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Nov 15, 2017

Evening Euro Markets Bulletin

 
ADVFN III Evening Euro Markets Bulletin
Daily world financial news Wednesday, 15 November 2017 18:30:48
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London Market Report
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London close: FTSE falls to six-week low as miners continue retreat

London stocks closed at a six week low on Wednesday amid some signs of weakness in the employment market and Chinese concerns weighing on commodities companies.

The FTSE 100 finished down 0.6% to 7,372.61, closing below the 7,400 level for the first time since September, while the pound was down 0.4% versus the euro at 1.1115 but flat against the dollar at 1.3166, as the greenback was weighed by worries about the progress being made on US tax reform.

Equities are extending losses from the previous session in a "general risk-off move", said analyst Mike van Dulken at Accendo Markets, pointing to metals prices hit by Chinese data and and oil oversupply concerns.

"Compounding this are nerves about tomorrow's US tax vote and dovish comments from the Fed's Evans which have sent USD lower, resulting in reciprocal yet unwelcome GBP and EUR strength this side of the pond," he said.

In any other year Chris Beauchamp at IG said warning signs would be flashing: "Stocks are falling, volatility is on the up, China's economic growth appears to be weakening and we even have a military coup to deal with. On the face of it, the situation would be ripe for a big selloff in equity markets, but this is not 2008 or even 2015.

"Below the surface some sectors, such as utilities, are recovering, while in the UK and Europe markets are off their lows. It is options expiration week, and a look at positioning through put/call ratios suggests sentiment has become excessively bearish.

But Thanksgiving is on the horizon, which tends to be positive for markets and with all the central bank money sloshing around the system, Beauchamp suspects "2017 will work its magic once again and the dip buyers will have their way".

CONCERNS FOR CRUDE AND UK EMPLOYMENT

Oil prices were hit by reports from the IEA and the American Petroleum Institute, which reported a surprise build-up in US inventories of crude oil and gasoline.

There were concerns for the UK consumer spending as figures from the Office for National Statistics showed average weekly earnings for the three months to September rose 2.2% compared to the same period last year, which was more than the 2.1% consensus forecast but down from a revised August figure of 2.3% and well below the 3% rate of inflation.

Earnings excluding bonuses increased 2.2% in the period, in line with the 2.2% expected by economists and growth in the preceding period.

Meanwhile, the unemployment rate stayed at 4.3% in the three months to September, as expected, but there was a 14,000 fall in employment in the three months to September, the first decline since April 2013, which dragged annual employment growth down to 0.6%, the lowest since 2012.

Barclays economists felt the report showed slowing employment growth, reversing some of the strength seen earlier this year, while Howard Archer, chief economic advisor to the EY ITEM Club, said there were "signs in the latest data that the UK labour market could be faltering after extended resilience".

MINERS MAULED, DEFENSIVES GAIN

Looking at individual stocks, miners were a big weight on the blue chip index as metals prices fell, with Rio Tinto, Glencore, BHP Billiton, Anglo American and Antofagasta all extending losses from the previous session.

TalkTalk Telecom took the worst beating as it drummed up an impressive number of new customers in the first half of the year but at the expense of profits, which fell into the red. Management reiterated that their focus in on growth before profits, but investors did not like the interim dividend being halved.

NMC Health was another at the bottom of the barrel, hurt by a note from Jefferies that commented on the company's capital markets day. "Although the day was well-attended, we feel somewhat disappointed there was limited incremental info, which leaves narrow support for its current valuation," the bank said, with its biggest concern remaining potential underlying pressures on the base business in Dubai.

3i Group was lower a day before its interim results.

Legal & General retreated after it said that its investment management arm, an active management powerhouse, has entered the world of passives with an agreement to acquire Canvas, an ETF platform, for an undisclosed sum.

Housebuilder Barratt Developments was on the back foot despite saying it has made a strong start to the year and remains confident of delivering a good performance in FY18, while sector peer Crest Nicholson was weaker despite posting a rise in full-year unit completions, as it warned that maintaining momentum through planning is a major challenge for the industry.

Wizz Air flew lower after it signed a memorandum of understanding with Airbus relating to the purchase of a further 146 Airbus A320neo family aircraft, while Card Factory slipped after posting revenue growth but saying margins were under pressure.

On the upside, precious metals miner Fresnillo was the standout gainer as HSBC lifted the stock 'buy' from 'hold, referring to it as a "sector leader at a discount" after the shares fell 26% from their year-to-date peak of 1,825p.

Fresnillo and Randgold Resources were also benefiting from a rise in gold prices, as investors looked for a safe place to park their cash in 'risk off' trade. Other defensive sectors such as utilities and insurers were on the up amid some safe haven buying.

Pharma is another traditional defensive haven but AstraZeneca was trading up after it and its global biologics research and development arm, MedImmune, announced that the US Food and Drug Administration has approved its Fasenra asthma drug.

Cobham rose after saying that trading remains on track as it reiterated its full-year guidance and added that its strategic review is still ongoing.

Great Portland Estates advanced after reporting a 1% improvement in its portfolio valuation in its first half results, with the value of its developments rising 1.6% over the half-year.


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Market Movers

FTSE 100 (UKX) 7,372.61 -0.56%
FTSE 250 (MCX) 19,693.38 -0.77%
techMARK (TASX) 3,424.54 -0.10%

FTSE 100 - Risers

Fresnillo (FRES) 1,325.00p 3.27%
BT Group (BT.A) 247.65p 1.60%
Bunzl (BNZL) 2,146.00p 1.47%
Vodafone Group (VOD) 229.45p 1.06%
Barclays (BARC) 182.40p 0.94%
SSE (SSE) 1,355.00p 0.89%
Randgold Resources Ltd. (RRS) 7,045.00p 0.79%
National Grid (NG.) 890.10p 0.75%
Aviva (AV.) 497.30p 0.73%
ITV (ITV) 151.00p 0.67%

FTSE 100 - Fallers

NMC Health (NMC) 2,750.00p -3.61%
3i Group (III) 898.50p -3.39%
Mondi (MNDI) 1,721.00p -3.10%
WPP (WPP) 1,253.00p -2.87%
Johnson Matthey (JMAT) 3,288.00p -2.49%
Smurfit Kappa Group (SKG) 2,197.00p -2.09%
Tesco (TSCO) 184.20p -2.05%
DCC (DCC) 7,095.00p -1.94%
Taylor Wimpey (TW.) 192.00p -1.74%
BP (BP.) 495.00p -1.59%

FTSE 250 - Risers

Cobham (COB) 130.40p 2.68%
Evraz (EVR) 287.60p 2.53%
Dairy Crest Group (DCG) 559.00p 2.47%
Great Portland Estates (GPOR) 624.00p 2.46%
International Public Partnerships Ltd. (INPP) 157.40p 2.14%
Hansteen Holdings (HSTN) 136.20p 1.95%
Provident Financial (PFG) 869.00p 1.94%
Just Eat (JE.) 803.00p 1.84%
Royal Mail (RMG) 389.00p 1.54%
Hikma Pharmaceuticals (HIK) 959.00p 1.00%

FTSE 250 - Fallers

TalkTalk Telecom Group (TALK) 178.20p -5.96%
Nostrum Oil & Gas (NOG) 348.90p -5.58%
Tullow Oil (TLW) 172.40p -5.07%
Crest Nicholson Holdings (CRST) 495.80p -4.47%
Cairn Energy (CNE) 202.00p -3.86%
Hunting (HTG) 491.40p -3.84%
Brown (N.) Group (BWNG) 271.20p -3.49%
Hiscox Limited (DI) (HSX) 1,419.00p -3.47%
OneSavings Bank (OSB) 376.90p -3.36%


Europe Market Report
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Europe close: Stocks come off lows as copper rebounds, euro slips back

European stocks managed to close off their worst levels of the session as strength in the euro abated, despite increased caution on the part of investors amid what some analysts described as "diminished expectations for US tax reforms".

By the closing bell, the benchmark Stoxx 600 was off by 0.49% or 1.90 points to 381.96, alongside a 0.44% or 57.11 point fall to 12,976.37 on the German Dax and a retreat of 0.62% or 138.20 points in the FTSE Mibtel to 22,158.88.

Weakness in commodity price also contributed to weakness in share prices, although come the closing bell copper futures had recovered from an earlier swoon, helping the Stoxx 600's sector gauge for Basic Resources to trim its losses to 1.09% for a close at 431.12.

Front month Brent crude oil futures also came of their lows, but nevertheless ended the day 0.48% lower at $61.92 a barrel after Bloomberg reported that Moscow thought the 30 November OPEC meeting was too soon to commit to continued output cuts.

For their part, three-month LME copper closed at $6,773 per metric tonne versus $6,867 at Tuesday's close.

In parallel, euro-dollar ended the session down by 0.01% at 1.1796 - having hit an intraday high of 1.1860 earlier - on the back of stronger than expected prints for US consumer prices and retail sales in October.

"US markets also struggled to make gains closing lower, as investors took their cues from disappointing Chinese data which raised concerns of a disappointing end to the year for the world's second biggest economy, as well as diminishing expectations of progress on US tax reform," said Michael Hewson, chief market analyst at CMC Markets UK.

"Equities are extending yesterday's losses in a general risk-off move. This follows more China-inspired selling of metals overnight to hurt the commodity space and an IEA report on oil adding fuel to the global oversupply story. Compounding this are nerves about tomorrow's US tax vote and dovish comments from the Fed's Evans which have sent USD lower, resulting in reciprocal yet unwelcome GBP and EUR strength this side of the pond," chipped in Mike van Dulken at Accendo Markets.

On the economic data front, according to revised data from INSEE French consumer prices advanced by 0.2% month-on-month and 1.2% on the year in October, confirming a preliminary estimate.

In other news, the Eurozone's seasonally adjusted trade surplus increased from €21.0bn in August to €25.0bn for September, reaching its highest level on record, according to Eurostat.

Meanwhile, in the corporate space, Airbus said it had clinched a 450 plane order with Indigo Partners valued at $49.5bn - the largest in the manufacturer's history - for 273 A320 neo jets and 157 of the bigger A321neo model.

Elsewhere, German speciality chemicals-maker Lanxess posted adjusted net profits of €106m for the three months to September up from €77m a year earlier on 25% higher sales to €2.4bn.


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US Market Report

US open: Stocks come off lows after stronger than expected data

Wall Street is trading slightly lower, but well-off its intra-day lows, following the release of stronger than expected consumer price inflation and retail sales data for October and amid lingering concerns about the progress being made by the White House on tax reforms.

At 1629 GMT, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was down by 0.34% or 78.62 points at 23,331.17, alongside a dip of 0.31% for the S&P 500 to 2,570.85 while the Nasdaq Composite was lower by 0.28% or 18.58 points to 6,719.21.

From a sector standpoint, the weakest areas of the market were Non-ferrous metals (-4.37%), Oil equipment (-2.78%) and Coal (-2.48%).

Meanwhile, West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures were paring earlier losses to trade down by 0.6% to $55.37 a barrel on the ICE even after the US Department reported a 1.9m barrel build (consensus: -2.2m) in US stockpiles last week.

IG analyst Joshua Mahony said: "The deterioration in global stocks clearly has a footing in last week's Senate announcement that we may not see a US corporate tax cut until 2019. However, the worst may not be over yet. With Senate Majority leader Mitch McConnell hoping to add a repeal of the 'individual mandate' into the bill as a way to undermine Obamacare, the pathway to tax reform just got more complicated."

On the data front, total US retail sales volumes increased by 0.2% month-on-month in October to reach $486.6bn, according to the Department of Commerce (consensus: 0.1%), alongside upwards revisions to data for the previous month.

In parallel, the Department of Labor said that 'core' consumer price gains accelerated to a 1.8% pace year-on-year last month from a 1.7% clip in September.

Commenting on the data, Ian Shepherdson, chief economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics said: "The y/y rate nudged up to 1.8% from 1.7%; it will remain close to this rate until March, the anniversary of the first of the soft numbers this year. At that point, the y/y rate will start to rise rapidly, and will be 2.5%-plus by late summer.

"The three-month annualized rate is now 2.4%, up from a low of zero in May. The "transitory" and "idiosyncratic" factors are fading."

Be that as it may, the yield on the benchmark 10-year US Treasury note was down by four basis points to 2.33%.

In corporate news, investors were digesting date showing that Soros Fund Management hived-off large numbers of shares in tech giants Facebook, Apple, Snap and Twitter.

Discount store Target - which is in the throes of a turnaround plan - was also in focus after it posted a bigger-than-expected jump in quarterly same-store sales.

However, weaker-than-expected guidance from the retailer more than offset that good news, sending shares spiraling lower.

Advance Auto Parts was also in the headlines as the company's stock price skyrocketed in the wake of stronger than forecast quarterly profits.


Hargreaves Lansdown

Top of the stocks

Number of Deals Bought

Place EPIC Equity name %
1 SMT Scottish Mortgage Investment Trust 3.58
2 LLOY Lloyds Banking Group plc 2.85
3 GSK GlaxoSmithKline plc 2.41
4 SXX Sirius Minerals plc 1.18
5 BT.A BT Group plc 1.07
6 RCP RIT Capital Partners plc 1.07
7 NG. National Grid 0.98
8 BP. BP Plc 0.92
9 IQE IQE plc 0.87
10 XBT Provider AB 0.86

Number of Deals Sold

Place EPIC Equity name %
1 IQE IQE plc 2.23
2 LLOY Lloyds Banking Group plc 1.45
3 BP. BP Plc 1.16
4 BT.A BT Group plc 1.01
5 WPCT Woodford Patient Capital Trust PLC 0.98
6 FEVR Fevertree Drinks plc 0.96
7 TLW Tullow Oil plc 0.89
8 88E 88 Energy Ltd 0.87
9 UKOG UK Oil & Gas Investments plc 0.85
10 BOO Boohoo.com 0.83
 

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