London stocks finished the session and the week higher as the pound fell below $1.38 for the first time since the start of March on the back of weak UK growth figures. At the close, the top flight index was standing higher by 1.09% or 80.78 points to 7,502.21, with the pound down by 0.96% to 1.37842 - capping a bruising week that saw it give back over 2% against the US dollar. It was a similar story against the single currency, with the pound seeing the week out from 1.1387, after falling by 0.93% on Friday. Stoking selling in Sterling was weakness in the economy after ONS reported that Britain's gross domestic product grew just 0.1% in the first three months of the year, down sharply from the 0.4% seen in the fourth quarter and much worse the 0.3% expected by the market. Yet perhaps just as important, underneat the surface so to speak, some equity strategists were highlighting prospects for policy easing in China and more doubtful central banks around the world, including the European Central Bank, all potential positives for the stockmarket. This initial estimate from the ONS showed the UK economy growing at its slowest pace since the end of 2012 due to a significant fall in construction output, weaker manufacturing growth and continued subdued growth for consumer-facing services. Snow and other bad weather from the 'Beast from the East' during the quarter had a relatively small overall impact across the UK. "While the snow had some impact on the economy, particularly in construction and some areas of retail, its overall effect was limited with the bad weather actually boosting energy supply and online sales," said Rob Kent-Smith, the ONS's head of national accounts. Compared with the same quarter a year ago, the economy grew 1.2%, well below its five-year average of 2.2% and the slowest rate in almost six years. Such a poor GDP reading cast further doubts on the health of the economy, said economist Chris Williamson at IHS Markit, and "seriously knocking the case" for what had been seen by many as a likely BoE interest rates hike in May. Sreekala Kochugovindan and Fabrice Montagne at Barclays Research on the other hand told clients: "If the MPC believed in March that a hike in May is on the cards, it is in our view still on the cards today. We stick with our call for a hike in May." Nevertheless, for the most part traders pared their bets for a hike at the May MPC, with the market-implied odds slipping towards 26% after Friday's data. Meanwhile, UK consumer confidence as measured by GfK declined by two points in April to -9, with four of the five measures lower, despite wage growth having recently overtaken inflation. Joe Staton, director of client strategy at GfK, said: "We now have 28 consecutive months without a positive overall index score. The last positive was in January 2016. Hope springs eternal for better numbers but the continued uncertain economic forecast means that the sun is not yet shining brightly for UK consumers." Overseas, preliminary data showing better-than expected annualised growth of 2.3% in the States dominated the headlines. In corporate news, Royal Bank of Scotland Group fell as it reported a threefold increase in first quarter net profits as the cost of restructuring and litigation fell, but there remains a looming threat of a sizeable penalty from US authorities. Merlin Entertainments rallied as it said group trading at the current "seasonally quiet" point of the year was in line with expectations, and consistent with the guidance provided on 1 March, while Computacenter rose after hailing a better-than-expected first quarter, with revenue up 23%. Defence company Ultra Electronics on the other hand ticked lower after reiterating that it expects to make "modest" progress in constant currency underlying revenue and operating profit this year, and that the cash performance will be more heavily weighted to the second half. Shares of wealth manager Brewin Dolphin meanwhile dropped after announcing that finance director Andrew Westenberger will step down next month "by mutual agreement to pursue other interests". Builders merchant Travis Perkins stock edged lower too, despite maintaining its full-year outlook and posting a jump in first-quarter sales. On the broker note front, Barclays upgraded Ashmore to 'overweight' from 'equalweight' but cut Jupiter Fund Management to 'underweight' from 'equalweight'. EasyJet was up as RBC Capital hiked its earnings estimates and target price, while Vesuvius was lifted to 'buy' from 'hold' at Investec. |
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