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Mar 3, 2014

Evening Euro Markets Bulletin

 
ADVFN III Evening Euro Markets Bulletin
Daily world financial news Monday, 03 March 2014 17:16:42
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London Market Report
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London close: Crisis in Ukraine ensures poor finish for stocks

 

- FTSE ends 101 points lower at 6,708
- Ukraine crisis hits markets across globe
- Chinese data weighs heavy
- UK, US, Eurozone PMI readings all rise

techMARK 2,852.19 -1.81%
FTSE 100 6,708.35 -1.49%
FTSE 250 16,374.84 -2.10%

It was a bad start to the week for UK stocks, which plunged on the back of concerns shared across the globe about the increasingly fraught situation in Ukraine.

The FTSE 100 ended the session 101.35 points lower at 6,708.35.

The crisis in Ukraine stepped up a gear over the weekend as Moscow increased its military presence in the Crimea region of the Black Sea. The move has been condemned by the G7 who labelled it as a "violation of Ukraine's sovereignty", prompting calls for potential trade sanctions and visa restrictions against Russia in retaliation.

The impact on the City was clear, with every sector on the UK stock market either flat or registering losses as investors scaled back risk appetite.

Disappointing data from China also weighed on market sentiment today after figures showed that manufacturing activity contracted for the second straight month. The HSBC/Markit manufacturing purchasing managers’ index fell from 49.5 to 48.5 in February, although this was in line with expectations.

“Mining companies have been hit hard by the report that manufacturing in China did in fact drop to a seven-month low. A cooling off in home building will make matters worse for the mineral extractors,” said David Madden, Market Analyst at IG.

Busy day for UK macro

The session was also a heavy one for UK data releases, with Markit’s UK manufacturing sector Purchasing Managers’ Index  showing a rise to a level of 56.9 in February from a reading of 56.6 in the month before, signalling improved operating conditions for the 11th month running. The consensus estimate had been for a reading of 56.5.

Meanwhile, retail sales dropped in February as bad weather kept shoppers off the high street, according to figures from tax and accountancy firm BDO. Overall like-for-like sales among mid-market retailers dropped by 0.9% in February, according to figures in BDO’s High Street Sales Tracker.

The UK’s money supply expanded by 0.3% over the month during January, according to the Bank of England. Lending to individuals rose by £2.1bn during that same month or 0.1% month-on-month (1.4% year-on-year).

In other news, house prices in the UK increased by 0.3% month-on-month in January, or at their slowest for six months, as seasonal factors eased the upward pressure on prices, according to property website Hometrack.

Positive PMI readings for both Eurozone and US

The Eurozone’s purchasing managers’ index (PMI) for manufacturing rose to 53.2 in February from 53 in January, surprising analysts who had expected the reading to remain unchanged. A level above 50 signals expansion.

Meanwhile, Markit's purchasing managers' index (PMI) for the US manufacturing sector rose to 57.1 in February from 53.7 in the month before. That was clearly above the preliminary or ‘flash’ estimate of 56.7.

In other US data, personal income and spending rose by 0.3% and 0.4% month-on-month in January, while construction spending rose by 0.1% in January to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $943.1bn, following a 0.1% increase the month before. This was much better than the 0.5% decline expected by analysts.

Majority of stocks in red as risk appetite weakens

The developments in Ukraine saw investors flee towards safe-haven assets, such as gold and silver, today, pushing the share prices of precious metal producers Randgold and Fresnillo higher - although these were the only two stocks in positive territory by mid-afternoon.

Randgold also benefitted from Citi's decision to raise its target from 4,897p to 4,934p.

William Hill retreated from Friday's gains which saw it move higher despite the fact its annual pre-tax profit fell 6% to £257m as the gaming company invested heavily in it its online offering.

A target reduction from Citi - from 100p to 96p - helped push RSA Insurance into the red.

On the second tier, ITE Group plunged after both Canaccord Genuity and Westhouse Securities cut their ratings on the stock, to 'hold' from 'buy' and to 'neutral' from 'add', respectively.

Engineering specialist Keller was also lower after cautioning that most of its European markets "are expected to remain subdued and we anticipate that the current uncertain market conditions in Australia will continue for some time".


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FTSE 100 - Risers
Randgold Resources Ltd. (RRS) 4,953.00p +4.34%
Fresnillo (FRES) 970.00p +1.94%
Pearson (PSON) 1,023.00p +0.99%
Intertek Group (ITRK) 2,970.00p +0.99%
Rolls-Royce Holdings (RR.) 1,000.00p +0.10%
United Utilities Group (UU.) 780.00p +0.06%

FTSE 100 - Fallers
William Hill (WMH) 378.50p -4.80%
Schroders (SDR) 2,589.00p -4.57%
Aberdeen Asset Management (ADN) 373.70p -4.33%
WPP (WPP) 1,254.00p -4.13%
RSA Insurance Group (RSA) 93.55p -3.80%
Anglo American (AAL) 1,478.50p -3.43%
Ashtead Group (AHT) 846.00p -3.42%
Carnival (CCL) 2,382.00p -3.29%
International Consolidated Airlines Group SA (CDI) (IAG) 422.80p -3.25%
GKN (GKN) 393.00p -3.13%

FTSE 250 - Risers
African Barrick Gold (ABG) 295.30p +5.01%
NMC Health (NMC) 478.50p +2.90%
Amlin (AML) 462.40p +2.78%
Hellermanntyton Group (HTY) 322.70p +2.57%
Centamin (DI) (CEY) 56.10p +2.00%
Electra Private Equity (ELTA) 2,775.00p +0.91%
Home Retail Group (HOME) 197.70p +0.76%
Grafton Group Units (GFTU) 665.00p +0.76%
Bodycote (BOY) 761.50p +0.73%
Homeserve (HSV) 332.00p +0.64%

FTSE 250 - Fallers
ITE Group (ITE) 244.80p -13.13%
Evraz (EVR) 61.15p -12.71%
Bank of Georgia Holdings (BGEO) 2,050.00p -11.64%
Polymetal International (POLY) 560.50p -11.52%
Keller Group (KLR) 1,156.00p -8.98%
Ferrexpo (FXPO) 141.40p -7.58%
Kenmare Resources (KMR) 14.95p -6.56%
Redrow (RDW) 320.90p -6.11%
Vesuvius (VSVS) 442.10p -5.68%
Jupiter Fund Management (JUP) 413.50p -5.33%


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Europe Market Report
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Europe close: Ukraine turmoil sends stocks sliding

- Ukraine crisis hurts global stocks
- Eurozone manufacturing activity rises
- IMF urges ECB to take action on jobs and inflation

FTSE 100: -1.49%
DAX: -3.44%
CAC 40: -2.66%
FTSE MIB: -3.34%
IBEX 35: -2.25%
Stoxx 600: -2.26%

European stocks declined the most in more than a month as investors deserted riskier assets amid rising geopolitical tensions in Ukraine.

Russian President Vladimir Putin has won parliamentary approval to send troops to invade Ukraine's Crimea region.

US President Barack Obama and German Chancellor Angela Merkel are among the leaders warning Russia of the consequences of military conflict.

A Ukrainian Defence Ministry official said Russia's Black Sea fleet had given Ukrainian forces in Crimea until 03:00 GMT on Tuesday to surrender or face a military assault, Interfax news agency reported.

The political turmoil began after Russian-backed Viktor Yanukovych was ousted as President of Ukraine following clashes with protesters in Kiev which left at least 82 dead.

Manufacturing data

The Eurozone’s purchasing managers’ index for manufacturing rose to 53.2 in February from 53 in January, surprising analysts who had expected the reading to remain unchanged. A level above 50 signals expansion.

HSBC’s China manufacturing PMI fell to 48.5 in February from 49.5 in January, as expected, fuelling fears of a slowdown in the world’s second biggest economy. It followed an official government report on March 1st which showed the PMI for manufacturing in February dropped to 50.2 from 50.5 the month before.

Markit's purchasing managers' index for the US manufacturing sector rose to 57.1 in February from 53.7 in the month before. That was clearly above the preliminary or ‘flash’ estimate of 56.7.

IMF calls on ECB to take action

International Monetary Fund Managing Director Christine Lagarde has recommended the ECB take additional monetary policies to address high unemployment and low inflation.

In a speech at the Global Forum Spain 2014 today in Bilbao, Spain, she noted that the ECB has already taken strong measures, but insisted that more should be done.

The ECB will hold its next policy meeting on Thursday and consensus is divided on if the central bank will take action and points to a diverse range of possible policy actions.

Credit Suisse believes the ECB will keep its policy on hold, but expects the monetary authority will lower its estimates for inflation this year and next.

Russian companies slump

Companies with exposure to Russia tumbled including the country’s biggest brewer Carlsberg.

Cancer drug maker Roche retreated after a study showed no clinical benefits of its METLung lung cancer treatment.

Nokian Renkaat Oyj dropped as data showed the Nordic region’s largest tyremaker received about 35% of its revenue from the Russian region in 2012.

Bouygues slumped as Chief Executive Officer Martin Bouygues met with French President Francois Hollande to seek government support for a purchase of SFR, according to Le Journal du Dimanche.

Metro was lower as Germany’s biggest retailer said it plans to proceed with an initial public offering of its Russian cash and carry business to raise money for expansion.

The euro fell 0.23% to $1.3770.

Brent crude futures rose $2.092 to $111.400 per barrel, according to data from the ICE.


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US Market Report

US open: Ukraine crisis hits stocks, S&P 500 retreats from record

- S&P 500 pulls back from record high
- Russia steps up presence in Crimea region
- US condemns action in Russia
- US data comes in ahead of forecasts

Dow Jones: -0.95%
Nasdaq: -0.97%
S&P 500: -0.84%

US stocks slipped on Monday morning in New York, tracking global equity indices lower as investors fled from riskier assets in the face of rising geopolitical tensions in Ukraine.

Despite US economic data coming in largely better than expected, the S&P 500 fell 0.8% in morning trade, pulling back from the record high of 1,859.53 reached on Friday following a 4.3% gain for the month of February. The Dow Jones Industrial was 1% lower, registering triple-digit losses, following a 3% increase last month.

“Risk aversion is rife in the markets on Monday, as the Ukraine crisis escalated further prompting investors to rebalance their portfolios away from stocks and towards commodities and other safe haven assets,” said Market Analyst Craig Erlam from Alpari.

The crisis in Ukraine stepped up a gear over the weekend as Moscow stepped up its military presence in the Crimea region of the Black Sea. The move has been condemned by Russia's G8 partners who labelled it as a "violation of Ukraine's sovereignty".

US Secretary of State John Kerry, who is travelling to Ukraine today, released a statement on Saturday saying that unless Russia takes immediate and concrete steps to "de-escalate" tensions, "the effect on US-Russian relations and on Russia’s international standing will be profound".

US data beats expectations

Markit's purchasing managers' index (PMI) for the US manufacturing sector rose to 57.1 in February from 53.7 in the month before. That was clearly above the preliminary or ‘flash’ estimate of 56.7.

According to Chris Williamson, Chief Economist at Markit, the final PMI reading signalled one of the largest monthly improvements in manufacturing for almost four years, reflecting a temporary rebound after supply chains and production had been disrupted by severe weather.

The ISM’s more closely-watched manufacturing PMI rose from 51.3 to 53.2, ahead of the 52 forecast.

Personal income and spending rose by 0.3% and 0.4% month-on-month in January, according to the latest figures from the US Department of Commerce.

Construction spending rose by 0.1% in January to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $943.1bn, following a 0.1% increase the month before. This was much better than the 0.5% decline expected by analysts.

Blue chips fall, precious metal miners rise

Heavyweight industrial stocks and financials were among the worst performers this morning with General Electric, Boeing, Goldman Sachs and Bank of America all trading in the red.

Companies exposed to Russia were out of favour, including Yandex, a US-listed online search engine operating in the country.

Gold mining stocks were faring a little better as the investors fled to safe-haven assets such as the precious metal amid the wider market sell-off. Newmont Mining, Freeport-McMoRan, Yamana Gold and Barrick Gold were also making decent gains.

Tyco International gained after it agreed to sell its fire and security unit in South Korea to Carlyle Group for about $1.93bn.


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Brokers Tips

GKN, ITE Group, Kazakhmys, Dunelm

UBS has downgraded its rating for aerospace, automotive and land systems engineer GKN from ‘buy’ to ‘neutral’ after cutting its forecasts due to foreign exchange headwinds.

Following GKN’s 2013 results released last week, UBS has cut its earnings per share forecasts for 2014 and 2015 by 10% and 13%, respectively. “Most of the downgrade is due to the sharp increase in the value of sterling versus every major currency that GKN has translation exposure to,” the bank said.

Canaccord Genuity has downgraded its rating for exhibitions and conferences organiser ITE Group from ‘buy’ to ‘hold’, raising concerns about profit forecasts given the recent weakness of the rouble amid increasing tensions between Russia and Ukraine.

Analyst Simon Davies said: “At this stage, ITE’s events in Ukraine are still taking place, and the impact will likely be more an issue for FY15. Of greater concern, however, is the potential response from the international community on Russia, where ITE generates 65% of group profits.”

Westhouse Securities has lifted its recommendation for Kazakhmys from ‘neutral’ to ‘add’, hailing the copper miner’s restructuring plans announced alongside its better-than-expected annual results.

They have raised their target for the stock to 355p. “While this is a significant re-rating from our previous 235p target, we think it reflects the substantial benefits to be derived from the proposed transactions,” they said.

Growth prospects at homeware retailer Dunelm are ‘under-valued’, according to Jefferies which has initiated coverage on the stock with a ‘buy’ rating and 1,150p target.

“Consensus forecasts are for real personal disposable income to grow circa 2% in 2014 and 2015 and mortgage approvals are growing at over 30% a year. Both of these trends bode well for household goods sales generally, and particularly for Dunelm, as the UK's specialist homewares market leader,” Jefferies said.

 

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