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Dec 4, 2017

Evening Euro Markets Bulletin

 
ADVFN III Evening Euro Markets Bulletin
Daily world financial news Monday, 04 December 2017 18:41:20
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London Market Report
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London close: Shares held back as Brexit talks hit unexpected snag

London stocks were up but off earlier highs even as investors welcomed the passing of the US tax reform bill, held back by the lack of a widely-expected breakthrough in the Brexit negotiations, reportedly on the back of opposition from the DUP.

The FTSE 100 ended the session 0.53% higher to 7,338.97, while the pound was down 0.09% against the dollar at 1.3459 and 0.29% firmer versus the euro at 1.1360.

In the background, prices for 10-year Gilts continued their wild gyrations, with selling on Monday pushing the yield on the benchmark issue of that maturity higher by five basis points to 1.29%, as the White House's tax cut plans gathered pace.

"A day of rumours, claims and counter-claims has left UK investors reeling. As the session winds down in London it looks like, contrary to previous reports, that there will not be a deal between the UK and the EU. Even if there had been a deal, it is not clear whether the DUP would have accepted it.

"And then there was the unseemly rush by the leaders of Wales and Scotland, and London's mayor, to announce that they would look to get their own special deals done. We knew Brexit would never be simple, but just how complicated it would be is still a surprise," said Chris Beauchamp, chief market analyst at IG.

Critically, according to the BBC's Laura Kuenssberg a deal between London and Brussels was "sunk" by an angry reaction from the DUP to possible concessions to Dublin.

Westminster had reportedly been prepared to accept that Northern Ireland could remain in the customs union and single European market in everything but name.

Somewhat ironically perhaps, writing in Monday's FT, Wolfgang Munchau wrote that the EU would never be able to deliver a 'deep' trade agreement.

On the economic front, the Markit/CIPS UK construction purchasing managers' index jumped to a five-month high of 53.1 for November from 50.8 in October.

With a PMI reading above 50 signalling growth, November's survey pointed to a return to growth after two consecutive quarters of contraction and was well ahead of the consensus forecast of 51.0.

A pick-up in the sector was largely confined to residential building, the survey found, with resilient demand reported and even an accelerated upturn in residential work.

Investors were also cheering news that the US Senate has voted 51 to 49 to pass a bill that will implement a slew of changes to the US tax code which will include a big cut in corporation tax to 20% from 35%.

On the corporate front, US-exposed equipment rental firm Ashtead and building materials group CRH gained on the back of the passing of the US Senate tax bill.

Broadcaster Sky was a high riser amid news that 21st Century Fox has restarted talks over a possible sale to Walt Disney.

Rio Tinto was on the front foot as it appointed non-executive director Simon Thompson as chairman with effect from 5 March 2018, succeeding Jan du Plessis.

Bus and coach operator National Express rose after saying it has enjoyed a good trading performance across all divisions in the autumn and completed two overseas acquisitions.

Budget airline Ryanair flew higher after reporting a 6% jump in traffic for last month as the load factor edged higher.

In broker note action, UBM was boosted by an upgrade from Exane BNP Paribas, while Premier Oil gushed higher after it was bumped up to 'buy' from 'hold' at Canaccord Genuity and IMI gained on an upgrade to 'buy' from Deutsche Bank.

Consumer goods giant Reckitt Benckiser was weaker after being cut to 'add' from 'buy' at AlphaValue, while Ultra Electronics was hit by a downgrade out of analysts at Bank of America-Merrill Lynch.


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Market Movers

FTSE 100 (UKX) 7,338.97 0.53%
FTSE 250 (MCX) 19,935.95 0.41%
techMARK (TASX) 3,425.33 0.20%

FTSE 100 - Risers

Carnival (CCL) 4,931.00p 3.51%
Sky (SKY) 957.00p 2.80%
Ashtead Group (AHT) 1,954.00p 2.63%
Barclays (BARC) 194.25p 2.56%
Mediclinic International (MDC) 572.00p 2.42%
Convatec Group (CTEC) 204.20p 2.36%
Ferguson (FERG) 5,480.00p 2.33%
CRH (CRH) 2,604.00p 2.24%
Marks & Spencer Group (MKS) 316.20p 2.20%
TUI AG Reg Shs (DI) (TUI) 1,383.00p 1.99%

FTSE 100 - Fallers

Fresnillo (FRES) 1,273.00p -2.68%
Randgold Resources Ltd. (RRS) 6,795.00p -1.23%
Mondi (MNDI) 1,719.00p -1.21%
NMC Health (NMC) 2,818.00p -1.05%
Scottish Mortgage Inv Trust (SMT) 437.40p -0.73%
Next (NXT) 4,404.00p -0.63%
Imperial Brands (IMB) 3,055.50p -0.54%
Worldpay Group (WPG) 421.70p -0.50%
GKN (GKN) 303.00p -0.49%
AstraZeneca (AZN) 4,745.00p -0.46%

FTSE 250 - Risers

Syncona Limited NPV (SYNC) 204.80p 3.70%
Marshalls (MSLH) 439.00p 3.27%
Pets at Home Group (PETS) 173.60p 3.21%
IMI (IMI) 1,279.00p 3.15%
Dunelm Group (DNLM) 700.50p 2.85%
TBC Bank Group (TBCG) 1,596.00p 2.56%
Greencore Group (GNC) 217.30p 2.50%
Synthomer (SYNT) 486.30p 2.46%
Electrocomponents (ECM) 631.00p 2.44%
Petrofac Ltd. (PFC) 442.62p 2.41%

FTSE 250 - Fallers

Ocado Group (OCDO) 348.40p -4.15%
Hikma Pharmaceuticals (HIK) 977.50p -3.60%
Indivior (INDV) 369.70p -3.22%
Polymetal International (POLY) 867.00p -3.02%
Vedanta Resources (VED) 677.50p -2.87%
Kaz Minerals (KAZ) 736.50p -2.77%
Ultra Electronics Holdings (ULE) 1,266.00p -2.62%
Inmarsat (ISAT) 495.00p -2.37%
Serco Group (SRP) 91.90p -2.18%


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Europe Market Report
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Europe close: Early gains for stocks stick as US dollar gains

Early strong gains in European stockmarkets stuck this time, amid US tax reform progress that boosted the dollar's value and after news broke of a possible breakthrough in Brexit talks.

At the closing bell, the Stoxx 600 benchmark was up 3.50 points or 0.91% at 387.47, with Germany's DAX leaping 197.06 points higher to 13,058.55 and France's CAC adding 72.40 points or 1.36% to reach 5,389.29.

Exporters were on the front foot as the euro dropped 0.38% against the dollar to 1.1846, continuing a retreat from its recent two- month high, and down 0.3% versus the pound to 0.8803.

Weakness against Sterling came despite not entirely unexpected news that Brexit talks had hit a snag in the form of the Irish border issue.

In the background, the US Senate's 51-49 vote on Saturday paving the way for the first major overhaul of the US tax system since the Reagan administration was in focus.

While the bill will still have to be aligned with the lower house's equivalent bill, this marks a key legislative victory for President Donald Trump, and allowed markets to ignore the news from the end of last week that Trump's former security advisor, Michael Flynn, had pleaded guilty about lying to the FBI.

Back in Europe, ELSTAT reported that Greece's gross domestic product expanded at a 0.3% quarter-on-quarter pace over the three months to September (consensus: 0.4%), amid upwards revisions to estimates for prior quarters.

Following revisions, Greek authorities pegged second quarter GDP growth at 0.8%, versus a previous estimate of 0.5%.

Meanwhile, Eurostat reported a dip in the year-on-year rate of euro area factory gate inflation for October from 2.8% to 2.5% (consensus: 2.6%).

On the corporate front, shares in Fressenius, Commerzbank, Deutsche Post, ThyssenKrupp and BMW all benefited from the slide in the euro.

Commerzbank was lifted despite its London subsidiary getting a telling off by the UK financial regulator for not vetting its customers thoroughly enough.

German paper Handelsblatt reported that Commerzbank had stopped conducting further business with clients whose vetting had been criticized by after the Financial Conduct Authority said its financial crime controls were insufficient.

Shares in Dialog Semiconductor were in the red again after the German-listed, UK-based chip maker said it recognised that Apple, its largest client by far, could potentially design its own power management integrated circuits "in the next few years".

France's Casino Guichard-Perrachon, which last week signed a key deal with the UK's Ocado, was up 0.5% as it announced the extension of its partnership with Spain's Distribuidora Internacional de Alimentacion to form a new joint venture that will manage orders, payment and the supply of private-label products for both Casino and DIA, as well as generating potential value chain innovations.

In another sector, Airbus's head of jet manufacturing, Fabrice Bregier, told Les Echos the manufacturer was still expecting to deliver over 700 aircraft in 2017, a production record, despite delays in engine deliveries from suppliers.


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Hargreaves Lansdown

Top of the stocks

Number of Deals Bought

Place EPIC Equity name %
1 PYC Physiomics plc 3.35
2 XBT Provider AB 2.48
3 LLOY Lloyds Banking Group plc 2.47
4 SMT Scottish Mortgage Investment Trust 2.14
5 GSK GlaxoSmithKline plc 1.90
6 VRS Versarien plc 1.67
7 XBT Provider AB 1.67
8 XBT Provider AB 1.47
9 GGP Greatland Gold Plc 1.30
10 CNA Centrica plc 1.18

Number of Deals Sold

Place EPIC Equity name %
1 PYC Physiomics plc 3.48
2 LLOY Lloyds Banking Group plc 1.98
3 XBT Provider AB 1.81
4 VRS Versarien plc 1.49
5 GGP Greatland Gold Plc 1.24
6 RMG Royal Mail PLC 1.07
7 XBT Provider AB 1.04
8 CNA Centrica plc 1.03
9 UKOG UK Oil & Gas Investments plc 1.00
10 BARC Barclays plc 0.95

US Market Report

US open: Tech less in favour as US tax cuts progress

Wall Street is trading on a mixed note at the start of the week as investors welcome news that Senate Republicans have passed their proposed tax reform bill but rotate out of technology stocks, although political concerns were still on some traders' minds.

At 1458 GMT, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was up by 1.14% or 268.46 points to 24,499.11, while the S%P 500 was climbing 0.62% or 16.42 points to trade at 2,659.05.

The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite on the other hand was off by -0.18% or 11.55 points to 6,839.58.

From a sector standpoint, the best performance was to be seen among the following industrial groups: Airlines (3.58%), Broadcasting 3.17% and Iron & Steel (3.15%).

In parallel, the yield on the benchmark 10-year US Treasury was three basis points higher to 2.39%.

At the weekend, the US Senate voted 51 to 49 to pass a bill that will implement a slew of changes to the US tax code which will include a big cut in corporation tax.

Analysts at Rabobank and Berenberg believed the lion's share of the boost to US GDP growth would arrive in 2018 and 2019, with the latter now predicting four interest rate hikes from the Federal Reserve in 2018 on the back of the proposed legislative changes.

According to Berenberg's chief US economist, Mickey D.Levy, the proposed tax cuts would stoke an acceleration in the rate of business fixed investment to an annualised pace of roughly 6.6% over 2018-2019, from the average 3% clip it had sustained over the past five years.

On the political front, as things would have it, late on 1 December ABC was forced to publish a correction to an earlier report in which it claimed that ex-US national security adviser Michael Flynn might testify that he had been instructed to contact Russian officials during the past US elections.

Instead, he was reportedly asked to do so after the elections, during the so-called 'transition' period between administrations.

Be that as it may, the rally that ensued in US Treasuries on 1 December was only partly unwound following the rectification from ABC.

"The fact that only half of the rally was reversed on Friday is likely a reflection of the fact that, despite ABC having corrected its earlier inflammatory report, Flynn's admission of guilt raises the prospect of the investigation moving toward President Trump's inner circle," Rabobank said.

In corporate news, shares in General Cable surged after it agreed to be bought by Italian cable maker Prysmian Group in a deal that values the company at around $3bn including debt and other liabilities.

Elsewhere, drugstore chain CVS Health inked a deal to buy health insurer Aetna in a deal worth around $69bn.

Hartford Financial was in focus after agreeing to sell its run-off-life and annuity businesses, Talcott Resolution, to a group of investors in a deal valued at $2.05bn.

Dow Jones - Risers

JP Morgan Chase & Co. (JPM) $107.96 3.03%
Verizon Communications Inc. (VZ) $52.11 2.40%
Boeing Co. (BA) $277.61 2.30%
Walt Disney Co. (DIS) $107.64 2.27%
Home Depot Inc. (HD) $184.06 2.02%
Caterpillar Inc. (CAT) $143.88 1.67%
Merck & Co. Inc. (MRK) $56.11 1.52%
Dowdupont Inc. (DWDP) $72.00 1.39%
Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (GS) $252.11 1.27%
Intel Corp. (INTC) $45.21 1.18%

Dow Jones - Fallers

Visa Inc. (V) $110.00 -2.30%
United Technologies Corp. (UTX) $121.07 -0.31%
Microsoft Corp. (MSFT) $84.04 -0.26%
McDonald's Corp. (MCD) $172.67 -0.12%
Coca-Cola Co. (KO) $45.94 -0.07%
Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) $139.92 -0.04%
3M Co. (MMM) $243.26 0.05%
Nike Inc. (NKE) $60.47 0.08%
Unitedhealth Group Inc. (UNH) $228.50 0.14%
Procter & Gamble Co. (PG) $90.50 0.15%

S&P 500 - Risers

Transocean Ltd. (RIG) $10.73 5.82%
Bed Bath & Beyond Inc. (BBBY) $23.60 5.26%
Murphy Oil Corp. (MUR) $29.23 4.58%
Frontier Communications Co. (FTR) $8.94 4.56%
United States Steel Corp. (X) $30.22 4.50%
Macy's Inc. (M) $25.27 4.46%
Schlumberger Ltd. (SLB) $65.46 4.15%
Kroger Co. (KR) $26.71 4.05%
Express Scripts Holding Co (ESRX) $67.00 4.02%
Newfield Exploration Co (NFX) $32.15 3.96%

S&P 500 - Fallers

First Solar Inc. (FSLR) $57.60 -4.48%
Signet Jewelers Ltd (SIG) $50.49 -3.44%
CVS Health Corp (CVS) $72.79 -3.10%
Thermo Fisher Scientific Inc. (TMO) $187.22 -2.87%
Tenet Healthcare Corp. (THC) $13.74 -2.55%
Adobe Systems Inc. (ADBE) $175.71 -2.12%
Roper Technologies Inc (ROP) $261.75 -2.04%
Electronic Arts Inc. (EA) $103.90 -2.00%
Visa Inc. (V) $110.39 -1.96%
Vulcan Materials Co. (VMC) $123.21 -1.94%

Nasdaq 100 - Risers

Express Scripts Holding Co (ESRX) $67.00 4.02%
Fastenal Co. (FAST) $54.23 3.93%
Discovery Communications Inc. Class A (DISCA) $20.16 3.60%
Discovery Communications Inc. Class C (DISCK) $19.02 3.37%
Hologic Inc. (HOLX) $42.21 3.33%
Comcast Corp. (CMCSA) $39.69 3.28%
Viacom Inc. Class B (VIAB) $29.33 3.27%
Dollar Tree Inc (DLTR) $106.15 3.05%
Ulta Salon, Cosmetics & Fragrance Inc. (ULTA) $218.93 2.99%
CSX Corp. (CSX) $57.72 2.81%

Nasdaq 100 - Fallers

Adobe Systems Inc. (ADBE) $175.71 -2.12%
Electronic Arts Inc. (EA) $103.90 -2.00%
Symantec Corp. (SYMC) $28.64 -1.61%
Activision Blizzard Inc. (ATVI) $61.33 -1.01%
Paypal Holdings Inc (PYPL) $74.61 -0.92%
Applied Materials Inc. (AMAT) $51.53 -0.73%
QUALCOMM Inc. (QCOM) $65.03 -0.70%
Analog Devices Inc. (ADI) $84.84 -0.66%
Walgreens Boots Alliance, Inc. (WBA) $71.00 -0.63%


Broker Tips

Broker tips: SIG, Barclays, Cineworld

Jefferies upgraded insulation and roofing supplier SIG to 'buy' from 'hold' and lifted the price target to 200p from 150p saying the recent strategy day mapped out a credible turnaround plan.

"The road will not be straight, but we expect management to fully deliver on their 5% margin targets in the medium term. Much of the turnaround lies within the group's control and is not predicated on rapid recovery in the group's end markets" it said.

Jefferies pointed out that SIG's strategy is to achieve 5% return on sales and 15% return on capital employed margins in the medium term, while reducing leverage to less than 1x. It said that in essence, the strategy involves doing more with what the group already has.

Management has identified three strategic levers, customer service, customer value and operational efficiency, supported by enhanced data and IT services.


Threadneedle Street's stress tests are "somewhat negative" for the UK listed domestic banks, said Exane BNP Paribas on Tuesday, warning that it "raises questions over the speed to dividend normalisation".

Exane noted that the £50bn of losses revealed in the Bank of England's stress tests were much larger than seen in the 2016 stress test and "are likely to raise concerns over the extent to which PRA buffers are required".

The Bank said no banks needed to make changes as a result of the test, the first time it has been able to do this since the tests started in 2014, but its Financial Policy Committee will now review whether an additional capital cushion is needed. Such an extra buffer would be determined by the Prudential Regulation Authority.

Exane added that by the time fully loaded requirements become binding at the start of 2019 these numbers might have changed markedly, with misconduct costs expected to fall markedly over the next year or two, "but the size of these losses will still raise question marks over these banks".

Exane said its initial view is that Barclays "looks most vulnerable of the UK domestic banks to a PRA buffer" at the start of 2019, particularly given it also lost 450bps in last year's test and the PRA does not focus on just one year's numbers.

 

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