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Feb 28, 2018

Evening Euro Markets Bulletin

 
ADVFN III Evening Euro Markets Bulletin
Daily world financial news Wednesday, 28 February 2018 21:51:13
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London close: Stocks slip after China data disappoints
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London stocks closed lower on Wednesday, weighed down by weakness in the mining sector and disappointing earnings from ITV and Taylor Wimpey, as the City was covered in a blanket of snow.

The FTSE 100 was down 0.69% to 7,231.91, while the pound was off 0.86% against the dollar at 1.3785 and 0.70% weaker versus the euro at 1.1289.

Investors were mulling the latest data releases from China, as both the manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMIs for February came in lower than expected at 50.3 and 54.5, respectively. This dragged on miners, with shares in Glencore, Rio Tinto, Anglo American, BHP Billiton and Antofagasta all lower.

Chris Beauchamp at IG, said: "There was more good news for markets this afternoon thanks to a good US GDP reading. Particularly encouraging was the consumer spending element, which hit its highest level in three years. Evidently the lack of wage growth is less of a problem than previously thought. It has been a somewhat mixed session, as while markets are off the lows of the day investors are still digesting Powell's comments from yesterday.

"All eyes are on the US dollar index, which is poised to break to a six-week high, which might finally lead to some sustained downside for the euro and sterling and let UK and European markets play catch-up. Then again, the powerful downtrend might just reassert itself, as the market adjusts following Powell’s testimony. They learned to live with three hikes, so four might be survivable too."

The latest GfK survey was also in focus, showing consumer confidence in the UK fell in February, with the long-running index down one point to -10 from January, as expected.

"Ongoing concerns about sluggish household income, rising prices paid by consumers in the shops, and the prospect of inflation-busting council tax and interest rate hikes has dented confidence after last month’s surprising rally," said GfK's Joe Staton. "The two-year trend of negative sentiment - the overall index score has bounced between zero and -13 since February 2016 - proves consumers feel pessimistic about the state of household finances and the wider UK economy."

The retail sector was in in the spotlight as Toys R Us and Maplin went into administration, putting around 5,500 jobs at risk.

Neil Wilson, senior market analyst at ETX Capital, attributed the failure of Toys R Us to a "systemic failure to move with the changes in the retail sector". He also said the "Amazon effect" was all too clear to see, adding that there are implications for competitors and the retail market in general.

Outside of the main index, Mothercare shares tumbled, while Debenhams and Marks & Spencer were also trading lower.

Sainsbury’s, which probably stands to gain most from the Toys R Us demise through Argos, was trading up, while Tesco, another likely gainer, also rose. Meanwhile, Dixons Carphone was higher on the back of Maplin’s collapse.

Elsewhere, ITV slumped as the broadcaster said profits fell last year amid a squeeze on advertising sales, although the dividend was lifted 10% as a 'strategic refresh' got underway under new chief executive Carolyn McCall.

Taylor Wimpey was in the red as it posted a drop in full-year pre-tax profit, while engineer Weir slipped even as it reported a 47% rise in full-year pre-tax profits.

Builders merchant Travis Perkins suffered heavy losses as it said adjusted full-year pre-tax profit dropped 10%, while while FTSE 250 hedge fund Man Group lost ground even as it reported a rise in full-year funds under management amid record net inflows

Premier Inn and Costa owner Whitbread slipped as it announced the acquisition of a portfolio of 19 hotels in Germany from Foremost Hospitality Group for an undisclosed sum.

Insurer Admiral rallied after posting a 43% jump in full-year pre-tax profit and declaring a special dividend amid record customer numbers.

Business information group Informa rose as it said revenue in the 12 months to the end of December grew 30.7% to £1.76bn and UBM gained as its full-year numbers came in in line with expectations.

Wealth manager St James’s Place advanced as it posted a 36% increase in full-year operating profit..

In broker note action, James Fisher was lifted by an upgrade to ‘buy’ at Canaccord and British American Tobacco was weaker after a downgrade to ‘neutral’ at Citi.

Market Movers

FTSE 100 (UKX) 7,231.91 -0.69%
FTSE 250 (MCX) 19,687.27 -0.95%
techMARK (TASX) 3,317.75 -0.38%

FTSE 100 - Risers

St James's Place (STJ) 1,154.50p 2.58%
International Consolidated Airlines Group SA (CDI) (IAG) 614.60p 1.86%
Shire Plc (SHP) 3,109.00p 1.80%
Tesco (TSCO) 210.80p 1.79%
GKN (GKN) 437.80p 1.65%
Croda International (CRDA) 4,622.00p 1.58%
WPP (WPP) 1,394.00p 1.46%
Informa (INF) 695.40p 1.37%
Sky (SKY) 1,348.00p 1.24%
BAE Systems (BA.) 579.40p 1.19%

FTSE 100 - Fallers

ITV (ITV) 160.00p -7.62%
Admiral Group (ADM) 1,843.00p -4.56%
Fresnillo (FRES) 1,219.50p -4.20%
Taylor Wimpey (TW.) 186.00p -4.00%
Antofagasta (ANTO) 870.00p -3.95%
Standard Chartered (STAN) 810.80p -3.36%
Anglo American (AAL) 1,780.60p -3.33%
Rio Tinto (RIO) 3,926.00p -3.00%
Severn Trent (SVT) 1,707.50p -2.84%
BHP Billiton (BLT) 1,484.20p -2.68%

FTSE 250 - Risers

Fisher (James) & Sons (FSJ) 1,562.00p 10.78%
AA (AA.) 79.50p 8.19%
Ultra Electronics Holdings (ULE) 1,590.00p 4.61%
Drax Group (DRX) 248.60p 4.19%
Elementis (ELM) 291.80p 3.92%
Hastings Group Holdings (HSTG) 312.60p 2.83%
Sanne Group (SNN) 646.00p 2.38%
Ocado Group (OCDO) 553.20p 1.88%
UBM (UBM) 922.00p 1.88%
Weir Group (WEIR) 2,036.00p 1.75%

FTSE 250 - Fallers

Travis Perkins (TPK) 1,285.00p -10.45%
Greggs (GRG) 1,195.00p -7.51%
Genus (GNS) 2,204.00p -6.59%
NewRiver REIT (NRR) 293.00p -5.89%
Brown (N.) Group (BWNG) 190.98p -5.60%
FirstGroup (FGP) 81.95p -5.26%
Man Group (EMG) 172.10p -5.14%
Vectura Group (VEC) 72.45p -4.80%
Hunting (HTG) 614.50p -4.62%
Go-Ahead Group (GOG) 1,531.00p -4.19%


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Europe close: Late selling hits stocks across the Continent
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A wave of selling in the final stretch of the session weighed on stocks across the Continent on the last day of the month.

By the close of trading, the benchmark Stoxx 600 was down by 0.71% or 2.73 points at 379.63, alongside a 0.44% or 54.88 point fall to 12,435.85 for the German Dax, while the Cac-40 was 0.44% lower at 5,320.49.

Meanwhile, out on the euro area periphery, the Ibex 35 was retreating by 0.45% or 46.30 points to 9,853.90, but the FTSE Mibtel was adding 0.02% or 6.20 points to 22,730.66.

Over in FX markets, euro/dollar was slipping 0.24% to 1.2203 while the yield on the benchmark 10 year Bund was down by two basis point at 0.66%.

Acting as a backdrop, in testimony before US lawmakers on Tuesday evening, US central bank chief Jerome Powell appeared to leave the door open to a slight acceleration in the pace of rate cuts if economic conditions warranted such a move, according to many economists.

On the economic front, earlier Eurostat reported that the rate of inflation within the single currency bloc had slowed from a 1.2% pace year-on-year for January to 1.1% in February.

At the 'core' level, CPI was flat at up 1.0% year-on-year.

That followed a weaker than expected reading on German CPI the day before which prompted Michael Hewson at CMC Markets UK to say: "German inflation on the other hand remains stubbornly low, and is declining, despite an unemployment rate at a record low of 5.4%, and a recent wage settlement of over 4% for IG Metall workers."

In parallel, it was reported that the number of jobless in Germany declined by 22,000 in February, close on the heels of a 24,000 person fall in the month before (consensus: 15,000).

Going the other way, GfK's measure of consumer confidence in the Eurozone's largest economy fell back from a reading of 11.0 for February to a print of 10.0 (consensus: 10.8).

Hogging the headlines in the corporate space, German chemicals giant Bayer posted adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortisation of €1.78bn, a shade less than the consensus forecast.

Elsewhere, according to Il Sole 24 Ore Italy's Leonardo was in talks with Qatar to sell the Kingdom 22 Nh90 military helicopters.


US open: Stocks mostly higher at month-end after Fed comments

Trading on Wall Street opened marginally firmer on Wednesday, with shares bouncing back from a sell-off fuelled by new Fed chair Jerome Powell's congressional testimony on Tuesday, which rattled the market.

At 1525 GMT, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was down 0.16%, with the S&P 500 dipping 0.08% but the Nasdaq moving ahead 0.02%.

On Tuesday, stocks ended in the red as Powell’s first congressional testimony did little to soothe investors’ worries about inflation. A hawkish tone signalled that US interest rates were set to continue rising, adding weight to expectations of four rate hikes this year - rather than three.

Powell said that his "personal outlook for the economy had strengthened since December", with data that "will in my case add some confidence to my view that inflation is moving up to target."

Amongst the reasons for his optimism, he cited the continuing strength in the labour market, a fiscal impulse, and the global economic expansion.

Rabobank said: "This was a clear shot across the bow from the new Chair, suggesting that - if it is up to him - the FOMC may want to revise its current projections of three hikes for this year up to include a fourth."

Powell is due to make his next appearance on Capitol Hill in front of a Senate committee on Thursday.

On the data front, fourth-quarter GDP was, as expected, revised down by the Commerce Department to reveal a rate of expansion of 2.5%, less than a prior reading of 2.6%, keeping it on track for a slow start to the year.

The downward revision reflected a greater subtraction from private inventory investment.

Output grew 2.5% in the fourth quarter of 2017 when compared with same period a year earlier, which was far faster than the 1.8% pace of expansion seen in 2016, something Spreadex market analyst Connor Campbell said "might take the shine off the dollar and give the Dow a bit more room to breathe."

Separately, economic activity in the Chicago area deteriorated more quickly than expected in February, according to the Chicago PMI published by MNI.

The MNI Chicago Business Barometer fell to 61.9 in February from 65.7 in January, its lowest level since August 2017, missing expectations of a smaller decline to 64.1.

As in January, firms reported a slower pace of incoming orders and output, as new orders dropped to a six-month low, the principal reason for the barometer's decline, while the production indicator also slipped, to a level last seen lower in September.

Elsewhere, the National Association of Realtors said that contracts to buy previously owned homes had unexpectedly declined in January to their lowest level in more than three years, another indication that the housing market was losing some of its steam.

NAR's pending home sales index dropped to a reading of 104.6, down 4.7% from December, which was also downwardly revised to 109.8, missing forecasts for a 0.3% increase by a mile.

In corporate news, Office Depot fell 8.66% after its fourth-quarter profit beat expectations but sales fell short, while Lowe’s dropped 6.15% after its quarterly profits missed expectations.

Etsy surged 22.02% after the online marketplace issued forecast-beating fourth quarter earnings, while Booking Holdings was higher in pre-market trade after better-than-expected quarterly earnings and sales late on Tuesday.


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Broker tips: Safestyle, Asiamet Resources, James Fisher

Liberum cut its stance on AIM-listed windows and doors specialist Safestyle to ‘hold’ from ‘buy’ after it warned on 2018 revenue and profits on Wednesday, reducing the target price to 130p from 200p.

Safestyle cautioned earlier that revenues and underlying profit for 2018 will be "materially below" the previous year’s levels and current market expectations as the market continues to deteriorate. It also said that the activities of "an aggressive new market entrant" have added to an already competitive landscape and hit certain areas of the group’s operations.

Liberum said that while the valuation is supportive, the share price performance is likely to be subdued until investors feel that the full impact of the new entrant is understood, and that Safestyle's cost savings programme has been successfully implemented.

"We understand that the new entrant has had a significant impact on Safestyle because it has started activities in Safestyle's northern heartland, and we also understand that it has attracted some self-employed sales and canvass representatives from Safestyle," Liberum said.

The brokerage cut its sales estimate by 10% for 2018, which it said should prove quite cautious as around 40% of leads are generated by door canvass, where the disruption has been felt most. It expects gross margins to be broadly maintained, with the impact of the new entrant offsetting the benefits from cost rationalisation measures undertaken by Safestyle, and estimates a reduction in overheads due to management actions to rationalise the group.

Liberum pointed out that management has pledged to maintain the 2017 full-year dividend and said the shares should also be supported by £9m of free cash flow at the trough and around £11m of net cash expected at the end of 2018.

Copper explorer Asiamet Resources was tipped as a 'buy' by Liberum on Wednesday as it has assets near to production and "globally significant" in scale, with its valuation implying it is the "best kept secret in copper".

Asiamet has 2.9m tonnes of attributable contained copper equivalent resources in the ground across two projects in Indonesia at an average 0.62% copper.

Exploration is ongoing and further resource additions are expected in 2018, Liberum said, as is the financing of its initial 25,000 tonnes per year SX-EW mine at Beruang Kanan Main, in Kalimantan. A bankable feasibility study is due in the second quarter and if it proves the resource would deliver 50% of the company’s current market cap in free cash slow by 2021 at $3 per lb of copper, analysts said.

Raising the entire equity portion required for development of BKM on AIM would be particularly dilutive, they admit, but believe Asiamet will look to sell a minority stake in its Kalimantan Surya Kencana (KSK) license to a local partner, "which should contribute materially towards the equity required for development of BKM and be highly accretive". If Asiamet sold a 40% stake in KSK this could be valued at $172m.

Their sum-of-the-parts valuation of 20p was double the last closing price, with comparisons with other stocks in the region "imply similar levels of mispricing", said analysts, pointing to a recent bid for ASX-listed Finders Resources, which operates in Indonesia.

Investors should take advantage of an unusual opportunity to buyJames Fisher and Sons shares relatively cheaply, according to analysts at Canaccord Genuity.

The marine services company has a 23-year record of almost uninterrupted rising earnings and dividends, a balanced business and an established strategy, the analysts said as they upgraded the shares to ‘buy’ from ‘hold’.

This record has meant the shares are rarely cheap but they have fallen 10% in 2018, more rapidly than the wider market.

At £14.10 the shares at the time of writing were trading at 16 times forecast 2018 earnings compared with an average of 17 times over the past three years.

Annual results on 27 February were good and more than £40m could be freed for acquisitions as capital requirements stabilise. The company’s offshore oil business will probably do better this year and the consensus for 2018 earnings is on the low side, the analysts said.

 

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