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Nov 30, 2017

Evening Euro Markets Bulletin

 
ADVFN III Evening Euro Markets Bulletin
Daily world financial news Thursday, 30 November 2017 19:15:30
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London Market Report
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London close: Sterling advance saps Footsie strength

Stocks closed lower on Thursday, surrendering to pound strength amid optimism over recent progress in Brexit talks and following a report that Britain is close to agreeing a deal over the Northern Ireland border.

The FTSE 100 was down 0.90% to 7,326.67, while the pound was up 0.2% against the euro at 1.1341 and 0.7% firmer against the dollar at 1.3502.

European markets also closed lower with the DAX down 0.29% to 13,023.98, the CAC40 0.47% weaker at 5,372.79 and the IBEX35 slipping 0.55% to 10,211.00.

Prime Minister Theresa May - who has until Monday to make a fresh offer on key divorce issues if the UK is to move ahead to the next step in Brexit talks - insisted the UK is still negotiating with the EU over a divorce payout following reports of a £50bn settlement.

Oanda analyst Craig Erlam said: "The pound hit a two-month high against the dollar on Wednesday and has now reached a similar high against the euro. The pair may find support around 0.8750 having done so on the last two occasions in September and earlier this month. A break below here could be quite a bearish signal for the pair, with next support coming around 0.8650."

Meanwhile, oil prices ticked lower, as Thursday's OPEC meeting came to a close in Vienna, amid reports that ministers have agreed the current deal should be extended until the end of next year. West Texas Intermediate was 0.02% weaker at $57.28 a barrel and Brent crude was down 1.93% to $61.89.

Investors were also digesting the latest survey from Nationwide, which showed annual UK house price growth was stable in November.

House prices grew by 2.5% this month, unchanged from November last year and missing expectations for a 2.7% increase. On the month, prices were 0.1% higher, down from a 0.2% rise in October and below expectations for it to remain unchanged.

Meanwhile, the latest survey from GfK showed UK consumer confidence waned more than expected this month.

GfK's consumer confidence index slipped to -12, the same level as the month after the Brexit vote, down from -10 the month before and slightly worse than the City forecasts of -11.

In corporate news, BAE Systems was in the black after agreeing to pay more into its pension schemes to deal with a £2.1bn deficit by the year 2026.The defence company said it would increase payments into the schemes from about £205m a year to £220m from 2018 with payments rising in line with group dividends.

Life insurer Aviva rallied as it upped its long-term earnings and dividend guidance and said it has £3bn of excess cash that will be used to pay down £0.9bn debt next year, as well as making bolt-on acquisitions and funding shareholder returns over 2018 and 2019.

Mediclinic was trading higher after a double upgrade to 'buy' from Jefferies, which said it expects mid-term return on invested capital to improve more than the market is forecasting.

Pub operator Marston's surged after it posted a 10% jump in full-year revenue and a 3% rise in pre-tax profit.

Go-Ahead fell despite saying the rail operator maintained its full-year expectations as it said revenues from its train services have risen in recent months.

On the downside, GlaxoSmithKline fell as it announced that ViiV Healthcare, the global specialist HIV company it majority owns with Pfizer and Shionogi as shareholders, has confirmed the start of HPTN 084 - a phase III study to evaluate long-acting cabotegravir for the prevention of HIV infection in sexually active women.

TP ICAP rose after saying it has acquired independent agency broker Coex Partners for an initial payment of £7.1m, with performance-related payments possible at various dates over the next four years.

Pub operator Greene King fell sharply after reporting an 8% drop in interim underlying pre-tax profit, while residential landlord Grainger declined even as it posted a 2% increase in full-year pre-tax profit.

Oil services group Lamprell gushed lower after warning that earnings for 2017 are likely to be "materially below" current market expectations as its East Anglia offshore windfarm project is expected to make a "significant" loss.

Bellway, Telecom Plus, Johnson Matthey, IAG and Land Securities were all weaker as their stock went ex-dividend.


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Market Movers

FTSE 100 (UKX) 7,326.67 -0.90%
FTSE 250 (MCX) 19,952.89 -0.53%
techMARK (TASX) 3,434.39 -0.82%

FTSE 100 - Risers

Mediclinic International (MDC) 565.50p 4.72%
BT Group (BT.A) 260.80p 2.11%
Convatec Group (CTEC) 194.00p 1.52%
BAE Systems (BA.) 552.00p 1.47%
TUI AG Reg Shs (DI) (TUI) 1,364.00p 1.34%
United Utilities Group (UU.) 820.50p 1.30%
Centrica (CNA) 144.60p 1.26%
Worldpay Group (WPG) 422.00p 0.96%
ITV (ITV) 159.90p 0.95%
Standard Life Aberdeen (SLA) 430.20p 0.94%

FTSE 100 - Fallers

AstraZeneca (AZN) 4,777.00p -2.51%
British American Tobacco (BATS) 4,689.00p -2.35%
Prudential (PRU) 1,859.50p -2.16%
GlaxoSmithKline (GSK) 1,280.00p -2.14%
Associated British Foods (ABF) 2,948.00p -2.12%
Randgold Resources Ltd. (RRS) 6,775.00p -2.02%
Tesco (TSCO) 194.05p -1.99%
CRH (CRH) 2,566.00p -1.99%
Persimmon (PSN) 2,540.00p -1.97%
Carnival (CCL) 4,766.00p -1.91%

FTSE 250 - Risers

Marston's (MARS) 115.00p 9.73%
TalkTalk Telecom Group (TALK) 153.10p 5.37%
RPC Group (RPC) 924.00p 3.30%
Nex Group (NXG) 593.50p 2.95%
Vectura Group (VEC) 96.75p 2.93%
Brewin Dolphin Holdings (BRW) 361.20p 2.76%
P2P Global Investments (P2P) 808.00p 2.60%
TBC Bank Group (TBCG) 1,578.00p 2.53%
Mitchells & Butlers (MAB) 267.10p 2.49%
Pets at Home Group (PETS) 175.10p 2.47%

FTSE 250 - Fallers

Sophos Group (SOPH) 568.50p -5.80%
Capita (CPI) 466.50p -5.72%
Evraz (EVR) 286.30p -4.53%
Vedanta Resources (VED) 692.50p -4.15%
Equiniti Group (EQN) 293.80p -3.86%
Hochschild Mining (HOC) 228.35p -3.86%
Petrofac Ltd. (PFC) 420.60p -3.71%
Greene King (GNK) 520.00p -3.70%
Restaurant Group (RTN) 286.70p -3.69%


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Europe Market Report
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Europe close: Euro area stocks end month on a down note

Another run higher in euro area stocks petered out as the day wore on, despite another strong showing for shares on Wall Street and despite reports that Germany's Social Democrats are preparing for an alliance with German chancellor Angela Merkel's CDU/CSU.

According to Bloomberg, SPD leaders were preparing a party convention for 7-9 December in order to allow members a vote on such a move.

The ebbing in the buying pressure followed another push higher, the day before, which evaporated on the back of heavy selling in the technology space.

At the closing bell, the benchmark Stoxx 600 was down by 0.33% or 1.27 points to 386.69, alongside a drop of 0.29% or 37.89 points to 13,023.98 for the German Dax and a rise of 0.19% or 42.35 points to 22,368.29 in the FTSE Mibtel.

Euro/dollar on the other hand had reversed course to trade 0.33% higher to 1.1890 on the back of the latest news out of Germany.

Commenting on the situation in European stockmarkets at the end of the month, Michael Hewson, chief market analyst at CMC Markets UK, said: "In contrast European markets have underperformed even though the DAX made a new record high earlier this month it looks as if we could well finish the month lower across the board, with the FTSE100 also below its October close.

"This underperformance of European markets may well be down to the slide in the US dollar this month which has seen both the euro and the pound regain ground."

Meanwhile, on the economic front, consumer prices in the Eurozone rose by less than expected in November.

According to a preliminary estimate from Eurostat, headline CPI advanced at a 1.5% year-on-year clip in November, up from 1.4% in the month before (consensus: 1.6%).

At the 'core' level, the rate of gains in CPI was unchanged from the month before at 0.9% on the year.

Yet joblessness in the single currency bloc continued to decline in October, with the rate of unemployment slippined from 8.9% in the month before to 8.8% (consensus: 8.9%).

The same was true for Germany in November, where unemployment fell by 18,000 after a downwardly revised decrease of 12,000 in the month before (consensus: -10,000).

On the corporate side of things, shares of Credit Suisse were 3% higher after telling investors it was aiming to distribute half its net profits in 2019 and 2020 as share buybacks and special dividends.

Elsewhere, Unicredit may be near to selling its remaining 49% stake in the FINO 1 financial vehicle to which it transferred €15.5bn in bad debt, Il Messaggero reported.


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Top Cryptocurrencies

# Name Market Cap($) Price(%) Change Price Graph(3m)
1 Bitcoin (BTC) 157,453,184,205  9,535.18  -3.51%
2 Ethereum (ETH) 39,583,710,814 420.49 -10.02%
3 Bitcoin Cash / BCC (BCH) 21,159,441,475 1,282.23 -16.13%
4 Ripple (XRP) 9,653,863,705 0.242403 -17.27%
5 DigitalCash (DASH) 5,674,138,421 729.01 +18.6%

 

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US Market Report

US open: Stocks continue to barrel higher on tax cut hopes

Wall Street continued to push higher at a furious pace amid greater optimism over the likelihood of US tax reforms and the potential impact they might have on stocks.

At 1721 GMT, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was 1.28% or 304.19 points higher to 24,245.85, alongside a gain of 0.99% or 26.09 points for the S&P 500 to 2,652.64, while the Nasdaq Composite was ahead by 0.84% to 6,880.95.

Investors were awaiting a final vote on the Republicans' tax bill, which could take place on Thursday evening.

Commenting on the tax reform proposals making their way through the US Senate, economists at Oxford Economics said: "The Senate is on track to pass its version of tax reform later today or Friday. The next step would be to reconcile differences with the House version passed earlier this month. Tax reform has gained momentum and we think the odds that legislation will pass before year end have increased to 60-70%.

"One possible wrinkle: at least one key Republican vote may hinge on passage of legislation to shore up the Affordable Care Act."

In parallel, front month Brent crude oil futures were 0.54% higher to $63.43 a barrel as OPEC members agreed on maintaining their current reduced output until the end of 2018.

Oanda analyst Craig Erlam said: "Wednesday's tech selloff is doing little to weigh on risk appetite ahead of the open on Thursday, with futures on all three major indices around a third of a percentage point higher, tracking broad gains in Europe.

"With US indices trading around record highs it seems investors are currently willing to shrug off Wednesday's declines some of the biggest tech names, putting it down to profit taking rather than a sign of any underlying concerns given the already extended levels. With plenty of economic data to come today including income, spending and inflation - the Fed's preferred measure - as well as appearances from Federal Reserve officials, this positive risk appetite may well be put to the test at times."

In corporate news, Juniper Networks was sharply lower after Finnish network equipment maker Nokia said it was not in talks about buying its California-based rival.

Elsewhere, Sears shares were in focus after the department store chain reported a narrowing of fiscal third-quarter losses.


Hargreaves Lansdown

Top of the stocks

Number of Deals Bought

Place EPIC Equity name %
1 CNA Centrica plc 4.98
2 CLLN Carillion plc 2.62
3 GSK GlaxoSmithKline plc 1.69
4 SMT Scottish Mortgage Investment Trust 1.63
5 LLOY Lloyds Banking Group plc 1.40
6 BAB Babcock International Group 1.36
7 VRS Versarien plc 1.20
8 BOO Boohoo.com 1.08
9 NG. National Grid 1.03
10 XBT Provider AB 1.02

Number of Deals Sold

Place EPIC Equity name %
1 LLOY Lloyds Banking Group plc 1.58
2 CLLN Carillion plc 1.53
3 EZJ easyJet plc 1.24
4 PFC Petrofac 1.12
5 RMG Royal Mail PLC 1.09
6 VRS Versarien plc 1.06
7 CNA Centrica plc 1.04
8 TSCO Tesco plc 1.03
9 GGP Greatland Gold Plc 0.97
10 BOO Boohoo.com 0.95

Broker Tips

Broker tips: SIG, Barclays, Cineworld

Jefferies upgraded insulation and roofing supplier SIG to 'buy' from 'hold' and lifted the price target to 200p from 150p saying the recent strategy day mapped out a credible turnaround plan.

"The road will not be straight, but we expect management to fully deliver on their 5% margin targets in the medium term. Much of the turnaround lies within the group's control and is not predicated on rapid recovery in the group's end markets" it said.

Jefferies pointed out that SIG's strategy is to achieve 5% return on sales and 15% return on capital employed margins in the medium term, while reducing leverage to less than 1x. It said that in essence, the strategy involves doing more with what the group already has.

Management has identified three strategic levers, customer service, customer value and operational efficiency, supported by enhanced data and IT services.


Threadneedle Street's stress tests are "somewhat negative" for the UK listed domestic banks, said Exane BNP Paribas on Tuesday, warning that it "raises questions over the speed to dividend normalisation".

Exane noted that the £50bn of losses revealed in the Bank of England's stress tests were much larger than seen in the 2016 stress test and "are likely to raise concerns over the extent to which PRA buffers are required".

The Bank said no banks needed to make changes as a result of the test, the first time it has been able to do this since the tests started in 2014, but its Financial Policy Committee will now review whether an additional capital cushion is needed. Such an extra buffer would be determined by the Prudential Regulation Authority.

Exane added that by the time fully loaded requirements become binding at the start of 2019 these numbers might have changed markedly, with misconduct costs expected to fall markedly over the next year or two, "but the size of these losses will still raise question marks over these banks".

Exane said its initial view is that Barclays "looks most vulnerable of the UK domestic banks to a PRA buffer" at the start of 2019, particularly given it also lost 450bps in last year's test and the PRA does not focus on just one year's numbers.

 

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