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Nov 16, 2017

Evening Euro Markets Bulletin

 
ADVFN III Evening Euro Markets Bulletin
Daily world financial news Thursday, 16 November 2017 18:33:41
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London Market Report
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London close: Stocks eke out only slight gains

London stocks managed to eke out only slight gains on Thursday, putting the brakes on a two week sell-off but unable to make any real headway as the pound ticked up on the back of the latest UK retail sales figures.

The FTSE 100 added 0.19% or 14.33 points to end at 7,386.94, while the pound was up 0.2% against the dollar to 1.31967 and 0.4% firmer versus the euro at 1.1210.

Data from the Office for National Statistics showed UK retail sales bounced back more than expected last month, although it also revealed the first annual decline in four and a half years, with the prognosis for the sector remaining grim amid the ongoing squeeze of household budgets.

UK retail sales volumes in October rose 0.3% month-on-month after a sharp fall the previous month that was revised up to 0.7% from 0.8%. The consensus forecast had been for a 0.1% rise at most.

Year on year, October's sales volumes were down 0.3%, against what was a strong month last year. This may have been less bad than the 0.4% drop the market expected but was down from the 1.3% rise this September and the lowest rate of growth since March 2013.

Oanda analyst Craig Erlam said: "UK retail sales data gave the pound a small boost this morning, despite the numbers themselves being far from desirable.

"While the slowdown in consumer spending comes as no surprise given the negative wage growth that has held the economy back since the start of the year, a worrying trend has formed that will likely weigh on economic output in the coming quarters. The pound may well have been given a small lift by today's numbers but the reality is that the near-term impacts of the Brexit vote are being felt and there's little to suggest the worst has passed."

The rise in the pound was holding back the FTSE compared to its peers, Erlam said, with European bourses finishing up by an average of 0.6%, while general weakness across the commodity space was another weight on the UK index.

In corporate news, EasyJet was flying highest after Dart Group, the owner of Jet2, posted a rise in first-half revenue and pre-tax profit.
Private equity firm 3i Group was up after it reported "continued progression" in its net asset value per share for the first half, rising to 652p from 604p at the start of the period and on track for year of strong growth.

British Land advanced as its net asset value increased 2.6% in the first half to 939p, which stands at a sizeable premium to its shares.
Merchant bank Close Brothers rallied as it reported a 1.4% rise in its loan book for the first quarter, saying it has made "a good start" to the year with continued strong profitability across all three divisions.

Centrica was boosted by an upgrade to 'buy' from 'reduce' at Kepler, while Aveva was higher after JPMorgan Cazenove lifted the stock to 'overweight' from 'neutral' and FirstGroup rose as RBC Capital upgraded it to 'sector perform' from 'underperform'.

On the downside, GKN suffered the heaviest losses after saying it has parted company with Kevin Cummings, who was due to step up to be chief executive at the aircraft and vehicle parts maker.

Royal Mail gave up early gains even as underlying profits improved in the first half of the year, though the costs of transforming the business saw reported operating profits plummet more than 80%.

Prudential was weaker despite saying that life insurance new business profit rose 17% in the first nine months of the year, reflecting higher sales and more favourable economic conditions.

Virgin Money was in the red despite saying it remains on track to meet financial targets for FY 2017 and announcing the launch of a new SME savings account in January 2018.

Qinetiq fell despite first-half revenues coming in more or less as expected.

TalkTalk was hit by a downgrade to 'sector perform' from 'outperform' at RBC Capital Markets, while funeral services providers Dignity slumped after a downgrade by Berenberg.

Spire Healthcare lost ground as Mediclinic said discussions with the group have continued, but no agreement has yet been reached on any of the key terms of an offer.


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Market Movers

FTSE 100 (UKX) 7,386.94 0.19%
FTSE 250 (MCX) 19,850.00 0.80%
techMARK (TASX) 3,458.04 0.98%

FTSE 100 - Risers

Shire Plc (SHP) 3,744.00p 6.05%
Convatec Group (CTEC) 198.50p 4.58%
Paddy Power Betfair (PPB) 8,800.00p 4.58%
British Land Company (BLND) 618.50p 3.69%
easyJet (EZJ) 1,295.00p 3.52%
Micro Focus International (MCRO) 2,702.00p 2.50%
Babcock International Group (BAB) 759.50p 2.50%
Hargreaves Lansdown (HL.) 1,587.00p 2.39%
International Consolidated Airlines Group SA (CDI) (IAG) 601.50p 2.12%
3i Group (III) 916.50p 2.00%

FTSE 100 - Fallers

GKN (GKN) 296.00p -4.76%
Royal Dutch Shell 'A' (RDSA) 2,331.00p -2.94%
Mediclinic International (MDC) 578.50p -2.69%
Royal Dutch Shell 'B' (RDSB) 2,378.50p -2.36%
Experian (EXPN) 1,547.00p -2.34%
Fresnillo (FRES) 1,295.00p -2.26%
Marks & Spencer Group (MKS) 303.60p -1.59%
NMC Health (NMC) 2,718.00p -1.16%
Rolls-Royce Holdings (RR.) 897.00p -1.10%
BT Group (BT.A) 244.85p -0.93%

FTSE 250 - Risers

Hikma Pharmaceuticals (HIK) 1,021.00p 6.47%
Crest Nicholson Holdings (CRST) 525.50p 5.90%
Close Brothers Group (CBG) 1,386.00p 5.32%
Sophos Group (SOPH) 607.00p 4.93%
McCarthy & Stone (MCS) 163.50p 4.41%
Sirius Minerals (SXX) 26.05p 4.20%
Provident Financial (PFG) 900.00p 3.57%
Playtech (PTEC) 831.00p 3.36%
Workspace Group (WKP) 957.00p 3.35%
Nex Group (NXG) 589.50p 3.33%

FTSE 250 - Fallers

Dignity (DTY) 1,965.00p -9.24%
Spire Healthcare Group (SPI) 271.10p -8.60%
QinetiQ Group (QQ.) 204.30p -7.14%
TalkTalk Telecom Group (TALK) 168.20p -5.61%
Virgin Money Holdings (UK) (VM.) 260.60p -5.24%
Coats Group (COA) 82.75p -4.11%
Metro Bank (MTRO) 3,450.00p -3.58%
Polymetal International (POLY) 869.00p -3.28%
The Renewables Infrastructure Group Limited (TRIG) 103.50p -2.63%


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Europe Market Report
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Europe close: Benchmarks manage to hold onto gains

Stocks finished in the black on Thursday even as traders pondered out loud whether to participate or not, while keeping a wary eye on the news-flow out of Capitol Hill regarding Republicans'push for tax cuts.

By the closing bell, the benchmark Stoxx 600 was ahead by 0.78% or 2.97 points to 384.93, alongside a rise of 0.55% or 70.85 points to 13,047.22 for the German Dax and a 0.22% or 47.72 point advance on the FTSE Mibtel to 22,206.60.

"Stocks have continued the rebound that began late yesterday, when buyers came in to lift European and UK markets off their lows.

"The sudden outburst of volatility certainly caught many on the hop, with the slow, steady grind higher over the past few months lulling people into a false sense of security. This kind of shakeout is healthy, but already it looks like the bargain hunters have seized their opportunity," commented IG's Chris Beauchamp.

However, others in the City were more cautious, such as CMC Markets's Michael Hewson.

Writing before the start of trading on Thursday, Hewson told clients: "With concerns about high yield credit prompting some profit taking along with a recent survey that showed investors underweight in cash, it wouldn't take much more of a push for markets to fall even further as portfolio managers start to lock in profits as we head towards year end.

"This concern about 'irrational exuberance' could prompt a rush for the exits and potentially send these two particular markets (the Nikkei and Dax) at least another 10% lower, if there is no sign of a stabilisation in the next day or so."

In the background, traders were also keeping a close eye on the prospects for tax reforms in the US.

Overnight, US senator Ron Johnson said he would not support the Senate Republicans' tax package. That meant it would now suffice for just two other senators to pull their support to keep the plan from being approved by the start of December.

Meanwhile, as expected Eurostat reported that consumer prices in the single currency bloc rose by 0.1% on the month in October and by 1.4% over the year, alongside a 0.9% increase at the 'core' level.

Elsewhere, according to ACEA car registration in the European Union grew at a year-on-year clip of 5.9% following a 2.0% drop in the month before. They were even stronger within the single currency bloc, accelerating to a 8.7% clip versus a 1.3% rise in September.


Hargreaves Lansdown

Top of the stocks

Number of Deals Bought

Place EPIC Equity name %
1 SMT Scottish Mortgage Investment Trust 3.58
2 LLOY Lloyds Banking Group plc 2.85
3 GSK GlaxoSmithKline plc 2.41
4 SXX Sirius Minerals plc 1.18
5 BT.A BT Group plc 1.07
6 RCP RIT Capital Partners plc 1.07
7 NG. National Grid 0.98
8 BP. BP Plc 0.92
9 IQE IQE plc 0.87
10 XBT Provider AB 0.86

Number of Deals Sold

Place EPIC Equity name %
1 IQE IQE plc 2.23
2 LLOY Lloyds Banking Group plc 1.45
3 BP. BP Plc 1.16
4 BT.A BT Group plc 1.01
5 WPCT Woodford Patient Capital Trust PLC 0.98
6 FEVR Fevertree Drinks plc 0.96
7 TLW Tullow Oil plc 0.89
8 88E 88 Energy Ltd 0.87
9 UKOG UK Oil & Gas Investments plc 0.85
10 BOO Boohoo.com 0.83

US Market Report

US open: Corporate results, factory data buoy Wall Street

Wall Street is back in the green, bouncing back from weakness earlier in the week thanks to a crop of positive corporate updates and a robust reading on factory output, even as some analysts continue to differ on the outlook.

To take note of, that was despite news overnight that US senator Ron Johnson said he would not support Senate Republicans' tax package, meaning it would now suffice for just two other senators to pull their support to keep the plan from being approved by the start of December.

Against that backdrop, as of 1507 GMT the Dow Jones Industrials was bounding back by 163.41 points or 0.69% to 23,433.81, alongside a 0.63% or 16.15 point gain on the S&P 500 to 2,580.77 and a 0.96% or 64.40 point advance for the Nasdaq Composite to 6,770.47.

In terms of the latest 'analyst chatter', on Wednesday SocGen's 'perma-bear', Albert Edwards, told clients: "Investors are beginning to punish the corporate debt and equity of highly indebted US companies. We have highlighted consistently that excess US corporate debt is probably the key area of vulnerability that could bring down the QE inflated pyramid scheme that the central banks have created."

Going the other way, also on Wednesday analysts at UBS set a year-end 2018 target for the S&P 500 of 2,900, arguing, among other things, that markets had yet to price-in the impact of a cut in the corporate tax rate to 25%.

"Upside asymmetry: Base case of 2900; upside is 2x downside and more likely. We target 2900 for the S&P 500 at 2018 YE, based on EPS of $141 (+8%) and modest P/E expansion to 20.6x. The 2017 rally was fuelled by short covering ($83bn) but retail/foreign buyers are driving the last phase of the bull market and allocations to equity are 5-10pp below prior highs," they said.

As far as the latest readings on the US economy were concerned, Thursday's data were a bit of a 'mixed bag', but October's print on industrial production was clearly better-than-expected while the import price figures for that same month contained - according to some analysts - some indications that prices were headed higher.

From a sector standpoint, the best performance was to be seen in the following industry groups: Telecommunicatons (3.81%), Electronic office equipment (3.63%) and Mobile Telecommunications (2.87%).

Powering gains on the Street, Cisco Systems and Wal Mart bounded higher on the back of their latest quarterly figures.

Shares of data storage outfit NetApp surged after the company posted fiscal second quarter earnings of 81 cents a share (consensus: 69 cents) on the back of stronger than forecast revenues.

Rockwell Automation was also well bid after Emerson Electric put in a revised (unsolicited) bid on the industrial automation outfit of $225 a share, up from an initial $215.

Another Wall Street giant, Coca Cola, was higher too as it reaffirmed its guidance on its Investor Day.

Meanwhile, JM Smucker was ahead despite 2018 sales to be down slightly or flat.

Bringing up the rear, stock in Procter&Gamble stock was edging higher after activist investor Nelson Peltz managed to win a seat on the board.

Dow Jones - Risers

Wal-Mart Stores Inc. (WMT) $97.35 8.37%
Cisco Systems Inc. (CSCO) $36.32 6.49%
Procter & Gamble Co. (PG) $89.25 1.14%
Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (GS) $239.94 0.98%
Apple Inc. (AAPL) $170.73 0.98%
Visa Inc. (V) $111.34 0.97%
Dowdupont Inc. (DWDP) $69.61 0.93%
Home Depot Inc. (HD) $166.91 0.86%
International Business Machines Corp. (IBM) $148.24 0.77%
McDonald's Corp. (MCD) $168.44 0.67%

Dow Jones - Fallers

Chevron Corp. (CVX) $114.92 -1.32%
Exxon Mobil Corp. (XOM) $80.21 -1.23%
Travelers Company Inc. (TRV) $132.18 -1.16%
Caterpillar Inc. (CAT) $136.39 -0.84%
General Electric Co. (GE) $18.20 -0.33%
Walt Disney Co. (DIS) $103.42 -0.27%
Microsoft Corp. (MSFT) $83.06 0.09%
United Technologies Corp. (UTX) $117.74 0.13%
Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) $139.31 0.14%
Verizon Communications Inc. (VZ) $44.20 0.20%

S&P 500 - Risers

NetApp Inc. (NTAP) $52.80 15.24%
Wal-Mart Stores Inc. (WMT) $97.35 8.37%
J. M. Smucker Co. (SJM) $113.80 6.84%
Cisco Systems Inc. (CSCO) $36.32 6.49%
Frontier Communications Co. (FTR) $6.99 4.95%
Rockwell Automation Inc. (ROK) $197.74 4.77%
Amerisource Bergen Corp. (ABC) $78.91 4.66%
Patterson Companies Inc. (PDCO) $35.99 4.47%
SCANA Corp. (SCG) $46.31 4.36%
Pitney Bowes Inc. (PBI) $10.02 4.00%

S&P 500 - Fallers

Best Buy Co. Inc. (BBY) $53.55 -6.56%
Viacom Inc. Class B (VIAB) $23.33 -5.21%
Advance Auto Parts (AAP) $90.84 -5.10%
Discovery Communications Inc. Class C (DISCK) $15.29 -2.92%
Discovery Communications Inc. Class A (DISCA) $16.25 -2.84%
Apache Corp. (APA) $40.74 -2.72%
Emerson Electric Co. (EMR) $59.35 -2.30%
Mylan Inc. (MYL) $37.02 -2.06%
Church Dwight Co Inc. (CHD) $44.81 -2.03%
Alexion Pharmaceuticals Inc. (ALXN) $108.27 -1.88%

Nasdaq 100 - Risers

NetEase Inc. Ads (NTES) $326.70 8.01%
Cisco Systems Inc. (CSCO) $36.32 6.49%
Shire Plc Ads (SHPG) $146.23 4.43%
T-Mobile Us, Inc. (TMUS) $58.71 3.56%
KLA-Tencor Corp. (KLAC) $106.22 3.18%
Paypal Holdings Inc (PYPL) $75.69 3.08%
Applied Materials Inc. (AMAT) $57.37 2.87%
Express Scripts Holding Co (ESRX) $61.56 2.51%
Seagate Technology Plc (STX) $38.59 2.06%
Lam Research Corp. (LRCX) $212.00 1.99%

Nasdaq 100 - Fallers

Viacom Inc. Class B (VIAB) $23.33 -5.21%
Discovery Communications Inc. Class C (DISCK) $15.29 -2.92%
Discovery Communications Inc. Class A (DISCA) $16.25 -2.84%
Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd. - Ordinary Shares (NCLH) $53.61 -2.65%
Mylan Inc. (MYL) $37.02 -2.06%
Alexion Pharmaceuticals Inc. (ALXN) $108.27 -1.88%
Liberty Global Plc Lilac Class C (LILAK) $21.97 -1.21%
Liberty Global Plc Lilac Class A (LILA) $21.95 -0.99%
Regeneron Pharmaceuticals Inc. (REGN) $382.83 -0.90%


Broker Tips

Broker tips: Centrica, Dignity

Kepler Cheuvreux has upgraded Centrica to 'buy' after shares of the energy provider fell past the broker's valuation of the business.

In a note to investors, Ingo Becker, Kepler Cheuvreux's head of utilities, said Centrica's low share price had created an opportunity for investors to "jump in".

Kepler Cheuvreux cut Centrica to 'reduce' in early 2016 when the shares were at 211p. Since then the shares have fallen 22% to well below Becker's price target of 190p. At 11:52 GMT the shares were trading at 166p.

Centrica's shares have dropped due partly to regulatory pressures and the government's decision to impose a cap on prices paid by households on variable tariffs. Centrica owns British Gas, the UK's biggest energy provider for consumers.

Nevertheless, Becker stuck by his original valuation and advised clients to take advantage of the buying opportunity.

Becker wrote: "Political and regulatory scrutiny of the industry […] might be pulling some of the pressure forward, but the overall intensity of pressures already modelled by us back then are now well covered by the share price. We currently see a market opportunity and recommend that investors jump in here."

 

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