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May 31, 2018

Morning Euro Markets Bulletin

 
ADVFN  Morning Euro Markets Bulletin
Daily world financial news Thursday, 31 May 2018 11:52:57
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London open: FTSE edges higher as Italy risks seen to recede
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London stocks crawled higher in early trade on Thursday as consumer confidence edged higher and Italian political risks were played down.

The FTSE 100 edged up 15 points or 0.19% to 7,704.54, while the pound climbed 0.35% against the dollar to 1.3332 and remained largely flat on the euro at 1.1386.

The euro firmed up against the dollar as concerns around Italy’s political situation eased a touch, or at least are put on hold until Lega and M5S can form a government, said market analyst Neil Wilson at Markets.com.

"European equities are firmer in early trade and yesterday’s rebound for stocks may well hold if we see the two populists form a government, though longer term any such government faces a clash with the EU/ECB. They may also face a considerable backlash from bond markets again - calm for the moment - if they push ahead with plans to increase debt-to-GDP. At around 1.33% the two-year BTP has retreated back to more normal levels but could be susceptible to further whipsaws.

"Reports this morning suggest Paolo Savona could become foreign minister in a Lega-M5S government, a move that could be palatable for all the sides. In the near term the avoidance of snap elections would be positive for risk, but longer-term concerns remain. It does look as though the main risk being priced in earlier this week when bonds and stocks sold off sharply was the threat of another election that could have been framed in a more anit-EU light. Again we must reiterate that stock and bond markets will remain volatile and highly sensitive to the political situation in Rome."

UK consumer confidence edged higher in May, consultancy GfK reported, with an increase of two points to -7 that bested the consensus forecast of -8.

Nevertheless, and as Joe Staton, client strategy director at GfK said: "With UK retail sales falling at their sharpest rate since the mid-90s, tough trading conditions for Britain's hard-pressed retail sector continue to take their toll. Shoppers are still not showing signs of a willingness to splash-the-cash. Will this self-imposed austerity remain the hallmark of pre-Brexit Britain in the run-up to March 2019 and beyond?"

Meanwhile, mortgage lender Nationwide's latest house price data revealed a slowdown in the rate of home price gains from a 2.6% clip for the year to April to 2.4% in May. That was well beneath the 3.0% rise that economists had penciled in.

Bank shares were mostly in the red as the Financial Conduct Authority fired a warning shot over the way overdrafts are charged, announcing measures intended to save consumers up to £140m a year and calling for fundamental reform of the sector. Following an 18-month review of high-cost consumer credit, the FCA is proposing introducing mobile alerts to warn of potential overdraft charges, stopping the inclusion of overdrafts in the term “available funds” and making it clearer that overdrafts are credit, among other measures.

Chemicals producer Johnson Matthey rose after it reported flat underlying profits and raised the dividend 7%.

Building materials group CRH climbed as it began a shake-up of its business, as it looks to merge European and US divisions and boost profits.

FirstGroup was skidding lower after boss Tim O'Toole stepped down with immediate effect after the transport operator swung deep into the red after writing down the value of various assets on its balance sheet, especially its Greyhound unit. The company also booked a £106.3m onerous contract provision for the Trans Pennine Express, as a result of management's excessively optimistic assumptions when it bid for the contract.

Greeting cards, dressings and gifts retailer Card Factory reported quarterly like-for-like sales down 0.4% against strong comparatives and a tough retail environment. The group said it was continuing its store roll out, with 10 net new stores opened, keeping it on track for its target of 50 openings for the full year.

Legal & General was little moved after announcing that Mark Zinkula, chief executive officer of its investment management arm, had advised the board of his intention to retire from the company in August next year.


Market Analysis 31/05/2018

TradeYour capital is at riskWall Street bounces backAfter registering significant losses on Tuesday, US markets recovered yesterday, as the Dow Jones and S&P 500 both closed...

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Market Status
 
 
change pct
+0.08%
 
cur price
7,695.47
 
change
+5.90
 
 
change pct
+0.32%
 
cur price
20,890.09
 
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+67.42
 
 
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+0.23%
 
cur price
3,545.18
 
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+8.20

Top 10 FTSE 100 Risers

# NameChange PctChangeCur Price
1 CRH Plc +3.81% +102.00 2,782.00
2 Mediclinic International plc +1.91% +12.00 639.80
3 Informa +1.85% +14.20 782.40
4 Mondi +1.50% +31.00 2,101.00
5 Burberry Group +1.43% +29.00 2,058.00
6 Babcock International Group +1.31% +10.80 834.80
7 British American Tobacco +1.30% +49.50 3,858.50
8 Tesco +1.23% +3.00 247.60
9 St. James's Place +1.15% +13.50 1,191.50
10 Glencore +1.06% +3.95 376.15

Top 10 FTSE 100 Fallers

# NameChange PctChangeCur Price
1 Taylor Wimpey -5.14% -10.35 190.85
2 National Grid -4.15% -36.30 838.20
3 Marks & Spencer -3.60% -10.70 286.80
4 Severn Trent -1.52% -30.50 1,970.50
5 United Utilities -1.43% -11.20 772.80
6 NMC Health -1.15% -42.00 3,622.00
7 Centrica -0.76% -1.10 143.60
8 Lloyds Banking Group -0.73% -0.47 63.73
9 Smurfit Kappa Group -0.71% -22.00 3,084.00
10 Vodafone Group -0.65% -1.26 193.62

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US close: Stocks end up as Italy worries recede, energy sector rallies

Stocks on Wall Street ended in the black on Wednesday, bouncing back from losses in the previous session as worries about fresh elections in Italy receded and as rising oil prices boosted the energy sector.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed up 1.3% at 24,667.78, the Nasdaq rose 0.9% to 7,462.01 and the S&P 500 climbed 1.3% to 2,724.01.

Despite the upbeat finish, IG market analyst Joshua Mahony said there is little to suggest that this is anything other than a temporary pause.

"The Italian political crisis is likely to worsen before it improves, with a lot more uncertainty for markets, and thus from a European standpoint there is little room for complacency.

"Much of today’s improved sentiment seems to be down to a shift in focus away from politics and towards economic data ahead of Friday’s US jobs report. While the relationship between the ADP and headline payrolls figures is unreliable at best, dollar bulls will hope that todays’ poor ADP figure bears no resemblance to Friday’s release. With the May ADP payrolls figure falling to an eight-month low of 178,000, expectations of a rise in Friday’s figure could be misplaced."

Investors also largely shrugged off the latest tensions between the US and China, after President Trump renewed his threat to impose $50bn worth of tariffs on Chinese imports "shortly" after mid-June, with a final list of the specific imports due to be published on 15 June. In addition, restrictions on Chinese investments will be announced on 30 June.

Analysts at Rabobank said: "This move is somewhat of a surprise since the US and China have been in talks about reaching a trade deal, which appeared to be progressing well. Perhaps President Trump caved to the mounting criticism on the contents of the agreement. Either way, the chances of no tariffs being raised at all seem slimmer at this point."

Energy-related shares racked up solid gains, with Exxon Mobil and Chevron both gushing higher as oil prices rallied on the back of a report suggesting that OPEC could extend supply cuts through the end of the year. West Texas Intermediate was up 2.4% to $68.38 a barrel and Brent crude was 3% firmer at $77.69.

In corporate news, shares of Michael Kors ended down 11% after it posted a disappointing outlook and DSW slumped 5.6% after its full-year profit guidance fell short, but Salesforce closed up 1.9% after its quarterly earnings beat expectations.

On the data front, private sector employment in the US grew less than expected in May, according to the latest figures from ADP.

Employers added 178,000 jobs this month, missing expectations for a 190,000 increase but up from a revised 163,000 gain in April. This was revised down from 204,000.

Ahu Yildirmaz, vice president and co-head of the ADP Research Institute, said: "The hot job market has cooled slightly as the labour market continues to tighten. Healthcare and professional services remain a model of consistency and continue to serve as the main drivers of growth in the services sector and the broader labour market as well."

Elsewhere, the US economy grew at a softer pace than originally reported throughout the first quarter of the year, according to the Commerce Department, principally because of a slower build-up in inventories.

Gross domestic product was trimmed to an annual 2.2% pace from 2.3%, just lower than analysts' projections of a flat reading.

In other news, core PCE, which strips out volatile food and energy prices and is the Fed's preferred inflation metric, increased 2.3%, down from the initial estimate of 2.5%.

Lastly, growth US April preliminary wholesale inventories came in unchanged at 0.0% versus a month-on-month gain of 0.5% projected by analysts, while the Goods Trade Balance deficit shrank to $68.19bn in April, which was below economists' forecasts.


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Thursday newspaper round-up: Banks, steel, trade, trains

US regulators have started rowing back on banking restrictions brought in following the financial crisis, in a move seen as a significant victory for the Trump administration. The Federal Reserve has proposed altering the so-called Volcker rule, which was designed to stop banks from engaging in proprietary trading while accepting taxpayer-insured deposits. - Telegraph

Royal Bank of Scotland directors have faced angry questioning from shareholders over planned branch closures and the bank’s treatment of small businesses - and the bank’s finance chief has warned that now may not the best time for the government to restart sales of the taxpayers’ 71% stake in the lender. Speaking on the sidelines of the bank’s annual shareholders’ meeting in Edinburgh, Ewen Stevenson - who also unexpectedly announced that he is quitting RBS - said recent stockmarket jitters meant that an immediate sale may not be the best timing. - Guardian

British steelmakers face steep tariffs on exports to the United States from tomorrow (Friday) after President Trump’s top trade official poured cold water on the prospect of reaching a deal with the European Union this week. Wilbur Ross, the commerce secretary, batted away European calls for a permanent exemption from duties of 25 per cent on steel and 10 per cent on aluminium. A temporary reprieve is due to expire at the end of the week. - The Times

The French President, Emmanuel Macron, has called on the world's largest trading powers to come together in order to reform international rules as trade tensions escalate. There must be “a complete update of global competition rules”, Mr Macron said in a speech in front of world leaders at the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) conference in Paris on Wednesday. - Telegraph

MPs and rail passenger groups are demanding “emergency measures” from the Department for Transport to end the travel chaos on Govia Thameslink services in and out of London over the last 10 days. Since the new timetable was introduced on 20 May, commuters trying to use the supposedly upgraded network have experienced mass last-minute cancellations, long delays and severely overcrowded services. - Guardian

Online estate agents Emoov and Tepilo are entering into a £100m merger, teaming up to create the second largest player in the digital market behind industry leader Purplebricks. The pair said they were also incorporating online letting agency Urban.co.uk and had entered into a deal with Channel 4's Commercial Growth Fund to launch a major TV advertising campaign. - Telegraph

Women aren’t a good fit in boardrooms, most of them don’t want the hassle of a big job and they don’t understand the complex issues discussed in board meetings. That is according to executives at the UK’s biggest firms, who have offered the excuses to explain why their boardrooms are dominated by men. The business minister Andrew Griffiths, responding to a report released by the his department on Wednesday, described the comments as “pitiful and patronising” as he sought to highlight how far FTSE 350 companies have to go on diversity at the top level. - Guardian

 

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