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Apr 11, 2018

Evening Euro Markets Bulletin

 
ADVFN III Evening Euro Markets Bulletin
Daily world financial news Wednesday, 11 April 2018 17:49:52
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London close: Stocks little changed as traders await news from Middle East
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London stocks slipped on Wednesday following an unexpected drop in UK manufacturing and a sharp fall in construction output, as the bright spot of Tesco's results was overshadowed by investor caution over geopolitical tensions and ahead of the release of the Federal Reserve meeting minutes.

"Threats of military action have driven gold and oil higher this afternoon, as Trump takes to Twitter to engage in his usual delicate diplomacy. The world is now on notice for US, and potentially allied, military strikes in Syria, as the US attempts to take action for chemical warfare attacks. With Russia having pledged itself to the defence of Syrian bases, it looks like we have the makings of a confrontation," said Chris Beauchamp at IG.

"Even if no Russian response is forthcoming to any possible US strike, it looks like relations between the two powers have hit a new low. Trade wars now seem quite petty compared to the prospect of conflict, but the limited reaction in equities might suggest the market is not prepared to 'sell the rumour and buy the fact' just yet."

Against that backdrop, the FTSE 100 closed down by 0.13% or 9.61 points to 7,257.14, while the pound was off 0.05% against the euro at 1.1469 but 0.14% firmer versus the dollar at 1.4195.

Feeding off of the heightened tensions in the Middle East, front month Brent crude oil futures were higher by 1.77% to $72.32 a barrel on the ICE, alongside a 1.17% advance for US gold futures.

Back in the UK, the big economic news was the data released mid-morning by the Office for National Statistics showing UK manufacturing output growing at the slowest rate since last summer.

UK industrial production rose 0.1% in February compared to January, well short of the 0.4% growth the market had expected and sharply lower than the 1.3% seen at the start of the year.

The reason for the slowdown was a 0.2% month-on-month fall in manufacturing production, undershooting forecasts for 0.2% growth and the 0.1% reported a month earlier. Compared to February last year, manufacturing production was up 2.5% when economists had pencilled in a 3.3% rise.

IP was only in positive territory boosted by growth in the energy supply sector due to the colder than normal weather. Compared to last year, February's IP fell short of expectations, up 2.2% versus the 2.9% predicted, but higher than the revised 1.2% in January.

Economist Samuel Tombs at Pantheon Macroeconomics said the poor manufacturing output was consistent with the message from the Markit and CBI surveys that growth has slowed this year.

"Total production likely will rise in March; we have pencilled in a 0.4% month-to-month gain," he said, noting average temperatures were even further below their seasonal norm in March than in February, with mining and quarrying output likely to have rebounded.

Meanwhile, UK construction output was down 1.6% on the month in February, which was better than the revised 3.1% drop the month before but much worse than the 0.9% increase expected.

On the year, construction output was down 3%, which was worse than the 2.5% drop predicted and the previous month's revised 2.1% fall.

The biggest decline was seen in repair and maintenance work, with private housing and infrastructure new work providing the only positive contributions to growth. Private hosing grew by £232m in February, while infrastructure work increased by £60m.

For later in the day, the big focus will be the release of the Fed's minutes from the 20-21 March meeting, as investors try to gauge how many rate hikes we will see this year.

In corporate news, Tesco was the standout gainer after it declared its first year-end dividend since 2014 as it reported a 28% rise in underlying operating profits thanks to improved margins and surging cash generation.

Webuyanycar.com owner BCA Marketplace surged as it said full year trading was ahead of expectations with "strong profit growth and with a net debt position lower than market forecasts".

Vedanta Resources gained as it posted a 3% jump in fourth-quarter average gross production.

On the downside, Hammerson fell after saying it had received and rejected a second bid from French shopping mall owner Klépierre. The revised offer, made on April 9, was 635p a share, made up of 50% in new Klépierre shares and the rest in cash.

Retirement housebuilder McCarthy & Stone dropped after reporting a 52% decline in half-year pre-tax profit, while recruiter PageGroup retreated despite delivering record quarterly gross profit, as the UK was a sore spot.

Budget airline EasyJet shares flew lower after saying on Tuesday that it had submitted a revised expression of interest for a restructured Alitalia as part of a consortium.

In broker note action, Man Group and Hargreaves Lansdown were upgraded to 'buy' and 'hold', respectively, by Jefferies.

Ophir Energy was lifted to 'overweight' at Barclays, while Premier Oil was upgraded to 'equal-weight'.

British Gas owner Centrica was hit by a downgrade to 'reduce' from 'hold' at HSBC.


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Market Status
 
 
change pct
-0.25%
 
cur price
7,248.67
 
change
-18.08
 
 
change pct
+0.07%
 
cur price
19,688.96
 
change
+13.48
 
 
change pct
-0.22%
 
cur price
3,357.11
 
change
-7.43

Top 10 FTSE 100 Risers

# NameChange PctChangeCur Price
1Tesco+5.52%+11.60221.90
2Babcock International Group+2.09%+14.40702.00
3Morrison+1.64%+3.70229.10
4Marks & Spencer+1.55%+4.10268.60
5Intertek Group+1.19%+56.004,776.00
6Hargreaves Lansdown+1.14%+19.001,689.00
7Paddy Power Betfair+0.99%+70.007,175.00
8Fresnillo plc+0.85%+10.501,251.00
9Sainsbury+0.80%+2.00250.60
10Whitbread Plc+0.78%+29.003,731.00

Top 10 FTSE 100 Fallers

# NameChange PctChangeCur Price
1Micro Focus International-2.80%-32.501,127.50
2Carnival-1.85%-85.004,515.00
3Coca Cola HBC AG-1.49%-39.002,587.00
4Centrica-1.47%-2.10140.45
5Associated British Foods-1.43%-37.002,559.00
6Unilever Plc-1.29%-51.003,894.50
7Hammerson Plc-1.22%-6.40518.60
8Diageo-1.18%-30.002,505.00
9Shire Plc-1.16%-42.503,610.50
10BAE Systems-1.16%-7.00595.40

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Crypto Currencies
#1 Bitcoin (BTC)
change
-0.11%
mktcap
116.21B
volume
36448.53T
price
6,838.50
#2 Ethereum (ETH)
change
+1.75%
mktcap
41.16B
volume
9107.07T
price
416.27
#3 Ripple (XRP)
change
-0.49%
mktcap
19.16B
volume
3379.68T
price
0.49
#4 Bitcoin Cash / BCC (BCH)
change
-0.23%
mktcap
11.12B
volume
3105.57T
price
651.86
#5 Litecoin (LTC)
change
-0.30%
mktcap
6.43B
volume
4279.57T
price
114.05

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US open: Sombre opening on the Street as geopolitical tensions weigh on investors

Wall Street trading kicked off on a sombre note on Wednesday amid caution ahead of the release of the latest Federal Reserve minutes and after a slightly worse-than-expected print on US inflation data for March, as geopolitical tensions weighed on sentiment.

At 1530 BST, the Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P 500 were down by 0.36% and 0.16%, respectively, while the Nasdaq had managed to scrape ahead 0.09%.

The mood was dominated by concerns about a possible US military strike in Syria, for which Trump and his administration were working hard to gain international support.

London Capital Group analyst Jasper Lawler said: "Syria has distinct risks. Military intervention in Syria that puts the US in direct confrontation with Russia can only be a bad thing for market sentiment."

Meanwhile, Rabobank strategist Jane Foley commented: "If a paring back of the risk of trade wars is good news for market sentiment, this week's warnings by Russia to the US of grave repercussions are the opposite."

This came as President Trump weighed in with one of his characteristically subtle tweets: "Russia vows to shoot down any and all missiles fired at Syria. Get ready Russia, because they will be coming, nice and new and 'smart!' You shouldn't be partners with a Gas Killing Animal who kills his people and enjoys it!"

In terms of data, US CPI fell 0.1 %, below the consensus forecast of 0%, while the core CPI rose 0.2%, as expected.

Core US CPI was boosted by mean-reversion in rents and a rebound in medical care, note economists at Pantheon Macroeconomics, partly offset by a "surprising" dip 0.6% dip in apparel prices and an "unsurprising" 0.3% decline in used car prices.

"Fed officials know that unfavourable base effects will lift core inflation further over the next four months, to about 2.5% by July," Pantheon says.

"What matters, then, is whether this increase comes as a surprise to the public and materially raises peoples' inflation expectations. If that happens, policymakers will fear an adverse feedback loop into wage negotiations, just as unemployment approaches a 50-year low.

"It will take time for any shift in inflation expectations to become clear, but in the meantime, we'd expect Fed hawks to point out to their colleagues that the core CPI rose at a 3.0% annualised rate in the first quarter, the fastest increase in 12 years. We expect the Fed to hike again in June, and in Sep and Dec too."

Fed minutes of the 20-21 March meeting are out at 1900 BST, of which IG analyst Joshua Mahony said: "This evening see the FOMC release their latest minutes, with markets attempting to better ascertain exactly how many rate rises we will see under Powell in 2018. With Janet Yellen speculating that we will likely see 3-4 2018 rate rises, markets will be watching keenly to see if the improved fiscal outlook will indeed push the Fed into tightening policy at such a pace."

On the corporate front, shares of Facebook were down 0.29% as chief executive Mark Zuckerberg prepared for a second day of testimony before US lawmakers and 21st Century Fox lost 0.06% after its UK offices were raided by officials from the European Commission investigating a potential abuse of its position in the broadcasting of major sports events.


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Wednesday broker round-up

Centrica: HSBC downgrades to reduce with a target price of 120p.

WPP: Berenberg reiterates hold with a target price of 1,275p.

Drax Group plc: RBC Capital Markets reiterates outperform with a target price of 370p.

WH Smith: RBC Capital Markets reiterates outperform with a target price of 2,300p.

Elementis: Numis reiterates add with a target price of 340p.

PureCircle: Numis reiterates buy with a target price of 500p.

Norcos: Numis reiterates buy with a target price of 300p.

Kenmare Resources plc: Canaccord reiterates buy with a target price of 475p.

Topps Tiles: Canaccord reiterates buy with a target price of 84p.

Asos: Canaccord reiterates sell with a target price of 3,622p.

Atalaya Mining plc: Canaccord reiterates buy with a target price of 290p.

McCarthy & Stone: Canaccord reiterates buy with a target price of 165p.

Adept Telecom: Northland Capital Markets reiterates buy with a target price of 400p.

 

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