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Jul 30, 2018

Morning Euro Markets Bulletin

 
ADVFN  Morning Euro Markets Bulletin
Daily world financial news Monday, 30 July 2018 11:00:29
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London open: Stocks dip with central banks in focus
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Stocks are trading slightly lower at the start of the week, with all eyes on foreign central banks and ongoing trade negotiations around the world ahead of a keenly awaited policy announcement from the Bank of England later in the week.

"Investor sentiment is perhaps hampered by the prospect of three major interest rate policy decisions this week; Bank of Japan (Tue, 4am, rate expected unchanged, but stimulus policy could be tweaked), Fed (Weds, 7pm, no change expected) and the Bank of England (Thurs, 12pm, rate hike expected)," said Mike van Dulken and Artjom Hatsaturjants at Accendo Markets.

Overnight, the Bank of Japan stepped-in for the third time in just over week in order to keep the yield on the country's 10-year government bonds under 0.10%, offering to purchase an unlimited amount of them at that level.

Speculation on the part of traders that the Bank of Japan might announce a shift in its policy the next day was behind the recent upwards pressure on bond yields around the world, which in turn had been weighing on share prices.

Against that backdrop, the FTSE 100 was down 0.21% or 15.68 points to 7,685.31 as of 0916 BST on Monday, weighed down by the phalanx of blue chip miners amid lower copper prices, led by Anglo American and Rio Tinto. Three-month LME copper futures were off by 1.48% to $6,203.50 per metric tonne.

Looking ahead to the BoE announcement on Thursday, the consensus among economists was for a 25 basis point hike in Bank Rate, to 0.75%. UK bank shares were higher, led by Barclays and RBS.

However, by and large, markets appeared to be quite sceptical that another rate hike would follow before the end of 2019, with the uncertainty around Brexit a key factor.

According to analysts at ING, "after August, markets are barely pricing in another rate hike before the end of 2019. We suspect policymakers would prefer investors to expect an earlier move, however realistically we think the Bank will struggle to hike rates again for quite some time.

"As long as Brexit talks remain in deadlock (specifically over the Irish backstop), talk of 'no deal’ will only increase. If this starts to hit sentiment, it would complicate efforts to tighten policy further."

Analysts at Jefferies were in a similar frame of mind, saying: "It remains an open question when the UK will see a 1.5% Bank Rate again. But, there are parallels with the ECB, where going forwards there will be more focus on 2020, after both Mark Carney & Mario Draghi have moved on."

On that note, in an interview with Bloomberg published on Monday, Governor Mark Carney said he had spent a fair amount of time on contingency planning for Brexit and that now it certainly does crowd-out other factors, adding that it was taking up nearly half his time.

Also in the headlines, at the weekend Italian far-right deputy prime minister, Matteo Salvini, told The Sunday Times that his government would back the UK in its trade talks, urging Westminster to take a tougher stance in its negotiations with Brussels.

The UK also received a dose of support from China, with new foreign minister Jeremy Hunt saying on Monday that Beijing had offered to start discussions on a free trade deal with Britain.

Consumer credit and mortgage lending figures for June were set for release at 0930 GMT.

Foxtons scraps dividend, Ibstocks warns

Shares in Foxtons were moving higher despite swinging to a loss for the first half on the back of a 9.5% drop in sales, which forced it to scrap its dividend. Nevertheless, the latter may be a bit of a 'non-event', said Mike van Dulken at Accendo Markets, given how the shares were barely yielding 1% even after plummeting 44% from their April highs.

The real estate agent also said renting was showing some momentum and announced a review of its cost base, although overall sales were subdued.

Brick and tile-maker Ibstock meanwhile followed-up on what Accendo termed a "disappointing" AGM in May with a profit warning, telling shareholders that slow production had extended into July. Making matters worse, increased maintenance would be needed over the next twelve months.

Aerospace and automobile engineering group Senior bumped up its interim dividend payout by 6.8% to 2.19p, telling shareholders that trading was ahead of expectations over the six months ending on 30 June, with higher margins seen in both of its main divisions, Aerospace and Flexonics. Profits before tax were 20% higher at £39.0m (Numis: £37.0m). Free cash flow also improved, the company said, rising 9% to £32.2m, even as the firm cut net debt by £33.0m to £148.8m.

Insurer Hiscox was higher as its first-half profit before tax came out 7% ahead of consensus, driven by stronger underwriting, boosted by reserve releases.

Shares in Ladbrokes owner GVC Holdings were boosted by its new 50-50 joint venture with Las Vegas casino giant MGM Resorts International to capitalise on the new sports betting laws in the US. The pair will invest $100m apiece into the JV and said its formation would significantly increase the speed to market for both parties, lower execution risk and create "meaningful early mover advantages", getting up and running before the start of the upcoming NFL season.

CYBG confirmed that trading in the three months to 30 June was in line with its expectations on Monday, with year-to-date mortgage growth of 3.8% on an annualised basis after its third quarter to £24.2bn. The FTSE 250 firm said that as previously guided, it saw reduced mortgage drawdowns in the third quarter due to lower applications in the second quarter, with full-year mortgage growth expected to be at the lower end of its guidance range, as previously indicated. It said the all-share offer for Virgin Money was continuing to progress as planned.

Indivior erased early losses as it revealed that lawyers will be able to begin arguing the drug developer's case against Dr Reddy Laboratories in October, after the US appeals court agreed to speed up the process. Dr Reddy's is appealing after it was prevented from selling its generic version of Indivior's Suboxone Film, a treatment for opioid addiction.

Grocer Morrisons was higher after an upgrade from UBS, which moved to 'buy' from 'neutral' and upped its target prices to 300p from 225p.


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Market Status
 
 
change pct
-0.25%
 
cur price
7,681.90
 
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-19.41
 
 
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-0.10%
 
cur price
20,848.14
 
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-20.80
 
 
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-0.24%
 
cur price
3,581.47
 
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# NameChange PctChangeCur Price
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# NameChange PctChangeCur Price
1Old Mutual-100.00%-210.90-
2Worldpay Group-100.00%-435.40-
3GKN Plc-100.00%-482.40-
4Sage Group-1.89%-12.20633.80
5Relx Group-1.21%-20.501,670.00
6Rolls-Royce Holdings-1.19%-11.80982.20
7Diageo-1.18%-33.502,802.50
8Intertek Group-1.17%-70.005,918.00
9BT Group-1.17%-2.75233.25
10London Stock Exchange-1.07%-48.004,444.00

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US open: Mixed trading at the bell as GDP figures do little to sway investors

Wall Sreet trading began on a mixed note at the open on Friday as investors cheered solid earnings from Amazon and eyed the release of the latest gross domestic product figures.

As of 1540 BST, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was 0.09% higher at 25,549.87, while the S&P 500 was down 0.07% to 2,835.36 and the Nasdaq was trading 0.23% weaker at 7,833.66.

Connor Campbell, a financial analyst at SpreadEx, said, "The Dow Jones opened around 0.1% higher, tickling 25,550, while the dollar shed 0.1% against both the euro and the pound."

In corporate news, Amazon rose 2.29% at the open after reporting a record profit of $2.5bn for the second quarter thanks to a solid performance from its non-retail divisions.

CMC Markets analyst Michael Hewson said: "Last night's Amazon numbers have tempered some of the pessimism behind the disappointments from Facebook and Netflix's recent numbers. Amazon beat expectations on profit and should see yesterday's 3% decline in the share price reversed when it reopens later today."

Intel Corp dropped 8.02% despite the chip giant's quarterly revenue and earnings beat expectations, while Starbucks shares ticked ahead 0.76% after its mostly in-line numbers late on Thursday.

Twitter tumbled 16.51%, wiping roughly $5bn off its market value and marking the second day in a row the Nasdaq had been dragged down by a social media stock, after the firm revealed it had lost 1m losers in its last quarter.

Chevron shares ticked ahead 0.31% despite missing on earnings and revenues, while Exxon Mobil fell 3% after the oil major reported a big miss on earnings.

Aside from earnings, the advance GDP reading for the second quarter was a big focus.

US economic growth accelerated to an annual rate of 4.1% during the second quarter, compared with a revised 2.2% in the first quarter, the Commerce Department said on Friday.

The second quarter gain, the fastest rate of growth in almost four years, fell just short of the 4.2% rate predicted by economists.

The trade sector boosted GDP, however, this was offset by a downturn in inventory investment.

Real final sales for domestic purchasers, excluding trade and inventories, rose 3.9% after a 1.9% gain in the prior quarter.

"Coming in at 4.1% at the annualised rate, America's second-quarter growth figure was actually a smidge below the forecast 4.2%. Not that it matters too much; it's still the best reading since the 5.2% posted in Q3 2014," said Campbell.

Trump said on Thursday that the figures will be "terrific" and that he would be happy with US economic growth of around 4% or more.

"Somebody actually predicted today, 5.3. I don't think that's going to happen - 5.3. If it has a 4 in front of it, we're happy. If it has like a 3 but it's a 3.8, 3.9, 3.7, we're OK," the president said in a speech about trade in Illinois.

On the other hand, consumer sentiment fell in July, according to the University of Michigan.

The index fell to 97.9 from 98.2, as both the assessment of current economic conditions and expectations fell.

However, the reading did beat consensus expectations of a 97.3 reading.

"Despite the expectation of higher inflation and higher interest rates during the year ahead, consumers have kept their confidence at high levels due to favorable job and income prospects," the University of Michigan said.


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