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Nov 30, 2016

Evening Euro Markets Bulletin

 
ADVFN III Evening Euro Markets Bulletin
Daily world financial news Wednesday, 30 November 2016 19:28:26
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London close: Stocks end session higher as OPEC agrees to cut output

London stocks ended the session higher on Wednesday as oil prices jumped on the back of an OPEC deal to slash production.
The FTSE 100 closed up 0.17% to 6,783.79 points.

OPEC agreed to cut production to 32.5m barrels per day, marking the first reduction in the oil cartel's output in eight years.

Saudi Arabia said it would take a "big hit" while Iran was allowed to ramp up production to pre-sanction levels.

Brent crude exceeded the $50 per barrel mark, rising 7.2%, while West Texas Intermediate surged 6.7% to $48.49 per barrel at 1618 GMT.

"The cartel has shown united front and this is what matters the most," said Naeem Aslam at Think Markets. "There have been so many doubts over the year if they have the ability to deliver anything and today they have."

Oil giants Shell and BP were among the top risers on the FTSE 100, benefitting from the increase in oil prices.

In contrast, shares in airlines easyJet and British Airways owner IAG were both lower as higher oil prices will represent an increased cost headwind.

Elsewhere, consumer goods group Unilever advanced on investors' renewed interest in defensive stocks, analyst Mike van Dulken at Accendo Markets said, plus was holding an investor event in London on Wednesday.

Positive broker comment helped hoist Ashtead Group onto the leaderboad, with RBC Capital Markets increasing its price target ahead of the plant hire outfit's second quarter results next week.

Zoopla gained as it reported a rise in full-year profit and revenue and announced the acquisition of estate agency website design and hosting business Technicweb.

Shares in outsourcing group Capita hit a 10-year low after analysts at HSBC warned the shares had the potential to crumble yet further than their already precipitous plunge since September's profit warning.

Pub group Greene King was in the red as it reported a jump in first-half profit but warned over rising consumer and cost pressures.

Royal Bank of Scotland shares declined after failing all of the Bank of England's annual stress tests and was forced to submit plans to strengthen its balance sheet. The lender has agreed a revised capital plan with the Bank of England's Prudential Regulation Authority to raise at least £2bn of extra capital.

Rivals Barclays and Standard Chartered failed some BoE requirements but will not require fresh capital.

Speaking on the risks to UK banking following the stress test results, BoE Governor Mark Carney warned the EU will face major hits to its economy if it does not agree to a transitional period to allow banks and finance firms time to adapt to Brexit.

On the economic data front, private sector employment in the US rose much more than expected in November, according to ADP.

Employers added 216,000 jobs, which was a much bigger increase than the 165,000 expected by economists. Meanwhile, the October figure was revised down to show that 119,000 jobs had been added rather than the 147,000 previously estimated.

The Commerce Department revealed US personal spending climbed 0.3% in October following an upwardly revised 0.7% increase a month earlier, missing forecasts for a 0.5% gain.

Personal incomes expanded 0.6% last month after an upwardly revised 0.4% rise in September, beating estimates for unchanged growth.

The personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index rose an unchanged 0.2% month-on-month in October. The core PCE, which excludes food and energy prices and is the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation, gained 0.1% month-on-month after rising by the same margin in September.

Data from the National Association of Realtors showed US pending home sales nudged up in October. The NAR's monthly index inched up to 110.0 last month from a slight downward revision of 109.9 in September and in line with consensus forecasts.

Closer to home, the latest survey from market research firm GfK revealed UK consumer and business confidence fell further in November amid worries about the impact of the Brexit vote.

GfK's long-running consumer confidence index fell five points to -8, missing expectations of a decline to -4.


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Market Movers

FTSE 100 (UKX) 6,783.79 0.17%
FTSE 250 (MCX) 17,545.75 0.08%
techMARK (TASX) 3,251.66 -0.72%

FTSE 100 - Risers

Royal Dutch Shell 'B' (RDSB) 2,118.50p 4.28%
Royal Dutch Shell 'A' (RDSA) 2,026.00p 3.95%
BP (BP.) 459.45p 3.82%
Ashtead Group (AHT) 1,567.00p 3.71%
3i Group (III) 689.00p 2.45%
Pearson (PSON) 795.50p 2.18%
Unilever (ULVR) 3,196.00p 2.11%
Hikma Pharmaceuticals (HIK) 1,701.00p 1.92%
Standard Chartered (STAN) 641.10p 1.55%
Coca-Cola HBC AG (CDI) (CCH) 1,700.00p 1.49%

FTSE 100 - Fallers

Capita (CPI) 524.50p -5.92%
Fresnillo (FRES) 1,200.00p -2.76%
Sage Group (SGE) 657.50p -2.66%
Rio Tinto (RIO) 2,990.00p -2.51%
Randgold Resources Ltd. (RRS) 5,700.00p -2.48%
International Consolidated Airlines Group SA (CDI) (IAG) 433.50p -2.47%
Imperial Brands (IMB) 3,433.00p -2.42%
AstraZeneca (AZN) 4,149.50p -2.27%
United Utilities Group (UU.) 883.00p -2.21%
easyJet (EZJ) 990.00p -2.08%

FTSE 250 - Risers

Cairn Energy (CNE) 208.60p 14.18%
Tullow Oil (TLW) 297.80p 13.32%
Hunting (HTG) 540.00p 9.36%
Brewin Dolphin Holdings (BRW) 287.40p 9.32%
Euromoney Institutional Investor (ERM) 1,078.00p 7.80%
RPC Group (RPC) 1,077.00p 7.49%
Amec Foster Wheeler (AMFW) 436.80p 7.14%
Zoopla Property Group (ZPLA) 334.90p 4.98%
Britvic (BVIC) 571.50p 4.29%
Sports Direct International (SPD) 309.00p 4.22%

FTSE 250 - Fallers

Playtech (PTEC) 859.00p -6.83%
Rank Group (RNK) 194.20p -4.33%
Cranswick (CWK) 2,240.00p -3.74%
Greene King (GNK) 686.50p -3.51%
Restaurant Group (RTN) 324.90p -3.48%
Moneysupermarket.com Group (MONY) 265.00p -3.28%
IP Group (IPO) 138.10p -3.22%
Man Group (EMG) 113.50p -2.99%
GVC Holdings (GVC) 652.00p -2.90%
Mitchells & Butlers (MAB) 227.20p -2.86%

Europe Market Report
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Oil stocks drive slight gains, FTSE Mib outperforms

European stocks finished slightly higher after member countries from the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries agreed to cut their combined output and amid better-than-expected economic data released on both sides of the Atlantic.

The benchmark Stoxx 600 edged up 0.31%, France’s CAC 40 rose 0.59% and Germany’s DAX edged 0.19% higher.

OPEC agreed to cut its production by 1.2m barrels a day to 32.5m b/d, according to reports citing delegates.

Iran, however, would be allowed to continue increasing its output to roughly 3.9m b/d with a view so as to allow Tehran to recover its share of the market prior to the imposition of international sanctions on Iran.

Furthermore, the Russian Federation agreed to reduce its own output of oil by 300,000 barrels a day, a spokesman for OPEC said at a press conference following OPEC's meeting.

West Texas Intermediate and Brent crude rose 7.9% and 7.5% to $49.09 and $50.14 per barrel, respectively. The Stoxx oil and gas index rose 3.55%.

On the data front, inflation in the Eurozone rose to its highest level since early 2014 in November, in line with expectations, according to a 'flash' estimate released by Eurostat.

Consumer prices in the euro area were up 0.6% from a year ago, compared to 0.5% in October while core inflation, which excludes unprocessed food, alcohol, tobacco and energy prices, was up by 0.8% year-on-year compared to 0.7% in October.

Pantheon Economics Chief Eurozone economist Claus Vistesen said: “These data won’t change the ECB’s position much. We continue to think that the central bank will extend QE by six months to Q3 2017 when it convenes for its December meeting next week. EZ inflation likely will rise sharply in Q1 as base effects from the crash in oil prices push the energy component higher, but the ECB has already stated that it intends to look through that. Core inflation, meanwhile, will remain well below the target of 2%, supporting a decision to prolong stimulus.”

Meanwhile, Germany’s unemployment rate came in at 6%, unchanged from the previous month and in line with economists’ expectations.

The number of unemployed people on the other hand fell by a seasonally-adjusted 5,000, also as expected, following a drop of 13,000 people the month before.

Vistesen said: “We are literally in uncharted territory at the moment, with unemployment pushing new lows on a monthly basis, and vacancies rising to new highs. Our base case is that wage pressures will pick up next year. Employment — data released for October — also continued to hit new highs, but growth is slowing compared with the first half of the year.”

Over in the States, private consultancy ADP's estimate of US private sector payrolls revealed an increase of 216,000 for November (consensus: 160,000).

In London, banks were in focus following the results of the Bank of England’s latest stress tests. State-owned Royal Bank of Scotland performed the worst and has been forced to submit plans to raise fresh capital, while rivals Barclays and Standard Chartered failed requirements but will not require extra funds.

RBS failed to pass all the hurdles of the stress test and has agreed a revised capital plan with the Bank of England's Prudential Regulation Authority to raise at least £2bn of extra capital.

Elsewhere, Sage fell back after earlier gains. The accounting software company reported annual revenues and earnings that were slightly ahead of expectations.

Linde AG shares surged after the company confirmed it has received a revised proposal concerning a potential merger of equals with Praxair.


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US Market Report

US open: Investors buoyed by OPEC oil production cut

US markets advanced as investors were buoyed after OPEC members agreed to slash oil production for the first time since 2008, which sent prices soaring.
On opening the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose around 100 pints, hitting a record high on Wednesday.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 0.52% to 19,220.08 points, the S&P 500 leapt 0.41% to 2,213.62 points, and the Nasdaq gained 0.18% to 5,389.71 points at 1445 GMT.

Brent crude surged past the $50 per barrel mark, rising 7.3%, while West Texas Intermediate jumped 6.8% to $48.57 at 1540 GMT.

OPEC member countries finalised the deal discussed in the Algiers in September to cut production by 1.2m barrels per day, in a bid to push oil prices higher.

According to Gulf Energy, Iran agreed to go freeze production at just under 4m barrels per day, avoiding a cut. The country had been ramping up production after economic sanctions were lifted in January.

But the deal hinges on the world's biggest oil exporter Saudi Arabia, while rumours swirled that Indonesia may have been suspended from the cartel, which might take around 740,000 barrels per day out of the quota.

Airlines, however, were on the back foot on opening as American Airlines dropped 2.52% to 45.71 cents, Delta Airlines fell 2.55% to 47.42 cents, UAL Corp was down 2.1% to 68.24 cents, and Southwest Airlines decreased 3.83% to 45.47 cents.

James Hughes, chief market analyst at GKFX, said the production deal has come 12 months too late for many as low oil prices have crippled some economies in the period.

"It has been said that the OPEC deal is contingent on non-OPEC members, such as Russia agreeing to participate... The swings in the markets on the back of every tweet that was sent by anyone close to the meeting showed that jitters and expectations that rested on OPEC and any failure could well have sparked some heavy downside for not just oil prices, but equity markets and the US dollar as well.

"All in all OPEC has cut output to levels seen back in April, the same time that Saudi Arabia ramped up production. So without yet having confirmation it does look like we have a deal, but whether it has gone far enough to give oil prices the kick they need, or prove that OPEC is a viable organisation is very much yet to be seen."

In currency markets, the dollar was up 1.09% against the yen to 113.60, rose 0.52% against the euro to 0.9439 and edged higher by 0.39% against sterling to 0.8036.

On the data front, the ADP national employment report showed that 216,000 jobs were added in November by private employers, above the forecast 165,000. The private payroll increase was revised down to 119,000 from the 147,000 initially reported.

The personal consumption expenditures price index nudged up 0.2% in October after a similar increase in September. In the year to October, the index crept 1.4%, after rising 1.2% in September.

In corporate news, Praxair's shares were down 1.17% after it confirmed had approached German rival Linde AG about resuming discussions regarding a potential offer.

Elsewhere, Splunk Inc gained 4.05% after it lifted its outlook for the year late on Tuesday, but design software maker Autodesk dipped 5.51% after its guidance for the current quarter left investors disappointed.


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Broker Tips

Broker tips: Ophir, Capita, Croda

Ophir Energy's shares gushed higher after Canaccord Genuity upgraded the stock to 'buy' from 'hold' and lifted the target to 105p from 80p.
Canaccord cited Ophir's newly formed joint operating company (JOC) with OneLNG to develop the Fotuna gasfield offshore Equatorial Guinea via a floating liquefied natural gas (FLNG) facility.

Ophir will own 33.8% of the JOC which is expected to commercialise the 2.6trn cubic feet project.

Canaccord said the Fortuna framework "provides the basis for a project which would be a step change for the company" in terms of booked reserves and production.

"As a result, in the absence of clarity on development/value of the offshore Tanzania gas, Fortuna is set to become Ophir's most important asset once the key milestones above are completed," the broker said.

"However, while the project now has substance and the unrisked valuation is substantial, we anticipate the market will only gradually derisk Fortuna as these milestones are checked off. "

Canaccord raised its target in line with other similar profile exploration and production companies based on net present value of 12.5, compared to NPV15 previously, given the Kerenden field is now producing and Fortuna is more firmly established.



Having already more than halved since its September profit warning, Capita shares fell to their lowest in a decade after analysts at HSBC and RBC Capital Markets warned the shares had the potential to crumble yet further.

RBC cut its target to 500p from 600p as a lack of growth, margin pressure and a stretched balance sheet was seen as the company's best-case scenario, with a worst case of further downgrades, change of management and an equity raise.

HSBC downgraded the stock to 'reduce' from 'hold' and slashed its price target to 450p from 1,020p, responding to many investors who had been asking if the shares have hit a trough by saying "we see a material risk that they have not".

Capita has high financial gearing, declining sales and a weak growth outlook, "a combination that seldom fuels investor confidence", while consensus estimates of a 1-2% decline in organic sales decline and 40 basis points expansion of operating profit margin for 2017 also now "seem optimistic", HSBC said, adding that its earnings per share estimates are 8-9% below the consensus, with dividend forecast 50% below consensus.

HSBC saw three strategic choices for Capita: a slow de-gearing that would hold back M&A and dividends, disposal of underperforming business, and/or a capital increase.

"A slow, organic de-gearing does not look like a realistic option to us. The UK public sector pipeline is weak, private sector contract awards and decision making have come to screeching halt post the Brexit vote, according to the company," analyst Rajesh Kumar said.

"The transactional businesses such as the recruitment business, the share registry, and the IT box shifting sales are unlikely to cyclically swing back to growth soon. If the decline in organic sales worsens further, financial de-gearing may not happen. A highly geared balance sheet in a weak demand environment may impede further long duration contract wins."

RBC's Andrew Brooke also noted that the UK outsourcing market is likely to remain under pressure as decision making has lengthened, discretionary spending is on hold and rebids are likely to result in margin pressure and/or greater risk transfer relative to first-generation outsourcing contracts.

Brooke said there were also "a number of Serco-esque red flags"; including a lack of growth, falling ROIC, increased exceptionals, significant acquisition spend, regular divisional reorganisations, increased amounts of accrued income and contingent liabilities, and no key external management appointments for a long time.

"Hence we believe there remains a risk of further write-downs, one-offs and a rebasing of expectations at some point."



Deutsche Bank has downgraded its rating on Croda International to 'hold' from 'buy' and cut its target to 3,600p from 3,300p, citing subdued growth in 2016.

The bank said Croda has lagged behind all its consumer chemicals peers this year.

"We expect organic top line growth to remain relatively soft in 2017 (+2.9%), notably in the 'higher value' Consumer Care division and have cut our 2016-18E earnings per share by 1-3% due to lower sales and margin assumptions (target lowered to 3300p)," Deutsche Bank said.

"Whilst we welcome Croda's focus on innovation and margins, the ongoing lack of organic top line growth remains a concern to us and at 20x 17E price-earnings ratio (broadly in-line with faster growing, less cyclical consumer chemicals peers) we see the valuation as fair and downgrade our recommendation to 'hold'."

The company, which manufactures engine lubricants, plastics, and chemicals for the health and beauty industry amid its large specialty chemicals portfolio, on 3 November affirmed its expectations for the full year as it reported its third quarter trading update.


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Morning Euro Markets Bulletin

 
ADVFN  Morning Euro Markets Bulletin
Daily world financial news Wednesday, 30 November 2016 09:09:31
Monitor Quote Charts News CFD's Compare Brokers Free BB
 

The Brexit Rollercoaster. Take your position for the trading ride of your life, at City Index.

The Brexit effect means constant uncertainty. Will the pound be up or down? Are businesses feeling confident? At City Index you can trade FX from just 0.5 points. Seize the opportunity today. And hold on to your hat. Losses can exceed deposits.

Trade now


London Market Report
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London open: Stocks nudge up as investors eye OPEC; banks in focus

Stocks in London were just a touch firmer in early trade as investors digested the results of the latest Bank of England stress tests and kept an eye on the OPEC meeting in Vienna.
At 0825 GMT, the FTSE 100 was up 0.2% to 6,788.08. Meanwhile, oil prices rallied amid growing expectations that the members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries will be able to agree on a production cut at their meeting in Vienna later.

Oil prices shot up after Iran's oil minister, Bijan Zanganeh, said he reckoned a deal could be reached, although an immediate freeze by Iran wasn't on the agenda.

West Texas Intermediate was up 1.4% to $45.88 a barrel and Brent crude was 1.6% firmer at $47.10.

Banks were in focus following the results of the Bank of England's latest stress tests. State-owned Royal Bank of Scotland performed the worst and has been forced to submit plans to raise fresh capital, while rivals Barclays and Standard Chartered failed requirements but will not require extra funds.

RBS failed to pass all the hurdles of the stress test and has agreed a revised capital plan with the Bank of England's Prudential Regulation Authority to raise at least £2bn of extra capital.

RBS shares fell 2.5%, while Barclays nudged up 0.1% and StanChart slipped 0.4%.

Elsewhere, Zoopla gained ground after reporting a rise in full-year profit and revenue and announcing the acquisition of estate agency website design and hosting business Technicweb.

IG Group ticked higher after it said trading in the second quarter has continued to be in line with its expectations.

Pub group Greene King edged lower despite posting a jump in interim profit, while gambling software company Playtech slumped after its founder sold a 12% stake for £329m.

Investors were also mulling over the latest survey from market research firm GfK, which showed UK consumer and business confidence fell further in November amid worries about the impact of the Brexit vote.

GfK's long-running consumer confidence index fell five points to -8, missing expectations of a decline to -4.

Joe Staton, head of Market Dynamics at GfK, said: "The slump across the board this month points to continuing uncertainty about the state of the economy among consumers. Although scores for our personal financial situation just about remain positive, the big theme is the reduced confidence in the UK economy looking back and ahead. We are viewing our economy over the past 12 months with increasing despondency. The decreasing score on the economy for the next 12 months also shows we are resolutely gloomy about the outlook despite strong GDP numbers."

There are no major UK data releases due, but in the US, the ADP employment report is at 1315 GMT, while the Chicago PMI is at 1445 GMT and pending home sales are at 1500 GMT.

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Market Movers

FTSE 100 (UKX) 6,775.94 0.06%
FTSE 250 (MCX) 17,539.12 0.04%
techMARK (TASX) 3,281.40 0.19%

FTSE 100 - Risers

Ashtead Group (AHT) 1,534.00p 1.52%
Lloyds Banking Group (LLOY) 58.50p 1.37%
Centrica (CNA) 212.30p 1.19%
BT Group (BT.A) 358.55p 1.19%
CRH (CRH) 2,673.00p 1.17%
Pearson (PSON) 787.00p 1.09%
London Stock Exchange Group (LSE) 2,804.00p 1.01%
TUI AG Reg Shs (DI) (TUI) 1,063.00p 0.95%
Associated British Foods (ABF) 2,581.00p 0.94%
Antofagasta (ANTO) 706.00p 0.86%

FTSE 100 - Fallers

Capita (CPI) 536.00p -3.86%
Anglo American (AAL) 1,166.00p -3.20%
Rio Tinto (RIO) 2,988.50p -2.56%
Glencore (GLEN) 274.85p -2.31%
Royal Bank of Scotland Group (RBS) 192.60p -2.23%
BHP Billiton (BLT) 1,285.50p -2.13%
easyJet (EZJ) 999.50p -1.14%
Croda International (CRDA) 3,251.00p -0.94%
Whitbread (WTB) 3,457.00p -0.72%
Randgold Resources Ltd. (RRS) 5,805.00p -0.68%

FTSE 250 - Risers

RPC Group (RPC) 1,072.00p 6.99%
Brewin Dolphin Holdings (BRW) 276.20p 5.06%
Britvic (BVIC) 574.00p 4.74%
Zoopla Property Group (ZPLA) 332.20p 4.14%
Card Factory (CARD) 257.10p 3.92%
Tullett Prebon (TLPR) 455.10p 3.67%
PayPoint (PAY) 1,041.00p 3.07%
Genus (GNS) 1,910.00p 2.58%
AO World (AO.) 166.50p 2.52%
Safestore Holdings (SAFE) 353.70p 2.52%

FTSE 250 - Fallers

Playtech (PTEC) 848.50p -7.97%
Vedanta Resources (VED) 831.00p -3.37%
Atkins (WS) (ATK) 1,407.00p -2.56%
Marshalls (MSLH) 291.70p -2.54%
Kaz Minerals (KAZ) 355.30p -2.47%
Polypipe Group (PLP) 290.00p -2.06%
TalkTalk Telecom Group (TALK) 158.80p -1.98%
Acacia Mining (ACA) 393.60p -1.94%
Hochschild Mining (HOC) 212.70p -1.62%

Europe Market Report
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Europe open: Stocks edge higher as oil rallies

European stocks edged higher in early trade as oil prices rallied ahead of the OPEC meeting.
At 0850 GMT, the benchmark Stoxx Europe 600 index was up 0.3%, while Germany's DAX and France's CAC 40 were 0.6% firmer.

Meanwhile, oil prices rallied amid growing expectations that the members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries will be able to agree on a production cut at their meeting in Vienna later.

Oil prices shot up after Iran's oil minister, Bijan Zanganeh, said he reckoned a deal could be reached, although an immediate freeze by Iran wasn't on the agenda.

West Texas Intermediate was up 1.9% to $46.08 a barrel and Brent crude was 2.1% firmer at $47.36.

David Morrison, senior market strategist at SpreadCo, said: "Investors remain hopeful that the 14-member cartel will agree production cuts. However, there's as strong possibility that we get a repeat of the Doha meeting in April which broke up in acrimony with Saudi Arabia and Iran at loggerheads. If so, then we should expect crude to retest support around $40 very soon.

"Even if there is an agreement to cut production (and it will have to be around 1 million barrels per day - just for OPEC) then any significant price rise looks likely to be capped by increased US shale oil output."

In London, banks were in focus following the results of the Bank of England's latest stress tests. State-owned Royal Bank of Scotland performed the worst and has been forced to submit plans to raise fresh capital, while rivals Barclays and Standard Chartered failed requirements but will not require extra funds.

RBS failed to pass all the hurdles of the stress test and has agreed a revised capital plan with the Bank of England's Prudential Regulation Authority to raise at least £2bn of extra capital.

RBS shares fell 2.5%, while Barclays nudged up 0.1% and StanChart slipped 0.4%.

Elsewhere, Sage was in the black after the accounting software company's annual revenues and earnings came in slightly ahead of expectations.

Linde AG shares surged after the company confirmed it has received a revised proposal concerning a potential merger of equals with Praxair.


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UK Event Calendar

Wednesday November 30

INTERIMS
Abzena, BCA Marketplace, Biffa, Findel, Greene King, LondonMetric Property, Telford Homes

INTERIM DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATE
BAE Systems, BlackRock Smaller Companies Trust, Capita, RTC Group, Senior

QUARTERLY PAYMENT DATE
City of London Inv Trust, F&C Commercial Property Trust Ltd., Picton Property Income Ltd

INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTS
Chicago PMI (US) (14:45)
Crude Oil Inventories (US) (15:30)
MBA Mortgage Applications (US) (12:00)
Pending Homes Sales (US) (15:00)
Personal Consumption Expenditures (US) (13:30)
Personal Income (US) (13:30)
Personal Spending (US) (13:30)
Retail Sales (GER) (07:00)
Unemployment Rate (EU) (08:55)

Q3
Alpha Bank GDR (Reg S) USD, Avengardco Investments Public Ltd GDR, TCS Group Holding GDR (Each Repr 1 A Shr) (Reg S)

FINALS
Brewin Dolphin Holdings, Britvic, Sage Group, Sanderson Group

IMSS
Wolseley

AGMS
Aura Energy Limited NPV (DI), F&C UK Real Estate Investments Limited, Ferrum Crescent Ltd NPV (DI), Genedrive , Oncimmune Holdings, Picton Property Income Ltd, Ruffer Investment Company Ltd Red PTG Pref Shares, Salt Lake Potash Limited (DI), Weatherly International, Work Service

TRADING ANNOUNCEMENTS
IG Group Holdings, Merlin Entertainments

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US Market Report

US close: Stocks inch higher as Opec continues to tantalise

Encouraging economic data helped eclipse a sharp drop in oil prices to help US stocks inch higher on Tuesday, though investors continued to hang on every word emanating around the meeting of major oil producing countries in Vienna.
The Dow Jones closed up 23.70 points or 0.12% to 19,121.60, with the S&P adding 2.94 or 0.13% to 2,204.66 and the Nasdaq composite topping the 5,400 intra-day high but closing at 5,379.92 for a gain of 11.11 points or 0.21%.

As Wednesday's Opec meeting dominated headlines, oil prices slid as non-member Russia confirmed it will not attend the cartel's meeting in the Austrian capital, although it said a meeting of the group and non-affiliated producers could take place at a later stage.

Among other gloomy comments, Indonesia's energy minister said he was "not optimistic" that Opec would agree to cap production.

Although an initial consensus on trimming production to support the oil price seemed to have been agreed, IG analyst Josh Mahony said a deal now felt "as far away as ever, with members continuing to conduct an intricate game of political poker, utilising the media to further their cause. It is becoming increasingly evident that some of the more prominent Opec members care more about holding on to market share than helping raise the price of oil. Hence despite agreeing to a production cut, we have seen the likes of Saudi Arabia, Iraq and Iran all continue to raise production."

Naeem Aslam at Think Markets even warned the lack of an Opec deal could hit US stocks so hard the S&P 500 could drop well below 2,100.

"If there is no deal, the Saudis are going to make sure they dump the market with as much oil as possible because now the real trade war will begin and they won't care about anything," he said, suggesting oil could be sent down to the mid-$20s.

West Texas Intermediate dropped 3.9% to $45.26 while Brent crude was 3.8% weaker at $46.46 per barrel by the early evening in New York.

But this news, or lack of it, was counterbalanced by an upward revision in the growth rate of the US economy for the third quarter, thanks mostly to stronger retail sales.

Gross domestic product was shown by the Commerce Department to have grown 3.2% on the same period last year, up from 2.9% in the initial reading and faster than the 3.0% expected.

"Critically, we have seen household spending prove the primary driver of growth, which could well continue into Q4 given the shopping fest instigated on Black Friday," IG's Mahony added.

US consumer confidence also impressed, the Conference Board's headline index jumping to a nine-year high of 107.1 from 100.8 as both expectations and current conditions both rose sharply to help beat the 101.5 consensus forecast.

However, Spreadex analyst Connor Campbell said neither the main stock indices nor the dollar reacted much after the GDP news, probably due to both having mostly priced in December's anticipated interest rate hike from the Federal Reserve.

In company news, shares in Tiffany & Co sparkled as the jeweller reported a surprise jump in sales for first time in two years, as Japan and China offset the sales decline in the US.

Whereas shares in Shoe Carnival stumbled after its quarterly results released late on Monday missed expectations and the retailer cut its annual guidance.

Dow Jones - Risers

Unitedhealth Group Inc. (UNH) $157.59 3.60%
Boeing Co. (BA) $151.64 1.25%
Pfizer Inc. (PFE) $31.92 1.20%
Microsoft Corp. (MSFT) $61.09 0.79%
JP Morgan Chase & Co. (JPM) $78.92 0.77%
Walt Disney Co. (DIS) $99.67 0.71%
Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (GS) $211.75 0.67%
Merck & Co. Inc. (MRK) $62.19 0.63%
E.I. du Pont de Nemours and Co. (DD) $71.20 0.44%
United Technologies Corp. (UTX) $108.84 0.36%

Dow Jones - Fallers

Coca-Cola Co. (KO) $41.15 -1.44%
Chevron Corp. (CVX) $109.34 -1.05%
McDonald's Corp. (MCD) $120.69 -0.94%
Caterpillar Inc. (CAT) $94.04 -0.91%
American Express Co. (AXP) $71.49 -0.89%
Home Depot Inc. (HD) $129.62 -0.78%
Nike Inc. (NKE) $50.63 -0.74%
Exxon Mobil Corp. (XOM) $85.90 -0.66%
General Electric Co. (GE) $31.05 -0.64%
International Business Machines Corp. (IBM) $163.53 -0.60%

S&P 500 - Risers

Alexion Pharmaceuticals Inc. (ALXN) $125.59 5.20%
Centene Corp. (CNC) $57.60 3.88%
Unitedhealth Group Inc. (UNH) $157.59 3.60%
AbbVie Inc (ABBV) $61.59 3.58%
Electronic Arts Inc. (EA) $81.37 3.35%
Tiffany & Co. (TIF) $80.60 3.15%
Praxair Inc. (PX) $122.20 2.94%
Aetna Inc. (AET) $132.03 2.84%
Comcast Corp. (CMCSA) $70.14 2.68%
H&R Block Inc. (HRB) $22.38 2.57%

S&P 500 - Fallers

Mallinckrodt Plc Ordinary Shares (MNK) $52.44 -9.10%
Diamond Offshore Drilling Inc. (DO) $15.71 -6.71%
Freeport-McMoRan Inc (FCX) $14.97 -5.13%
Baxter International Inc. (BAX) $44.76 -3.97%
Hess Corp. (HES) $49.06 -3.82%
Marathon Oil Corp. (MRO) $14.95 -3.80%
First Solar Inc. (FSLR) $29.95 -3.73%
Alcoa Corporation (AA) $29.73 -3.66%
Allstate Corp (The) (ALL) $69.63 -3.35%
Transocean Ltd. (RIG) $11.03 -3.33%

Nasdaq 100 - Risers

Alexion Pharmaceuticals Inc. (ALXN) $125.59 5.20%
JD.com, Inc. (JD) $26.85 3.95%
Charter Communications Inc. (CHTR) $280.49 3.57%
Electronic Arts Inc. (EA) $81.37 3.35%
Dish Network Corp. (DISH) $57.69 2.74%
Comcast Corp. (CMCSA) $70.14 2.68%
Paychex Inc. (PAYX) $59.46 2.53%
Ctrip.Com International Ltd. Ads (CTRP) $45.87 2.53%
Discovery Communications Inc. Class C (DISCK) $27.12 2.03%
Akamai Technologies Inc. (AKAM) $67.28 1.68%

Nasdaq 100 - Fallers

Tesla Motors Inc (TSLA) $189.57 -3.34%
Micron Technology Inc. (MU) $19.42 -2.85%
Cognizant Technology Solutions Corp. (CTSH) $55.63 -2.32%
Cerner Corp. (CERN) $49.77 -2.16%
Biomarin Pharmaceutical Inc. (BMRN) $86.70 -1.88%
Mylan Inc. (MYL) $36.06 -1.85%
TripAdvisor Inc. (TRIP) $49.30 -1.75%
Vertex Pharmaceuticals Inc. (VRTX) $85.65 -1.44%
Check Point Software Technologies Ltd. (CHKP) $81.59 -1.14%


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Newspaper Round Up

Wednesday newspaper round-up: Brexit, National Grid, Tata Steel

European leaders have quashed an attempt by Theresa May to secure an early agreement to guarantee the status after Brexit of EU nationals living in the UK and vice versa. Angela Merkel insisted there could be no side deals before Britain starts formal EU exit negotiations next year, a view backed by European Council president Donald Tusk. - Financial Times
National Grid is investigating whether a boat's anchor is to blame for knocking out half the capacity from a crucial power link beneath the English Channel - threatening further increases to electricity prices in the UK this winter. Four of eight cables running along the seabed between Folkestone and Calais were damaged during Storm Angus - the first named storm of the season - earlier this month. - Financial Times

Sky has launched its attack on the mobile market, hoping to convince millions of its pay-TV customers to defect from their current provider with the offer of unlimited free calls and texts. Those who switch to Sky Mobile will pay only for mobile broadband access, with a 1GB package £10 per month, 3GB at £15 and the 5GB package at £20. - Telegraph

Motorists could see the price of foreign cars jump by £1,500 if Britain fails to agree a deal on trade tariffs when it leaves the European Union. The warning came from Gareth Jones, president of the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders, as he predicted a potential £4.5bn bill for the automotive industry and consumers from Brexit. - Telegraph

Global firms behind popular brands such as Kit Kat, Colgate toothpaste and Dove cosmetics use palm oil produced by child workers in dangerous conditions, Amnesty International has claimed. The human rights organisation traced a range of well-known products back to the palm oil company Wilmar, which it alleged employs children to do back-breaking physical labour on refineries in Indonesia. - Guardian

The energy regulator has chosen Co-operative Energy - a company that last month paid out £1.8m compensation to customers - to take over the supply GB Energy's gas and electricity customers. Ofgem has been working behind the scenes since GB Energy's collapse at the weekend to appoint a "supplier of last resort" to take over all of the company's 160,000 customers. - Guardian

Thousands of jobs at Port Talbot are in the balance again after reports that Tata Steel is to close one of the two operational blast furnaces. Tata is planning to reduce output at its largest UK plant as part of a merger with ThyssenKrupp, of Germany, according to reports. Port Talbot in south Wales has been under the threat of closure since March, when the Tata board in Mumbai shocked British ministers by announcing that it wanted to quit the UK steel industry, citing high energy costs, plummeting steel prices because of Chinese stock-dumping and currency fluctuation. - The Times

Rio Tinto faces an inquiry by American authorities over a multibillion-dollar writedown of a site in Mozambique in 2013. The US Securities and Exchange Commission is looking into the writedown triggered by a disastrous acquisition of a coal project in the southern African country in 2011. - The Times

 

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Nov 29, 2016

Evening Euro Markets Bulletin

 
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London Market Report
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London close: FTSE closes lower as oil prices plunge ahead of OPEC meeting

The FTSE 100 closed in the red on Tuesday as oil prices retreated on doubts OPEC will reach a deal to curb production at a meeting in Vienna.
London's top tier index fell 0.40% to 6,772 points.

Brent crude plunged 4.7% to $46.05 per barrel and West Texas Intermediate slumped 4.7% to $44.96 per barrel at 1641 GMT.

Indonesia's energy minister told reporters in Vienna that he's "not optimistic" that OPEC will reach a deal at its meeting on Wednesday.

IG market analyst Joshua Mahony said: "As we approach tomorrow's crucial OPEC meeting, the impact of an increasingly volatile crude market will play a significant part in dictating sentiment throughout financial markets.

He added: "Despite an initial consensus, a deal feels as far away as ever, with members continuing to conduct an intricate game of political poker, utilising the media to further their cause.

"It is becoming increasingly evident that some of the more prominent OPEC members care more about holding on to market share than helping raise the price of oil. Hence, despite agreeing to a production cut, we have seen the likes of Saudi Arabia, Iraq and Iran all continue to raise production."

Investors are also cautious ahead of Italy's referendum on Sunday. Italians will be asked to decide whether to accept a package of constitutional reforms put forward by centre-left Prime Minister Matteo Renzi, who has said he would resign if the proposals are rejected.

Market participants are concerned that if this results in a 'no' vote, political uncertainty will ensue, making the task of sorting out non-performing loan issues at the country's banks even more difficult.

In economic data, UK mortgage approvals and levels of unsecured consumer credit rose more than expected in October, according to the Bank of England.

The BoE said that 67,518 mortgages for house purchases had been approved last month, up from 63,594 in the preceding month and August's 18-month low of 61,381, as well as topping the 65,000 consensus forecast. Total consumer credit rose to ?1.62bn in October, from ?1.48bn the month before and above the ?1.50bn consensus estimate.

Stateside, the Commerce Department raised its estimate on third quarter US economic growth. Gross domestic product grew at an annual rate of 3.2%, up from an earlier estimate of 2.9% and beating consensus expectations for 3% growth. This compared to 1.4% in the second quarter and marked the strongest reading in two years.

In the Eurozone, the European Commission's headline economic sentiment index edged up to 106.5 in November from a revised 106.4 in October, missing economists' expectations for a reading of 107.0.

The EC said the virtually unchanged sentiment resulted from a mild deterioration in industry confidence and stable readings in services, which offset more upbeat assessments of construction and retail trade managers, as well as consumers.

In corporate news, oil producers were under pressure on the drop in crude prices including BHP Billiton, BP and Royal Dutch Shell.

A fall in metals prices, led by copper, saw investors migrate out of Antofagasta, Fresnillo, BHP Billiton, Rio Tinto, Anglo American and Randgold.

Healthcare provider Mediclinic edged lower after Jefferies cut its target on the stock to 741p from 812p.

BT Group recovered from earlier losses arising from Ofcom's ruling that it must legally separate from its Openreach infrastructure arm due to its failure to satisfy the regulator's competition concerns.

BT made a move late on Monday to try and prevent the enforced spin-off with the appointment of a former director of the telecoms regulator, Mike McTighe, as chairman of Openreach.

FTSE 250 real estate investment trust Shaftesbury slipped after it posted a drop in profit for the year to the end of September but a rise in revenue, and expressed confidence in its outlook.

On the upside, housebuilders rallied on the back of the positive BoE data on mortgage approvals. Shares in Persimmon, Taylor Wimpey and Barratt Developments gained.

Pork and poultry producer Cranswick advanced after reporting a jump in first-half pre-tax profit and revenue.

 


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Market Movers

FTSE 100 (UKX) 6,772.00 -0.40%
FTSE 250 (MCX) 17,532.06 0.08%
techMARK (TASX) 3,275.19 -0.04%

FTSE 100 - Risers

ITV (ITV) 171.20p 2.70%
Next (NXT) 4,936.00p 2.41%
Micro Focus International (MCRO) 2,129.00p 2.31%
Barratt Developments (BDEV) 476.10p 2.28%
Taylor Wimpey (TW.) 149.40p 2.05%
Persimmon (PSN) 1,723.00p 1.89%
Royal Mail (RMG) 464.60p 1.84%
Dixons Carphone (DC.) 335.40p 1.79%
Ashtead Group (AHT) 1,511.00p 1.75%
International Consolidated Airlines Group SA (CDI) (IAG) 444.50p 1.74%

FTSE 100 - Fallers

Antofagasta (ANTO) 696.00p -4.46%
Fresnillo (FRES) 1,234.00p -3.44%
BHP Billiton (BLT) 1,313.50p -3.03%
Mediclinic International (MDC) 703.00p -2.70%
Anglo American (AAL) 1,204.50p -2.63%
Rio Tinto (RIO) 3,067.00p -2.32%
Royal Dutch Shell 'A' (RDSA) 1,949.00p -2.04%
Randgold Resources Ltd. (RRS) 5,845.00p -2.01%
BP (BP.) 443.25p -1.99%
Royal Dutch Shell 'B' (RDSB) 2,031.50p -1.95%

FTSE 250 - Risers

SSP Group (SSPG) 371.00p 8.54%
BH Macro Ltd. GBP Shares (BHMG) 2,084.00p 6.11%
Go-Ahead Group (GOG) 2,094.00p 3.97%
Laird (LRD) 150.20p 3.73%
Berkeley Group Holdings (The) (BKG) 2,517.00p 3.67%
TalkTalk Telecom Group (TALK) 162.00p 3.12%
Bellway (BWY) 2,484.00p 2.52%
FirstGroup (FGP) 104.70p 2.45%
Tullett Prebon (TLPR) 440.00p 2.33%
Ocado Group (OCDO) 276.70p 2.29%

FTSE 250 - Fallers

AO World (AO.) 162.40p -5.03%
Henderson Group (HGG) 233.40p -3.71%
Hunting (HTG) 495.10p -3.68%
Virgin Money Holdings (UK) (VM.) 307.00p -3.22%
Kaz Minerals (KAZ) 363.90p -2.75%
Weir Group (WEIR) 1,738.00p -2.74%
Ashmore Group (ASHM) 277.00p -2.70%
Aberdeen Asset Management (ADN) 267.80p -2.55%
Countrywide (CWD) 169.80p -2.53%
Tullow Oil (TLW) 262.80p -2.41%


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US Market Report

US open: Stocks nudge higher as oil retreats ahead of OPEC meeting

US stocks inched up on Tuesday as data showed that the economy expanded more than expected in the third quarter, but oil prices retreated as uncertainty grew over an OPEC-led production cut.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average nudged higher by 0.02% to 19,100.96 points, the S&P 500 crept up 0.5% to 2,202.84 points, and the Nasdaq rose 19% to 5,379.06 points at 1521 GMT.

In commodity markets, gold on the Comex declined by 0.5% to $1,187.80 per troy ounce at 1505 GMT.

Oil prices slid as non-OPEC Russia confirmed it will not attend the cartel's meeting in Vienna on Wednesday, although it said a meeting of the group and non-affiliated producers could take place at a later stage.

Meanwhile, Indonesia's energy minister said he was "not optimistic" that OPEC would agree to cap production.

Brent crude was weaker by 3.83% to $46.46 per barrel and West Texas Intermediate edged lower by 3.9% to $45.31 at 1505 GMT.

In currency markets, the dollar was up 0.65% against the yen to 112.67, but fell 0.02% against the euro to 0.9422 and slipped 0.68% against sterling to 0.7999.

On the data front, the Commerce Department revealed that the American economy grew at the fastest rate in two years due to strong consumer spending.

Gross domestic product gained at annualised rate of 3.2% in the third quarter, more than the 3% forecast and the 2.9% initially reported.

Spreadex's Connor Campbell said neither the Dow Jones Industrial Average nor the dollar paid much attention to the third quarter GDP news, probably due to both having likely priced in December's anticipated interest rate hike from the Federal Reserve.

While the Conference Board's consumer confidence survey in November increased to 107.1 from 100.8 in October, which was ahead of the 101.5 forecast.

In company news, shares in Tiffany & Co. ticked higher by 6.4% as the jeweller reported a surprise jump in sales for first time in two years, as Japan and China offset the sales decline in the US.

Third quarter net sales edged up 1.2% to $949.3m, compared to last year, against analysts' expectations of a fall to 923.7m.

Whereas shares in Shoe Carnival plunged 10.67% after its quarterly results released late on Monday missed expectations and the retailer cut its annual guidance.

Its earnings forecast was cut to $1.46-$1.51 a share on revenue between $1.002bn-$1.006bn, from a previous forecast of $1.58-$1.65 on revenue between $1.012bn-$1.016bn.

Quarterly profit rose 3% to $9.7m, or 54 cents a share, and revenue rose 1.8% to $274.5m. Analysts expected earnings of 56 cents a share and revenue of $278.3m.


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Broker Tips

Broker tips: M&S, WPP, UK banks

Investec downgraded Marks & Spencer to 'sell' from 'hold' and cut the price target to 290p from 315p.
"Mr Rowe's strategy to reshape UK space/International is effectively a five-year restructuring story with poor near term profit and cash visibility, implemented against a consumer backdrop which looks set to deteriorate," the brokerage said.

Investec reckons the five-year plan could deliver 25% incremental earnings before interest and taxes, but this will be back-end weighted with execution risk as it is dependent on the property market.

The brokerage said it expects any profit benefits - which are unlikely until full-year 2021/22 - and ongoing operational self-help to be reinvested in "steadying the ship".

"Restructuring costs effectively mean additional cash returns are off the agenda," said the brokerage, adding that it now expects negative total shareholder return.

Investec cut its FY2017 pre-tax profit estimate to 603.4m from 623.1m and its earnings per share estimate to 29.7p from 30.5p.

It noted the shares trade on a 7% discount to their 10-year average forward price-to-earnings of 12.4x and said this discount should be wider given the risks of a consumer slowdown.

Investec's news target is based on a 20% discount to the 10-year average forward PE.



JP Morgan Cazenove on Tuesday left its rating on WPP Group at 'overweight' but cut its rating to 2,032p from 2,075p.

"We remain bullish on WPP as 1) organic revenue growth and earnings appear well supported; 2) our analysis shows little correlation between its share price with the 10-year US Treasury bond yields; and 3) valuation remains attractive," JP Morgan said.

"We have a high degree of confidence in WPP's ability to deliver earnings growth of at least +9% compound annual growth rate over the next two years and with a 8.2% equity free cash flow yield the shares remain cheap."

JP Morgan said exposure to worse trading conditions in emerging markets, which accounts for 31% of revenues, is a concern. However the bank sees a relatively easy comparative base from the second quarter of 2017 with the two-year stack of quarterly organic revenue growth in emerging markets reducing from a run-rate of 7-8% to 4-5% at the second quarter of 2016.

JP Morgan also noted that WPP is $5.3bn net new business positive as of end September 2016 with further important wins in the current quarter supporting growth next year including Walmart, Fox and Toyota Europe.



Credit Suisse initiated coverage on a number of UK banks on Tuesday, as it noted the regulatory agenda is heating up, starting with the stress test results on Wednesday, for which it reckons banks are "reasonably well placed".

It started Barclays at 'outperform' with a 260p price target, saying it presents the most significant re-rating potential as visibility on group return on tangible equity improves and the restructuring benefit to the common equity tier 1 is better understood.

CS said it is 14% and 20% ahead of consensus in terms of its profit before tax estimate for FY17 and FY18, respectively, reflecting a strong third quarter performance and a less severe deterioration in Barclays UK.

CS initiated Standard Chartered and RBS at outperform with 515p and 180p price targets, respectively.

It said StanChart's valuation assumes an 8% return on equity is possible despite the need to grow the top line 20%. "We expect continued EPS downgrades to weigh on the shares."

On RBS, it said: "The number of downside risks to EPS and capital (plus the significant share overhang) places this as a relative underperform."

Credit Suisse started Lloyds Banking Group and HSBC at 'neutral' with price targets of 65p and 600p, respectively.

It said for Lloyds, worries about Brexit are overdone but a significant re-rating is unlikely without a material surprise on dividend per share.

It noted Lloyds shares fell 36% to under 48p in the weeks after the Brexit vote and have since recovered to -18%, broadly in line with RBS.


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