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Dec 14, 2017

Evening Euro Markets Bulletin

 
ADVFN III Evening Euro Markets Bulletin
Daily world financial news Thursday, 14 December 2017 18:44:10
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London Market Report
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London close: Footsie lower as traders test Sterling upside

London stocks finished lower on Thursday as the Bank of England stood pat on monetary policy, as widely expected, but amid dovishness across the Pond and on the other side of the Channel which resulted in a stronger Sterling.

The FTSE 100 was down 0.65% or 48.39 points to 7,448.12 by the close, while the pound was higher against the euro at 1.1404 and up by 0.15% versus the US dollar to 1.3436.

Threadneedle Street's Monetary Policy Committee voted unanimously to hold rates at 0.5% after its first rate hike in 10 years last month.

David Morrison, senior market strategist at GKFX, said: "This came as no surprise after last month's 0.25% rate hike which was accompanied by the quarterly Inflation Report. Back then, the Bank made it clear that they were in no hurry to raise rates further, signalling that the market's forecast of two more 25 basis-point rate hikes before the end of 2020 was in line with the BoE's thinking.

"Since then we've seen a pick-up in inflation as measured by CPI. The latest update came in at 3.1% annualised, well above the Bank's 2% target. But concerns over Brexit should stay the Bank's hand even if inflation should tick higher from here."

Investors were also digesting an expected 25 basis points rate hike by the Fed overnight. The US central bank stuck to its projection of three more rate hikes in each of 2018 and 2019. However, two rate-setters, Chicago Fed president Charles Evans and Minneapolis Fed boss Neel Kashkari both dissented, preferring instead to keep rates as they were.

Later, in Frankfurt, the European Central Bank's latest set of macroeconomic projections revealed policymakers saw CPI rising at just a 1.7% year-on-year clip in 2020, on average, below its stated goal of under but close to 2.0%.

Earlier, data from the Office for National Statistics showed UK retail sales increased much more than expected last month due to seasonal statistical difficulties caused by Black Friday.

Sales volumes rallied 1.1% month-to-month in November, which was much higher than the consensus 0.4% forecast.

The year-on-year growth rate increased to 1.6%, with the previous month's growth revised to flat from the 0.3% fall originally estimated. The consensus was for a 0.3% rise on the year.

ONS admitted that its seasonal adjustment may not fully account for a longer Black Friday sales period, with this set of data covering the period up to 25 November, while Cyber Monday sales from 27 November will be included in the next set of figures.

Politics were also in focus on Thursday after the government was narrowly defeated in a key vote on its Brexit bill a day earlier. Lawmakers dealt a blow to PM Theresa May as they voted to give a legal guarantee of a vote on the final Brexit deal with Brussels.

In corporate news, distribution and outsourcing group Bunzl fell saying it has been trading in line and expects full-year revenues to rise around 15% at actual exchange rates.

Oilfield services group Petrofac was weaker despite saying in a pre-close update that trading was in line with expectations and that it has seen a recovery in new order intake in 2017.

888 Holdings lost ground after it said earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortisation for the year to the end of December should be in line with market expectations.

Sports Direct shares slumped after the company posted a 67% drop in first-half profit, with investors seemingly unconvinced by chief executive Mike Ashley's claims that the group's elevation strategy is delivering a "spectacular trading performance".

Imperial Leather and Original Source owner PZ Cussons retreated as it warned that first-half operating profits will be around 10% lower than the previous period due to reduced margins in some business units in Europe and Africa.

Outsourcer Capita tumbled after saying trading for the year to date was in line with expectations, but highlighting a challenging outlook for 2018, while Standard Chartered was hit by a downgrade to 'sell' at Investec.

On the upside, Ocado rallied from early losses after it reported strong but slightly slower sales growth in the fourth quarter as a lack of delivery drivers put the brakes on capacity, though previous falls in the online grocer's average basket size were arrested.

BT Group was also higher following an upgrade to 'buy' at UBS, while IMI advanced after agreeing to acquire Bimba, a manufacturer of pneumatic, hydraulic and electric motion solutions with an extensive distributor network principally servicing the North American industrial automation market.

Lonmin shares surged after the platinum miner agreed to be taken over by South Africa's Sibanye-Stillwater in an all-share deal that values the group at around £285m.

Market Movers

FTSE 100 (UKX) 7,448.12 -0.65%
FTSE 250 (MCX) 20,006.27 -0.27%
techMARK (TASX) 3,467.75 -0.33%

FTSE 100 - Risers

Land Securities Group (LAND) 978.50p 3.22%
Mondi (MNDI) 1,775.00p 2.96%
Mediclinic International (MDC) 621.50p 2.56%
BT Group (BT.A) 273.85p 2.18%
Smurfit Kappa Group (SKG) 2,380.00p 1.84%
Randgold Resources Ltd. (RRS) 6,920.00p 1.84%
TUI AG Reg Shs (DI) (TUI) 1,433.00p 1.42%
ITV (ITV) 166.30p 1.34%
SEGRO (SGRO) 568.00p 1.34%
Hammerson (HMSO) 531.50p 1.24%

FTSE 100 - Fallers

Standard Life Aberdeen (SLA) 413.80p -3.20%
Convatec Group (CTEC) 203.20p -2.91%
British American Tobacco (BATS) 4,924.50p -2.08%
CRH (CRH) 2,530.00p -2.05%
Standard Chartered (STAN) 759.40p -1.89%
Sky (SKY) 990.00p -1.88%
GlaxoSmithKline (GSK) 1,290.50p -1.79%
Intertek Group (ITRK) 5,020.00p -1.76%
Rolls-Royce Holdings (RR.) 823.00p -1.73%
Whitbread (WTB) 3,825.00p -1.62%

FTSE 250 - Risers

Vectura Group (VEC) 112.00p 7.80%
Domino's Pizza Group (DOM) 338.70p 5.09%
Dixons Carphone (DC.) 190.00p 4.63%
Euromoney Institutional Investor (ERM) 1,214.00p 3.23%
Derwent London (DLN) 3,007.00p 3.16%
IG Group Holdings (IGG) 715.00p 3.03%
Acacia Mining (ACA) 175.00p 2.63%
NewRiver REIT (NRR) 330.50p 2.23%
Great Portland Estates (GPOR) 662.00p 2.16%
Vedanta Resources (VED) 690.00p 2.07%

FTSE 250 - Fallers

Capita (CPI) 407.10p -12.62%
PZ Cussons (PZC) 310.50p -5.28%
Marston's (MARS) 114.10p -3.81%
Serco Group (SRP) 97.70p -3.65%
Provident Financial (PFG) 810.00p -3.63%
Nostrum Oil & Gas (NOG) 305.70p -3.55%
Go-Ahead Group (GOG) 1,490.00p -2.93%
Travis Perkins (TPK) 1,520.00p -2.88%
Mitchells & Butlers (MAB) 260.20p -2.81%
Meggitt (MGGT) 474.30p -2.61%


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US Market Report

US open: Stocks rise ahead of Fed rate decision

Stocks are trading higher ahead of the US central bank's policy announcement later in the day, bolstered by a weaker than expected reading on consumer prices.

At 1708 GMT, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was 0.57% or 139.04 points higher to 24,642.33, alongside a gain of 0.17% or 4.48 points to 2,668.62 on the S&P 500 and a rise of 0.31% or 21.22 points in the Nasdaq Composite.

The rate announcement was due at 1900 GMT, with the press conference - Janet Yellen's last as Fed Chair - scheduled for 1930 GMT, with market participants expecting the Fed to hike rates for the third time in 2018, by 25 basis points.

Konstantinos Anthis at ADS Securities said: "Clearly there is scope for a more cautious tone coming out of the Fed today but the key question is whether this cautiousness finds its way into the forward guidance statement or affects the expectations for the number of rate hikes next year. If Janet Yellen and her colleagues offer a cautious outlook on the economy and acknowledge the challenges the economy is facing, the dollar could sell off today given that the rate hike decision itself is already priced in by market participants."

Earlier, the Department of Labor reported that the 'core' CPI rate advanced at a 0.1% month-on-month clip, leading to a one tenth of a percentage point slip in the year-on-year pace to 1.7% (consensus: 1.8%).

Given rising short-term interest rates and estimates that the neutral real rate of interest was now quite lower than before the financial crisis, economists were understandably a tad more cautious in the wake of Wednesday's weaker than forecast reading on CPI.

Thus, in a note sent to clients, Barclays's Blerina Uruci said: "After returning to positive prints briefly, monthly core goods prices decline again in November and the pace of increase in core services slowed.

"We think that the FOMC will maintain its caution with regards to the inflation trend in recent months and highlight that it is monitoring developments closely. Nevertheless, we think the bar is high for it to deviate from its tightening path right now and maintain our call that a 25bp interest rate increase is likely at today's meeting."

In the background, investors were also mulling news that Democrat Doug Jones won Alabama's Senate election on Tuesday night, defeating Republican Roy Moore, who was backed by Donald Trump. The victory for Jones will reduce the Republican Senate majority to 51-49 from 52-48, prompting fears that it will be harder for the Republicans to push through major overhauls such as tax reform.

In corporate news, drug-maker Eli Lilly laid-out its sales guidance for the full-year 2018, predicting revenues would be in a range between $23.0bn and $23.5bn (consensus: $23.1bn).

Shares of Amgen were also trading on the frontfoot, after it announced a 15% increase in its first quarter 2018 dividend.

To the downside, stock in biotech group Proteostasis Therapeutics was weaker in pre-market trade after announcing late on Tuesday that it plans to sell 7m shares of its common stocks.

Elsewhere, shares of ship builder Nordic American Tankers tumbled after saying it plans to sell $100m shares through a public offering.


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Hargreaves Lansdown

Top of the stocks

Number of Deals Bought

Place EPIC Equity name %
1 XBT Provider AB 3.98
2 XBT Provider AB 2.61
3 SAGA Saga plc 2.47
4 LION Lionsgold Limited 1.79
5 GSK GlaxoSmithKline plc 1.73
6 SMT Scottish Mortgage Investment Trust 1.61
7 VRS Versarien plc 1.57
8 LLOY Lloyds Banking Group plc 1.48
9 PYC Physiomics plc 1.37
10 IQE IQE plc 1.37

Number of Deals Sold

Place EPIC Equity name %
1 XBT Provider AB 3.03
2 LLOY Lloyds Banking Group plc 2.23
3 XBT Provider AB 1.76
4 LION Lionsgold Limited 1.45
5 PYC Physiomics plc 1.34
6 TSCO Tesco plc 1.23
7 SMT Scottish Mortgage Investment Trust 1.22
8 BOO Boohoo.com 1.19
9 GGP Greatland Gold Plc 1.05
10 VRS Versarien plc 1.04

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Broker Tips

Broker tips: Lloyds, Barclays, Entertainment One

Goldman Sachs reiterated its 'sell' recommendation on shares of Lloyds and Barclays, placing both stocks on its list of 'UK Sell Ideas' for 2018.

Analysts at the investment bank pointed to evidence of lower margins on mortgages and intensifying competition on deposits as reflected in the lenders' latest third quarter financials as the main cause of their 'bearishness'.

Those pressures would continue in 2018, they said, as rival HSBC increased its share of the UK mortgage market via increased use of the intermediary channel and as the drawing window for the Term Funding Scheme closed shut in February.

Making matters worse, the Bank of England's latest set of stress tests showed the lender now had reduced headroom than in 2016 and the 2018 edition of the stress tests would include a roughly 200 basis point D-SIB buffer.

As a result, Goldman said: "Investors are therefore increasingly focused on whether the group will be permitted to continue operating in line with its current target capital level (a c.13% CET1 ratio). In our view, upward pressure on capital could in turn impact the group's potential for dividend growth."


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