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Oct 19, 2017

Evening Euro Markets Bulletin

 
ADVFN III Evening Euro Markets Bulletin
Daily world financial news Thursday, 19 October 2017 18:38:40
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The Top 10 Stocks for Q4

Our latest quarterly stocks report analyses the top and bottom 10 FTSE 100 performers of 2017 so far and looks at our Top Ten Stock Picks for Q4 including City broker consensus and their average target price for each stock. Losses can exceed deposits

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London Close: UK Stocks Fall With Sterling As Investors Mull Retail Sales

London stocks closed in the red on Thursday after disappointing UK retail sales data and with ongoing concerns about stalled Brexit negotiations.

The FTSE 100 was down 0.26% to 7,523.04, the first time below 7,500 in eight sessions, while the pound was down 0.53% against the euro to 1.1144 and 0.24% weaker versus the dollar at 1.3173.

European equities also closed lower on the day, with the DAX down 0.41% to 12,990.10, the CAC 40 0.29% lower to 5,368.29 and the IBEX 35 taking the biggest hit, falling 0.74% to 10,197.50.

"Equities are on the back foot following disappointing results eBay, Unilever and Nestle and reports of Apple cutting iPhone8 orders due to low demand," said analyst Mike van Dulken at Accendo Markets.

"At home, soft UK retail sales and the overhang from stalled Brexit negotiations have sent GBP lower. Above all though, the Spanish standoff has legs, the Catalan president continuing to threaten a declaration of independence while the Spanish PM says Madrid is closer to triggering article 155 to suspend the region's autonomy."

Released mid-morning, UK retail sales in September fell 0.8% month on month, which was worse than the 0.1% consensus forecast and the figure for August, which was revised to growth of 0.9%.

This further muddied the waters over whether the Bank of England will hike interest rates next month.

Excluding petrol sales, retail revenues were down 0.7% in September compared to a month earlier, versus a consensus estimate for a 0.2% decline and revised prior month's sales growth of 0.9%.

Analyst Laith Khalaf at Hargreaves Lansdown said the figures showed evidence of consumer belt tightening, with discretionary spending taking a particularly big hit, as shoppers prioritise more essential items as prices rise.

"This has given the pound a bit of a bloody nose on the currency markets, with investors scaling back their expectations of a rate rise from the Bank of England.

"Despite the drop in retail sales, it would be unwise to peg a consumer slowdown on one month’s figures alone, which can be affected by random events like the weather, or a big sporting event on the telly."

Investors were also digesting steady economic data out of China. According to the National Bureau of Statistics, third-quarter GDP growth was 6.8% compared to the same period a year ago, in line with expectations.

Meanwhile, September industrial production and retail sales from the People's Republic came in at 6.6% and 10.3% respectively, both beating expectations, while investment growth grew at its slowest rate in 18 years.

In corporate news, Unilever retreated as its sales growth fell short of expectations for the third quarter, with turnover negative, though the consumer goods colossus returned to volume growth after five quarters of price-driven expansion.

Advertising giant WPP, for which Unilever is a major client, was also underperforming, with disappointing numbers from French peer Publicis also weighing.

HSBC was another heavy weight on the Footsie as the Treasury ordered the Financial Conduct Authority and the Serious Fraud Office to investigate whether it and Standard Chartered were exposed to the corruption scandal in South Africa.

London Stock Exchange was in the red as it reported an 18% rise in third-quarter revenue and said chief executive officer Xavier Rolet will step down next year.

Property investment and development company Segro slipped despite saying it saw solid rental growth in the third quarter, while Schroders also lost some ground despite posting a 9% jump in assets under management and administration in the first nine months of the year.

Rentokil climbed after reporting a 13.7% rise in third-quarter ongoing revenue as the company’s pest control division performed well.

IWG, the company formerly known as Regus, took a battering after it warned that 2017 profit is now expected to be materially below market expectations and in a range of £160m to £170m. Peer Workspace Group was also dragged lower.

Homeserve edged lower after saying it plans to raise up to £125m to fund the acquisition of some of the trade and assets of the home assistance cover business of US-based Dominion.

NEX Group was hit by a downgrade to ‘underperform’ from ‘sector perform’ at at RBC Capital Markets, while BAE Systems and Intu were weaker as their shares were among those going ex-dividend.

On the upside, equipment rental company Ashtead was boosted by some well-received third-quarter earnings from US peer United Rentals.

Travis Perkins, the builders' merchant, rallied as it said it was on track to achieve full-year expectations despite a cautious outlook.

Marshalls was higher after announcing a bolt-on, earnings-enhancing acquisition.

Domino’s Pizza was slightly higher as it snapped up Germany's largest pizza chain Hallo Pizza into its local franchise joint venture.

N Brown was boosted by an upgrade from HSBC, while Softcat continued to prowl higher after strong results earlier in the week.

 


Barclays Vs Lloyds - Which is a better Buy?

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Market Movers

FTSE 100 (UKX) 7,523.04 -0.26%
FTSE 250 (MCX) 20,131.52 -0.63%
techMARK (TASX) 3,553.84 -0.10%

FTSE 100 - Risers

Smurfit Kappa Group (SKG) 2,240.00p 3.61%
Randgold Resources Ltd. (RRS) 7,490.00p 1.77%
Fresnillo (FRES) 1,418.00p 1.21%
RSA Insurance Group (RSA) 626.00p 1.21%
Merlin Entertainments (MERL) 375.00p 1.16%
BP (BP.) 492.15p 0.85%
CRH (CRH) 2,746.00p 0.84%
Glencore (GLEN) 377.60p 0.79%
Shire Plc (SHP) 3,748.50p 0.78%
Admiral Group (ADM) 1,908.00p 0.74%

FTSE 100 - Fallers

Unilever (ULVR) 4,299.00p -5.49%
WPP (WPP) 1,366.00p -2.98%
BAE Systems (BA.) 600.00p -2.52%
Smiths Group (SMIN) 1,537.00p -2.29%
Coca-Cola HBC AG (CDI) (CCH) 2,593.00p -2.04%
Carnival (CCL) 4,945.00p -1.88%
Kingfisher (KGF) 303.20p -1.81%
Convatec Group (CTEC) 212.80p -1.71%
easyJet (EZJ) 1,295.00p -1.67%
GKN (GKN) 302.10p -1.50%

FTSE 250 - Risers

Acacia Mining (ACA) 212.00p 16.16%
Brown (N.) Group (BWNG) 325.70p 5.30%
Marshalls (MSLH) 462.30p 4.79%
Softcat (SCT) 486.40p 4.49%
CLS Holdings (CLI) 219.10p 2.65%
Hochschild Mining (HOC) 232.80p 2.46%
Travis Perkins (TPK) 1,505.00p 2.24%
Rank Group (RNK) 234.50p 2.13%
Centamin (DI) (CEY) 144.20p 2.12%
Provident Financial (PFG) 891.00p 1.65%

FTSE 250 - Fallers

IWG (IWG) 216.30p -32.22%
Intu Properties (INTU) 221.90p -5.37%
Nex Group (NXG) 622.00p -5.18%
Mitie Group (MTO) 236.00p -4.53%
Pets at Home Group (PETS) 182.90p -3.94%
Capital & Counties Properties (CAPC) 264.00p -3.19%
Wood Group (John) (WG.) 692.50p -3.15%
Evraz (EVR) 316.40p -2.94%
Dixons Carphone (DC.) 184.10p -2.90%
Kier Group (KIE) 1,085.00p -2.69%


Europe Market Report
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Europe close: Stocks dip amid Spanish impasse, overbought conditions

A stronger euro despite the continuing political stand-off in Spain weighed on stocks across the continent.

To take note of, the selling pressure was taking place against a backdrop of considerable 'market chatter' concerning possibly stretched equity valuations, oversold readings on some benchmark indices and talk of the potential for a large correction due to secular changes in the structure of markets, which reminded some observers of conditions prior to the market crash of late 1987.

Against that backdrop, at the close the benchmark Stoxx 600 was down by 0.63% or 2.45 points to 389.11, while Germany's Dax was off by 0.41% or 52.93 points at 12,990.10, alongside a dip of 0.74% on Spain's Ibex 35 to 10,197.50.

"Black Monday vibes? European equities fell in lockstep at precisely the time we were due an update on Catalonia’s fight with Madrid over independence.

"It seemed there anxiety rose to a peak with sell orders flooding in as the deadline approached, triggering stops and further selling after it was reached. 
Broad based selling hit all the main European indices while the euro also lost ground and Spanish bond yields jumped as expected given the impasse," commented Neil Wilson at ETX Capital.

Nevertheless, the single currency was in fact higher against the greenback by the closing bell, tacking on 0.34% to 1.1831, while the yield on the benchmark 10-year Spanish government bond was little changed at 1.63%.

According to local reports Catalan officials continued to play 'cat and mouse' with authorities in Madrid. Significantly too, according to Barcelona-based daily La Vanguardia, on Wednesday evening the centrist nationalist PDECat party closed ranks behind regional president Carles Puigdemont's push for independence.

That was followed by a somewhat coy letter from Catalan president Carles Puigdemont on Thursday morning which appeared to shift the responsibility for declaring independence to the Catalan people, instead of himself.

For authorities in Madrid, Puigdemont's missive appeared to fall short of the clarity asked of him, although according to Madrid-based El Mundo the main political parties in Madrid had decided overnight to 'de facto' extend a third deadline to Puigdemont, as it would take several days to obtain approval from the Spanish Congress to apply Article 155, most likely between 27 October and 31 October.

More specifically, there were hopes that the Catalan leader would call early elections, which might could defuse tensions if done with the current legal framework of the country.

Nonetheless, analysts at Barclays Research cautioned that: " we expect volatility in the days and weeks ahead, and a key point to watch is whether a harder or a softer version of Article 155 is implemented, as the Article itself is very general and gives the central government some leeway to choose. This factor could therefore be a catalyst for a response by the more radical supporters of independence, with the potential to trigger demonstrations, clashes with the police and further escalation."

Meanwhile, in the corporate space, German battery-maker Varta began trading in Frankfurt following an IPO that saw its shares priced to go at €17.5, at the to end of the indicative range.

Pernod Ricard announced stronger-than-expected underlying sales for its first fiscal quarter of 5.7% thanks to strong demand in China and the US.

Carrefour on the other hand saw revenue growth slow over the three months to September, chiefly as a result of soft demand in France.


Hargreaves Lansdown

Top of the stocks

Number of Deals Bought

Place EPIC Equity name %
1 LLOY Lloyds Banking Group plc 13.16
2 BP. BP Plc 5.59
3 RDSB Royal Dutch Shell Plc B Shares 4.54
4 HSBA HSBC Holdings plc 2.77
5 LGEN Legal & General Group plc 2.33
6 BARC Barclays plc 2.18
7 SSE SSE plc 2.08
8 UKOG UK Oil & Gas Investments plc 1.63
9 DGE Diageo plc 1.38
10 SMT Scottish Mortgage Investment Trust 1.35

Number of Deals Sold

Place EPIC Equity name %
1 UKOG UK Oil & Gas Investments plc 3.19
2 JOG Jersey Oil & Gas plc 3.05
3 BOO Boohoo.com 2.06
4 GGP Greatland Gold Plc 1.73
5 PFG Provident Financial plc 1.71
6 LLOY Lloyds Banking Group plc 1.40
7 IQE IQE plc 1.16
8 BP. BP Plc 0.99
9 GLEN Glencore plc 0.89
10 FRR Frontera Resources Corp 0.84

Broker Tips

Broker tips: NEX Group, N Brown, Rio Tinto

NEX Group was under the cosh after RBC Capital Markets cut the stock to 'underperform' from 'sector perform'.

The bank said it was reducing its earnings per share forecasts by 13%/8%/7% in FY18/FY19/FY20 and lowering its price target to 600p from 650p.

"While NEX has a number of positives, we believe the shares continue to trade above their fair value despite an increasingly challenging outlook," it said.

Among the positives, it highlighted material earnings growth, positive gearing to increased volatility and higher rates, and event risk.

Nevertheless, it said the shares were trading above their value because NEX is a restructuring story that is running behind schedule. "We believe a second profit warning is possible (particularly given the NEX Optimisation CEO's recent departure) and a downgrade (or extension to FY21) of the FY20 financial 'aspirations' likely."


N Brown is starting to deliver on its transformation plan and after an undeserved pullback in the shares after this month's interim results, HSBC upgraded the shares to a 'buy' rating from 'hold'.

HSBC, which also upped its target price on the shares to 385p from 330p, noted the clothing retailer had delivered a sustained improvement in its key performance indicators over the last three years, and was beginning to add a recovery in earnings momentum.

First-half results added progress on product sales despite tougher comparatives and while the comparatives get tougher again in the second half, current trading was said to be in line with expectations and the group is "well prepared" for peak trading.

"We see potential in the short-to-medium term to extend recent market share gains via product and customer service-led initiatives including the addition of new third-party brands," said the bank.


Analysts at Investec reiterated their "preference" for shares of Rio Tinto among the diversified majors, despite the miner's "mixed" third quarter results.

The main arguments put forward to back up their case were the company's balance sheet, which as the strongest in the sector and its clear focus on shareholder returns.

As evidence of the latter, they pointed to the outfit's $2bn interim dividend and the $4bn of share buybacks unveiled thus far in 2017.

Linked to those buybacks, the analysts raised their estimates for the company's earnings per share in fiscal years 2017 and 2018 by 3.6%, on average.

 

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