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Mar 17, 2014

Evening Euro Markets Bulletin

Evening Euro Markets Bulletin
 
ADVFN III Evening Euro Markets Bulletin
Daily world financial news Monday, 17 March 2014 17:32:45
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London Market Report
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London close: Strong performance by housebuilders lifts FTSE

- FTSE closes up 40.46 at 6,568.35
- Help to Buy extended, Persimmon leads gains
- Crimea votes to rejoin Russia, travel bans imposed

techMARK 2,796.14 +1.11%
FTSE 100 6,568.35 +0.62%
FTSE 250 16,297.38 +1.07%

The City ended today's session in a buoyant mood, lifted by a strong performance amongst housebuilders on news of the 'Help to Buy' extension.

FTSE 100 closed up 40.46 points at 6,568.35.

The government's Help-to-Buy scheme will be extended to 2020, at a cost of £6bn, Chancellor George Osborne announced during a debate on the BBC's 'The Andrew Marr Show'.

Measures to help the housing sector were expected when the Chancellor unveils his 2014 Budget on Wednesday.

In related news, asking prices for homes in the UK rose by 1.6% month-on-month in March, to hit a new record high of £255,962, according to property website Rightmove. The number of properties on sale grew by 114,996, making for a gain of 3.4% over the previous month.

"The mass property market is starting to unlock after years of being handcuffed by fragile consumer confidence and a lack of low-deposit mortgages," claimed Miles Shipside, Rightmove Director and housing market analyst.

Shopper numbers in February drop at worst rate since March 2013

Bad weather and a fresh wave of belt-tightening after the New Year sales kept shoppers off the UK High Street last month, dealing another blow to the fragile economic recovery.

The number of shoppers in February fell 2.9% against the same month a year ago, when numbers increased by 2.7%, according to the British Retail Consortium and retail researchers Springboard.

Crimea votes to rejoin Russia

Turning the focus outside of the UK, an overwhelming majority of Crimeans voted in a referendum on Sunday to rejoin Russia, even while the US and Europe promised not to recognise the outcome.

Approximately 96% of the population of Crimea voted to separate from the Ukraine and join the Russian Federation with only about 3.5% having chosen to remain part of the country with more autonomy. No option was given to remain a part of the Ukraine with the constitution unaltered.

The US already officially declared the referendum to be illegal and President Barack Obama promised that the vote would never be recognised by the US or the international community.

Both the EU and the US have imposed travel bans and asset freezes against nearly two dozen officials from the Russian Federation and Ukraine.

The initial market reaction has been calm, with analysts at RBS pointing out how only 3% of European exports have Russia as their final destination. Russia does supply a third of Europe's oil and gas - 55% of the gas exported to the EU flows through Ukrainian territory - but judging by the calm in markets, expectations seem to be that disruptions will be avoided.

Over in China, the central bank doubled its limit on yuan trading against the dollar, meaning it can trade as much as 2% of the daily bank reference rate, rather an 1%. It said now was the "appropriate time" and part of its "plans for gradual reform".

Persimmon lifted by 'Help to Buy' extension

Housebuilder Persimmon was in the top spot after UK Chancellor George Osborne announced that he is extending the 'Help to Buy' mortgage guarantee scheme by a further four years. The group's sector peers and number of industry related companies were also seen putting in a strong performance.

Mining stocks also did well with Glencore Xstrata among the highest risers on the back of speculation that it is close to announcing a multi-billion dollar transaction to sell its Las Bambas mine.

DIY retailer Kingfisher was given a lift by a target upgrade from Credit Suisse.

Meanwhile, Diageo, the drinks giant, was driven lower in part by a Motley Fool article which cited the slide in emerging markets and its waning cash pile as two "resounding reasons" not to invest in the stock.

Supermarket giant Tesco was in the red after Bank of America Merrill Lynch cut its rating on the shares from 'neutral' to 'underperform'. Over the weekend, the Sunday Telegraph's Questor column also advised investors to sell.

Sector peer Sainsbury was also lower ahead of a trading update due out this week. The group is expected to post 3% drop in like-for-like quarterly revenue, having posted a consecutive increase for the past 36 quarters.


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FTSE 100 - Risers
Sports Direct International (SPD) 858.50p +4.06%
Persimmon (PSN) 1,361.00p +3.66%
Coca-Cola HBC AG (CDI) (CCH) 1,485.00p +3.63%
RSA Insurance Group (RSA) 96.50p +3.54%
Glencore Xstrata (GLEN) 306.60p +3.23%
Kingfisher (KGF) 414.10p +3.09%
G4S (GFS) 236.20p +2.96%
Anglo American (AAL) 1,461.50p +2.71%
London Stock Exchange Group (LSE) 1,950.00p +2.52%
Ashtead Group (AHT) 922.50p +2.50%

FTSE 100 - Fallers
Diageo (DGE) 1,780.00p -2.25%
Tesco (TSCO) 299.70p -1.32%
British American Tobacco (BATS) 3,200.50p -0.73%
Sainsbury (J) (SBRY) 311.40p -0.70%
Reckitt Benckiser Group (RB.) 4,817.00p -0.62%
Randgold Resources Ltd. (RRS) 4,969.00p -0.54%
Capita (CPI) 1,105.00p -0.36%
Morrison (Wm) Supermarkets (MRW) 207.40p -0.29%
Royal Dutch Shell 'B' (RDSB) 2,286.00p -0.26%
Tullow Oil (TLW) 775.50p -0.19%

FTSE 250 - Risers
Kenmare Resources (KMR) 15.00p +10.29%
Polymetal International (POLY) 622.00p +9.22%
Bovis Homes Group (BVS) 895.00p +4.68%
Home Retail Group (HOME) 217.60p +4.41%
Crest Nicholson Holdings (CRST) 381.00p +4.33%
Grainger (GRI) 240.20p +4.12%
Xaar (XAR) 997.50p +3.96%
TalkTalk Telecom Group (TALK) 312.90p +3.88%
Micro Focus International (MCRO) 804.00p +3.88%
Entertainment One Limited (ETO) 347.00p +3.86%

FTSE 250 - Fallers
Genus (GNS) 1,049.00p -3.50%
Kazakhmys (KAZ) 255.10p -3.37%
Essar Energy (ESSR) 64.35p -3.31%
CSR (CSR) 718.00p -2.25%
Imagination Technologies Group (IMG) 159.70p -1.90%
ITE Group (ITE) 219.90p -1.70%
Cranswick (CWK) 1,214.00p -1.54%
IP Group (IPO) 206.30p -1.24%
Hellermanntyton Group (HTY) 320.50p -1.23%
Jardine Lloyd Thompson Group (JLT) 1,053.00p -1.22%

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Europe Market Report
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Europe close: M&A activity offsets Ukraine concerns

- M&A activity boosts stocks
- Eurozone inflation revised lower
- US industrial and manufacturing data out
- US and EU impose sanctions on Ukraine and Russia

FTSE 100: 0.62%
DAX: 1.37%
CAC 40: 1.32%
FTSE MIB: 2.52%
IBEX 35: 1.66%
Stoxx 600: 1.12%

European stocks extended gains as a pick-up in merger and acquisition (M&A) activity offset concerns over falling Eurozone inflation and geopolitical tensions in Russia and Ukraine.

The announcement this morning of several M&As, including from Vodafone, RWE and Allianz, lifted sentiment in markets.

Vodafone rallied as the telecommunications company agreed to buy Spanish cable operator Grupo Corporativo Ono SA.

RWE was higher after L1 Energy agreed to spend €5.1bn on the utility's Dea division.

Allianz SE jumped after the insurer said it was buying assets from Italy's Unipol Gruppo Finanziario SpA.

Eurozone inflation revised downwards

The preliminary estimate for consumer price inflation in the Eurozone in February has been revised slightly lower.

The region's consumer price index (CPI) is now estimated to have risen by 0.7% on the year, compared to the 0.8% increase initially calculated and the 0.8% advance seen in January, updated figures from Eurostat revealed.

The month-on-month rate of change was also revised down, to show a gain of 0.3% versus the previous estimate of 0.4%.

The European Central Bank (ECB), which is targeting inflation of just under 2%, is likely to face more pressure to enact greater measures to tackle falling prices.

US industrial and manufacturing data

US industrial figures showed output rose 0.6% in February, compared to a revised 0.2% drop in January and the forecast for a 0.2% rise.

Another report showed manufacturing production in the US rose in February by 0.8% in February following a revised 0.9% slump in the prior month.

A separate gauge of manufacturing in the New York area rose less than forecast last month, climbing to 5.61 from 4.48. Analysts had predicted 6.50.

US and EU impose sanctions on Ukraine and Russia

The European Union (EU) and US have imposed travel bans and asset freezes against nearly two dozen officials from the Russian Federation and Ukraine.

This is in response to Sunday's referendum in the breakaway region of Crimea, which saw 97% of voters purportedly cast their ballots in favour of leaving Ukraine to re-join Russia.

Initial market reaction has been calm, with analysts at RBS pointing out how only 3% of European exports have Russia as their final destination. Russia supplies a third of Europe's oil and gas - 55% of the gas exported to the EU flows through Ukrainian territory - but markets seem to have shrugged off the news on expectations that disruptions will be avoided.

Porsche, Siemens

Porsche Automobil Holdings climbed after a German court dismissed a lawsuit brought by hedge funds against the luxury carmaker.

Siemens AG surged after Bank of America Corp. upgraded Europe's largest engineering company to 'buy' from 'neutral'.

UK housebuilders including Persimmon, Barratt Developments and Taylor Wimpey advanced after UK Chancellor George Osborne announced that he will extend the Help-to-Buy stimulus programme until 2020 from its current expiry date of April 2016.

Pirelli & C. SpA slumped after saying that OAO Rosneft, Russia's biggest oil producer, has become its largest investor.

Linde AG declined after the producer of industrial gases reported fourth-quarter profit that missed analysts' estimates.

The euro rose 0.08% to $1.3925.

Brent crude futures fell $1.444 to $106.670 per barrel, according to the ICE.


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US Market Report

US open: Stocks gain after Crimea vote, industrial production data

- Crimea vote to rejoin Russia
- EU, US sanction officials
- US industrial production beats forecasts

Dow Jones: 1.14%
Nasdaq: 1.14%
S&P 500: 0.74%

US stocks opened with strong gains on Monday as investors shrugged off rising geopolitical pressures after Crimea's resounding vote to rejoin the Russian Federation.

Tensions between Moscow and the West have escalated in the aftermath of the Crimea referendum at the weekend with both European Union and US leaders sanctioning several Russian and Ukrainian officials in retaliation to what they see as an unconstitutional vote.

Nevertheless, the S&P 500 was 0.7% higher at 1,860 shortly after the opening bell, after having fallen 2% last week.

"For now, the markets are happy to push higher, especially in the absence of anything else weighing on sentiment. The lack of economic data is actually working in the markets favour to an extent today," said Market Analyst Craig Erlam from Alpari.

"The last week or so has been fairly negative, so a lack of developments in Crimea and poor economic data, which we've had an abundance of so far this year, is allowing for a bit of a correction."

The only major piece of economic data for release today was US industrial production figures which showed that output rose 0.6% in February.

This compared with a revised 0.2% fall in January and ahead of the 0.2% growth expected, which "suggests that the economy is waking up after hibernating during the past few months of unusually bad weather," according to Senior US Economist Paul Dales from Capital Economics.

The degree of capacity utilisation rose to 78.8% from 78.5% the previous month, ahead of the consensus estimate of 78.6%.

In other news, the so-called Empire State manufacturing index rose from 4.48 to 5.61 in March but came in under the 6.50 forecast.

Hertz, Keurig Green Mountain

Car hire firm Hertz Global Holdings climbed after the Financial Times reported that the company will spin off its equipment-rentals unit in a deal expected to value the unit at around $4.5bn.

Keurig Green Mountain advanced after S&P Dow Jones Indices said the coffee maker will join its benchmark index for US stocks.

Intercept Pharmaceuticals declined after the drug maker said "serious adverse events" occurred in a drug trial for its liver-disease treatment.

Yahoo! rebounded from losses on March 14th following reports Chinese e-commerce company Alibaba Group Holding, in which it holds a 24% stake, may file for an initial public offering in the US as soon as next month.

The yield on a benchmark 10-year US Treasury was up one basis point at 2.68%.

West Texas crude futures were down 0.22% at $98.67 a barrel on the NYMEX.


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Broker Tips

Broker tips: Vodafone, Shell, Reed Elsevier...

Vodafone's 7.2bn-euro offer for Spanish telecoms group Ono is a "vital strategic move", according to Jefferies, which said that a stabilisation of the UK group's business in Spain is now possible.

"The clear positive from this morning […] is that VOD is addressing a key strategic weakness proactively, delivering on management's commitment to be credible in fibre convergence in key markets on a five-year view," the broker said.

Credit Suisse has lifted its target for oil major Royal Dutch Shell from 2,350p to 2,450p and reiterated an 'outperform' rating following the company's strategic update announced last week.

"Following a review of our model, our operating cash flow estimates rise for the period beyond 2016; we previously have been somewhat too conservative on a number of regions/areas in Upstream/Integrated Gas (e.g. Canada, Europe, liquefied natural gas), while we think Oil Products (now adjusted for Australia Downstream) should improve more," the bank said.

Berenberg has downgraded its rating for publishing and information services group Reed Elsevier from 'buy' to 'hold', saying that while it has kept a positive stance on the stock upside is limited.

"Amid warnings from Pearson and WPP, a raging debate around BSkyB, and what looks like the end of upgrades for ITV, Reed Elsevier should retain its appeal for UK investors, although valuation is up with events, we think," the broker said.

Credit Suisse has lifted its target for B&Q owner Kingfisher from 440p to 460p and reiterated its 'outperform' rating, raising hopes for demand amid an improving environment for DIY retail.

Trading at 15.6 times forward earnings, the bank said Kingfisher remains "cheap" relative to the UK retail sector despite increasing evidence that the nine-year downturn in UK DIY is ending.

The recent sell-off in Bank of Georgia shares due to the Ukraine crisis is a good reason to buy the stock, according to Panmure Gordon.

"The shares have fallen 12% from the high of 2,500p on concerns over the Ukraine situation, combined with an attempted placing last week which was pulled […] This is a good buying opportunity," Panmure said.

 

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