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Nov 7, 2016

Evening Euro Markets Bulletin

 
ADVFN III Evening Euro Markets Bulletin
Daily world financial news Monday, 07 November 2016 17:42:16
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London Market Report
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London close: Stocks rise as polls put Clinton in the lead for US President

London stocks rose on Monday as the latest polls put Hillary Clinton in the lead in the US presidential election after the FBI cleared her of any wrongdoing.
The FTSE 100 closed up 1.70% to 6,806.90 points.

National polls conducted by Bloomberg and The Washington Post/ABC News both showed Clinton with a small lead over Donald Trump, the former by three points (44-41) and the latter by four points (44-40).

The poll results came after the FBI said over the weekend that a fresh inquiry into Democratic candidate Clinton's communications found nothing to change the conclusion it had come to over the summer and that there had been no evidence of criminal wrongdoing after she used a private email server for government work.

Goldman Sachs said it continued to expect the Democratic contender to win the White House while Morgan Stanley and IG are also pricing in a Clinton presidency.

The dollar rose 0.92% against the euro, jumped 1.45% versus the yen and climbed 1.04% versus the pound to 1.2387.

The pound weakened further against the dollar after the secretary of state for exiting the European Union said there was "no going back" on Brexit.

David Davis confirmed the government will appeal the Article 50 High Court ruling that Parliament must vote on the triggering the formal Brexit process.

Meanwhile, a source told Sky News that the government was quietly preparing the first draft of a bill to invoke Article 50.

Elsewhere, a report from Markit showed Eurozone retail sales contracted further in October. The purchasing managers' index fell to 48.6 last month from 49.6 in September, below the 50 level that separates a contraction from an expansion.

Separately, Eurostat revealed the seasonally-adjusted volume of retail trade among the 19 Eurozone countries dropped 0.2% month-on-month in September, the same as the revised fall from August but better than the 0.3% fall estimated by economists.

Compared to September last year, retail sales rose 1.1%, worse than the revised 1.2% increase seen a month ago and short of the consensus estimate of 1.3%.

The Sentix investor confidence index for the Eurozone, however, rose to 13.1 in November from 8.5 last month.

On the commodities front, oil prices edged higher after OPEC secretary general Mohammed Barkindo reiterated the cartel's commitment to a deal to curb production. However, gains were limited as the dollar strengthened and as doubts persisted over the feasibility of OPEC's plan.

Brent crude rose 0.17% to $45.66 per barrel and West Texas Intermediate increased 0.78% to $44.42 per barrel at 1641 GMT.

In corporate news, HSBC gained ground as it said profits in the third quarter fell 86% compared to last year due to a disposal of its Brazilian bank, but underlying profits were higher in all four of its businesses.

Mining and energy stocks rallied on the positive sentiment surrounding a predicted Clinton win, including Glencore, BHP Billiton and Rio Tinto.

One miner that missed out was Fresnillo, as the Mexican silver miner slumped after being hit by a slide in the price of silver and a stronger Mexican peso.

Burberry was strutting higher, ahead of its interim results on Wednesday. A recent second quarter update showed like-for-like sales improving.

Technology company Smiths Group ticked up as it sold its IVF product to US-based multinational CooperSurgical for £140m.

Inmarsat was on the front foot after Barclays upgraded its stance on the satellite company to 'equalweight' from 'underweight'.

Drinks company Fever-Tree fizzed higher after saying it expects its full-year results to be ahead of market views following a solid performance in the second half.

Tesco shares fell after its Tesco Bank business halted online transactions as current account customers were hit by fraud.

Utilities stocks were lower, with analysts suggesting either bond yields bouncing back after the FBI news or record coal prices as possible reasons.


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Market Movers

FTSE 100 (UKX) 6,806.90 1.70%
FTSE 250 (MCX) 17,457.66 1.08%
techMARK (TASX) 3,301.80 1.03%

FTSE 100 - Risers

Antofagasta (ANTO) 565.00p 6.30%
Glencore (GLEN) 251.20p 5.63%
BHP Billiton (BLT) 1,221.50p 4.76%
Anglo American (AAL) 1,122.50p 4.76%
HSBC Holdings (HSBA) 622.30p 4.62%
Burberry Group (BRBY) 1,470.00p 3.89%
Rio Tinto (RIO) 2,825.00p 3.57%
Mediclinic International (MDC) 907.00p 3.30%
Capita (CPI) 588.00p 3.25%
Prudential (PRU) 1,346.00p 3.18%

FTSE 100 - Fallers

Fresnillo (FRES) 1,576.00p -3.02%
Randgold Resources Ltd. (RRS) 6,675.00p -1.69%
Tesco (TSCO) 200.20p -1.14%
United Utilities Group (UU.) 914.50p -0.97%
National Grid (NG.) 1,008.50p -0.84%
Worldpay Group (WPG) 279.80p -0.78%
ITV (ITV) 166.80p -0.71%
Severn Trent (SVT) 2,231.00p -0.71%
Centrica (CNA) 209.10p -0.62%
Imperial Brands (IMB) 3,803.00p -0.47%

FTSE 250 - Risers

Countrywide (CWD) 188.90p 6.31%
Sports Direct International (SPD) 325.00p 5.59%
Evraz (EVR) 198.20p 5.48%
Kaz Minerals (KAZ) 292.60p 4.91%
Clarkson (CKN) 2,117.00p 4.49%
Vedanta Resources (VED) 745.50p 4.34%
Mitchells & Butlers (MAB) 275.20p 4.21%
Aldermore Group (ALD) 184.20p 3.49%
Tullow Oil (TLW) 266.20p 3.42%
Temple Bar Inv Trust (TMPL) 1,127.00p 3.39%

FTSE 250 - Fallers

esure Group (ESUR) 188.80p -2.33%
Centamin (DI) (CEY) 154.00p -1.85%
Hochschild Mining (HOC) 260.90p -1.62%
IMI (IMI) 934.00p -1.48%
DFS Furniture (DFS) 234.00p -1.47%
Jardine Lloyd Thompson Group (JLT) 1,021.00p -1.26%
Fisher (James) & Sons (FSJ) 1,597.00p -1.11%
Ocado Group (OCDO) 271.50p -1.09%
Pennon Group (PNN) 798.00p -1.05%
Acacia Mining (ACA) 516.00p -0.96%

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US Market Report

FTSE 100 movers: Miners lead index on Clinton FBI relief rally

The FTSE 100 had one of its best days in the last two months as mining stocks in particular rose along with most global markets, seemingly on the expectation that the more conventional candidate appeared likely to win the US presidential election.


After the US Federal Bureau of Investigation confirmed that Democrat nominee Hillary Clinton would not be subject to any criminal proceedings, with a resultant rise in the dollar against the pound, among others, also seen as benefiting many of London's blue chips.

Miners were the main beneficiaries, with top rising stocks led by Antofagasta, Glencore, Anglo American, BHP Billiton and Rio Tinto.

One miner that missed out was Fresnillo, as the Mexican silver miner fell over 2% after a double hit from a slumping silver price and a stronger Mexican peso, which is a big proxy for anti-Donald Trump sentiment. The gold price was also smashed back down to $1,285, also the weakest since FBI chief James Comey first brought Clinton's email server back into the spotlight.

HSBC was a strong riser as it unveiled better underlying third quarter profits than were forecast. Although reported profits crashed 86% due to losses from selling its Brazil business, adjusted profits which excluded beat expectations.

"The rise in underlying profits in combination with a solid core tier one capital ratio suggest the restructuring of HSBC is coming together in a measured way, and improves the outlook for the dividend," said Jasper Lawler, an analyst at CMC Markets.

Burberry was also strutting higher, ahead of its interim results on Wednesday. A recent second quarter update showed like-for-like sales improving.

Utilities stocks were lower, with analysts suggesting either bond yields bouncing back after the FBI news or record coal prices as possible reasons.

Shares in Tesco were down after the company's wholly owned bank revealed around 40,000 customers had been hit by "suspicious transactions" online over the weekend, with around half that number having money taken from their accounts.

After some account holders reported as much as £600 had been siphoned from their accounts, Tesco Bank chief executive Benny Higgins confirmed on Monday that some current accounts had been "subject to online criminal activity" with some seeing "money being withdrawn fraudulently".

He added: "That is why, as a precautionary measure, we have taken the decision today to temporarily stop online transactions from current accounts."

FTSE 100 - Risers

Antofagasta (ANTO) 561.50p 5.64%
Glencore (GLEN) 249.90p 5.09%
Anglo American (AAL) 1,122.50p 4.76%
BHP Billiton (BLT) 1,219.50p 4.59%
HSBC Holdings (HSBA) 621.20p 4.44%
Rio Tinto (RIO) 2,823.50p 3.52%
Burberry Group (BRBY) 1,460.00p 3.18%
Shire Plc (SHP) 4,559.50p 2.97%
Mediclinic International (MDC) 903.50p 2.90%
Old Mutual (OML) 192.40p 2.61%

FTSE 100 - Fallers

Fresnillo (FRES) 1,589.00p -2.22%
United Utilities Group (UU.) 912.00p -1.25%
National Grid (NG.) 1,005.00p -1.18%
Severn Trent (SVT) 2,222.00p -1.11%
Tesco (TSCO) 200.55p -0.96%
Randgold Resources Ltd. (RRS) 6,730.00p -0.88%
Centrica (CNA) 208.60p -0.86%
Worldpay Group (WPG) 279.90p -0.74%
Croda International (CRDA) 3,243.00p -0.49%
BT Group (BT.A) 359.80p -0.48%


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Broker Tips

Broker tips: Compass, Prudential, Inmarsat

Jefferies on Monday downgraded its rating on Compass Group to 'hold' from 'buy' but raised its target to 1,475p from 1,450p ahead of the catering company's full year results later this month.
"Although Compass is a quality compounder with attractive total shareholder return credentials, these are well known and prospective price-earnings ratio and free cash flow multiples are elevated relative to history," Jefferies said.

Looking ahead to the food service provider's full year results on 22 November, Jefferies said it expects figures in line with expectations and unchanged outlook comments.

The broker predicts a 5.2% increase in organic revenue, supported by a 2 basis point rise in earnings before interest, tax and amortisation margin, before £25m restructuring costs. Pre-tax profit is forecast to come to £1.34bn while estimates for earnings per share are at 60.8p and the dividend is expected to be raised 8.2% to 21.2p.

Jefferies' guidance takes into account increased tailwind from recent foreign exchange rate movements and a reloaded £400-600 share buyback.

"Risks include FX volatility, increasing unemployment, weak commodity markets, management change, food and labour cost inflation," Jefferies said.



Bank of America Merrill Lynch reiterated its 'buy' rating on Prudential, adding the stock to its Europe 1 List, which is its department-wide list of best research ideas.

Merrill pointed out the shares have dropped 26% this year in US dollar terms and said its analysis of the group's closest peers suggests this is around 20% too much.

"Even on consensus estimates, which we think are 6-7% too low, the shares trade in line with the sector average price-to-earnings. This is despite offering double (9-10%) the sector average earnings per share growth over our forecasting period."

The bank said it sees around 34% total return potential from the shares, adding that the market is not factoring clear positives, such as the impact of the strengthening greenback, as around two-thirds of Prudential's earnings are USD or USD-linked.

"The S&P, HSI and FTSE are all up year-to-date. Yet 2017 consensus EPS estimates for Pru have not reacted (actually down YTD). This suggests to us the market is not yet factoring in good news and that now is a particularly attractive buying opportunity."

Merrill said the stock was suffering mostly on the back of noise around US and Asian regulation, neither of which it reckons present a serious risk to the business.

"We think earnings, solvency, and Asian growth could all surprise on the upside in H2," it said.

The bank has a 1,710p price target on Pru.



Satellite company Inmarsat rallied on Monday as Barclays upgraded the stock to 'equalweight' from 'underweight' and lifted the price target by to 860p from 745p.

"Following the stock's correction year-to-date (down 33% versus the Stoxx Europe 600 telecoms index down 13%), the risk/reward now appears balanced. However given high execution risk, rising competition and a valuation that still factors in sustained growth acceleration, we only upgrade to EW."

The bank said Inmarsat's third-quarter results were better than expected, mostly as GX started to deliver. Barclays said group revenue was 2% ahead of expectations, while earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortisation were 8% higher.

However, net income was below Barclays' expectations due to a one-off cost linked to a convertible issuance and early repurchase.

It pointed to the announcement of new contracts with IAG and Air New Zealand, which it said provide some "long-awaited" visibility for revenue growth in 2017-18.


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