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| | London open: Stocks edge higher as US launches China tariffs |  | | FTSE 100 | Euronext | Dax perf | CAC 40 |  |  |  |  | | Please click on the images to view our interactive charts | | | London stocks shuffled higher on Friday morning as markets attempted to ignore the official kick-off of the trade war between the US and China, while not holding much hope for Theresa May's potentially decisive cabinet meeting over Brexit. The FTSE 100 added 16.08 points or 0.21% to 7,619.30, extending gains from the previous day's positive session as it followed the strongest Wall Street performance in more than a month. This despite the fact that tariffs on $34bn of Chinese imports were finally imposed by the US overnight, with China officially responding with the launch of its retaliatory measures on Friday at 12:01pm Beijing time. Chinese stock markets fell initially but finished in the green apart from B-share markets, which are those traded in foreign currencies. “China promised not to fire the first shot, but in order to safeguard the country’s core interests as well as that of the people, it is forced to fight back,” the Commerce Ministry said in a statement. With Friday's US measures expected to be followed by further tariffs on $16bn of Chinese goods in a few weeks, Beijing said this would shave 0.2 percentage points off of China’s GDP and the “overall impact would be limited”. The ministry called the US actions “a violation of world trade rules” and said that it had “initiated the largest-scale trade war in economic history.” That stock markets had reacted positively suggested this batch of US-China trade tariffs has already been priced in, said analyst Mike van Dulken at Accendo Markets. "Sentiment may be off its best, but even the threat of Trump going as far as $500bn in import duties to penalise China has failed to derail markets. Watch for headlines from China." Analyst Jasper Lawler at London Capital Group said he would have expected to see more anxiety in the markets. "Still, there was plenty to distract traders with hawkish Fed minutes and strong US economic data." Minutes released overnight from the FOMC’s June policy meeting showed policy makers acknowledging the negative risks of Washington’s current belligerent trade policy, pointing to the possibility for negative effects on investment and business sentiment. But despite those headwinds, policymakers still said there was broad support for “gradual” rate increases, saying that the benchmark federal funds rate could be at or beyond its neutral level “sometime next year”. US non-farm payrolls are due at 1330 BST. "Expectations are for 195k new jobs to have been created in June, a solid number after May’s impressive 223k," said Lawler. "Given the historically low levels of unemployment, which is expected to remain constant at 3.8% in June, a miss on the headline job creation number is not going to cause too much distress, whilst a surprise to the upside would highlight the strength of the US economy." UK data was limited to the Halifax housing survey, which showed house prices in the three months to June were down 0.7% on the preceding three months, and annual growth slowing to 1.8% from the 1.9% for May. On a monthly basis, prices rose by 0.3% in June to £225,654. House prices continue to remain broadly flat, said Halifax's managing director Russell Galley. “Activity levels, like house price growth, have softened compared with the final months of last year. Mortgage approvals have been in the low range of 63,000 to 67,000 since the start of the year, whilst home sales have remained flat so far this year." In company news, ITV topped the FTSE 100 leaderboard thanks to an upbeat note from Societe Generale, which upgraded its recommendation on the shares to 'buy' with a price target of 220p. Analysts said the shares look relatively cheap and noted ITV's potential as a takeover target in light of the takeover battle for Sky. Rubber glove maker Essentra acquired Sweden-based Nolato Hertila for a cash consideration of approximately SEK 58m (£4.9m), to expand its components division's product range. Ahead of an expected tense annual shareholder meeting, Stobart Group revealed that chief financial officer Richard Laycock has decided to step down. The shares were in the green however, with the Southend Airport owner saying it has started the new trading year trading "satisfactorily". Virgin Money and suitor CYBG were both higher after an announcement from Virgin Money the previous day that it had reached a capital agreement with the Prudential Regulation Authority on new models for its mortgage portfolio which will reduce the applicable risk weighting. With an estimated increase in its core tier 1 ratio to around 16% as of 30 June from 13.8% at the end of December, analysts said this freed up approximately £200m of core tier 1 capital. Shares in Inmarsat fell as US rival EchoStar Corporation revealed that the UK satellite company had earlier this week rejected a 532p-per share takeover offer. EchoStar said that it was continuing talks to try and agree a deal. BCA Marketplace fell as it revealed that private equity group Apax had walked away after the operator of WeBuyAnyCar.com rejected two takeover proposals. Rolls-Royce was also lower as it agreed to sell its commercial marine business to Norway's Kongsberg for net proceeds of around £350m to £400m. |
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| | Europe open: Stocks pare early gains, Deutsche Bank finds a bid |  | | FTSE 100 | Euronext | Dax perf | CAC 40 |  | | | | | | Stockmarkets across the Continent are paring their initial gains after Beijing said it had begun retaliating for Washington's decision overnight to impose tariffs on its exports with its own levies. Chinese officials had initially kept mum, prompting some analysts to wonder aloud if the Asian giant might be doing so on purpose, in order to signal some restraint. That line of reasoning was soon cut short by the foreign ministry in Beijing, with spokesman Lu Kang announcing shortly after the London open that countermeasures had gone into effect after the American measures had come into force. In reaction, some of the sectors which had recently been performing best, such as Autos&Parts and Banks fell back, with some of the more defensive areas of the market such as personal household goods taking the lead. As of 0855 BST, the benchmark Stoxx 600 was still higher by 0.19% or 0.73 points to 382.23, while the German Dax was off by 0.02% or 3.44 points to 12,460.20. The Cac-40 on the other hand was holding onto gains of 0.26% or 13.88 points to 5,380.20. Euro/dollar meanwhile was little changed, edging up by 0.15% to 1.17089. Earlier, China's commerce ministry had issued a statement, saying: "The United States has violated World Trade Organization rules and ignited the largest trade war in economic history. "Such tariffs are typical trade bullying, and this action threatens global supply chains and value chains, stalls the global economic recovery, triggers global market turmoil, and will hurt more innocent multinational companies, enterprises and consumers." However, the Commerce ministry did not specify what amount of goods would be hit by Beijing's tariffs. In the background, Wall Street clocked in with strong gains overnight after the latest set of US central bank meeting minutes left the impression with traders that the Federal Reserve was not yet contemplating upping the ante on the pace of rate hikes. Weighing in on the Fed's decision, Ian Shepherdson at Pantheon Macroeconomics, who is typically on the more hawkish side of the spectrum of analysts' opinions, broadly agreed with that view. "Overall, though, these minutes don't give the impression that a clear majority is ready now to abandon the idea that the risk are "roughly balanced" or that "gradual" rate hikes are no longer enough. "That day is coming, but likely not until December, by which time we think unemployment will be 3.5% or less, wage growth will have picked up appreciably, and, we hope, trade policy will be more rational." As expected, German industrial production bounded ahead in May, the Federal Office of Statistics said, increasing at a month-on-month clip of 2.6%, dwarfing estimates for a rise of 0.3%. However, French data released soon afterwards revealed the country's trade deficit widened from the -€5.2bn seen in April to -€6.0bn for May (consensus: -€5.2bn). Exports were especially weak, falling by 2.0% pace versus the prior month. On the corporate front, there are reports that JP Morgan and ICBC may be weighing taking a stake in Deutsche Bank. |
| | US close: Markets finish positive as sentiment improves, tech stocks soar | | Wall Street finished in the green on Thursday, after a rally led by technology stocks and as investors digested a possible easing of tensions between Washington and Brussels, as well as the minutes from June’s Federal Reserve meeting. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was ahead 0.75% at 24,356.74, the S&P 500 added 0.86% to 2,736.61, and the Nasdaq 100 was 1.23% higher at 7,101.05. “The US open did little to disrupt trading on Thursday, the Dow Jones easing itself back in after Wednesday's 4th July celebrations,” said SpreadEx financial analyst Connor Campbell earlier. Minutes from the FOMC’s June policy meeting were released at 1900 BST, with policy makers acknowledging the negative risks of Washington’s current belligerent trade policy, pointing to the possibility for negative effects on investment and business sentiment. But despite those headwinds, policymakers still said there wa broad support for “gradual” rate increases, saying that the benchmark federal funds rate could be at or beyond its neutral level “sometime next year”. Earlier in the day, the US had instructed its ambassador in Germany to try and broker a solution between Berlin and Brussels on auto sector tariffs, according to German daily Handelsblatt. On the economic side of things, initial jobless claims rose by 3,000 during the week ending on 30 June to reach 231,000, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, although they remained near multi-decade lows and consultancy ADP reported that non-farm private sector payrolls grew by 177,000 in June, short of forecasts for a 190,000 gain. The US services sector expanded at a faster pace in June as the non-manufacturing index rose to 59.1 from 58.6 in May, the Institute for Supply Management reported Thursday. In corporate news, chip-maker Micron Technology gained 2.64% following an announcement that its fourth quarter sales had been hit after its Chinese subsidiaries were slapped with a preliminary injunction by a Chinese court linked to patent infringement disputes. Facebook stocks rose 2.97% after analysts at BTIG hiked the social media giant's price target to $275. TiVo shares lost 3.97% after announcing that chief executive Enrique Rodriguez had resigned less than six months after assuming the role, while Aegean Marine Petroleum's stock soared 222.22% after the firm reached a $1bn refinancing deal and potential strategic partnership. |
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| | Friday newspaper round-up: Trade war, Brexit meeting, airlines, business rates | | A long-threatened trade war between the US and China got underway on Friday as the US imposed tariffs on $34bn in Chinese goods. China has promised to levy its own tariffs immediately after on a similar quantity of US imports. Minutes after the US tariffs went into effect at 12:01 Friday US time (0401 GMT), a spokesperson for China’s ministry of commerce said, “China promised not to fire the first shot, but in order to safeguard the country’s core interests as well as that of the people, it is forced to fight back”. - Guardian In an attempt to persuade the Trump administration to step back, Beijing officials said yesterday that $20 billion of Chinese products set to be targeted by the US are made by foreign companies. Although China’s $375.6 billion goods trade surplus over America has underpinned tensions between the countries, Mr Trump has alleged that China steals intellectual property, which China denies. - The Times Theresa May faces the worst rebellion of her leadership today as cabinet Brexiteers attempt to force her to push for a harder exit from the European Union than she is planning. Last night seven cabinet Brexiteers held closed talks at the Foreign Office to discuss their strategy before today’s meeting at Chequers, at which Mrs May hoped to persuade the whole cabinet to sign off on her Brexit plans. - The Times European and British aerospace officials must begin talks immediately if tens of thousands of planes are to continue flying next March, Brexit negotiators have been warned. Aircraft with British-made parts such as Rolls-Royce engines and Airbus wings could be grounded if Britain leaves the European Union without a deal, according to industry leaders. - The Times Business rates are hitting the high street too hard, the Chancellor Philip Hammond has admitted. These taxes are calculated based on the cost of a property that a business occupies and, with prime locations, high street retailers have been hit hard compared to their online competitors. Many are already struggling, with mounting numbers of store closures. - Telegraph Ten professional sports clubs, the Odeon cinema chain and the Navy, Army and Air Force Institute (Naafi) have been named and shamed by the government as being among more than 200 employers that have failed to pay workers the national minimum wage. About 22,400 UK workers were owed back pay worth £1.44m as a result of the underpayments - a record number of people found by HM Revenue & Customs to have fallen victim to illegally low pay. - Guardian Sir Martin Sorrell is on the verge of beating his former employer WPP in the race to secure one of Europe’s most coveted digital advertising agencies. Sir Martin flew to Amsterdam yesterday for advanced talks with Media Monks, a Dutch company that makes online campaigns. It is understood that his new venture, S4 Capital, is the frontrunner in the auction and a deal could be struck within days, according to industry sources. The price is expected to be about €300 million and could be revealed as soon as Monday morning. - The Times Household energy bills are likely to rise as a result of uncertainty over whether Britain will remain in Europe’s carbon trading scheme after Brexit, the industry body has claimed. Clarity over policies affecting the energy industry once Britain leaves the EU is “desperately” needed and opacity is affecting the sector, Lawrence Slade, chief executive of Energy UK, said. - The Times The strongest growth in so-called "City jobs" has recently come from outside London, a banking lobby group has found. The North West (14pc) and East (7pc) of England saw the biggest expansion in finance sector jobs, along with Scotland (7pc), according to 2016 data. - Telegraph The number of buy-to-let deals available for first-time landlords has reached a record high, despite recent tax and regulatory upheaval. There were 1,268 such loans on the market at the beginning of July, a 13pc increase from 1,123 in January, according to financial researchers Moneyfacts. A year ago there were 1,034 loans available. Charlotte Nelson of Moneyfacts said the rise was likely to have been caused by lenders competing for new business. - Telegraph | | | | To advertise in the Euro Markets Bulletin please contact advertise@advfn.com |
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