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Dec 29, 2017

Evening Euro Markets Bulletin

 
ADVFN III Evening Euro Markets Bulletin
Daily world financial news Friday, 29 December 2017 20:15:25
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Stocks for your stocking this Christmas

As it’s the season for sharing Ian Forrest, investment research analyst at The Share Centre, comments on five companies that ‘yule’ likely see prosper as a result of the festive season.  Capital at risk.

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London Market Report
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London close: Shares hold on to record highs

London stocks finished the session little changed as strength in miners helped to offset the positive tone in the pound, although trading volumes and news were light heading into the new year.

The FTSE 100 edged up 0.03% to 7,622.88, having earlier breached Wednesday's all-time intra-day high of 7,632.71.

Meanwhile, the pound was down 0.18% against the euro at 1.1250 and up 0.31% versus the dollar at 1.3444.

Analyst Henry Croft at Accendo Markets said: "The US dollar extending its sell-off, falling to its lowest level since 1 December, has aided the commodities rally, while growth barometer copper trading a fresh four-year high has sparked confidence that global economic growth will be broadly positive in 2018."

A survey released earlier by the British Confederation of Industry showed that manufacturers, service sector companies and retailers reported the sharpest rise in output in two years in December.

The survey of 642 companies across the three sectors showed growth in the private sector in the three months to December rose to a balance of 19% from a balance of 6% in the three months to November and marking its highest reading since December 2015.

Anna Leach, head of economic intelligence at the CBI, said: "Private sector firms are enjoying healthy activity levels, but mediocre expectations for growth underline the ongoing challenges facing companies. Persistent cost pressures will ensure that inflation remains at a high level, perpetuating the squeeze on household spending."

Also on Thursday, industry figures showed remortgaging fuelled increased mortgage lending in October but businesses were reluctant to borrow amid economic uncertainty.

Gross mortgage borrowing from high street banks was £14.2bn in October - 16% higher than a year earlier, figures from trade association UK Finance showed.

House purchase mortgage approvals of 40,488 were down 3% from October 2016 and were below the recent average though there were more first-time buyers, UK Finance said.

By contrast, remortgage approvals of 34,036 were 37% higher than a year ago and up on the 27,163 average over the past six months.

The Bank of England's clear signal that it would increase interest rates in November triggered a wave of remortgaging activity as borrowers sought to secure ultra-low rates on offer by banks.

UK Finance said: "We expect this [trend] to continue in the short - term as our remortgage approvals data shows a large increase of over a third in approvals for October as customers locked in deals ahead of the expected rate rise."

Credit card borrowing increased at an annual rate of 5.1%, slightly weaker than the 5.5% pace a month earlier, as consumers and banks responded to the prospect of higher interest rates and Bank of England warnings about lending. Personal loans and overdrafts fell at an annual rate of 2.7% compared with 2.2% a month earlier, reflecting consumers' increasing use of cards for borrowing.

Mining stocks put in another strong performance as metals prices rallied, with BHP Billiton, Glencore and Anglo American among the top risers.

Elsewhere, Tritax Big Box REIT nudged up as it acquired a national distribution facility at Hickling Road in Cannock, Staffordshire, which is operated and let to Unilever UK for a total consideration of £44.25m.

BGEO Group ticked higher as its real estate subsidiary, m2 Real Estate, signed its first major third-party construction contract, the total value of which is $11.6m.

BT Group fell as its stock went ex-dividend.


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Europe Market Report
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Europe close: Stocks deliver bumper returns for US dollar investors in 2017

European stocks saw a large decline on the last day of trading of 2017, weighed down by another push higher in the single currency as government bond yields diverged again on either side of the Pond, especially out on the euro area's periphery.

By the close of trading, the benchmark Stoxx 600 was off by a very slight 0.36 points to 389.18, helped by an advance in shares of companies in the Basic Resources space, with a gauge for the group jumping 0.83% to 472.79.

Milan's FTSE Mibtel on the other hand was down by 1.21% to 21,853.34 after the country's President, Sergio Mattarela called elections for 4 March, perhaps inadvertently giving traders a firm date to hone in on.

Germany's Dax was also lower, trading down 0.48% to 12,917.64, with a gain of 0.60% in euro/dollar to 1.2010 exerting a drag after readings on consumer prices in the country overshot economists' forecasts.

For 2017 as a whole, the single currency was markedly higher, having kicked the year off from around the 1.05 level in its cross against the US dollar.

Despite that headwind, both the Dax and the Mibtel managed to close the year with gains of roughly 13% each. By way of comparison, in local currency terms the S&P 500 notched up an advance of 20%.

The rather directionless trading on Friday came on the back of another record close on Wall Street overnight, with the Dow Jones making its 71st record high of the year, but a mixed Asian session.

Economic news in the last tarding session of the year was mixed.

Spanish consumer price inflation was an early data point for the region, with a below-forecast reading of 1.3% for December after the previous month's 1.8% mark (consensus: 1.5%), according to INE.

In Germany on the other hand, the rate of advance in harmonised consumer prices slowed by much less than forecast, from 1.8% year-on-year in November to 1.7% (consensus: 1.5%).

Among individual companies, Airbus was down only slightly despite reports that the company could end production of the A380 superjumbo if it does not receive a new order from Emirates. Reports emerged overnight that the Toulouse-headquartered aeroplane maker was drawing up plans to phase out production of the A380, though the company said the claims were "speculation" as talks over new orders were continuing.

More positively, China Aircraft Leasing Group inked a deal to purchase 50 Airbus A320neos at a list price of $5.42bn.

In other news, German carmaker Volkswagen announced it would ask the country's Constitutional court to revoke the appointment of a special auditor to investigate the possible involvement of management in the diesel emissions scandal.


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US Market Report

US open: Dow and S&P 500 hover near record highs on final trading day of 2017

US stocks were little changed in early trade in the final session of the year, although the Dow and the S&P 500 were hovering near record highs in holiday-thinned volumes.

At 1500 GMT, the Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P 500 were flat at 24,832.42 and 2,687.17, respectively, while the Nasdaq was down 0.1% at 6,942.56. On Thursday, the Dow closed at a record for the 71st time this year.

Meanwhile, oil prices were at their highest level since mid-2015 following an unexpected drop in American output and a decline in commercial crude inventories.

Looking back on the last year, FXTM research analyst Lukman Otunuga said: "Market players marched into the trading year adopting a risk-on attitude, amid growing optimism over Donald Trump pushing ahead with a large fiscal spending package. The 'Trump effect' not only elevated global stocks to 19-month highs in January, but also sent the dollar to its highest level in 14 years. In February, the series of pending elections in Europe, ongoing Brexit developments and heightened Trump uncertainties, made political risk a recurrent theme during the first quarter of 2017. Although during the same month Trump made promises of a 'phenomenal' tax plan, the growing threat of him moving forward with the protectionist policies while overlooking the proposed fiscal stimulus, weighed heavily on investor sentiment.

"It was all about Brexit fuelled anxiety and Trump jitters in March, which ultimately supported safe-haven assets such as gold while investors fled to safety. The Federal Reserve moved forward with a 'dovish hike' in the same month which punished the dollar further."

In corporate news, Progenics surged 12% after the US FDA said it will review the company's treatment for a rare type of cancer.

Netflix ticked a touch higher after the company announced plans to bump up the salary of a number of its top executives next year, pointing to the recently-passed US tax bill. Chief content officer Ted Sarandos will earn a $12m base salary in 2018, having earned $1m a year in the last three years.

Shares in Goldman Sachs fell as it emerged it will take a $5bn hit from the US tax reforms that kick in next year.

Apple shares were in the red after the technology giant apologised for deliberately slowing down some of its older iPhones.


Hargreaves Lansdown

Top of the stocks

Number of Deals Bought

Place EPIC Equity name %
1 XBT Provider AB 3.10
2 XBT Provider AB 3.03
3 SXX Sirius Minerals plc 2.59
4 IQE IQE plc 2.32
5 XBT Provider AB 2.01
6 VAL Valirx plc 1.82
7 LION Lionsgold Limited 1.43
8 XBT Provider AB 1.31
9 UKOG UK Oil & Gas Investments plc 1.16
10 SMT Scottish Mortgage Investment Trust 1.05

Number of Deals Sold

Place EPIC Equity name %
1 XBT Provider AB 3.30
2 XBT Provider AB 2.04
3 LLOY Lloyds Banking Group plc 1.75
4 XBT Provider AB 1.54
5 IQE IQE plc 1.23
6 VAL Valirx plc 1.12
7 UKOG UK Oil & Gas Investments plc 1.06
8 SXX Sirius Minerals plc 1.02
9 LION Lionsgold Limited 1.00
10 RMG Royal Mail PLC 0.96

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Broker Tips

Broker tips: Shire, Tullow Oil, Easyjet

Liberum has downgraded Shire to 'hold' from 'buy' and cut the price target to 4,100p from 4,200p, saying the risk/reward is more balanced.

The brokerage noted that since upgrading the stock mid-November on valuation grounds, the shares are up 14% in dollar terms despite better-than-expected competitor haemophilia data and a small pipeline failure on Tuesday, when the company announced that clinical trials for a drug to treat Hunter syndrome in children, SHP609, failed to meet their primary and secondary endpoints.

Liberum had pencilled in around $70m of risk adjusted peak sales for SHP609. Adjusting for the drug trial failure and FX moves - the impact of a stronger pound - Liberum cut its valuation to 4,100p a share, which now implies just 4.5% upside.

"We still believe that, if handled right, the update on the neuroscience strategic review due by year end could be a catalyst for the shares, but with fundamental upside now limited the risk/reward is more balanced."

Tullow Oil shares were boosted by an upgrade from Jefferies as analysts hiked their crude oil price forecasts for 2018, though Cairn Energy was downgraded due to its strong performance of late.

Brent crude will average $63 a barrel in 2018, Jefferies forecast in a pair of Wednesday notes on oil companies, up from its previous $57 expectations, with the WTI forecast upped to $59 per barrel from $54.

Analysts said they are "increasingly confident that the oil market will remain undersupplied through 2018" and that oil inventories will fall to five-year average levels in the third quarter of next year.

"The incremental tightness in the market is more a function of robust demand that, while broad-based, is underpinned by accelerating Chinese growth," they wrote, expecting the market to remain tight.

As a result of these crude price upgrades, forecasts for net asset values across its international exploration and production sector coverage increased on average 15%.

Tullow Oil's successful refinancing without further equity dilution "removes a risk we were concerned about" and the new oil price forecast now suggests $741m free cash flow next year and so lifts Jefferies' target 3% to 180p.

Tullow shares were therefore upgraded to 'hold' from 'underperform'.

 

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