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Jul 30, 2018

Looming Fed Announcement May Lead To Choppy Trading On Wall Street

 
ADVFN  World Daily Markets Bulletin
Daily world financial news Monday, 30 July 2018 10:12:04   
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The major U.S. index futures are pointing to a roughly flat opening on Monday, with stocks likely to continue experiencing choppy trading after ending last week?s trading mixed.

Traders may be reluctant to make any significant moves ahead of the Federal Reserve?s monetary policy announcement on Wednesday.

The Fed is widely expected to leave interest rates unchanged, but traders are likely to keep a close eye on the accompanying statement for clues about the outlook for rates.

The release of the monthly jobs report on Friday along with the release of some other key economic data in the coming days may also keep some traders on the sidelines.

After turning in a lackluster performance early in the session, stocks moved mostly lower over the course of the trading day on Friday. The major averages slid firmly into negative territory after ending Thursday?s trading mixed.

The major averages ended the day in the red but off their lows of the session. The Dow fell 76.01 points or 0.3 percent to 25,451.06, the Nasdaq plunged 114.77 points or 1.5 percent to 7,737.42 and the S&P 500 slid 18.62 points or 0.7 percent to 2,818.82.

For the week, the Nasdaq tumbled by 1.1 percent, while the S&P 500 climbed by 0.6 percent and the Dow jumped by 1.6 percent.

The weakness that emerged on Wall Street reflected a negative reaction to earnings news from companies such as Twitter (TWTR), Intel (INTC) and Exxon Mobil (XOM).

Meanwhile, traders largely shrugged off a report from the Commerce Department showing a significant acceleration in the pace of U.S. economic growth in the second quarter.

The report said real gross domestic product jumped by 4.1 percent in the second quarter following a 2.2 percent increase in the first quarter. Economists had expected GDP to surge up by 4.2 percent.

The faster rate of GDP growth reflected accelerations in consumer spending and exports, a smaller decrease in residential fixed investment, and accelerations in federal government spending and in state and local spending.

A separate report from the University of Michigan showed consumer sentiment deteriorated by less than initially estimated in the month of July.

The report said the consumer sentiment index for July was upwardly revised to 97.9 from the preliminary reading of 97.1. Despite the upward revision, the index was still down from 98.2 in June.

Computer hardware stocks showed a substantial move to the downside on the day, dragging the NYSE Arca Computer Hardware Index down by 3.1 percent.

Significant weakness was also visible among natural gas stocks, as reflected by the 3 percent drop by the NYSE Arca Natural Gas Index.

Biotechnology, brokerage, and real estate stocks also saw notable weakness, while oil service stocks moved to the upside on the day.


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At 10 am ET, the National Association of Realtors is scheduled to release its report on pending home sales in the month of June. Pending home sales are expected to inch up by 0.1 percent after falling by 0.5 percent in May.

A pending home sale is one in which a contract was signed but not yet closed. Normally, it takes four to six weeks to close a contracted sale.


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Stocks in Focus


Shares of Caterpillar (CAT) are moving notably higher in pre-market trading after the heavy equipment maker reported better than expected second quarter earnings and raised its full-year guidance.

Caterpillar also said it expects recently imposed tariffs to impact operating profit in the second half by up to $200 million but said it intends to largely offset the impacts with price increases.

E-commerce technology company First Data (FDC) may also move to the upside after reporting second quarter results that exceeded estimates and boosting its full-year revenue forecast.

On the other hand, shares of Bloomin? Brands (BLMN) may come under pressure after the parent of Outback Steakhouse reported better than expected second quarter earnings but weaker than expected revenues.

Synchrony Financial (SYF) may open lower after Barclays downgraded its rating on the financial services company?s stock to Equal Weight from Overweight.

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Europe


European stocks as turning in a mixed performance on Monday, as weak metal prices on concerns over slowing growth in China pull down miners but investors adopt a cautious stance ahead of key central bank meetings in the U.S., Japan and the U.K. this week.

While the U.K.?s FTSE 100 Index has inched up by 0.1 percent, the French CAC 40 Index and the German DAX Index are both down by 0.1 percent.

The Bank of Japan began its two-day policy meeting today, with analysts expecting the central bank to discuss reducing investments in ETFs tracking the Nikkei 225 Index.

The Federal Open Market Committee is widely expected to leave interest rates unchanged when it meets on Tuesday and Wednesday.

The Bank of England is set to increase U.K. interest rates by 25 basis points on Thursday, but cautious comments from Governor Mark Carney may hurt the pound.

In economic news, a gauge of Eurozone economic sentiment fell slightly in July due to increased trade tensions between the U.S. and the European Union.

Heineken NV shares have tumbled after the brewer cuts its full-year margin guidance amid an expansion into Brazil.

France's Air Liquide has also shown a notable move to the downside after its first-half operating income disappointed investors.

Meanwhile, betting group GVC Holdings has jumped after it entered into a joint venture with U.S. hotel and casino operator MGM Resorts to set up a sports and online gaming platform in the U.S.

German industrial machinery group GEA has also moved sharply higher after its second quarter earnings topped forecasts.

Deutsche Bank has also moved to the upside on news it is moving a large part of its euro clearing facility from London to Frankfurt.


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Asian markets closed mostly lower on Monday after technology stocks led a slide in U.S. stocks on Friday. The dollar held steady against its peers, while oil traded mixed after the release of U.S. GDP data and amid renewed concerns around the U.S.-China trade war.

Investor focus shifted to key central bank meetings this week. The Bank of Japan began a two-day policy meeting today, with analysts expecting the central bank to discuss reducing investments in ETFs tracking the Nikkei 225 Index.

The Federal Open Market Committee is widely expected to leave interest rates unchanged when it meets on Tuesday and Wednesday.

Chinese stocks fell, dragged down by healthcare stocks after Changchun Changsheng Bio-technology became the latest pharmaceutical company to be embroiled in a vaccine scandal.

The benchmark Shanghai Composite Index dipped 4.54 points or 0.2 percent to 2,869.05, while Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index fell 71.15 points or 0.3 percent to 28,733.13.

Japanese shares slid as investors awaited cues from the BoJ meeting and the next batch of corporate earnings. The Nikkei 225 Index gave up 167.91 points or 0.7 percent to finish at 22,544.84, while the broader Topix Index closed 0.4 percent lower at 1,768.15.

Japan Steel Works, Daiichi Sankyo, Komatsu, Hitachi Construction Machinery and Eisai slumped 2-5 percent. Kansai Electric Power tumbled 3.6 percent after posting disappointing earnings for the April-June quarter.

Banks bucked the weak trend to close mostly higher on expectations that they will benefit from possible BoJ policy tweaks. Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group and Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group rallied around 1.6 percent, while Mizuho Financial added 1.3 percent.

Australian shares ended lower after weak earnings reports from major technology companies weighed on Wall Street on Friday. The benchmark S&P/ASX 200 Index fell 21.80 points or 0.4 percent to 6,278.40, while the broader All Ordinaries Index dropped 0.36 percent to finish at 6,368.80.

The big four banks fell between 0.3 percent and 0.6 percent. BHP Billiton shed 0.6 percent after climbing over 2 percent on Friday on news of its U.S. shale assets sale to BP. Rival Rio Tinto and South32 ended down over 1 percent each.

Healthscope declined 0.9 percent after it has agreed to sell its Asian pathology business to private equity firm TPG Capital for A$279 million.

On the other hand, wealth manager AMP jumped 4.2 percent after suffering heavy losses on Friday when it issued a profit warning. Telecom firm Telstra advanced 1.8 percent after announcing management changes.


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Commodities


Crude oil futures are spiking $1.34 to $70.03 a barrel after tumbling $0.92 to $68.69 a barrel last Friday. Meanwhile, an ounce of gold is trading at $1,220.60, down $2.40 from the previous session?s close of $1,223. On Friday, gold fell $2.70.

On the currency front, the U.S. dollar is trading at 111.11 yen compared to the 111.05 yen it fetched at the close of New York trading on Friday. Against the euro, the dollar is valued at $1.1683 compared to last Friday?s $1.1657.


 
 

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Morning Euro Markets Bulletin

 
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Daily world financial news Monday, 30 July 2018 11:00:29
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London open: Stocks dip with central banks in focus
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Stocks are trading slightly lower at the start of the week, with all eyes on foreign central banks and ongoing trade negotiations around the world ahead of a keenly awaited policy announcement from the Bank of England later in the week.

"Investor sentiment is perhaps hampered by the prospect of three major interest rate policy decisions this week; Bank of Japan (Tue, 4am, rate expected unchanged, but stimulus policy could be tweaked), Fed (Weds, 7pm, no change expected) and the Bank of England (Thurs, 12pm, rate hike expected)," said Mike van Dulken and Artjom Hatsaturjants at Accendo Markets.

Overnight, the Bank of Japan stepped-in for the third time in just over week in order to keep the yield on the country's 10-year government bonds under 0.10%, offering to purchase an unlimited amount of them at that level.

Speculation on the part of traders that the Bank of Japan might announce a shift in its policy the next day was behind the recent upwards pressure on bond yields around the world, which in turn had been weighing on share prices.

Against that backdrop, the FTSE 100 was down 0.21% or 15.68 points to 7,685.31 as of 0916 BST on Monday, weighed down by the phalanx of blue chip miners amid lower copper prices, led by Anglo American and Rio Tinto. Three-month LME copper futures were off by 1.48% to $6,203.50 per metric tonne.

Looking ahead to the BoE announcement on Thursday, the consensus among economists was for a 25 basis point hike in Bank Rate, to 0.75%. UK bank shares were higher, led by Barclays and RBS.

However, by and large, markets appeared to be quite sceptical that another rate hike would follow before the end of 2019, with the uncertainty around Brexit a key factor.

According to analysts at ING, "after August, markets are barely pricing in another rate hike before the end of 2019. We suspect policymakers would prefer investors to expect an earlier move, however realistically we think the Bank will struggle to hike rates again for quite some time.

"As long as Brexit talks remain in deadlock (specifically over the Irish backstop), talk of 'no deal’ will only increase. If this starts to hit sentiment, it would complicate efforts to tighten policy further."

Analysts at Jefferies were in a similar frame of mind, saying: "It remains an open question when the UK will see a 1.5% Bank Rate again. But, there are parallels with the ECB, where going forwards there will be more focus on 2020, after both Mark Carney & Mario Draghi have moved on."

On that note, in an interview with Bloomberg published on Monday, Governor Mark Carney said he had spent a fair amount of time on contingency planning for Brexit and that now it certainly does crowd-out other factors, adding that it was taking up nearly half his time.

Also in the headlines, at the weekend Italian far-right deputy prime minister, Matteo Salvini, told The Sunday Times that his government would back the UK in its trade talks, urging Westminster to take a tougher stance in its negotiations with Brussels.

The UK also received a dose of support from China, with new foreign minister Jeremy Hunt saying on Monday that Beijing had offered to start discussions on a free trade deal with Britain.

Consumer credit and mortgage lending figures for June were set for release at 0930 GMT.

Foxtons scraps dividend, Ibstocks warns

Shares in Foxtons were moving higher despite swinging to a loss for the first half on the back of a 9.5% drop in sales, which forced it to scrap its dividend. Nevertheless, the latter may be a bit of a 'non-event', said Mike van Dulken at Accendo Markets, given how the shares were barely yielding 1% even after plummeting 44% from their April highs.

The real estate agent also said renting was showing some momentum and announced a review of its cost base, although overall sales were subdued.

Brick and tile-maker Ibstock meanwhile followed-up on what Accendo termed a "disappointing" AGM in May with a profit warning, telling shareholders that slow production had extended into July. Making matters worse, increased maintenance would be needed over the next twelve months.

Aerospace and automobile engineering group Senior bumped up its interim dividend payout by 6.8% to 2.19p, telling shareholders that trading was ahead of expectations over the six months ending on 30 June, with higher margins seen in both of its main divisions, Aerospace and Flexonics. Profits before tax were 20% higher at £39.0m (Numis: £37.0m). Free cash flow also improved, the company said, rising 9% to £32.2m, even as the firm cut net debt by £33.0m to £148.8m.

Insurer Hiscox was higher as its first-half profit before tax came out 7% ahead of consensus, driven by stronger underwriting, boosted by reserve releases.

Shares in Ladbrokes owner GVC Holdings were boosted by its new 50-50 joint venture with Las Vegas casino giant MGM Resorts International to capitalise on the new sports betting laws in the US. The pair will invest $100m apiece into the JV and said its formation would significantly increase the speed to market for both parties, lower execution risk and create "meaningful early mover advantages", getting up and running before the start of the upcoming NFL season.

CYBG confirmed that trading in the three months to 30 June was in line with its expectations on Monday, with year-to-date mortgage growth of 3.8% on an annualised basis after its third quarter to £24.2bn. The FTSE 250 firm said that as previously guided, it saw reduced mortgage drawdowns in the third quarter due to lower applications in the second quarter, with full-year mortgage growth expected to be at the lower end of its guidance range, as previously indicated. It said the all-share offer for Virgin Money was continuing to progress as planned.

Indivior erased early losses as it revealed that lawyers will be able to begin arguing the drug developer's case against Dr Reddy Laboratories in October, after the US appeals court agreed to speed up the process. Dr Reddy's is appealing after it was prevented from selling its generic version of Indivior's Suboxone Film, a treatment for opioid addiction.

Grocer Morrisons was higher after an upgrade from UBS, which moved to 'buy' from 'neutral' and upped its target prices to 300p from 225p.


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US open: Mixed trading at the bell as GDP figures do little to sway investors

Wall Sreet trading began on a mixed note at the open on Friday as investors cheered solid earnings from Amazon and eyed the release of the latest gross domestic product figures.

As of 1540 BST, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was 0.09% higher at 25,549.87, while the S&P 500 was down 0.07% to 2,835.36 and the Nasdaq was trading 0.23% weaker at 7,833.66.

Connor Campbell, a financial analyst at SpreadEx, said, "The Dow Jones opened around 0.1% higher, tickling 25,550, while the dollar shed 0.1% against both the euro and the pound."

In corporate news, Amazon rose 2.29% at the open after reporting a record profit of $2.5bn for the second quarter thanks to a solid performance from its non-retail divisions.

CMC Markets analyst Michael Hewson said: "Last night's Amazon numbers have tempered some of the pessimism behind the disappointments from Facebook and Netflix's recent numbers. Amazon beat expectations on profit and should see yesterday's 3% decline in the share price reversed when it reopens later today."

Intel Corp dropped 8.02% despite the chip giant's quarterly revenue and earnings beat expectations, while Starbucks shares ticked ahead 0.76% after its mostly in-line numbers late on Thursday.

Twitter tumbled 16.51%, wiping roughly $5bn off its market value and marking the second day in a row the Nasdaq had been dragged down by a social media stock, after the firm revealed it had lost 1m losers in its last quarter.

Chevron shares ticked ahead 0.31% despite missing on earnings and revenues, while Exxon Mobil fell 3% after the oil major reported a big miss on earnings.

Aside from earnings, the advance GDP reading for the second quarter was a big focus.

US economic growth accelerated to an annual rate of 4.1% during the second quarter, compared with a revised 2.2% in the first quarter, the Commerce Department said on Friday.

The second quarter gain, the fastest rate of growth in almost four years, fell just short of the 4.2% rate predicted by economists.

The trade sector boosted GDP, however, this was offset by a downturn in inventory investment.

Real final sales for domestic purchasers, excluding trade and inventories, rose 3.9% after a 1.9% gain in the prior quarter.

"Coming in at 4.1% at the annualised rate, America's second-quarter growth figure was actually a smidge below the forecast 4.2%. Not that it matters too much; it's still the best reading since the 5.2% posted in Q3 2014," said Campbell.

Trump said on Thursday that the figures will be "terrific" and that he would be happy with US economic growth of around 4% or more.

"Somebody actually predicted today, 5.3. I don't think that's going to happen - 5.3. If it has a 4 in front of it, we're happy. If it has like a 3 but it's a 3.8, 3.9, 3.7, we're OK," the president said in a speech about trade in Illinois.

On the other hand, consumer sentiment fell in July, according to the University of Michigan.

The index fell to 97.9 from 98.2, as both the assessment of current economic conditions and expectations fell.

However, the reading did beat consensus expectations of a 97.3 reading.

"Despite the expectation of higher inflation and higher interest rates during the year ahead, consumers have kept their confidence at high levels due to favorable job and income prospects," the University of Michigan said.


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