| | | | | | | The Top 10 Stocks for Q4 Our latest quarterly stocks report analyses the top and bottom 10 FTSE 100 performers of 2017 so far and looks at our Top Ten Stock Picks for Q4 including City broker consensus and their average target price for each stock. Losses can exceed deposits Download the report here | | |
| | London Market Report |  | | FTSE 100 | Euronext | Dax perf | CAC 40 |  |  |  |  | | Please click on the images to view our interactive charts | | | London open: Stocks little changed ahead of payrolls, easyJet flies lower London stocks were inching very modestly higher at the open on Friday, with investors reluctant to make any bold moves either way ahead of the latest non-farm payrolls report.
At 0830 BST, the FTSE 100 was up 0.1% to 7,513.12, while the pound was down 0.3% against the dollar at 1.3080 and 0.1% weaker versus the euro at 1.1190, still weighed down by political uncertainty following Prime Minister Theresa May's speech at the Tory party conference.
Spreadex analyst Connor Campbell said: "While on Thursday there was a web of reasons why the pound was driven lower, this Friday's decline seems to have a more singular reason behind it: Tory infighting.
"The sound of sharpening knives has only grown louder since Theresa May's Thick of It-esque speech mid-week. Last night there were reports that a group of Conservative 'rebels' were seeking advice from those who deposed of Ian Duncan Smith back in 2003, while this morning former Tory chairman Grant Shapps has claimed a number of MPs privately agree that the PM should go."
The non-farm payrolls report for September is due at 1330 BST, along with the unemployment rate and average hourly earnings.
Konstantinos Anthis at ADS Securities said: "The toll that Hurricane Harvey had on the US economy is yet unknown but it's bound to be reflected on this month's jobs report which will undoubtedly print on the soft side.
"However, there are some indications that this may be less bearish than some think. Strong manufacturing and services ISM figures and a positive ADP reading suggest that the NFPs might not come in as low as expected today, so we might be in for a surprise."
In corporate news, CRH was on the back foot after its proposed $3.5bn acquisition of US-based Ash Grove was facing possible derailment after the Kansas company received a potentially larger rival offer.
Budget airline easyJet flew lower despite saying pre-tax profit for the year is expected to be at the upper end of the previously guided range as it reported a record number of passengers over the summer.
On the upside, Ultra Electronics was in the black after it said that shareholders in Sparton have approved the acquisition agreed earlier this year.
NMC Health was boosted by an initiation at 'buy' by Berenberg, while Barratt Developments gained after Credit Suisse lifted it to 'outperform' and Pets at Home rallied on an upbeat note from HSBC. |
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| Market Movers
FTSE 100 (UKX) 7,507.99 0.54%
FTSE 250 (MCX) 20,088.51 0.30%
techMARK (TASX) 3,539.95 0.52%
FTSE 100 - Risers
Merlin Entertainments (MERL) 463.80p 3.43%
Anglo American (AAL) 1,473.50p 3.04%
Glencore (GLEN) 370.30p 3.03%
Antofagasta (ANTO) 996.50p 2.36%
Worldpay Group (WPG) 414.40p 1.82%
Paddy Power Betfair (PPB) 7,665.00p 1.79%
Rio Tinto (RIO) 3,676.00p 1.79%
Mediclinic International (MDC) 664.00p 1.61%
Tesco (TSCO) 186.60p 1.44%
Schroders (SDR) 3,437.00p 1.39%
FTSE 100 - Fallers
Aviva (AV.) 489.90p -1.72%
Next (NXT) 5,170.00p -1.43%
WPP (WPP) 1,384.00p -1.35%
Smurfit Kappa Group (SKG) 2,350.00p -1.34%
G4S (GFS) 278.60p -1.28%
Barclays (BARC) 190.15p -1.14%
Centrica (CNA) 177.50p -1.00%
CRH (CRH) 2,810.00p -0.88%
British Land Company (BLND) 602.00p -0.82%
BAE Systems (BA.) 615.00p -0.81%
FTSE 250 - Risers
Tullow Oil (TLW) 190.80p 4.26%
Kaz Minerals (KAZ) 856.50p 4.20%
Amec Foster Wheeler (AMFW) 545.50p 4.10%
Wood Group (John) (WG.) 728.00p 4.00%
Aldermore Group (ALD) 237.20p 3.85%
Tritax Big Box Reit (BBOX) 146.90p 3.60%
BTG (BTG) 714.00p 3.25%
TBC Bank Group (TBCG) 1,675.00p 3.19%
Cairn Energy (CNE) 195.20p 2.95%
Coats Group (COA) 85.60p 2.51%
FTSE 250 - Fallers
Hochschild Mining (HOC) 222.90p -4.50%
AA (AA.) 157.40p -3.26%
Hays (HAS) 188.20p -2.94%
Acacia Mining (ACA) 185.80p -2.72%
Smith (DS) (SMDS) 502.00p -2.52%
Sports Direct International (SPD) 398.30p -2.43%
Virgin Money Holdings (UK) (VM.) 278.50p -2.38%
CYBG (CYBG) 300.60p -2.18%
Euromoney Institutional Investor (ERM) 1,119.00p -2.13% |
| | 
Top of the stocks Number of Deals Bought Number of Deals Sold |
| | Stocks to Watch |  | | FTSE 100 | Euronext | Dax perf | CAC 40 |  | | | | | | Will non-farm payrolls be a non-event this month? Friday's prime market focus at this time of the month is US non-farm payrolls, but with the Federal Reserve nailed on for a December rate hike, there seems to be less hanging on the data this time.
Nevertheless, for currency traders there is sure to be some movement on the dollar dial, while the VIX volatility index could break from its multi-month low if there's any surprise in the payroll numbers.
A day before the payrolls report the ADP employment change reading came in bang on the money at 135k, which is the lowest reading since October 2016 due to the impact of hurricanes Harvey and Irma. The ADP is always followed closely as an estimate of Friday's NFP number.
A further preview was provided by the initial jobless claims for last week, which declined to 260k, falling slightly more than consensus expectations. Claims have started to return to more normal levels following the spike post-Hurricanes, though.
The three-month rolling average for non-farm payrolls is 185k, with August' coming in at 156k but the consensus for Friday's September reading is a conservative 80k, based on the anticipated hurricane impact.
"Dollar weakness on any miss would probably be short-lived as the Fed is intent on raising rates in December and a softer NFP will not change that," said Neil Wilson at ETX Capital. "Friday's numbers will have a much bigger margin for a miss than usual after the inclement weather in the US."
Economists at HSBC said the likely effects of Hurricanes Harvey and Irma on the national labour market data are difficult to predict, noting that in 2005, hundreds of thousands of people were displaced by hurricane Katrina and massive job losses seen in subsequent employment reports, while 2012's hurricane Sandy was not felt to have a substantive impact on national employment.
Figures on weekly initial claims suggest that over 100,000 people have filed for unemployment insurance in Texas and Florida as a consequence of the recent disasters.
"However, the impact of the hurricanes on the September payroll data could end up being smaller, depending in part on how many of the affected persons worked or received pay for some portion of the relevant time period," HSBC said, placing its estimate at 105,000.
The US unemployment is expected to remain at 4.4%, according to the consensus, with average hourly earnings forecast to climb 0.3% month-on-month, edging up to 2.6% from 2.5% on the year.
Friday's jobs data is a little less important than usual since there are diminishing returns on what the headline number means for inflation, said ETX's Wilson, looking to earnings data as the key reading.
"The US labour market is already tight although we will as ever look for any change in the labour force participation rate to see if there is any hidden slack being absorbed.
"Arguably wages are the key here and are expecting to increase 0.3%. There is some sense that the weak inflation data may be coming to an end and we may start to see firmer price growth into the year's end. Stronger wage growth would likely feed into a higher PCE inflation reading in Q4."
Friday October 06
INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTS
Factory Orders (GER) (15:00)
Non-Farm Payrolls (US) (13:30)
Unemployment Rate (US) (13:30)
UK ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTS
Halifax House Price Index (08:30)
INTERIM DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATE
Acencia Debt Strategies Ltd., Admiral Group, Aggreko, Antofagasta, Camellia, Capital Drilling Ltd. (DI), Clarke (T.), Crest Nicholson Holdings, Devro, Drax Group, Eurocell , Glanbia, Gocompare.com Group, Grafton Group Units, Greggs, H&T Group, Impellam Group, InterContinental Hotels Group, International Personal Finance, Irish Continental Group Units, IWG , Kingspan Group, Melrose Industries, Property Franchise Group, Tex Holdings
QUARTERLY PAYMENT DATE
Aberdeen Diversified Income and Growth Trust , Blackrock North American Income Trust , Land Securities Group
QUARTERLY EX-DIVIDEND DATE
Marsh & Mclennan Cos Inc.
SPECIAL DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATE
Admiral Group
AGMS
Abbey
FINAL DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATE
AdEPT Telecom, Fletcher King, Goodwin Plc, Jupiter Green Inv Trust |
| | US Market Report | | Markets continue record run as investors digest data US stocks notched fresh record highs again on Thursday as investors digested a series of data releases and speeches from Federal Reserve officials.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average finished up 0.5% at 22,775.39, the S&P 500 added 0.56% to 2,552.07 and the Nasdaq 100 was ahead 0.97% at 6,057.14.
Market participants were mulling over comments from Fed governor Jerome Powell, who refrained from saying anything about monetary policy when he spoke earlier at a Fed-sponsored Treasury Market Practices Group.
He said industry groups can help to "fill in the cracks" left by competing regulations enforced by US agencies.
"There is certainly a role for regulation, but regulation should always take into account the impact that it has on markets, a balance that must be constantly weighed. More regulation is not the best answer to every problem," he said.
Meanwhile, San Francisco Fed President John Williams said at conference of community banks and state bank supervisors that the long-term trend in annual US economic growth might be as low as 1.5%, meaning that future interest rates will be lower than historical norms.
On the data front, US initial jobless claims decreased by 12,000 from the previous week's unrevised level to 260,000.
Economists had been expecting a smaller drop to 265,000.
The four-week moving average was down 9,500 from the previous week's unrevised average to 268,250.
Figures from the Commerce Department showed that the US trade deficit narrowed more than expected in August, to $42.4bn from a revised $43.6bn the month before. Economists had expected a figure of $42.7bn.
Meanwhile, factory goods orders rose 1.2% according to the Commerce Department, compared with a 3.3% drop in July and expectations for a 1% increase.
In corporate news, SeaWorld Entertainment was in the red by 6.52%, giving back some of the previous day's gains following reports that Legoland owner Merlin Entertainments is looking to buy part of the water park operator.
Brewer Constellation Brands rallied 4.01% after its quarterly earnings beat on profit, while Microsoft was in the black after Canaccord Genuity upped the stock to 'buy'.
Biogen was also trading 3.75% higher as Morgan Stanley bumped it up to 'overweight'.
Dow Jones - Risers
Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (GS) $246.06 2.39%
Microsoft Corp. (MSFT) $75.97 1.71%
Apple Inc. (AAPL) $155.39 1.24%
Boeing Co. (BA) $258.89 1.22%
McDonald's Corp. (MCD) $158.80 1.01%
Visa Inc. (V) $106.24 0.88%
Chevron Corp. (CVX) $118.58 0.85%
JP Morgan Chase & Co. (JPM) $97.09 0.76%
Home Depot Inc. (HD) $166.12 0.50%
Intel Corp. (INTC) $39.53 0.48%
Dow Jones - Fallers
Unitedhealth Group Inc. (UNH) $197.90 -1.29%
Walt Disney Co. (DIS) $100.12 -0.44%
Procter & Gamble Co. (PG) $92.03 -0.42%
Caterpillar Inc. (CAT) $126.40 -0.27%
Verizon Communications Inc. (VZ) $49.77 -0.26%
3M Co. (MMM) $216.33 -0.07%
E.I. du Pont de Nemours and Co. (DD) $83.93 -0.00%
Merck & Co. Inc. (MRK) $64.60 0.00%
Coca-Cola Co. (KO) $45.54 0.04%
Pfizer Inc. (PFE) $36.00 0.11%
S&P 500 - Risers
Netflix Inc. (NFLX) $194.39 5.39%
Constellation Brands Inc. Class A (STZ) $209.25 4.01%
Biogen Inc (BIIB) $326.74 3.75%
L Brands Inc (LB) $42.79 3.46%
Dentsply International Inc. (XRAY) $58.98 3.09%
Paypal Holdings Inc (PYPL) $65.82 2.83%
Diamond Offshore Drilling Inc. (DO) $14.88 2.76%
BB&T Corp. (BBT) $47.62 2.70%
Red Hat Inc. (RHT) $115.53 2.47%
Urban Outfitters Inc. (URBN) $23.59 2.43%
S&P 500 - Fallers
Navient Corporation (NAVI) $12.60 -14.25%
Mallinckrodt Plc Ordinary Shares (MNK) $35.49 -4.98%
Celgene Corp. (CELG) $140.01 -4.44%
H&R Block Inc. (HRB) $24.68 -3.97%
Harley-Davidson Inc. (HOG) $46.86 -3.96%
Viacom Inc. Class B (VIAB) $27.30 -2.99%
Sempra Energy (SRE) $112.02 -2.22%
Snap On Inc. (SNA) $148.59 -1.88%
Endo International Plc (ENDP) $8.66 -1.81%
CBS Corp. (CBS) $58.90 -1.78%
Nasdaq 100 - Risers
Netflix Inc. (NFLX) $194.39 5.39%
Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd. - Ordinary Shares (NCLH) $58.41 4.34%
Biogen Inc (BIIB) $326.74 3.75%
Dentsply International Inc. (XRAY) $58.98 3.09%
Liberty Global plc Series C (LBTYK) $31.90 2.94%
Paypal Holdings Inc (PYPL) $65.82 2.83%
Liberty Global plc Series A (LBTYA) $33.00 2.80%
Mercadolibre Inc. (MELI) $270.23 2.43%
Marriott International - Class A (MAR) $111.27 2.25%
Autodesk Inc. (ADSK) $116.54 2.18%
Nasdaq 100 - Fallers
Celgene Corp. (CELG) $140.01 -4.44%
Viacom Inc. Class B (VIAB) $27.30 -2.99%
J.B. Hunt Transport Services Inc. (JBHT) $106.87 -1.65%
Ulta Salon, Cosmetics & Fragrance Inc. (ULTA) $220.63 -1.29%
KLA-Tencor Corp. (KLAC) $101.67 -1.29%
Lam Research Corp. (LRCX) $182.82 -1.19%
Hasbro Inc (HAS) $96.58 -1.13%
Mattel Inc. (MAT) $15.56 -1.02%
Discovery Communications Inc. Class C (DISCK) $20.37 -0.97%
Amgen Inc. (AMGN) $186.85 -0.92% |
| | Friday newspaper round-up: OBR, Brexit, Tory coup, energy cap, Tesco | | A severe revision to UK growth forecasts will drastically cut Phillip Hammond's wiggle-room in the upcoming Budget. A dramatic over-estimation of the UK's productivity levels over the past seven years by fiscal watchdog, the Office of Budget Responsibility (OBR), means the Chancellor of the Exchequer's room for spending could be reduced by as much as two-thirds. - Telegraph
The US is leading a group of countries challenging Britain's plans to retain EU import restrictions on agricultural goods after Brexit. The intervention threatens to scupper what the government had hoped would be one of the more straightforward aspects of Brexit: the technical process of re-establishing a standalone presence at the World Trade Organisation, the Geneva-based body that governs global trade. - The Times
Britain will refuse to tell Europe how much it is prepared to pay to settle the so-called "Brexit bill" when Brexit negotiations re-open in Brussels next week, the Telegraph can reveal, in a move that risks plunging the Brexit talks into fresh crisis. The British move comes as doubts emerged across Europe that Theresa May has the political clout to seal a Brexit deal following her disastrous party conference speech and public disagreements with Boris Johnson. - Telegraph
Theresa May came under further pressure on Thursday, with a group of rebel MPs seeking advice on a potential challenge from those involved in the last successful coup against a Tory leader and a former party chairman urging her to call a leadership election. The critics have been told by those who organised against Iain Duncan Smith in 2003 that "patience is key" if they hope to oust the prime minister after this week's accident-prone conference speech. - Guardian
A former Conservative Party chairman has admitted to helping lead dozens of rebel MPs in a plot to oust the prime minister. Grant Shapps was identified by Theresa May loyalists before a febrile weekend in which MPs will be canvassed by the mutinous group and by government whips over whether Mrs May should remain in post. He told The Times last night: "I think having lost an election the party must look for a new leader to take us forward."
Spain's prime minister threatened yesterday to introduce direct rule in Catalonia as the region's leaders pressed their demands for independence. In his first interview since Sunday's referendum on secession from Spain, Mariano Rajoy warned that Madrid could invoke a clause in the constitution suspending the region's autonomy if Carles Puigdemont, the Catalan leader, declared independence. - The Times
Energy industry figures have said it is virtually impossible for Theresa May's wide-ranging cap on energy bills to take effect this winter, as ministers suggested bills for some consumers could be capped within months. Draft legislation will be published next week to help the regulator Ofgem cap prices for the 12m households in England, Wales and Scotland on standard variable tariffs, the poor value deals that apply to the 70% of people not on special deals or whose special deals have ended. - The Guardian
The bosses of seven of the UK's largest wholesalers have come out fighting against Tesco's mooted £3.7bn takeover of Booker and called on the competition watchdog to block the deal outright. Their fiery opposition to the takeover, which they argue "threatens the survival of the independent retailer", comes just a day after Tesco boss Dave Lewis reasserted his confidence in the Booker takeover remaining on track. - Telegraph
Anglo-Dutch consumer group Unilever has invited private equity bidders to submit tentative offers for its $8bn (£6.1bn) by a deadline of Oct 19, according to two sources close to the matter. The sale of the business, which makes Flora and Stork margarines, officially kicked off in late September with Unilever's banks sending out confidential information to a series of heavyweight buyout funds which have been working on this deal since the start of the summer, the sources said. - Telegraph/Reuters
The Royal Navy could be stripped of its ability to attack enemy-held beaches under cost-cutting plans, it has been reported. The navy's two amphibious assault ships, HMS Albion and HMS Bulwark, could be taken out of service in a new round of cuts to the armed forces, the BBC's Newsnight said on Thursday. - Guardian/Press Association
The European Central Bank has signalled that it may keep its quantitative easing programme going until the end of next year in an attempt to reassure markets that stimulus will not be withdrawn rapidly and to cap any further strengthening of the euro. A decision on how to handle the tapering of its $60 billion-a-month QE programme is expected after the governing council's next meeting on October 26. The ECB is almost certain to start reducing its asset purchases from January. - The Times
Sky faces a potentially bruising annual meeting next week after shareholders were urged to vote against the reappointment of James Murdoch as chairman and "excessive" rewards for executives. The shareholder advisory services ISS, Pirc and Glass Lewis have concerns about Mr Murdoch's independence at Sky while it is the subject of an £11.7 billion bid by 21st Century Fox, where he is chief executive. - The Times
Ryanair boss Michael O'Leary has apologised to pilots, and offered them pay increases and improved job security to remain at the airline. The apology comes just days after it emerged that a letter was circulating among Ryanair's pilots encouraging support for an unofficial union to challenge the airline's working practices. - Telegraph
Mike Ashley's Sports Direct has closed almost half of its concessions in Debenhams stores but said that it was still "committed" to its partnership with the department store group. Britain's biggest sportswear retailer has shut four out of nine concessions, including two in Debenhams' main store on Oxford Street, London, a story first reported by Bloomberg. - The Times
A Dutch business services company has announced plans for what could be one of the largest City IPOs of the year, saying that it will move its headquarters to London from Amsterdam. TMF Group hopes to secure a valuation of about €1.4 billion when it lists on the London stock market next month in a deal that the private equity-backed company is using to raise €340 million to pay down debt. - The Times
An energy-to-metals group owned by one of Russia's richest men has announced plans for a London listing that could raise as much as $1.5 billion when it floats next month. En+ Group said yesterday that it would raise $1 billion for itself through a listing in Moscow and London, while its owner could raise a further $500 million from the sale of existing shares in what would mark the biggest Russian IPO since sanctions were imposed on the country three years ago. - The Times
Amazon is to push deeper into the parcel distribution business in America with a plan to increase its control over shipping by private sellers. Many private merchants who sell goods on Amazon's marketplace ship them directly from their warehouses to customers using distributors such as UPS and FedEx. - The Times
Donald Trump has accused Iran of not living up to the "spirit of the agreement" of its nuclear deal amid reports that he plans to withhold endorsement of the landmark agreement with the international community. At a meeting of military leaders, Trump warned cryptically that those present were witnessing "the calm before the storm". - Guardian
The youth media brand Vice, recently valued at $5.7bn (£4.3bn) by a private equity cash injection, has revealed a sharp increase in losses at its British arm as it counts the cost of a move into traditional television. Vice UK reported a pre-tax loss of £9.7m for 2016, compared with a loss of less than £300,000 in the prior year. - Telegraph
Nick D'Aloisio, the British tech wunderkind who sold his news app Summly to Yahoo for a reported $30 million when he was 17, has raised funding for a new start-up. Mr D'Aloisio, 21, who is studying for a philosophy and computer studies degree at the University of Oxford, achieved a valuation of about £11.8 million for his company Sphere Knowledge from a combined seed and Series A funding round, according to a filing at Companies House. - The Times
Amsterdam is banning new shops targeting tourists in the city's historic centre in the latest attempt to reclaim it for residents. The city government announced on Thursday that ticket shops, bike rental companies, cheese shops and other retailers or attractions catering mainly or exclusively for tourists would be prevented from opening in parts of the Centre district. - Guardian | | | | To advertise in the Euro Markets Bulletin please contact advertise@advfn.com |
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