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Oct 25, 2017

Evening Euro Markets Bulletin

 
ADVFN III Evening Euro Markets Bulletin
Daily world financial news Wednesday, 25 October 2017 18:08:00
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London Market Report
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London close: Footsie down as Sterling snaps back after firmer GDP reading

Stocks slumped as the pound rallied after a stronger-than-expected reading on GDP data which some believed that, at the margin, raised the likelihood of a rate hike by the Bank of England next week.

The FTSE 100 was down 1.05% to 7,447.21, with the pound up 0.88% against the dollar at 1.3250 and 0.50% firmer versus the euro at 1.1221.

Preliminary figures released by the Office for National Statistic earlier showed the UK economy grew slightly more than expected in the last quarter, possibly paving the way for the first rate hike from the Bank of England in over a decade.

Gross domestic product grew 0.4% in the third quarter of 2017, up from 0.3% in the first two quarters and ahead of the BoE's and the consensus forecast for the third.

Compared to the same quarter last year, UK GDP was 1.5% higher, which again was more than the 1.4% improvement economists had forecast.

While still a pretty subdued performance compared to other countries, an outturn over 0.3% was felt by economists as likely to be the final piece of data needed to seal an interest rate hike from 0.25% to 0.5% from the BoE's Monetary Policy Committee when it meets next week.

The dominant services sector increased by 0.4% for a second quarter, with a strong performance in computer programming, motor trades and retail trade.

A return to growth for manufacturing of 1.0% boosted the total, while construction contracted for the second quarter in a row, falling into recession with a 0.7% fall in output.

IG analyst Joshua Mahony said: "A more resilient UK economy helps enable the BoE to implement the Q4 rate hike many predict will come next month, with market expectations now standing at 87% that Carney & co will act. While BoE member Cunliffe tried his best to temper the already sky-high market expectations for next month's meeting, today's GDP figure served to reverse any doubts, with data speaking louder than words."

Investors were also digesting the latest mortgage approvals data from UK Finance, which showed banks approved 41,584 mortgages on a seasonally-adjusted basis last month, compared to 41,762 in August but up from a year ago.

In corporate news, British American Tobacco was in the black after saying it expects revenue from next generation products to double to over £1bn next year.

Shares of Lloyds Banking Group reversed earlier losses to trade a little higher. The stock had been on the back foot earlier as investors chose to focus more on loan impairments and rising consumer credit risk than solid income and profits growth up 8% to £4.62bn and 9% to £2.08bn respectively.

Drax dropped sharply after agreeing the sale of Billington Bioenergy, a distributor of wood pellets in the UK heating market.

Shares in the AA on the other hand jumped on reports that the company has demanded that former chairman Bob Mackenzie pay pack more than £1.2m in bonuses.

Challenger bank Virgin Money was also lower even as it said it is in talks to make former HSBC banker Irene Dorner its next chairman in a move that would assemble the first all-female leadership team at a major British bank.

Also on the downside, Metro Bank retreated after it reported a 77% jump in underlying pre-tax profit for the third quarter and announced that chief
financial officer Mike Brierley plans to retire next year

Fresnillo was weaker despite posting a rise in the production of silver and gold for the third quarter and saying it remains on course to achieve its output targets for 2017, while Antofagasta was in the red despite cutting cost forecast and reporting a rise in third-quarter copper production.

In broker note action, Whitbread was cut to 'equalweight' at Morgan Stanley, while Wizz Air was downgraded to 'hold' at Investec, but Lancashire was bumped up to 'equalweight' at Barclays.


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Market Movers

FTSE 100 (UKX) 7,447.21 -1.05%
FTSE 250 (MCX) 20,073.30 -0.20%
techMARK (TASX) 3,501.82 -0.76%

FTSE 100 - Risers

Kingfisher (KGF) 313.20p 2.72%
NMC Health (NMC) 2,935.00p 1.56%
Hargreaves Lansdown (HL.) 1,556.00p 1.43%
easyJet (EZJ) 1,306.00p 1.24%
Croda International (CRDA) 3,919.00p 1.19%
International Consolidated Airlines Group SA (CDI) (IAG) 667.50p 1.14%
Ashtead Group (AHT) 1,926.00p 1.05%
Sage Group (SGE) 736.00p 0.96%
Micro Focus International (MCRO) 2,533.00p 0.96%
Lloyds Banking Group (LLOY) 67.94p 0.80%

FTSE 100 - Fallers

GlaxoSmithKline (GSK) 1,429.00p -5.52%
Antofagasta (ANTO) 986.00p -4.36%
Standard Chartered (STAN) 759.60p -3.03%
BHP Billiton (BLT) 1,352.50p -2.91%
Severn Trent (SVT) 2,077.00p -2.76%
BT Group (BT.A) 265.05p -2.75%
SSE (SSE) 1,348.00p -2.67%
Rio Tinto (RIO) 3,496.50p -2.60%
Centrica (CNA) 167.90p -2.55%
Mediclinic International (MDC) 594.50p -2.46%

FTSE 250 - Risers

AA (AA.) 167.30p 4.63%
Card Factory (CARD) 320.00p 2.27%
Euromoney Institutional Investor (ERM) 1,143.00p 2.23%
Just Eat (JE.) 725.50p 2.11%
Lancashire Holdings Limited (LRE) 690.00p 2.07%
Elementis (ELM) 277.00p 1.99%
Dignity (DTY) 2,310.00p 1.94%
Domino's Pizza Group (DOM) 335.00p 1.82%
Rotork (ROR) 265.30p 1.64%
IMI (IMI) 1,249.00p 1.63%

FTSE 250 - Fallers

Evraz (EVR) 297.70p -6.32%
Investec (INVP) 523.50p -4.47%
Drax Group (DRX) 275.80p -3.90%
Hikma Pharmaceuticals (HIK) 1,114.00p -3.72%
Hochschild Mining (HOC) 221.10p -3.53%
Petrofac Ltd. (PFC) 406.60p -3.33%
Tullow Oil (TLW) 183.50p -3.06%
Pershing Square Holdings Ltd NPV (PSH) 1,004.00p -2.90%
Pennon Group (PNN) 772.50p -2.65%


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US Market Report

US open: Caterpillar, 3M results help Dow to new record

The Dow Jones Industrials Average is pushing further into record territory on the heels of a wave of better-than-expected corporate earnings updates.

At 1630 BST, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was standing 0.82% or 191.85 points higher at 23465.87, alongside a gain of 0.22% or 5.55 points for the S&P 500 to 2,570.53, while the Nasdaq Composite was adding 0.29% or 19.14 points to 6,605.97.

Stock in 3M, Caterpillar, GM and McDonald's were all putting on heavy gains after pleasing shareholders with their latest set of financials, with United Technologies one of the few exceptions, with its shares trading lower despite beating forecasts on the Street for its earnings per share.

From a sector standpoint, the best performance was being put in by the following industrial groups: Recreational products (4.70%), Aluminum (3.17%) and Leisure goods (2.16%).

The lone economic release on Tuesday was IHS Markit's manufacturing sector purchasing managers index for October, which printed at 54.5 - a 9-month high - following a reading of 53.1 for September.

In other asset classes, the yield on the benchmark 10-year US Treasury was stading fourbasis points higher at 2.41% and just off its highest mark since April.

Back on the corporate front, shares of industrial conglomerate 3M were rocketing after the firm beat analysts' forecasts for both profits and sales and bumped up its outlook for earnings.

GM was also standing higher despite reporting an enormous third quarter loss of $2.98bn or -$2.03 on a per share basis, versus $1.76 per share of profits a year ago. However, on an adjusted basis earnings per share came in at $1.32 (consensu: $1.11). Sales also fell by less than anticipated.

Shares of McDonalds were also wanted even after the fast food giant only managed to just meet analysts' estimates on both the top and bottom line.

Heavy equipment manufacturer Caterpillar was also on the up after the company said it was seeing stronger demand for its wares across many of its end markets.


Hargreaves Lansdown

Top of the stocks

Number of Deals Bought

Place EPIC Equity name %
1 UKOG UK Oil & Gas Investments plc 4.57
2 MERL Merlin Entertainments plc 4.07
3 GGP Greatland Gold Plc 3.86
4 IRV Interserve plc 1.93
5 CTEC ConvaTec Group Plc 1.67
6 VAST Vast Resources plc 1.66
7 SXX Sirius Minerals plc 1.64
8 ULVR Unilever plc 1.23
9 LLOY Lloyds Banking Group plc 1.22
10 SMT Scottish Mortgage Investment Trust 0.99

Number of Deals Sold

Place EPIC Equity name %
1 UKOG UK Oil & Gas Investments plc 3.75
2 GGP Greatland Gold Plc 3.17
3 LLOY Lloyds Banking Group plc 2.01
4 IRV Interserve plc 1.27
5 VAST Vast Resources plc 1.26
6 SXX Sirius Minerals plc 1.19
7 BOO Boohoo.com 1.11
8 IQE IQE plc 0.91
9 BP. BP Plc 0.84
10 BT.A BT Group plc 0.79

Broker Tips

Broker tips: Provident Financial, Hunting, RSA Insurance

Berenberg hiked its target for Provident Financial on Tuesday but stuck to a 'hold' recommendation on the shares, warning clients that it was impossible to anticipate the conclusion of the regulator's investigation into the door-step lender.

"We do not think it is possible to usefully forecast the conclusion of the FCA investigation, and it is this variable that will be the key driver of the stock price over the medium term, in our view. We therefore retain our Hold recommendation," analysts Donald Tait and Robert Chantry said in a research note sent to clients.

Furthermore, the broker explained how "the FCA has stated publically its commitment to helping potentially vulnerable borrowers and we think this may have further ramifications for earnings and returns."

The potential for increased regulatory capital requirements as a result of the investigation into Provident's repayment option plan was still a worry as well, potentially curtailing its ability to pay any redress fine.

On a more a positive note, the broker did expect the company home credit unit to recover, albeit not to the same size as before.

Analysts at Canaccord Genuity raised their target for Hunting's shares following the company's third quarter trading update.

The Canadian broker said it expected the "strong" levels of activity seen over the prior month to extend into October, adding that business was especially strong at the the oilfield services group's Titan unit.

Hence, Canaccord bumped up its full-year 2017 earnings per share estimate from a loss of -$0.03 to a profit of $0.01, with similar-sized upwards revisions made to its estimates for 2018 and 2019.

As a result, its target for the shares rose from 450p to 520p.

"Outside the guns business, activity in other US onshore drilling focussed businesses (Hunting Specialty) is also reporting strong results. Notably, there is also some strength in the rest of the business, albeit that demand is primarily for US activity [...] We continue to believe that the recovery in the oil industry is taking hold, and current oil prices suggest that there is likely more to go for," analyst Alex Brooks said in a research note sent to clients.

RSA Insurance got a boost on Tuesday as JPMorgan Cazenove upgraded the stock to 'overweight' from 'neutral' as it took a look at the UK non-life sector.

The bank said its clear top pick in the sector is overweight-rated Direct Line, closely followed by RSA and then Hastings. It noted that RSA has underperformed in recent months, meaning the valuation is now attractive.

"We believe the pricing backdrop in commercial lines may improve following recent natural catastrophe events, and with additional capital return likely to commence from FY18E, RSA's income credentials could be meaningfully improved."

With relatively less upside to its valuations, the bank downgraded Admiral to 'neutral' from 'overweight' and Esure to 'underweight' from 'neutral'.

It said Admiral's slower growth in the first half was due to a temporary competitive disadvantage and although this will be removed in January, it nevertheless could continue to weigh on growth in the second half. "With no obvious catalysts on the horizon, and only modest upside to our valuation, we move to neutral."

 

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