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Nov 2, 2017

Evening Euro Markets Bulletin

 
ADVFN III Evening Euro Markets Bulletin
Daily world financial news Thursday, 02 November 2017 17:40:28
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London Market Report
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London close: FTSE higher on rate rise as sterling tumbles

The top flight index closed higher on Thursday as the pound skidded versus both the dollar and the euro after the Bank of England hiked interest rates for the first time in a decade, as widely expected.

By the close, the FTSE 100 was up 0.90% to 7,555.32, while the pound was down 1.71% against the euro at 1.1205 and 1.41% weaker versus the greenback at 1.3063.

Over in Europe, stocks were a little less upbeat with the DAX trading 0.18% lower to 13,440.93, the CAC 40 down 0.07% to 5,510.50 and the IBEX 35 0.43% weaker at 10,457.80.

Sterling's losses came as currency traders took profits after the BoE voted 7-2 to lift interest rates to 0.5% from 0.25% - the first hike since July 2007 - in a move that reverses the cut implemented in August 2016 in the aftermath of the Brexit vote.

The stock benchmark had been trading a touch higher before the announcement, but share price gains were extended as the pound took a hit. A weaker sterling tends to benefit the FTSE 100 as around 70% of its constituents derive most of their earnings from overseas.

"The market is clearly seeing this as a dovish hike and the cautious comments in the accompanying statement have led many to believe that this is a case of one-and-done rather than the start of a sustained hiking cycle," said David Cheetham, chief market analyst at XTB.

Forecasts from the BoE suggested inflation would be under control in the medium term if interest rates rose to 1% by late 2019, but the monetary policy committee said any futures increases in the Bank Rate would be "at a gradual pace and to a limited extent".

Rain Newton-Smith, CBI chief economist, said: "The decision to raise interest rates comes as no surprise, given the recent signals from the Bank and several monetary policy committee members signalling their intention to vote for a change of course.

"While it’s the first rate rise in over a decade, it is only taking the rate back to the level seen in August 2016 and at 0.5% it remains near rock bottom.

"Businesses will be watching the reaction of consumers closely and what’s important is the pace of any future rises. As rates creep up, it’ll be important to keep an eye on the impact for those at the lower end of the income scale."

All eyes will be on the US again on Thursday evening as US President Trump is due to announce the successor to Janet Yellen as chair of the US central bank, amid expectations he will plump for Fed Governor Jerome Powell.

Earlier, some distraction from central bank news had come from data showing the UK construction downturn unexpectedly eased a little last month, though confidence in the outlook waned to almost a five-year low. The Markit/CIPS construction purchasing managers’ index rose to 50.8 in October from 48.1 in September, beating the consensus forecast of 48.5.

A pickup in new orders to 50.5 from 48.5 in September indicates that the headline PMI may hold steady over coming months.

However, while the marginal upturn in overall construction output was led by house-building, civil engineering activity slumped to a four-year low and commercial construction activity also saw lower volumes.

Housebuilding groups, Persimmon and Barratt were among the main fallers on the FTSE 100, with Taylor Wimpey trading flat.

In other corporate news, WM Morrison was in the red despite saying reporting a 2.5% increase in third-quarter like-for-like sales.

Randgold Resources fell after the gold miner posted a drop in profit and production for the third quarter, but said it was on track to meet its 2017 guidance.

RSA Insurance was also on the back foot after it said that it has set aside £50m for US and Caribbean catastrophic events in the third quarter, warning that the number could rise.

GlaxoSmithKline edged higher after saying that it has received FDA approval to fast-track a new cancer treatment.

Lancashire Holdings was lower as it posted a third-quarter loss due to natural catastrophes, while Ashmore and Dunelm slipped as their stock went ex-dividend.

Playtech tumbled after the gambling software development group said that its performance for the full year well be around 5% below the bottom end of market expectations due to a slowdown in Asia and challenges with its Sun Bingo contract.

BT reversed earlier gains to trade lower as it failed to impress investors by maintaining its dividend, with sales and profits down in the first half.

On the upside, Howden Joinery, Tate & Lyle and Intu Properties were all trading higher after well-received updates.

 


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Market Movers

FTSE 100 (UKX) 7,555.32 0.90%
FTSE 250 (MCX) 20,385.48 0.28%
techMARK (TASX) 3,549.38 0.16%

FTSE 100 - Risers

Mediclinic International (MDC) 600.00p 3.99%
Royal Dutch Shell 'A' (RDSA) 2,434.00p 3.16%
Smurfit Kappa Group (SKG) 2,378.00p 3.03%
Standard Chartered (STAN) 725.80p 2.95%
BHP Billiton (BLT) 1,445.50p 2.74%
Rio Tinto (RIO) 3,743.50p 2.49%
Antofagasta (ANTO) 993.50p 2.42%
Royal Dutch Shell 'B' (RDSB) 2,475.00p 2.40%
NMC Health (NMC) 2,959.00p 2.21%
Shire Plc (SHP) 3,735.00p 1.99%

FTSE 100 - Fallers

Randgold Resources Ltd. (RRS) 6,930.00p -7.23%
BT Group (BT.A) 253.60p -2.65%
Convatec Group (CTEC) 186.90p -2.55%
Rentokil Initial (RTO) 327.00p -2.24%
RSA Insurance Group (RSA) 622.50p -1.66%
easyJet (EZJ) 1,329.00p -1.48%
Fresnillo (FRES) 1,307.00p -1.13%
Lloyds Banking Group (LLOY) 67.94p -1.01%
Royal Bank of Scotland Group (RBS) 281.80p -0.95%
ITV (ITV) 160.50p -0.93%

FTSE 250 - Risers

Howden Joinery Group (HWDN) 454.10p 10.11%
Ladbrokes Coral Group (LCL) 134.10p 5.51%
Intu Properties (INTU) 221.20p 3.80%
Pets at Home Group (PETS) 183.30p 3.68%
Petrofac Ltd. (PFC) 437.60p 3.67%
Tullow Oil (TLW) 192.20p 3.28%
Kier Group (KIE) 1,087.00p 3.03%
Royal Mail (RMG) 380.80p 2.95%
CLS Holdings (CLI) 229.10p 2.69%
IMI (IMI) 1,271.00p 2.67%

FTSE 250 - Fallers

Electra Private Equity (ELTA) 968.50p -48.13%
Playtech (PTEC) 768.00p -22.15%
Acacia Mining (ACA) 174.50p -4.12%
CYBG (CYBG) 304.10p -3.70%
Softcat (SCT) 525.50p -3.58%
Ashmore Group (ASHM) 375.00p -3.38%
Centamin (DI) (CEY) 138.40p -3.15%
Dunelm Group (DNLM) 697.00p -2.92%
FDM Group (Holdings) (FDM) 940.00p -2.84%


The Top 10 Stocks for Q4

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US Market Report

US open: Wall Street set for dip, despite tax reform and Fed news

Stocks have started the session lower with investors reacting poorly to the latest quarterly updates out of Facebook and Tesla overnight and ahead of Friday's all-important monthly US jobs report.

The muted start to trading on Thursday was also despite leaks of Republicans' tax reform plans and 'market chatter' that the White House was set to name current Federal Reserve governor Jerome Powell in the place of Janet Yellen next March.

Against that backdrop, as of 1413 GMT, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was down by 0.24% or 56.93 points at 23,378, alongside a 0.36% or 9.39 point fall in the S&P 500 to 2,570 and a 0.31% or 20.28 point dip in the Nasdaq Composite to 6,696.

From a sector standpoint, the weakest segments of the market were: Durable hosuehold products (-7.19%), Furnishings (-3.20%) and Home construction (-3.09%).

Traders yawn amid reports Powell to succeed Yellen as Fed chair

Where news of Powell's likely nomination was being felt was in the Treasury market, where the yield on the benchmark 10-year US Treasury note was trading lower by three basis points at 2.34%. Banks were lower in tandem with the KBW sector index down 0.66% to 101.02.

According to Kathleen Brooks, research director at City Index, Powell was the "continuity choice" although he was seen as "soft" on financial market regulation.

Brooks also pointed out that the position of Fed vice chair had yet to be filled as were four other seats in the central bank's top echelons. Hence, there was still room for surprises on that front, she surmised.

"The prospect of tax reform has been discounted by the markets over recent months anyways, which is another reason why Powell and his regulatory stance could be the next main driver of US banks in the coming months.

"[...] Overall, we expect the Powell nomination to be taken in the market's stride, but as we mention above, it is the other positions (spefically, John Taylor as Fed vicechair) that could really shake things up at the Fed, so we wait and see who is next to be nominated to the board," she said.

On the economic front, according to the Journal US House Republicans would propose a permanent reduction in the corporate tax rate from 35% to 20% and a reduction in the number of individual income tax brackets - and a repeal on taxes paid by large estates.

Meanwhile, the Department of Labor reported a 3.0% in non-farm labour productivity during the third quarter (consensus:1.9%).

The drop in weekly jobless claims also exceeded economists' forecasts, dropping by 5,000 to reach 229,000 (Barclays: 240,000).

In corporate news, shares of electric car maker Tesla was down after it posted a bigger-than-expected loss late on Wednesday, while Facebook was also in the red despite better-than-expected quarterly earnings late on Wednesday.

Qualcomm on the other hand was higher despite the chip designer reporting a near-90% drop in fourth-quarter profit.

Elsewhere, Yum Brands was also in the red in the wake of its third-quarter numbers, the same as DowDuPont after the company announced job cuts as part of a cost-cutting plan although it did post third-quarter profit and sales ahead of analysts' expectations.

Apple and Starbucks would report after markets closed.


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Broker Tips

Broker tips: B&M Retail, Fevertree, StanChart

Things are still looking up for B&M Retail's share price, Jefferies argues ahead of the company's interims, pointing to the firm's solid scores on customer satisfaction and the potential for its acquisition of Heron Foods to add to growth.

In a survey of 3,000 UK consumers, the broker found that the retailer was still gaining new clients, with its net promoter score rising for both groceries and homeware, which it said was a good omen for future market share gains.

The recent purchase of Heron Foods was also promising, it said, opening the door to the prospect of a North-to-South 'B&M style' roll-out strategy which implied scope for more than 1,500 stores.

It also offered the potential to leverage the 'know-how' acquired on how to sell frozen foods as US rivals Dollar General and Big Lots had done.

So despite the shares having outperformed the wider sector by 50% year-to-date, Jefferies revised its target on the stock to 470p, from 415p, while keeping its recommendation at 'buy'.


Analysts at RBC Capital Markets slashed their target on shares of Fevertree ahead of the re-launch of Schweppes's more premium 1783 brand and in light of the recent acceleration in the rate of organic growth in the company's sales in the UK market to over 60% since the backhalf of 2016.

They conceded the company's "strong execution" and the "extraordinary" performance of its premium gin category but were wary of reports that Schweppes was set to make the largest ever investment - roughly £6.6m according to Marketing Week - in the above brand.

Somewhat ironically too, Fevertree's success meant its growth profile was also more exposed to such a threat, what with sales in Britain expected to account for 45% of the total in fiscal year 2017 for a market share of 30%.

Hence, RBC lowered its projections for the company's rate of organic sales growth between 2017 to 2019 in the UK from 60%, 20% and 14% to 50%, 10% and 10%, respectively.


Hargreaves Lansdown

Top of the stocks

Number of Deals Bought

Place EPIC Equity name %
1 GSK GlaxoSmithKline plc 6.09
2 GGP Greatland Gold Plc 3.69
3 BARC Barclays plc 2.32
4 LLOY Lloyds Banking Group plc 2.23
5 VAST Vast Resources plc 1.79
6 SXX Sirius Minerals plc 1.52
7 UKOG UK Oil & Gas Investments plc 1.14
8 BT.A BT Group plc 1.08
9 SMT Scottish Mortgage Investment Trust 1.04
10 ULVR Unilever plc 0.93

Number of Deals Sold

Place EPIC Equity name %
1 LLOY Lloyds Banking Group plc 3.23
2 GGP Greatland Gold Plc 2.37
3 VAST Vast Resources plc 1.43
4 SXX Sirius Minerals plc 1.42
5 UKOG UK Oil & Gas Investments plc 1.06
6 GSK GlaxoSmithKline plc 0.93
7 GLEN Glencore plc 0.87
8 BDEV Barratt Developments plc 0.86
9 BOO Boohoo.com 0.86
10 BP. BP Plc 0.86
 

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