall to five-year average levels in the third quarter of next year.

"The incremental tightness in the market is more a function of robust demand that, while broad-based, is underpinned by accelerating Chinese growth," they wrote, expecting the market to remain tight.

As a result of these crude price upgrades, forecasts for net asset values across its international exploration and production sector coverage increased on average 15%.

Tullow Oil's successful refinancing without further equity dilution "removes a risk we were concerned about" and the new oil price forecast now suggests $741m free cash flow next year and so lifts Jefferies' target 3% to 180p.

Tullow shares were therefore upgraded to 'hold' from 'underperform'.


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