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| | US Market | The major U.S. index futures are pointing to a higher opening on Monday, with sentiment suggesting optimism after last week's declines. Crimea opted to break away from Ukraine and join Russia in a referendum held over the weekend. Although the materialization of the event may remove some anxiety surrounding it, traders may still be wary of potential imposition of sanctions against Russia for it infringing on another nation's sovereignty.
The results of the manufacturing survey by the New York Federal Reserve released earlier today a slower than expected rate of expansion, although the pace picked up from the previous month. Traders may also seek bargains even as they remain apprehensive concerning data on industrial production and homebuilder confidence reading.
U.S. stocks turned lower in the week ended March 14th, with soft Chinese data and uncertainty about the situation in Ukraine weighing on the markets.
Last Monday, the major averages closed modestly lower, hit by concerns about slowing growth in China following the release of weak Chinese trade data. Weakness continued into Tuesday's session, with the averages showing a lack of direction before closing moderately lower amid the absence of any major catalysts.
The major averages closed mixed on Wednesday amid continued uncertainty. With Chinese data continuing to reveal softness, the major averages closed notably lower on Thursday. The return of geopolitical concerns ahead of the referendum in Crimea generated more weakness on Friday, and the averages closed modestly lower.
For the week ended March 14th, the Dow Industrials and the Nasdaq Composite Index fell 2.35 percent and 2.09 percent, respectively, while the S&P 500 Index slid 1.97 percent.
Among the sector indexes, the Philadelphia Oil Service Index, the Philadelphia Housing Sector Index and the NYSE Arca Securities Broker/Dealer Index all fell over 3 percent each for the week. The NYSE Arca Airline Index, the NYSE Arca Biotechnology Index, the KBW Bank Index, the NYSE Arca Computer Hardware Index and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index fell over 2 percent each. On the other hand, the NYSE Arca Gold Bugs Index rallied 6.53 percent and the Dow Jones Utility Average added 1.57 percent.
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The FOMC meeting along with some manufacturing and housing market readings are likely to take the center stage in the unfolding week. Traders are likely to closely focus on the FOMC announcement due on Wednesday and the Fed Chair's ensuing press conference. The results of separate manufacturing surveys for March by the New York Federal Reserve and the Philadelphia Federal Reserve as well as the Federal Reserve's industrial production report for February are also likely to attract attention.
The National Association of Home Builders' housing market index for March, the Commerce Department's housing starts report for February the National Association of Realtors' existing home sales report for February and the weekly jobless claims report are also among the closely watched reports. The Labor Department's consumer price inflation report for February, the Conference Board's leading economic indicators index for February and announcements concerning Treasury auctions of 2-year, 5-year and 7-year notes round up the economic events of the week.
The results of the survey by the New York Federal Reserve showed that business conditions in the region continued to expand in March. The business conditions index rose to 5.61 from 4.48 in February. Economists expected a faster rate of expansion. The new orders index moved into positive territory, rising to 3.13 from -0.12, and the shipments index moved up to 3.97 from 2.13. However, the unfilled orders index retreated further to -16.47 from -6.25.
The employment indexes were mixed, with the number of employees index dropping to 5.88 from 11.25, while the average workweek index rose to 4.71 from 3.75. Meanwhile, the 6-month outlook index also suggested expansion, although it at a slower rate than in the previous month.
The Treasury will release data that track the flows of financial instruments into and out of the U.S. at 9 am ET.
At 9:15 am ET, the Federal Reserve is due to release its industrial production report for February. The consensus estimate calls for a 0.3 percent month-over-month increase in industrial output, while capacity utilization is expected to edge up to 78.6 percent.
In January, industrial production fell 0.3 percent month-over-month, with manufacturing output declining 0.8 percent and mining output falling 0.9 percent, while production by utilities climbed by 4.1 percent. Capacity utilization edged down 0.4 points to 78.5 percent.
The National Association of Home Builders will release the results of its homebuilder confidence survey at 10 am ET. Economists expect the housing market index to increase to 50 in March from 46 in February.
The housing market index fell 10 points to 46 in February, contrary to expectations for a stable reading. The sales expectations index declined 6 points to 54 and the index of prospective buyer traffic slipped 9 points to 31. The current sales conditions index also declined, falling 11 points to 51.
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Standard & Poor's said Biogen Idec will replace S&P 500 constituent American Electric Power (AEP) in the S&P 100 Index. S&P MidCap 400 component Keurig Green Mountain will replace WPX Energy in the S&P 500 and WPX will replace Keurig Green Mountain in the S&P MidCap 400.
UPS (UPS) announced a 4.4 percent general rate increase, effective March 31st, 2014.
American Financial announced that it has terminated its tender offer to acquire all of the outstanding shares of National Interstate Corp. that it does not already own following an injunction by a U.S. district court. The tender offer was set to expire on March 17th.
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| | European Market |
European stocks opened on a tentative note but have moved moderately higher since then. A few M&A announcements have offered support to the markets amid lingering geopolitical worries.
In corporate news, close on heels of selling its stake in Verizon Wireless, Vodafone announced an agreement to buy Spanish Internet service provider Ono for 7.2 billion euros. L1 Energy, the investment vehicle of billionaire Mikhail Fridman, agreed to buy RWE's oil and gas unit for 5.1 billion euros.
German insurer Allianz announced a deal to buy the property and casualty business of Italy's UnipolSal for 440 million euros. German industrial gas company Linde reported better than expected profits for its fourth quarter and affirmed its medium term forecasts.
On the economic front, revised data released by Eurostat showed that annual euro area inflation in February was downwardly revised to 0.7 percent from 0.8 percent
The results of a survey by property tracking website Rightmove showed that house prices in the U.K. rose 1.6 percent month-over-month to a record price of 255,962 pounds in March. Annually, price growth slowed to 6.8 percent from 6.9 percent in February.
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The Asian markets closed on a mixed note, although the undercurrent remained one of caution, as fears over a stand-off between Russia and Western nations intensified following Crimea opting to secede from Ukraine and join with Russia in the referendum held over the weekend. The Australian, Hong Kong, Indonesian and Japanese markets retreated, while the other major markets advanced.
Japanese stocks retreated on the strength of the yen, which firmed up due to risk aversion. Japan's Nikkei 225 average languished below the unchanged line for much of the session before closing down 49.99 points or 0.35 percent at 14,278. Aeon, Nippon Telegraph & Telephone, NEC, Daiichi Sankyo and Alps Electric were among the worst performers of the session.
Australia's All Ordinaries also spent the better part of the session below the unchanged line, ending down 11.90 points or 0.22 percent at 5,335. A majority of stocks declined, with consumer staple, healthcare and material stocks among the worst hit.
Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index ended at 21,474, down 65.54 points or 0.30 percent, while China's Shanghai Composite Index rose 19.33 points or 0.96 percent before closing at 2,024.
The total number of new motor vehicles sold in Australia was up a seasonally adjusted 0.1 percent month-over-month in February, according to a report released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics. This followed the 3.5 percent monthly contraction in January.
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| | Currency and Commodities Markets |
Crude oil futures are slipping $0.63 to $98.26 a barrel after ending down $3.69 or 3.6 at $98.89 in the week ended March 14th.
Last Monday, oil slid by close to $1.50-a-barrel, dragged lower by the soft Chinese data. The commodity retreated by over $1-a-barrel on Tuesday.
Risk aversion and subsequent strength in the dollar pushed oil down by over $2-a-barrel on Wednesday. The commodity reversed course and rose moderately on Thursday despite some weak Chinese data. Oil rose moderately yet again on Friday, trimming its losses for the weak.
Gold futures, which rose $40.80 or 3.05 percent to $1,379 an ounce last week amid the risk aversion in the markets, are currently rising $1.10 to $1,380.10 an ounce.
On the currency front, the U.S. weakened in the week ended March 14th, with the greenback shedding 1.86 percent against the Yen before ending the week at 101.36. At the same time, the dollar fell 0.28 percent against the euro to $1.3914.
The U.S. dollar is currently trading at 101.67 Yen and is valued at $1.3903 versus the euro.
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