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Apr 27, 2018

Evening Euro Markets Bulletin

 
ADVFN III Evening Euro Markets Bulletin
Daily world financial news Friday, 27 April 2018 17:48:59
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London close: Stocks jump with weak data seen potenially staying central banks' hand
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London stocks finished the session and the week higher as the pound fell below $1.38 for the first time since the start of March on the back of weak UK growth figures.

At the close, the top flight index was standing higher by 1.09% or 80.78 points to 7,502.21, with the pound down by 0.96% to 1.37842 - capping a bruising week that saw it give back over 2% against the US dollar.

It was a similar story against the single currency, with the pound seeing the week out from 1.1387, after falling by 0.93% on Friday.

Stoking selling in Sterling was weakness in the economy after ONS reported that Britain's gross domestic product grew just 0.1% in the first three months of the year, down sharply from the 0.4% seen in the fourth quarter and much worse the 0.3% expected by the market.

Yet perhaps just as important, underneat the surface so to speak, some equity strategists were highlighting prospects for policy easing in China and more doubtful central banks around the world, including the European Central Bank, all potential positives for the stockmarket.

This initial estimate from the ONS showed the UK economy growing at its slowest pace since the end of 2012 due to a significant fall in construction output, weaker manufacturing growth and continued subdued growth for consumer-facing services.

Snow and other bad weather from the 'Beast from the East' during the quarter had a relatively small overall impact across the UK. "While the snow had some impact on the economy, particularly in construction and some areas of retail, its overall effect was limited with the bad weather actually boosting energy supply and online sales," said Rob Kent-Smith, the ONS's head of national accounts.

Compared with the same quarter a year ago, the economy grew 1.2%, well below its five-year average of 2.2% and the slowest rate in almost six years.

Such a poor GDP reading cast further doubts on the health of the economy, said economist Chris Williamson at IHS Markit, and "seriously knocking the case" for what had been seen by many as a likely BoE interest rates hike in May.

Sreekala Kochugovindan and Fabrice Montagne at Barclays Research on the other hand told clients: "If the MPC believed in March that a hike in May is on the cards, it is in our view still on the cards today. We stick with our call for a hike in May."

Nevertheless, for the most part traders pared their bets for a hike at the May MPC, with the market-implied odds slipping towards 26% after Friday's data.

Meanwhile, UK consumer confidence as measured by GfK declined by two points in April to -9, with four of the five measures lower, despite wage growth having recently overtaken inflation.

Joe Staton, director of client strategy at GfK, said: "We now have 28 consecutive months without a positive overall index score. The last positive was in January 2016. Hope springs eternal for better numbers but the continued uncertain economic forecast means that the sun is not yet shining brightly for UK consumers."

Overseas, preliminary data showing better-than expected annualised growth of 2.3% in the States dominated the headlines.

In corporate news, Royal Bank of Scotland Group fell as it reported a threefold increase in first quarter net profits as the cost of restructuring and litigation fell, but there remains a looming threat of a sizeable penalty from US authorities.

Merlin Entertainments rallied as it said group trading at the current "seasonally quiet" point of the year was in line with expectations, and consistent with the guidance provided on 1 March, while Computacenter rose after hailing a better-than-expected first quarter, with revenue up 23%.

Defence company Ultra Electronics on the other hand ticked lower after reiterating that it expects to make "modest" progress in constant currency underlying revenue and operating profit this year, and that the cash performance will be more heavily weighted to the second half.

Shares of wealth manager Brewin Dolphin meanwhile dropped after announcing that finance director Andrew Westenberger will step down next month "by mutual agreement to pursue other interests".

Builders merchant Travis Perkins stock edged lower too, despite maintaining its full-year outlook and posting a jump in first-quarter sales.

On the broker note front, Barclays upgraded Ashmore to 'overweight' from 'equalweight' but cut Jupiter Fund Management to 'underweight' from 'equalweight'.

EasyJet was up as RBC Capital hiked its earnings estimates and target price, while Vesuvius was lifted to 'buy' from 'hold' at Investec.


Daily cryptocurrency Tracker 26.4.18: Crypto markets experience slowdown

The negative momentum in the crypto market continued over the past 24 hours, and this time Bitcoin caught up. 8 of the top 10 cryptos, including BTC registered losses. At the time...

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Market Status
 
 
change pct
+0.12%
 
cur price
7,430.68
 
change
+9.25
 
 
change pct
+0.24%
 
cur price
20,185.27
 
change
+47.65
 
 
change pct
+0.36%
 
cur price
3,420.08
 
change
+12.38

Top 10 FTSE 100 Risers

# NameChange PctChangeCur Price
1Merlin Entertainments Plc+3.35%+11.60358.30
2Scottish Mortgage Investment Trust+1.74%+8.00469.00
3Rentokil Initial+1.65%+4.90301.90
4Babcock International Group+1.50%+11.00744.80
5Mediclinic International plc+1.18%+7.80669.60
6Sage Group+1.13%+7.20642.20
7Paddy Power Betfair+1.07%+75.007,075.00
8Land Securities Group+0.97%+9.40981.50
9National Grid+0.91%+7.50833.80
10Burberry Group+0.90%+16.001,784.00

Top 10 FTSE 100 Fallers

# NameChange PctChangeCur Price
1Royal Bank Of Scotland-2.28%-6.20266.20
2Smurfit Kappa Group-2.03%-62.002,992.00
3Vodafone Group-1.44%-3.05208.75
4Next Plc-0.91%-48.005,216.00
5Barclays-0.86%-1.80208.20
6Kingfisher Plc-0.76%-2.30301.40
7Tesco-0.59%-1.40236.10
8British Petroleum-0.56%-3.00532.30
9Rolls-Royce Holdings-0.52%-4.40838.00
10Carnival-0.49%-23.004,654.00

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Crypto Currencies
#1 Bitcoin (BTC)
change
-0.34%
mktcap
157.46B
volume
61565.62T
price
9,260.96
#2 Ethereum (ETH)
change
-0.32%
mktcap
65.2B
volume
16910.79T
price
660.71
#3 Ripple (XRP)
change
-0.77%
mktcap
33.04B
volume
10107.17T
price
0.84
#4 Bitcoin Cash / BCC (BCH)
change
-2.24%
mktcap
23.84B
volume
5631.92T
price
1,393.05
#5 EOS (EOS)
change
-2.16%
mktcap
12.36B
volume
24232.62T
price
15.16

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US open: Wall Street struggles to hold onto weekly gains

Wall Street is struggling to stay in the black for the week despite a stronger than expected reading on the US economy for the first quarter, with steep losses in Exxon Mobil and US Steel apparently offsetting well-received updates from some of Wall Street's biggest tech names.

At 1544 BST, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was off by a slight 0.37% or 84.53 points and trading at 24,236.11, alongside a dip of 0.09% or 2.36 points to 2,664.64 on the S&P 500 while the Nasdaq Composite was slipping 0.13% or 9.95 points to 7,107.84.

Yet in the background, some analysts appeared to be turning somewhat more 'bullish', with strategists at BoA-Merrill for example telling clients: "Even better news = synchronized monetary blinking: China is easing (the 1st catalyst for US$ rally) & BoE/BoC/Riksbank all "blinking" as FX appreciation + no global inflation allows central banks to turn dovish."

To take note of as well, at 5.4 the investment bank's Bull&Bear Indicator had moved back into 'neutral' territory during the last week, potentially a positive development.

On the economic front, Commerce reported that the annualised rate of gorwth in US gross domestic product slowed from a 2.9% clip over the last three months of 2017 to 2.3% in the first quarter of 2018.

That was nonetheless better than the 2.1% pace economists had penciled-in, especially taking into account the typical seasonal and statistical quirks inherent to readings on first quarter activity each year.

Furthemore, in nominal terms Friday's data pushed the nominal year-on-year rate of growth in US GDP from 4.3% to 4.8% - its best reading since the start of 2015 - according to Berenberg Capital Markets.

"The improved momentum in current-dollar spending will result in upward pressure on inflation and wage-setting behavior. Sustained strong gains in business investment, which rose a solid 6% in Q1, would generate a pickup in productivity gains," said Berenberg's Mickey Levy and Roiana Reid following the data.

Significantly, at the end of the week the yield on the benchmark 10-year US Treasury note was down by three basis points at 2.95%.

Stock in Amazon was at the head of the tech parade at the end of the week after the company said late on Thursday that revenues surged 43% in the first quarter, while net profit rose to $1.6bn from $724m in the same period a year ago.

Its shares were trading 3.68% higher.

Microsoft was also in the black after better-than-expected quarterly results late on Thursday and strong guidance, while Intel was set to gain after a quarterly earnings beat and upbeat outlook.

Expedia shares were surging meanwhile following better quarterly sales than forecast late on Thursday and a smaller loss than expected.

On the downside, Exxon Mobil and United States Steel were pacing losses.

Weighing on the former were its mixed quarterly results despite higher commodity prices and cost reductions, while Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania-based US Steel was down after warning of the possibility of "operational volatility" in the year ahead.

Starbucks was also retreating following mixed second-quarter results while shares in Colgate-Palmolive were edging higher despite a quarterly revenue miss before the opening bell.

On the geopolitical front, Kim Jong-un pledged a "new history" in relations with his neighbours as became the first North Korean leader to visit South Korea since the end of the Korean War in 1953. The two leaders signed a declaration pledging to work towards a complete denuclearisation of the Korean peninsula and agreed to formally end the Korean War with a peace treaty.


Friday newspaper round-up: North/South Korea, Trump, Persimmon, Whitbread

The leaders of North and South Korea have vowed to “write a new chapter” in their peninsula’s troubled history at the start of a summit that has raised hopes for a resolution over Pyongyang’s nuclear and ballistic missile programmes. On a bright spring morning Kim Jong-un and his South Korean counterpart, Moon Jae-in, reached across a simple concrete slab marking the border between their countries and shook hands for more than 20 seconds. - Guardian

The rail franchising system is broken and passengers are paying the price, a cross-party committee of MPs has concluded. A scathing report by MPs on the public accounts committee said the government’s management of two major franchises was “completely inadequate”. The MPs accuse the Department for Transport of “failing to learn the lessons from previous failures” in allowing Stagecoach-Virgin to overbid for the East Coast franchise, which the government expects to terminate imminently, with the operator unable to meet payments. - Guardian

Amazon's shares hit an all-time high this evening in after-hours trading, as it surprised Wall Street by revealing profits more than doubled, instead of dipping as analysts had forecast. The online retailer's shares were up more than 6pc in extended trading, meaning it is poised to become the second largest US company by value, behind Apple, once US markets open. - Telegraph

President Donald Trump will meet the Queen and go to Chequers when he visits Britain in July but largely avoid London amid fears of mass protests. The US leader’s long-delayed trip will take place on July 13 but last just 24 hours, including talks with Theresa May and an overnight stay. Boris Johnson, the Foreign Secretary, said the news was “fantastic” but senior Labour figures warned that critics will not hold their tongues during the trip. - Telegraph

Shareholder anger at Persimmon continued yesterday after another institutional investor publicly criticised the company over its handling of a bonus scheme. Blackrock, which is one of the FTSE 100 company’s biggest shareholders, with a 5.4 stake, said it had voted against the remuneration report at its annual general meeting on Wednesday. - The Times

Two US activist investors in Whitbread are set to push for the owner of Premier Inn and Costa Coffee to break up faster than the two-year timeframe laid out by the company. Sachem Head and Elliott Advisors had been pushing for a spin-off of Costa before the £7.8 billion company announced plans for a demerger on Wednesday. However, the shareholders are poised to change their angle of attack by putting pressure on the board of the FTSE 100 leisure group to shorten its proposed timetable. - The Times

 

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