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Feb 8, 2018

Evening Euro Markets Bulletin

 
ADVFN III Evening Euro Markets Bulletin
Daily world financial news Thursday, 08 February 2018 20:23:07
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London close: FTSE flops after hawkish Bank of England statement

London's FTSE 100 fell almost 1.5% on Thursday as the pound spiked higher after the Bank of England signalled that interest rates may rise sooner and higher than it had indicated.

The BoE voted unanimously to leave interest rates on hold at 0.50% and the asset purchase facility at £435bn. Rates had been expected to remain on hold, but there had been some speculation that one or two policymakers would vote in favour of a hike.

The pound shot higher, spiking up more than 0.8% against the dollar and the euro before easing off to $1.394 and €1.1375 as the Bank's monetary policy committee also upped its forecasts for economic growth and said that interest rates may need to rise earlier and faster than previously forecast. It also said it expects stronger wage growth than previously and that inflation is still forecast to be above the 2% target in three years' time.

According to the minutes of the last meeting, the MPC agreed that "monetary policy would need to be tightened somewhat earlier and by a somewhat greater degree over the forecast period than anticipated at the time of the November report".

The BoE expects the economy to expand by 1.8% in 2018 and 2019 – up from earlier estimates of 1.6% and 1.7% respectively and faster than the "speed limit" of about 1.5% Governor Mark Carney unveiled in November. If the economy grows faster than that pace it is at risk of overheating, the BoE has said.

As sterling gained, London's equities took another leg lower, losing almost 109 points or 1.49% to close at 7,170.69. A stronger pound tends to dent the top-flight index as its constituents derive around 70% of their earnings from overseas.

Analysts at BofA Merrill Lynch said they now expect a 25 basis-point hike in interest rate in May but then February 2019 for the next hike, though this was highly conditional: "If Brexit transition talks drag past March or PMIs just remain where they are we will have reconsider."

They added: "Be careful on timing. While we assume May is the most likely date for the next hike we would not go over-the-top on the BoE's hawkishness. Mark Carney kept his options open over timing. As he said 'the words are different from September'. That is worth emphasising. The BoE are keeping some optionality in a way they did not last year."

UBS rates strategists agreed that Carney was handing responsibility over to Theresa May and Brexit minister David Davis as negotiations continue on a Brexit transition deal: "The MPC has, in our opinion, effectively left it to the politicians (and of course the data) to determine the near-term course of monetary policy. Our view is that the MPC will raise Bank Rate in May if the transitional deal has been fully tied up by then, but will keep policy on hold if the negotiations over the UK's terms of engagement with the EU after the end of March 2019 are ongoing."

With the MPC inflation report showing forecasts for CPI inflation should ease to 2.2% in two years’ time, given a smooth transition, this suggests markets may not have gone far enough, a more hawkish Capital Economics argued. "As a result, today’s releases pave the way for an interest rate hike in May, and we think that the MPC will hike a further two times this year, taking Bank Rate to 1.25%."

COMPANY NEWS

Due to concerns over interest rates, housebuilders were on the slide, led by PersimmonBerkeley GroupBarratt Developments and Taylor Wimpey. Analyst David Madden at CMC Markets said traders were now pricing in a 100% probability of an interest rate rise from the BoE in August, and so UK home builders were feeling the pinch ahead of a rise in mortgage costs.

Mid-cap builder Bellway declined despite saying that housing revenue for the six months to the end of January 2018 is expected to rise to around £1.3bn from £1.1bn in the same period a year ago amid strong demand.

Heavily-weighted miners fell as copper prices declined, with BHP BillitonAntofagastaRio TintoGlencore and Anglo American all in the red. There were also calls from a South Africa mines minister for local mining industry to "shape up" and speed the transformation towards more black ownership.

The biggest faller was Sophos as the cyber security solutions provider saw its shares tumble more than 17% after reporting a 19.6% drop in adjusted operating profit for the third quarter. Billings rose 14% in the three months to the end of December, down from a growth rate of 23% in the first half.

TalkTalk also tanked almost 10% after the telecoms group revealed plans to raise £200m to bolster its balance sheet and warned that full-year EBITDA would come in below the guidance given in November.

Thomas Cook was in the red after it said it remained on track to meet full-year forecasts but warned that the market remains highly competitive.

Qinetiq fell after saying it traded as expected in the third quarter and maintaining its expectations for its overall performance in FY18, while Tate & Lyle lost ground despite saying that it's on track to deliver full-year adjusted pre-tax profit in line with guidance at constant currency.

Ashmore was weaker as it posted a drop in half-year profit but a rise in assets under management, while hotel group Millennium & Copthorne lost ground after it reported a jump in fourth-quarter pre-tax profit but cut its dividend to preserve cash for investment.

Roadside assistance and insurance group AA reversed earlier strong gains after saying full-year trading EBITDA is expected to come in at £390m to £395m, in line with the guidance provided in September.

On the upside, Compass was heading north after the contract caterer served up a tasty first quarter update showing improved revenue growth. Although UK cost pressures were "above average", margins are still expected to improve over the year as a whole.

Advertising giant WPP rose as 2017 earnings from French rival Publicis met analysts' expectations and the company said organic growth improved throughout 2017.

Beazley was up as its full-year pre-tax profit came in slightly ahead of consensus expectations and it lifted its premium income growth guidance from mid-to-high single digit to double digit.

GlaxoSmithKline advanced its ViiV Healthcare HIV venture filed patent infringement litigation against Gilead Sciences over bictegravir in the United States and Canada.

Smith & Nephew edged higher after it reported a 17% rise in annual profit as the medical products company sold more knee implants and grew strongly in emerging markets.

 

Market Movers

FTSE 100 (UKX) 7,162.47 -1.61%
FTSE 250 (MCX) 19,327.69 -1.85%
techMARK (TASX) 3,254.65 -1.13%

FTSE 100 - Risers

Compass Group (CPG) 1,513.50p 5.32%
WPP (WPP) 1,303.75p 3.35%
Just Eat (JE.) 803.60p 2.06%
Sainsbury (J) (SBRY) 246.20p 1.65%
GlaxoSmithKline (GSK) 1,303.80p 1.43%
AstraZeneca (AZN) 4,845.00p 1.16%
Royal Bank of Scotland Group (RBS) 283.60p 1.03%
Barclays (BARC) 194.10p 0.47%
Marks & Spencer Group (MKS) 289.70p 0.38%
Lloyds Banking Group (LLOY) 67.60p 0.36%

FTSE 100 - Fallers

Evraz (EVR) 336.20p -5.27%
Ashtead Group (AHT) 1,955.00p -4.91%
Sage Group (SGE) 682.00p -4.48%
DCC (DCC) 6,760.00p -4.45%
Persimmon (PSN) 2,391.00p -4.36%
Berkeley Group Holdings (The) (BKG) 3,736.00p -4.21%
Barratt Developments (BDEV) 548.20p -4.19%
International Consolidated Airlines Group SA (CDI) (IAG) 596.60p -3.96%
Taylor Wimpey (TW.) 182.40p -3.95%
Scottish Mortgage Inv Trust (SMT) 432.72p -3.84%

FTSE 250 - Risers

Beazley (BEZ) 560.50p 5.46%
Dignity (DTY) 785.50p 4.94%
Stobart Group Ltd. (STOB) 251.50p 4.36%
Hiscox Limited (DI) (HSX) 1,372.00p 2.16%
Fidessa Group (FDSA) 2,295.00p 2.00%
Ted Baker (TED) 3,054.00p 1.80%
Babcock International Group (BAB) 643.60p 1.77%
Essentra (ESNT) 485.60p 1.63%
Lancashire Holdings Limited (LRE) 660.00p 1.62%
Computacenter (CCC) 1,152.00p 1.59%

FTSE 250 - Fallers

Sophos Group (SOPH) 513.00p -17.46%
TalkTalk Telecom Group (TALK) 108.00p -9.77%
Petrofac Ltd. (PFC) 416.80p -8.58%
Tate & Lyle (TATE) 602.20p -7.84%
AA (AA.) 125.10p -6.19%
Bellway (BWY) 3,110.00p -6.13%
Redrow (RDW) 588.50p -5.92%
Sanne Group (SNN) 621.00p -5.62%
Fidelity China Special Situations (FCSS) 228.50p -5.58%
Man Group (EMG) 189.80p -5.57%


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Europe Market Report
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Europe close: Vstoxx surges, bonds gyrate after MPC surprise

Stocks finished at their lows of the session amid steep selling in government bonds around the world stoked by a hawkish sounding Monetary Policy Committee, amid a noticeable pick-up in a key gauge of stockmarket volatility on the Continent.

Commenting on the content of Governor Mark Carney's press conference earlier, Andrew Goodwin, lead UK economist at Oxford Economics, said: "It is clear that, absent a downside shock, the MPC is now set on a path of steady policy normalisation to the extent that, even though we expect inflation to slow more markedly than the Bank expects this year, we now think that the Committee will hike again in November."

Against that backdrop, by the closing bell the benchmark Stoxx 600 had shed 1.60% or 6.10 points to 374.03, alongside a fall of 2.62% or 330.14 points for the German Dax to 12,260.29 and a 2.26% or 519.58 drop on the FTSE Mibtel to 22,466.60.

Volatility on the Euro Stoxx 50 was notably higher, with the VStoxx gauge rocketing 50.24% to 32.10.

In parallel, the yield on the 10-year German bund was two basis points higher to 0.76%, well off the session's high water mark of 0.81%.

Tracking movements in Bund yields, euro/dollar reversed course, drifting down 0.16% to 1.2238.

Stateside, yields on 10-year Treasuries had turned lower, following earlier gains.

To take note of, overnight US Senate leaders reached agreement on a two-year bipartisan spending bill, with the House of Representatives due to vote on it on Thursday.

However, after the close of trading in Frankfurt some reported were indicating that it might have hit a snag.

Elsewhere on the economic front, and central bank speakers aside, Spain's industrial production jumped by 0.9% on the month in December (consensus: -0.2%), INE said.

Meanwhile, in Germany, the Ministry of Finance reported a drop in the country's seasonally adjusted trade surplus from €22.3bn in November to €21.5bn for December (consensus: €22.3bn) as imports jumped by 1.4% versus the month before.

On the corporate side of things, Denmark's TDC was catapulted aloft by news of an unsolicited takeover bid from three pension funds and Macquarie.

Elsewhere, Brazilian competition authorities gave Bayer the 'all clear' to proceed with the acquisition of US rival Monsanto.

Germany's Commerzbank said it was aiming to return to a dividend payout in the current year and posted modestly better-than-expected fourth quarter revenues of €2.19bn, yet the shares went down in a bout of late selling.

Stronger-than-expected earnings were behind a rise in Pernod Ricard shares after the spirits-maker reported stronger demand from China and India as well as at its travel retail division.

Going the other way, Airbus stock was still moving lower after disclosing it may incur in additional write-offs linked to its trouble-prone A400M military cargo aircraft.


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Cryptocurrencies Report

Top Cryptocurrencies

# Name Market Cap($) Price(%) Change Price Graph(3m)
1 Bitcoin (BTC) 140,863,872,071 8,396.5 +11.43%
2 Ethereum (ETH) 79,557,148,488 815.01 +8.86%
3 Ripple (XRP) 29,918,430,161 0.7562 +6.51%
4 Bitcoin Cash / BCC (BCH) 21,725,948,047 1,304.8 +37.83%
5 Cardano (ADA) 9,115,983,928 0.344944 +4.21%
6 Litecoin (LTC) 8,158,421,291 148.54 +8.17%

Hargreaves Lansdown

Top of the stocks

Number of Deals Bought

Place EPIC Equity name %
1 CPI Capita plc 4.84
2 SMT Scottish Mortgage Investment Trust 2.07
3 RDSB Royal Dutch Shell Plc B Shares 1.35
4 LLOY Lloyds Banking Group plc 1.33
5 SXX Sirius Minerals plc 1.16
6 Amazon.com Inc. 1.16
7 IQE IQE plc 1.13
8 VOD Vodafone Group plc 1.11
9 BP. BP Plc 0.97
10 GSK GlaxoSmithKline plc 0.92

Number of Deals Sold

Place EPIC Equity name %
1 LLOY Lloyds Banking Group plc 1.66
2 CPI Capita plc 1.48
3 IQE IQE plc 1.30
4 RMG Royal Mail PLC 1.22
5 XBT Provider AB 1.07
6 XBT Provider AB 0.97
7 GSK GlaxoSmithKline plc 0.96
8 SMT Scottish Mortgage Investment Trust 0.91
9 SXX Sirius Minerals plc 0.82
10 RDSB Royal Dutch Shell Plc B Shares 0.80

Share Tips for 2018

The Share Centre’s investment research analyst Ian Forrest, comments on five equities, an investment trust as well as an ETF that our expert research team think could flourish in 2018.  Read more. Capital at risk.


US Market Report

US open: Stocks slip, volatility moderately higher

Thursday's batch of Federal Reserve speakers was not especially 'hawkish', but the Bank of England's unexpectedly 'hawkish' take on the outlook for interest rates appears to have rekindled some of the market's concerns regarding inflation and where rates may be headed - even in the medium-term.

Stocks initially started the day with a slight bid in the wake of the latest set of initial jobless claims, but that quickly evaporated.

Against that backdrop, as of 1500 GMT the Dow Jones Industrial Average was down 1.47% or 359.97 points at 24,553, alongside a fall of 1.15% or 30.82 points to 2,650.38 for the S&P 500 and a retreat of 1.27% or 89.57 points on the Nasdaq Composite to 6,960.19.

Ten-year US Treasury note yields on the other hand were again heading lower, trading half a basis point lower at 2.83% and off an intra-session high of 2.88%.

To take note of, 30-year fixed rate mortgages were also heading higher, averaging 4.32% over the week ending on 8 Febuary, up 10 points from the week before.

Elsewhere, the CBOE's VIX volatility gauge was gaining 7.18% to 29.72.

As expected, the UK's Monetary Policy Committee kept all its main policy settings unchanged, but according to analysts rate-setters may have opened the door to a hike in Bank Rate for as soon as its meeting in May.

Time will tell, but a fair bit of commentary was to be seen in the wake of the BoE's presser regarding the possibility of even two or three hikes in 2018. "The BoE were more hawkish than we expected today so we change our rate call. Governor Carney said the BoE needed to hike earlier and more than was priced. So we now expect a 25bp Bank Rate hike in May and another in February 2019. That is highly conditional. If Brexit transition talks drag past March or PMIs just remain where they are we will have reconsider," was the take from analysts at Bank of America-Merrill Lynch.

Back in the US, Thursday's weekly unemployment claims data, they revealed a 9,000 person decline to 221,000 for the week ended 3 February, to stand just above 45-year lows reported in mid-January. Economists had predicted the number of claims to rise to somewhere in the vicinity of 232,000.

Fedspeak, Treasury auction, mortgage rates draw attention

Regarding the latest Fedspeak, Philly Fed president Patrick Harker said he was open to hiking interest rates at the March meeting of the Federal Open Market Commmittee.

However, Harker's forecasts still called for only two hikes in 2018. He reportedly also called into question the outlook for inflation, saying that it might firm - or not.

Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari said the US central bank was "a long way away" from raising interest rates due to further inflation caused by higher labour costs. Kashkari also said the January jobs report was actually only "mixed" in terms of wage growth.

"If you dig beneath the surface, wages went up a little but hours went down. And so it was not actually a resoundingly strong report in terms of the outlook for wages," he said. "We need to see that wages are going to go up consistently across the board. We need to see that that is actually going to translate into inflation."

Market participants were also keeping an eye on politics after Senate leaders announced a two-year budget deal late on Wednesday that still needed to pass the House. The deal, outlined by majority leader Mitch McConnell and minority leader Chuck Schumer, has been slammed by conservatives and would increase military and non-defence spending by $300bn and add more than $80bn in disaster relief.

According to analysts, news of the deal was the main factor behind the earlier rise in US bond yields.

Also on traders' radar, that same evening the US Treasury was set to auction $16bn of 30-year bonds, the largest sale at that maturity since 2015.

Tesla down, Philip Morris up

Meanwhile, in US corporate news, shares of Tesla had lost 5% to $339.54 after the electric car-maker posted its biggest ever quarterly loss less than 24 hours after Elon Musk chose to shoot his car into space. Tesla reported a loss of $675.4m, compared ti a loss of $121m in the same period a year ago.

21st Century Fox was also in focus, albeit trading just 1% lower at $35.96 per share after its quarterly earnings and revenue beat analysts' expectations. Revenue for the second quarter came in at $8.04bn versus expectations of $7.94bn, while adjusted earnings per share were 42 cents versus a forecast of 38 cents.

Social media giant Twitter posted its first net quarterly profit in history on Thursday, as rising sales of video advertising space across the microblog came shortly after had seriously slashed expenses in the previous quarter, swinging the President's personal soapbox to a net profit of $91.1m for its fourth trading quarter – a 154% improvement on the previous year's $167.1m loss.

Shares in Philip Morris on the other hand picked up 2.39% to $101.24 each in early trade despite the tobacco giant reporting an earnings-per-share that fell short of analyst expectations and a net income of $694m for the quarter, down 60% from the year-ago quarter

Investors were also sifting through earnings from CVS Health, Cardinal Health, Viacom, Teva and Yum Brands.

Dow Jones - Risers

Apple Inc. (AAPL) $159.96 0.26%
Exxon Mobil Corp. (XOM) $77.02 0.10%
Dowdupont Inc. (DWDP) $70.35 -0.35%
Merck & Co. Inc. (MRK) $55.62 -0.47%
Walt Disney Co. (DIS) $104.12 -0.61%
Procter & Gamble Co. (PG) $81.10 -0.91%
Unitedhealth Group Inc. (UNH) $223.77 -0.91%
Cisco Systems Inc. (CSCO) $39.94 -0.99%
United Technologies Corp. (UTX) $130.62 -1.02%
Chevron Corp. (CVX) $114.06 -1.07%

Dow Jones - Fallers

General Electric Co. (GE) $14.76 -3.25%
Intel Corp. (INTC) $43.81 -3.08%
Boeing Co. (BA) $337.65 -3.01%
Home Depot Inc. (HD) $185.94 -2.80%
Caterpillar Inc. (CAT) $150.10 -2.75%
Travelers Company Inc. (TRV) $138.57 -2.51%
Nike Inc. (NKE) $64.10 -2.33%
3M Co. (MMM) $228.21 -2.14%
JP Morgan Chase & Co. (JPM) $110.77 -1.86%
Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) $129.03 -1.82%

S&P 500 - Risers

Viacom Inc. Class B (VIAB) $33.58 10.06%
Fiserv Inc. (FISV) $137.53 6.47%
Cardinal Health Inc. (CAH) $67.89 4.23%
Southwestern Energy Co. (SWN) $3.72 3.33%
Essex Prty Trust Inc. (ESS) $224.29 2.98%
Philip Morris International Inc. (PM) $101.80 2.95%
Kellogg Co. (K) $65.97 2.74%
Interpublic Group of Companies Inc. (IPG) $21.85 2.58%
Discovery Communications Inc. Class A (DISCA) $23.69 2.49%
Omnicom Group Inc. (OMC) $77.24 2.47%

S&P 500 - Fallers

Hanesbrands Inc. (HBI) $20.00 -8.95%
Teradata Corp. (TDC) $37.29 -7.01%
Mattel Inc. (MAT) $15.98 -5.97%
Goodyear Tire & Rubber Co. (GT) $31.56 -5.71%
Newell Brands Inc (NWL) $27.81 -5.60%
United States Steel Corp. (X) $33.61 -4.87%
Hasbro Inc (HAS) $97.58 -4.54%
Ralph Lauren Corp (RL) $102.95 -4.41%
Borg Warner Inc. (BWA) $52.62 -4.33%
Prudential Fincl Inc. (PRU) $106.42 -4.27%

Nasdaq 100 - Risers

Fiserv Inc. (FISV) $137.53 6.47%
Cognizant Technology Solutions Corp. (CTSH) $77.28 0.99%
Liberty Global plc Series C (LBTYK) $34.64 0.64%
Mercadolibre Inc. (MELI) $345.47 0.56%
Check Point Software Technologies Ltd. (CHKP) $99.55 0.53%
Liberty Global plc Series A (LBTYA) $35.82 0.31%
Apple Inc. (AAPL) $159.96 0.26%
O'Reilly Automotive Inc. (ORLY) $252.53 0.18%
Amgen Inc. (AMGN) $177.40 -0.04%
eBay Inc. (EBAY) $42.27 -0.13%

Nasdaq 100 - Fallers

Take-Two Interactive Software Inc. (TTWO) $107.89 -7.93%
Tesla Inc (TSLA) $328.80 -4.70%
Hasbro Inc (HAS) $97.58 -4.54%
Workday, Inc. (WDAY) $113.49 -3.63%
T-Mobile Us, Inc. (TMUS) $59.97 -3.37%
NetEase Inc. Ads (NTES) $298.68 -3.34%
Lam Research Corp. (LRCX) $165.92 -3.33%
Applied Materials Inc. (AMAT) $47.13 -3.21%
Xilinx Inc. (XLNX) $64.87 -3.14%
Intel Corp. (INTC) $43.81 -3.08%


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Broker Tips

Broker tips: Laird, Randgold, KAZ Minerals

Stifel upgraded technology company Laird to 'buy' from 'hold' on Thursday, saying the recent selloff is overdone.

It noted the share price is down 28% since October's third-quarter trading update, with investors worried about end volume demand and margin pressures from a key customer - which Stifel assumes is Apple - and foreign exchange exposure amid a weakening dollar. In addition, the share price has also been hit by a wider downturn in the markets.

The bank cut its 2018 estimates to reflect a £21m drop year-on-year in smartphone-related revenues and for FX movements.

"Apple’s revenue guide into 1Q ($60-62bn; consensus $65bn) all but vindicated speculation that Apple could cut the production of the iPhone X from 40m units to 20m units in 1Q. As such Laird is exposed to smartphone cyclicality and we now model for a £21m y/y drop in revenues from Apple in 2018e (£12-13m modelled prior)."

Its earnings per share estimates for FY18 are unchanged but it trimmed its EPS forecasts for 2018/19 by around 5% and in turn its price target on the stock to 135p from 160p.

Still, it said Laird's valuation is now "overly conservative", hence the upgrade, adding that the stock price fall has more than accounted for margin/volume pressures faced in the company's smartphone business.

Analysts at HSBC upgraded their recommendation for shares of Randgold Resources on Thursday from 'hold' to 'buy', telling clients they expect the outfit to hike its payout by 50% in 2018 after the company reported record production and increased profits for its most recent trading year.

In the same research note, the broker revised its target price for Randgold down to 7,700p from its previous 7,800p estimate, explaining that the positive impact from gains on the back of an expected 3.5% increase in its US dollar valuation was offset by revisions to its assumptions for the pound sterling.

The Asia-focused lender went on to explain that after a "somewhat pedestrian" third quarter, the firm had returned a "rock solid" performance in the three months leading to 31 December, with a 12% year-on-year jump in group sales, alongside a 6% retracement in unit costs and a 19% jump in profits received from mining.

HSBC also highlighted how Randgold remained debt free with a closing cash balance of $720m, up 39% year-on-year, helping to support the 54% boost to its full-year 2017 earnings per share of $2.96 and $2 a share annual dividend payout.

"We expect Randgold's operational outperformance and unrivalled track record of discovering and developing high-quality assets in West and Central Africa to continue to set the group apart. Over time these qualities have resulted in low volatility relative to peer group and earnings multiples that trade at sustained and substantial premia."

Barclays upgraded its view on KAZ Minerals on Thursday, telling clients the recent pullback in the stock had opened-up an unusually large valuation gap relative to peer Antofagasta.

Yet following Kaz's recent restructuring, it was "fundamentally" changed; indeed, the broker's analysts argued it was now a superior business from several standpoints.

Those included its cost position, free cash flow conversion and growth potential and, as a result, the broker decided to up its view on KAZ shares to 'overweight'.

"Rising inflation is strongly correlated with higher copper prices over the last 60 years: every 10% change in copper is 20% on KAZ EPS, all else equal."

The shares' return to their August 2017 levels also made them much more attractive, the analysts said, having pushed the price-to-earnings discount for the shares relative to rival Antofagasta from its historical level of 32% to 54%.

Thus, even a simple mean reversion in the discount would entail a 22% jump in the share price, they said - the main driver of their 1,015p target price.

Should the discount narrow even further, on the back of Kaz's improved fundamentals, reaching parity with Antofagasta for example, that would imply a target of 1,442p, which was Barclays's 'upside' case.


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