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May 3, 2018

Evening Euro Markets Bulletin

 
ADVFN III Evening Euro Markets Bulletin
Daily world financial news Thursday, 03 May 2018 19:03:59
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London close: Stocks and services sector fail to regain lost ground
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London stock finished Thursday where they started the week as some disappointing trading updates and a bumper crop of companies going ex-dividend took points off the main indices, while sterling could not hold onto its earlier gains from a rather weak recovery in the key services sector.

The FTSE 100 closed down 40.5 points or 0.54% at 7,502.69, roughly where it started the week, as the pound was roughly flat against the dollar after rising and falling earlier and steadily losing more territory against the euro to 1.1336.

Sterling had earlier popped a little higher on a data showing that UK services sector activity recovered, though not particularly impressively, last month after losing the previous month.

The services purchasing managers' index for April climbed to 52.8 from 51.7 a month earlier, according to the IHS Market survey, but this was short of estimates for around 53-53.5.

Following a weak manufacturing report and a limp recovery from construction earlier in the week, the all-sector PMI index rose to 53.2 but failed to recoup the fall to 51.9 in March from 54.2 in February. The composite index was the second-weakest since the Brexit vote and indicates the economy is growing at a quarterly rate of around 0.2% at the start of the second quarter.

In the services sector, the modest recovery output was still only to the second softest level seen for just over a year-and-a-half, with subdued new business growth persisting as consumers remain fairly cautious on finances.

"The surveys have indicated that sales, investment and hiring are being hit by uncertainty about the economic outlook as well as sluggish domestic demand, notably among consumers," said IHS Markit economist Chris Williamson.

"The disappointing services data will add to expectations that the MPC will take its finger firmly off the rate hike trigger. Any further slowing will also raise questions as to whether the November rate hike may have been ill-timed."

Meanwhile, investors continued to digest the latest statement from the US Federal Reserve, after it stood pat on rates as expected on Wednesday but pointed to the fact that inflation is beginning to edge higher.

The central bank made a number of tweaks to its accompanying statement. At the March meeting, it had said that indicators "have continued to run below 2%", but in the latest statement, the Fed said "overall inflation and inflation for items other than food and energy have moved close to 2%".

The Committee also said that inflation on a 12-month basis is expected to run near its "symmetric 2% objective over the medium term", with the use of the word "symmetric" grabbing investors' attention as it suggests the Fed is prepared to allow inflation to over- and under-shoot the 2% target, rather than consider it a concrete target.

Engine maker Rolls-Royce slipped as it said its expectations for 2018 were unchanged after reorganising spending to offset costs for extra inspections of its Trent 1000 engines.

Smith & Nephew slumped as it replaced its full year revenue guidance after a weak first quarter for hip replacements and wound-care, especially in the US and other emerging markets. Flat underlying sales in the first three months of the year led to the company trimming its full year expectations for revenue growth to 2-3%, only two months after giving guidance for growth of 3-4%.

Engineering company IMI fell despite saying current trading remains consistent with market consensus expectations for the year.

Car and home insurer Esure was on the front foot after it reported an 18% jump in first-quarter gross written premiums thanks to a solid performance form its motor division and said it remains on track to deliver profitable growth in 2018, although its home unit was hit by claims related to bad weather.

As the dollar was sent lower by the Fed report, this helped metals prices and saw London's heavyweight miners lifted, including Antofagasta and Glencore. Gold was also boosted, in turn dragging Randgold Resources and Fresnillo higher.

Glencore also helped itself with news that production in its first quarter was largely in line with expectations across all commodity groups and confirming that its full-year guidance remained unchanged from what it presented in February.

Leading the risers on the FTSE 250, Entertainment One gained on the back of a deal struck with British TV production company Fired Up Films to assist in the production of scripted and non-scripted shows, focusing on blue-chip documentaries factual entertainment formats, feature docs and drama projects.

Lancashire Holdings rallied as it posted a 47.7% rise in first-quarter pre-tax profit as gross written premiums and its return on equity rose and Centamin edged up as the gold miner said first-quarter profit nearly doubled.

On the broker note front, Go-Ahead was hit by a cut to 'hold' at Deutsche Bank, while BT was downgraded to 'equalweight' at Barclays. Direct Line was reduced to 'neutral' at JPMorgan and AO World was cut to 'hold' by Peel Hunt.

Elsewhere, AA, G4S, GoCompare, Card Factory, Derwent London, Elementis, Hastings Group, Just Group, Kingfisher, LSE, McCarthy & Stone, Mondi, Morgan Advanced Materials, Senior, Unilever, JD Wetherspoon and Rightmove were among the companies whose stock went ex-dividend.


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Top 10 FTSE 100 Risers

# NameChange PctChangeCur Price
1Glencore+1.29%+4.60362.50
2TUI AG+0.97%+16.501,715.00
3Lloyds Banking Group+0.93%+0.6064.93
4Taylor Wimpey+0.87%+1.65192.35
5Antofagasta Plc+0.84%+8.20988.40
6Paddy Power Betfair+0.81%+55.006,855.00
7Sage Group+0.75%+4.80642.20
8Morrison+0.75%+1.80241.50
9Randgold Resources+0.74%+44.006,012.00
10Std Life Aber+0.74%+2.70369.80

Top 10 FTSE 100 Fallers

# NameChange PctChangeCur Price
1Smith & Nephew-7.25%-101.501,299.00
2Mondi-5.65%-115.001,921.00
3G4S-2.98%-7.90257.50
4Kingfisher Plc-2.75%-8.00282.60
5NMC Health-2.71%-98.003,524.00
6BT Group-2.44%-5.90236.35
7Direct Line-1.48%-5.40360.40
8Sainsbury-1.18%-3.60301.40
9International Consolidated Airlines Group -1.17%-7.60640.80
10Severn Trent-1.02%-20.501,987.50

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Europe close: Investors book profits after indices hit key resistance levels
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Stocks on the Continent finished near their session lows as investors digested a much weaker-than-expected reading on euro area inflation, amid falling expectations for central bank tightening around the world, possibly even in the US.

There were also some jitters in the market ahead of the first face-to-face talks between top US and Chinese trade and finance officials.

Against that backdrop, by the closing bell the benchmark Stoxx 600 was off by 0.73% or 2.82 points at 384.62, alongside a decline of 0.88% or 112.10 points to 12,690.15 for the German Dax and a fall of 0.83% or 201.15 points to 24,064.46 on the FTSE Mibtel.

Government bond yields were lower across the Continent too, with that on the benchmark 10-year bund off by five basis points at 0.53%.

To take note of as well, earlier in the session the Dax had reached the 50% Fibonacci retracement of its fall from its late January highs, which marked a potential level of technical resistance, while the Cac-40 was on the cusp of setting fresh 2018 highs.

"European equity markets are lower today as weakened global sentiment encouraged profit-taking. Some major European indices hit their highest levels since February yesterday, and investors are now locking in some profits," said David Madden at CMC Markets UK.

"Traders took their cues from Asia overnight and decided to exit the equity markets, partially driven by higher yields on government bonds."

On Thursday morning, Eurostat reported that in year-on-year terms the core Eurozone CPI was down by three tenths of a percentage point in April at 0.7% (consensus: 0.9%).

For Florian Hense at Berenberg, that decline was mainly to do with so-called 'base' effects linked to Easter falling later in the year in 2018.

However, Hense conceded there were some potential downside risks to his inflation forecasts - on account of the ongoing trade tensions.

"If the trade tensions escalate much further for much longer, the economy suffers worst than just a temporary slowdown and core inflation fails to edge up over the course of the year, the ECB may delay the end of its asset purchases and the first rate hike by 3-6 months," he said.

Trade tensions were also on the mind of Rabobank's Jan Lambregts, who earlier had told clients: "It's tempting to blame it all on President Trump and his populist wont. But the world is a bit more complicated than that.

"In the US, bipartisan support for confronting China is running high, as the country is generally perceived to not play fairly when it comes to its home market. While Xi Jingping is trying to find a way out of this newly raised fog, the US apparently has had their veil lifted."

Also on Thursday, Norway's central bank decided to keep its main policy rate at 0.50%, as expected. However, according to UniCredit its policy statement left the door open to downwards revisions to both its growth and inflation forecasts further down the road.

Closer to home meanwhile, analysts at Morgan Stanley reportedly rowed back on a previous call for an interest rate hike from the Bank of England at its meeting next week, as did their peers at Barclays.

Acting as a backdrop, and while in theory welcome, some investors expressed surprise at the US central bank's choice of words overnight, with rate-setters having opted to omit a reference to a strengthening economic outlook from their policy statement.

In the corporate patch meanwhile, German chemicals giant Bayer lowered its full-year forecast for sales, guiding towards a drop in the mid-single digits, versus a prior prediction for little variation.

Core earnings per share on the other hand were still expected to be flat, the company said, helping to support the shares.

Shares of French aerospace, defence and security outfit Thales were also trading higher after the company posted a 7.2% rise in organic sales for 2017, albeit alongside a 9% drop in its order intake to €14.9bn.

Also in France, utility and waste management services outfit Veolia Environment reported an 8% increase in net income to €193m for the three months to 31 March, excluding capital gains.


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US open: Stocks open lower as investors mull over latest Fed policy statement

Trading on Wall Street began with losses across the board on Thursday, following on from those seen in the previous session, as investors continued to mull over the Federal Reserve's latest policy statement.

At 1520 BST, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was down 0.95%, while the Nasdaq and S&P 500 were falling by 0.67% and 0.82%, respectively.

On Wednesday, the Fed stood pat on rates as expected but pointed to the fact that inflation is beginning to edge higher. In addition, the central bank made a number of tweaks to its accompanying statement. At the March meeting, it had said that inflation indicators "have continued to run below 2%", but in the latest statement, the Fed said, "overall inflation and inflation for items other than food and energy have moved close to 2%".

The Committee also said that inflation on a 12-month basis is expected to run near its "symmetric 2% objective over the medium term", with the use of the word "symmetric" grabbing investors' attention.

Rabobank said: "The statement incorporated only minor changes, yet the emphasis on the symmetric inflation goal signals that the FOMC won't be too worried about a slight but temporary overshoot. This suggests that the FOMC might see the need for some wiggle room later this year."

Meanwhile, Daiwa Capital Markets said it does not view this as a signal that officials are rethinking the policy path indicated by the March forecasts of three or four tightening moves this year.

"We viewed the addition of 'symmetric' as a signal that 2% is a target and not a ceiling; this level can be breached if policymakers are confident that inflation is not accelerating and likely to deviate meaningfully for an extended period. But with the economy at full employment, and with inflation starting to move upward, and with monetary policy still viewed as accommodative, we see the Fed as proceeding with normalisation."

In corporate news, electric car maker Tesla was down 6.15% even after its latest quarterly earnings, released late on Wednesday, beat expectations.

Chief executive Elon Musk kicked up a storm in a conference call with analysts to discuss the results, after saying investors should sell his stock, not buy it and expressed annoyance with some of the analysts.

He responded to questions from an RBC Capital Markets analyst by saying: "These questions are so dry. They're killing me."

Musk also said during the call: "Really, the problem is like people get too focused on like what's happening in the space of a few weeks or a few months...You should be focused on long-term things.

"We have no interest in satisfying the desires of day traders, like, we couldn't care less. Please sell our stock and don't buy it."

Elsewhere, Kraft Heinz shares were up 3.27% after its earnings late on Wednesday came in ahead of expectations, while security software maker FireEye lost 5.26% despite having lifted its full-year guidance.

Spotify on the other hand was down 9.47% after its earnings debut missed a beat and Fitbit shares were off by 7.38% after reporting weak tracker sales that hurt its second-quarter revenue.

DowDuPont was up 0.57% after sales rose 5% on an increased demand and Cigna was down 1.40% after the group saw profits jump amid scepticism about its Express Scripts deal.

Kellogg was up 3.54% as consumers continued to embrace healthy eating and Blue Apron collected 3.09% after adding a slew of new customers throughout the quarter.

Herbalife Nutrition, Activision, Xerox, GoPro and Blizzard will release their quarterly earnings after the close.

On the data front, the US trade gap narrowed 15.2% in March to a seasonally adjusted $48.96bn, the Commerce Department said Thursday.

The decline was the largest one-month drop for the trade deficit since 2016 years, taking it to its lowest level since September.

Economists had expected a much larger March deficit of $56.0bn

Elsewhere, new applications for US jobless benefits increased less than expected last week, increasing by 2,000 to a seasonally adjusted 211,000 for the week ended April 28, the Labor Department said on Thursday. Claims had dropped to 209,000 the week before, marking the lowest level since December 1969.

In parallel, the four-week moving average of initial claims fell by 7,750 to 221,500.

In other data, America's final Markit services PMI reading for April came in at 54.6, versus an expected readout of 54.5, and the ISM non-manufacturing PMI fell to a four-month low in April to a reading of 56.8%, down from 58.8% in March.


Thursday broker round-up

Go-ahead: Deutsche Bank downgrades to hold with a target price of 1,840p.

BP: Deutsche Bank reiterates buy with a target price of 580p.

Tui AG: Deutsche Bank reiterates buy with a target price of 1,800p.

Convatec: Deutsche Bank reiterates sell.

Reckitt Benckiser: JP Morgan reiterates overweight with a target price of 7,000p.

Direct Line Insurance Group: JP Morgan downgrades to neutral with a target price of 430p.

Howden Joinery Group: JP Morgan reiterates neutral with a target price of 500p.

Just Eat: JP Morgan reiterates underweight with a target price of 775p.

Pendragon: JP Morgan reiterates underweight with a target price of 19p.

Inmarsat: JP Morgan reiterates neutral with a target price of 500p.

Telecom plus: JP Morgan reiterates neutral with a target price of 1,250p.

Polar Capital Holdings: Numis upgrades to buy with a target price of 635p.

Pan African Resources: Numis reiterates buy with a target price of 16p.

AO World: Peel Hunt downgrades to hold with a target price of 145p.

Paddy Power Betfair: Citigroup downgrades to neutral with a target price of 280p.

Kainos: Canaccord reiterates buy with a target price of 435p.

Sage Group: Canaccord reiterates sell with a target price of 540p.

Compass Group: Berenberg reiterates buy with a target price of 1,800p.

Abcam: Berenberg reiterates hold with a target price of 1,230p.

 

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