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Mar 25, 2014

Evening Euro Markets Bulletin

 
ADVFN III Evening Euro Markets Bulletin
Daily world financial news Tuesday, 25 March 2014 17:19:46
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London Market Report
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London close: Stimulus hopes drive FTSE higher

- FTSE closes up 84.50 at 6,604.89
- UK CPI falls to 52-month low
- UK house price gains accelerate
- Kingfisher leads gains

techMARK 2,773.82 +0.72%
FTSE 100 6,604.89 +1.30%
FTSE 250 16,153.13 +0.83%

It was a strong finish for the City today on the back of upbeat performances by a number of UK stocks, hopes of stimulus, and following a string of economic data releases.

The FTSE 100 bounced back from a seven-week low, closing up 84.50 points at 6,604.89.

IG Group's Market Analyst, Chris Beauchamp, commented that yesterday's low has been "swiftly forgotten", saying that investors are betting that "China might be about to boost stimulus measures to help counteract a slowing economy".

He continued: "In western eyes, the Communist Party has unfettered power to maintain China's growth rates, so miners are rallying today as risk appetite recovers [...]

"Also helping European equity markets are comments from Deutsche Bundesbank Chief Jens Weidmann, who appears to be keen to do his bit to shore up the situation by hinting that quantitative easing in Europe is not entirely impossible. To hear a German make this comment is a novelty, given their previous intransigence. Perhaps there is hope for some European Central Bank action after all.

"So, the sum of today's situation is talk of stimulus in China, and talk of stimulus in the Eurozone. But, no actual stimulus, and if markets think that talk is the only thing likely to happen, today's rally could easily evaporate."

UK CPI falls to 52-month low in February

The UK´s consumer price index (CPI) registered a rise of 0.5% month-on-month (1.7% year-on-year) in February, according to the Office for National Statistics (ONS).

That followed a reading of 1.9% the month before and marked a 52-month low. Nevertheless, it was exactly in line with the consensus estimate.

Barclays Research said: "All in all, measured wage growth, a slower pace of labour market normalisation than previously, combined with downside input price pressures, are likely to provide some further comfort to the MPC that inflation pressures are not yet building up in the economy despite the recovery gathering speed.

"Such macroeconomic conditions should be consistent with an unchanged loose monetary policy stance in the coming quarters. Our baseline scenario remains that the MPC will hike rates in the second quarter of 2015."

UK house price gains accelerate to 6.8% pace in January

House prices in the UK accelerated their pace of gains in January, to rise by 6.8% when compared with year-ago levels, their fastest since August of 2010, according to ONS.

That compared with a 5.5% rate of increase in the month before.

Meanwhile, loans for home purchase retreated to 47,550 in February, from 49,341 in the month before, according to the British Bankers' Association.

The consensus estimate had been for a reading of 50,000.

In other macro news, the Confederation of British Industry's (CBI) total sales index fell to a reading of 13 per cent in March, after posting 37% in the month before, its distributive trades survey showed.

That was lower than the print of 28% expected by economists. However, sales are expected to bounce back next month. To take note of, Mother's Day and Easter fall later this year, the business lobby explained.

Kingfishers climbs on cash return plans

Kingfisher, Europe's largest home improvement retailer, rose strongly after it said it would return 200m pounds to shareholders this year and expand into new markets after profits improved by a tenth in the 12 months ended February 1st. The company, which owns B&Q and Screwfix in the UK, said it would embark on a new multi-year programme of additional capital returns.

Miner Anglo American was also higher despite halting operations at its Los Bronces copper project in Chile due to violent protests by workers. Investec said: "Our analyst would expect only a negligible impact on earnings if this dispute with contractors gets resolved reasonably quickly."

Meanwhile, cruise line operator Carnival fell after it registered flat earnings per share during the first quarter of its fiscal year. Net revenue yields during the period fell by 2.1% in comparison with 2013, but were ahead of the company´s guidance for a drop of 3-4%.

Royal Mail was one of the other few stocks on the FTSE 100 in the red after saying it is to begin talks with its unions about cutting a net 1,300 back office jobs in order to save £50m per year from 2016 onwards.

On the second tier, online gaming group 888 rose on the back of a strong performance and a highly cash generative year, which prompted the proposal of an extra one-off dividend of 7.0 cents per share on top of a final dividend of 4.0 cents.

Elsewhere, administrators have been appointed at pawn broker Albemarle & Bond - only three years ago a darling of the stock market - after its lenders refused to support its turnaround plan.


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FTSE 100 - Risers
Kingfisher (KGF) 430.80p +5.98%
SABMiller (SAB) 2,978.00p +5.04%
Anglo American (AAL) 1,498.00p +4.03%
easyJet (EZJ) 1,692.00p +3.68%
Travis Perkins (TPK) 1,862.00p +3.33%
Wolseley (WOS) 3,412.00p +3.27%
Petrofac Ltd. (PFC) 1,434.00p +3.02%
Rio Tinto (RIO) 3,283.00p +2.95%
Fresnillo (FRES) 876.00p +2.82%
Ashtead Group (AHT) 953.50p +2.80%

FTSE 100 - Fallers
Carnival (CCL) 2,343.00p -4.60%
Royal Mail (RMG) 565.50p -3.17%
British Sky Broadcasting Group (BSY) 927.50p -1.49%
Morrison (Wm) Supermarkets (MRW) 210.30p -0.90%
Sainsbury (J) (SBRY) 310.30p -0.03%

FTSE 250 - Risers
Cairn Energy (CNE) 160.90p +6.34%
888 Holdings (888) 143.20p +6.07%
Partnership Assurance Group (PA.) 124.50p +4.45%
WH Smith (SMWH) 1,173.00p +4.27%
Bwin.party Digital Entertainment (BPTY) 127.30p +4.09%
Evraz (EVR) 67.65p +3.76%
Countrywide (CWD) 675.00p +3.69%
Greencore Group (GNC) 265.00p +3.68%
Keller Group (KLR) 1,057.00p +3.63%
Home Retail Group (HOME) 218.40p +3.51%

FTSE 250 - Fallers
Centamin (DI) (CEY) 53.00p -8.15%
ITE Group (ITE) 202.00p -3.40%
Xaar (XAR) 855.50p -2.89%
Worldwide Healthcare Trust (WWH) 1,288.00p -2.79%
Riverstone Energy Limited (RSE) 871.00p -2.68%
Polymetal International (POLY) 595.00p -2.46%
Oxford Instruments (OXIG) 1,272.00p -2.30%
Computacenter (CCC) 651.00p -2.25%
Kentz Corporation Ltd. (KENZ) 740.00p -1.92%
Foxtons Group (FOXT) 374.00p -1.84%

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Europe Market Report
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Europe close: Better-than-forecast US data boosts stocks

- US data beats consensus forecasts
- German business confidence falls
- UK inflation eases
- Crimea turmoil continues

FTSE 100: 1.30%
DAX: 1.63%
CAC 40: 1.59%
FTSE MIB: 0.95%
IBEX 35: 0.78%
Stoxx 600: 1.29%

European stocks gained following the release of better-than-expected US consumer confidence and housing data.

The Conference Board's US consumer confidence index rose to 82.3 in March from 78.3 in February, beating the consensus estimate of 78.5.

Capital Economics said the rebound in confidence reflects "mainly a reversal of the weather effects from a month ago".

Another report in the US showed new home sales fell by 3.3% in February following a 3.2% increase a month earlier. Despite the fall, it beat predictions by economists for a drop of 4.9%.

Also providing a lift to stocks today were resource stocks, including Anglo American, BHP Billiton and Rio Tinto, as recent disappointing data from China raised hopes the People's Bank of China will boost monetary easing.

German business confidence, UK inflation

German business confidence slumped for the first time in five months in March. Ifo Institute's business climate index fell to 110.7 in March from 111.3 in February, surprising analysts who had expected a reading of 110.9.

Elsewhere in the region, Bundesbank President Jens Weidmann said that he didn't completely rule out the possibility of the European Central Bank (ECB) embarking on a new quantitative easing (QE) programme.

Weidmann, a typically hawkish member of the ECB, reportedly told MNI in an interview published on Tuesday that the monetary authority needed to debate further on its next step.

In the UK, the consumer price index (CPI) rose 0.5% month-on-month and 1.7% year-on-year in February, according to the Office for National Statistics (ONS), moving further away from the Bank of England's 2% target.

In January inflation fell 0.6% month-on-month and rose 1.9% year-on-year. The consensus estimate had been for a reading of 0.5% on the month and 1.7% year-on-year.

Crimea

The Group of Seven leaders said they will not attend a planned G8 meeting which was to be held in at Sochi, the Russian site of the Winter Olympics, and will instead hold their own summit in June in Brussels.

It comes after the US and European Union expanded its sanctions over Russia's decision to annex Crimea from Ukraine.

President Vladimir Putin's spokesman, Dmitry Peskov, told Interfax news agency that Moscow was keen to maintain contact with its G8 partners.

"The Russian side continues to be ready to have such contacts at all levels, including the top level. We are interested in such contacts," he said.

Meanwhile Ukraine's acting defence minister, Ihor Tenyukh, today tendered his resignation amid criticism over the way the crisis in Crimea has been handled.

Kingfisher, Luxottica

Kingfisher jumped after reporting a rise in annual adjusted pre-tax profit that beat the consensus forecast.

Luxottica advanced as the world's largest maker of glasses said it will design, develop and sell spectacles that use Google Glass technology.

easyJet moved higher after the European airline raised its guidance for the first half to a pre-tax loss of £55m to £65m from a January estimate for a loss of as much as £90m.

Royal Mail declined after the UK postal service said it plans to cut about 1,600 jobs.

PostNL surged after JP Morgan upgraded its rating on the Dutch postal company to 'overweight' from 'neutral'.

Baloise gained after the Swiss insurer unexpectedly increased its dividend.

The euro fell 0.25% to $1.3804.

Brent crude futures rose $0.345 to $107.180 per barrel, according to the ICE.


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US Market Report

US open: Stocks rise as consumer confidence improves

- Consumer confidence beats forecasts
- Housing data comes in mixed
- Carnival breaks even in Q1
- Disney gains on Makers Studio buy

Dow Jones: 0.67%
Nasdaq: 1.05%
S&P 500: 0.68%

US stocks advanced on Tuesday despite mixed economic figures from the housing market as data showed a larger-than-expected rise in consumer confidence.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P 500 both gained 0.7% in early trading, while the Nasdaq jumped 1.1%.

Investors were also reacting to comments from Charles Plosser, head of the Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank, who threw his weight behind remarks from Fed Chair Janet Yellen who last week sparked an equity sell-off with her guidance for interest rates.

Plosser said that Yellen's guidance for the first rate hike coming around six months after quantitative easing ends "wasn't a wildly unexpected timeframe". He said that the risk of stock market volatility could be one of the "unintended consequences" of Fed policy as it ends its stimulus programme.

The Fed member also said he expects short-term interest rates to rise to 3% by the end of 2015 and reach 4% by the end of 2016, but noted that his forecasts were higher than most of his colleagues.

Housing data mixed, consumer confidence

New home sales in the States fell by 3.3% to an annual rate of 440,000 in February, a five-month low, retreating from a one-year high of 455,000 in January. The consensus estimate was for a smaller decline to 445,000.

The S&P/Case-Shiller composite house price index of 20 major US cities rose by 0.85% in January, up from a 0.74% gain in December and ahead of the consensus forecast for an increase of 0.6%. The 13.2% annual growth, however, came in slightly below expectations.

The FHFA's own home price index for January increased at a month-on-month rate of 0.5%, down from 0.7% previously and below estimates.

Meanwhile, the US consumer confidence index jumped from a revised 78.3 to 82.3 in March, well ahead of the consensus estimate of 78.5.

Carnival drops after flat Q1

Cruise operator Carnival dropped after saying it broke even in the first quarter, posting earnings per share of 0 cents, compared with 8.0 cents the year before. Net revenue yields declined by 2.1%, though this was better than the company guidance for a 3-4% decline.

Walt Disney advanced after the media and entertainment company agreed to buy Maker Studios for at least $500m. This consideration could rise by a further $450m if certain operating goals are met.

Semiconductor maker Himax Technologies sunk after Bank of America Merrill Lynch cut its rating on the stock to 'underperform'.


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Broker Tips

Broker tips: Royal Mail, Wolseley, easyJet...

Shore Capital has kept a 'buy' stance on postal services group Royal Mail after the company announced redundancies as part of its so-called 'Efficiency Programme'.

Shore Capital Analyst Robin Speakman said: "We believe that the context on of these additional redundancies should be noted, being amongst a total UK core network of some 140,000+ staff and against a competitive background, and a long-term pay agreement with the Communications Workers Union."

Panmure Gordon expects to reduce its profit forecasts for Wolseley after the builder's merchant boosted half-year profits and hiked its dividend by a quarter. It said it was keeping its target of 3,620p on Wolseley and its 'hold' recommendation for now.

Panmure said it was likely to reduce modestly its earnings per share assumptions due to foreign exchange headwinds. It also highlighted Wolseley's comment that like-for-like sales growth for the full year was expected to be closer to 4% against the broker's current assumption of about 5.5%.

Analysts at Credit Suisse have lifted their price target on shares of easyJet to 2,021p from 1,988p following the budget airline's improved guidance for the first half of 2014, while reiterating their 'outperform' recommendation on the shares.

"We continue to see easyJet as a multi-year value proposition", the broker said, adding that the company should be able to capitalise on attractive medium term volume and pricing opportunities.

UBS has hiked its target for Next by nearly a quarter from 5,650p to 7,000p after the High Street retailer raised its guidance for the current financial year.

The bank kept a 'neutral' rating on the stock, saying that the shares trade at 17 times earnings for the 2014 calendar year, a modest premium to the sector and well ahead of the stock's long-term average.

Numis Securities has reiterated its 'buy' recommendation for online gambling group 888 Holdings, hailing the company's cash generation after its special dividend for 2013.

"With the shares on undemanding valuation multiples and an attractive dividend yield (even on the basis of the regular dividend alone), we reiterate our 'buy' rating and 220p price target," the broker said.

 

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