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Aug 16, 2017

Morning Euro Markets Bulletin

 
ADVFN  Morning Euro Markets Bulletin
Daily world financial news Wednesday, 16 August 2017 09:58:11
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London Market Report
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London open: FTSE climbs as oil rebounds and battered pound takes breather

London stocks hopped higher in early trade on Wednesday, with only five constituent companies in negative territory as oil prices rallied and a positive lead was taken from Asia as geopolitical tensions faded.
The FTSE 100 was up 50.54 points or 0.68% to 7,434.05 after just over half an hour of trading, following a flattish session on Wall Street and with the battered pound taking a breather on the ropes after many tumbles against the dollar and euro.

Traders were also looking to the release of the UK's August employment report and, later in the day, the minutes of the US central bank's most recent policy meeting.

Both reports are expected to give investors more clues regarding the outlook for monetary policy both here and Stateside in the near-term, although recent events on the Korean peninsula might yet muddy the waters.

In particular, some economists were hoping for a better indication on when the Federal Reserve might be most inclined to begin the process of 'normalising' its balance sheet.

Nonetheless, for now the consensus view appeared to be that infuriatingly low levels of inflation were expected to restrain attempts at policy tightening by the world's central bankers.

On oil, Henry Croft at Accendo Markets noted that crude prices recovered from the prior day's three-week lows as the American Petroleum Institute reported a 9.2m barrel drawdown, almost three times larger than expected.

"This bullish inventory print, complemented by a pause in the US dollar rally, has helped both Brent and US benchmarks to retain $51 and $47.40 handles respectively. Watch this afternoon's EIA inventory data for a confirmation or dispelling of API's report."

On the economic calendar for Wednesday, at 0930 BST the Office for National Statistics is scheduled to release unemployment and average weekly earnings for the three months to June.

"After witnessing July Inflation come in beneath expectations, continuing to fall from its May peak, Bank of England policymakers will likely be further put off from raising interest rates should wage growth remain stagnant at 1.8% as expected," said Croft, advising investors to watch the GBP and the FTSE.

Euro area second quarter GDP data is expected from Eurostat at 1000 BST; the possibility existed that the preliminary reading of quarter-on-quarter growth of 0.6% might be marked down to 0.5%.

This comes a day after Germany reported an acceleration in its annual growth figure to its highest level in four years, the Eurozone equivalent is expected to be confirmed at a 6-year high of 2.1%.

The minutes of the last Federal Reserve meeting are due 1900 BST.

Among individual stocks, miners were leading the rally, with BHP Billiton, Glencore, Rio Tinto and Anglo American to the fore, bouncing back after a subdued few days.

G4S was also rebounding a day after being downgraded by Morgan Stanley.

Construction outfit Balfour Beatty was up as it swung to a first half pre-tax profit of £12m from a loss of £15m last year as its more selective bidding approach started to yield results. However, chief executive Leo Quinn warned that Brexit and the weak pound it has caused were likely to reduce migrant labour at a time when a growing pipeline of major projects is likely to increase demand for skilled workers.

Prudential shares edged up after it offloaded its US independent broker-dealer network for a fee that could rise to $448m as the life insurer looks to trim some of its fat around the global. After the deal was signed off overnight, the transition is expected to be completed by the end of the first quarter of 2018.

Admiral shares tumbled as it reported a 8% jump in net revenues and a 2% rise in statutory profits before tax for the first half of the year, although it reported a higher cost of personal injury claims. The interim dividend was raised by 10% to 56.0p.

Kingfisher was one of the few fallers, a day before the retailer's interim results.

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Market Movers

FTSE 100 (UKX) 7,421.27 0.51%
FTSE 250 (MCX) 19,748.06 0.27%
techMARK (TASX) 3,408.65 0.32%

FTSE 100 - Risers

BHP Billiton (BLT) 1,362.50p 1.53%
G4S (GFS) 301.50p 1.41%
Glencore (GLEN) 335.85p 1.39%
Old Mutual (OML) 204.60p 1.29%
Rio Tinto (RIO) 3,418.50p 1.27%
Sage Group (SGE) 691.00p 1.17%
Anglo American (AAL) 1,256.00p 1.17%
3i Group (III) 952.50p 1.11%
easyJet (EZJ) 1,335.00p 0.98%
Convatec Group (CTEC) 292.60p 0.90%

FTSE 100 - Fallers

Admiral Group (ADM) 2,017p -7.40%
BT Group (BT.A) 295.35p -0.44%
United Utilities Group (UU.) 914.50p -0.38%
Severn Trent (SVT) 2,263.00p -0.26%
Kingfisher (KGF) 307.40p -0.26%
Marks & Spencer Group (MKS) 322.60p -0.09%
Bunzl (BNZL) 2,304.00p 0.00%
Carnival (CCL) 5,375.00p 0.00%
Intertek Group (ITRK) 4,810.00p 0.00%
Experian (EXPN) 1,516.00p 0.00%

FTSE 250 - Risers

Balfour Beatty (BBY) 275.90p 5.10%
Vectura Group (VEC) 115.90p 3.02%
Sirius Minerals (SXX) 27.82p 2.43%
Vedanta Resources (VED) 716.00p 2.14%
Savills (SVS) 893.50p 2.06%
Nostrum Oil & Gas (NOG) 397.50p 1.95%
Tullow Oil (TLW) 156.40p 1.82%
Ferrexpo (FXPO) 263.60p 1.74%
Petrofac Ltd. (PFC) 426.50p 1.52%
Melrose Industries (MRO) 234.40p 1.21%

FTSE 250 - Fallers

BGEO Group (BGEO) 3,289.00p -4.39%
TBC Bank Group (TBCG) 1,547.00p -2.34%
Petra Diamonds Ltd.(DI) (PDL) 88.85p -2.31%
Softcat (SCT) 393.00p -1.68%
Computacenter (CCC) 897.00p -0.94%
Galliford Try (GFRD) 1,330.00p -0.75%
Dixons Carphone (DC.) 248.10p -0.72%
Sports Direct International (SPD) 410.50p -0.63%
TR Property Inv Trust (TRY) 365.00p -0.52%

Wednesday August 16

INTERIMS
Admiral Group, Balfour Beatty, BGEO Group, CLS Holdings, Foresight Solar Fund Limited, Hochschild Mining, Lookers

INTERIM DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATE
Shoe Zone

INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTS
Building Permits (US) (13:30)
Gross Domestic Product (EU) (10:00)
Housing Starts (US) (13:30)
MBA Mortgage Applications (US) (12:00)

Q2
BGEO Group

AGMS
John Laing Environmental Assets Group Limited , Lazard World Trust Fund, Reabold Resources

UK ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTS
Claimant Count Rate (09:30)

FINAL DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATE
Halma, Majestic Wine, National Grid


Market Analysis 16/08/2017

Today's highlights: Mixed trend seen in global markets

  • Wall Street closes nearly flat: Both the S&P 500 and Dow Jones closed rather close to their opening prices, each moving less than 0.05%. The Nasdaq closed slightly lower, losing 0.11%
  • More trouble for Trump: After a press conference described as Â'erraticÂ' regarding the events in Charlottesville, two more CEOs resigned from the US PresidentÂ's Manufacturing Council.

Read More...


Europe Market Report
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Europe open: Stocks continue advance, Basic Resources bounce back

European markets have started the morning higher despite a relative dearth of fresh economic or geopolitical news.
As of 0817 BST, the benchmark Stoxx 600 was higher by 0.48% or 1.82 points to 378.32, alongside an advance of 0.68% or 83.28 points in German Dax to 12,261.78.

In parallel, Milan's FTSE Mibtel was ahead by 0.76% or 162.79 points at 21,884.72.

Meanwhile, euro/dollar was ahead by 0.16% to 1.1754.

Front month Brent crude oil futures were also gaining altitude, rising 0.86% to $51.24 per barrel after the American Petroleum Institute reportedly revealed a 9.16m barrel stockdraw for last week.

To take note of, the Stoxx 600's gauge of Basic Resource companies' shares was pacing gains with an advance of 1.27% to 410.17 despite a Bloomberg report that hedge fund manager Crispin Odey was 'shorting' metal stocks in anticipation of slower economic growth in China.

On the economic calendar for Wednesday, second quarter euro area GDP data was expected from Eurostat at 1000 BST, followed by June employment figures from ONS at 0930 BST.

To take note of, the possibility existed that Eurostat might mark down its preliminary reading of quarter-on-quarter growth of 0.6% to 0.5%.

Later in the day, the US Commerce Department was expected to release July data on housing starts and permits, followed by the minutes of the most recent Federal Reserve policy meeting at 1900 BST.

On the corporate front, shares in Carlsberg were lower after the company disappointed investors by failing to raise its full-year earnings forecasts, instead reiterating it was expecting a mid-single digit increase in profits.

Akzo Nobel reached a three-deal truce with activist hedge-fund Elliot Management.

Arcelor Mittal's South African unit was reportedly mulling layoffs in a bid to lower costs.


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US Market Report

US close: Dollar gains dampen stocks despite strong slate of data

Wall Street shifted sideways on Tuesday, with profit taking and a stronger dollar preventing any gains amid a slate of better-than-expected readings on the economy and abating geopolitical tension.
By the close the Dow Jones had added 5.28 points to 21,998.99, while the S&P and Nasdaq both dipped, by 1.23 and 7.22 points respectively.

Meanwhile, December 2017 gold futures on COMEX were 1% lower at $1,277.50/oz and the dollar gained 0.97% on the yen, as both safe haven assets were dented.

The US dollar spot index added 0.42% to 93.86, with the dollar also up 0.38% on the euro and 0.73% on sterling.

The mixed performance for stocks came as traders and analysts felt were more conciliatory remarks from Pyongyang and Washington overnight, though the VIX volatility index was little changed, ticking down by just 0.57% to 12.26, in a possible display of caution.

A statement from North Korea on Tuesday that it will wait to see what the US does before taking a decision over Guam followed a more conciliatory tone from the US administration the prior day, "may help to de-escalate the threat of conflict and reassure investors after a nervous few days. An outbreak of calm may be something to build on in terms of creating space for dialogue," said analysts at Exotix Capital.

However, they said while the world is used to "colourful and bellicose statements" from Pyongyang, they acknowledged there are reasons why the situation is now more concerning than perhaps at any other time over the past 20 years or so - namely recent weapons developments and the addition of an equally unpredictable leader on the other side of the North Pacific ocean.

David Madden at CMC Markets said the flat Wall Street stock gauges were the result of profit taking after strong finishes in the previous session. "If the political tensions surrounding North Korea continue to cool off, we could see the US markets continue their upward trends higher," he said.

Looking at the much better than expected raft of economic data out from the US, he added: "The robust economic indicators are encouraging to see, and it tells us the US economy is still ticking along nicely. Traders are not expecting another interest rate hike from the Federal Reserve this year, but today's data is a step in the right direct."

Retail sales volumes sped ahead by 0.6% on the month in July to reach $478.9bn, according to the Department of Commerce (consensus: 0.4%), following an upwardly revised gain of 0.3% in the month before.

The Federal Reserve bank of New York's regional manufacturing sector gauge rocketed from a reading of 9.8 in July to 25.2 for August (consensus: 10.0) a three-year high.

The NAHB's homebuilders' confidence index improved from the eight-month low of 64 hit in July to a reading of 68 in August (consensus: 65).

Yields on the benchmark 10-year US Treasury note rose by four basis points to 2.26% on the back of Tuesday's data.

On a related note, overnight the president of the Federal Reserve bank of New York, William Dudley, told AP another interest rate hike in 2017 was likely, so long as the economy behaved as he expected.

On the corporate front, Home Depot was in the spotlight after the DIY specialist bumped up its full-year guidance for sales and profits, projecting that they will increase by 5.3% and 13%, respectively.

Shares in Dick's Sporting Goods on the other hand crashed after the retailer posted second quarter earnings per share of 96 cents (consensus: $1.0) alongside a full-year outlook for earnings per share and same-store sales that fell short of analysts' forecasts.

TJX Companies was also trading on the front foot after reporting better-than-expected second quarter earnings and sales.

Camera maker GoPro was benefitting from an upgrade out of Goldman Sachs from 'sell' to 'neutral'.


Hargreaves Lansdown

Top of the stocks

Number of Deals Bought

Place EPIC Equity name %
1 RMG Royal Mail PLC 9.95
2 VOD Vodafone Group plc 6.42
3 GSK GlaxoSmithKline plc 5.55
4 FCSS Fidelity China Special Situations PLC 3.80
5 LLOY Lloyds Banking Group plc 2.01
6 MKS Marks & Spencer Group plc 1.85
7 SMT Scottish Mortgage Investment Trust 1.58
8 TCM Telit Communications Plc 1.46
9 UKOG UK Oil & Gas Investments plc 1.38
10 EDIN Edinburgh Investment Trust plc 1.35

Number of Deals Sold

Place EPIC Equity name %
1 TCM Telit Communications Plc 2.52
2 UKOG UK Oil & Gas Investments plc 2.51
3 LLOY Lloyds Banking Group plc 1.52
4 IQE IQE plc 1.39
5 BOO Boohoo.com 1.22
6 PURP PurpleBricks Group plc 1.13
7 SXX Sirius Minerals plc 1.08
8 GLEN Glencore plc 1.06
9 RDSB Royal Dutch Shell Plc B Shares 0.96
10 PLUS Plus500 Ltd 0.95

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Newspaper Round Up

Wednesday newspaper round-up: Help to Buy, Brexit, China, Easyjet, Glencore

The number of first-time buyers is increasing rapidly because of the support of the government's Help to Buy scheme and ultra-low mortgage rates. First-timers borrowed £5.9 billion in mortgages in June, up by 26 per cent compared with May and 9 per cent on June last year. This equated to 36,000 loans, a rise of 22 per cent from the previous month, according to UK Finance, the trade organisation. - The Times


A government plan to copy European customs controls after Brexit has run into immediate difficulties in Brussels and the UK, with ministers being accused of making unrealistic promises in pursuit of "frictionless trade". The long-awaited policy paper proposes to keep Britain in a near identical customs union with the EU for an unspecified period after departure while it seeks to negotiate a permanent arrangement that will also "mirror" much of the existing system. - Guardian

China's credit-fuelled economic strategy has been branded as dangerous by the International Monetary Fund in a strongly-worded statement warning that its approach risks financial turmoil. The IMF used its annual health check on the world's second biggest economy to stress that faster expansion in 2017 was coming at the cost of a jump in private sector debt and an increasing use of complex financial instruments. - Guardian

The UK government will insist there must be "no return to the hard borders of the past" as it publishes its proposals for ensuring goods and people can continue to travel freely between Northern Ireland and the Irish Republic after Brexit. In the latest of a series of papers covering different aspects of Britain's future relationship with the EU, David Davis's Brexit department will say it hopes to agree upfront with the EU that there will be no need for "physical infrastructure" such as new border posts. - Guardian

A Glencore unit in the Democratic Republic of Congo has admitted that it understated its copper production in a disclosure that analysts say risks fuelling suspicions among African governments that mining groups are underpaying tax. Katanga Mining, which is 86 per cent-owned by Glencore but is listed separately on the Toronto stock exchange, has applied to the Canadian regulator for trading in its shares to be halted after an external investigation into "incorrect recording" of output in 2014 and 2015. - The Times

Germany's constitutional court said yesterday that it saw "significant reasons" to believe that the European Central Bank had overstepped its mandate with its €2.3 trillion bond-buying scheme. As they referred a legal challenge to the ECB's actions to the European Court of Justice, judges at the federal constitutional court in Karlsruhe expressed doubts over whether the scheme complied with rules designed to prevent richer nations being forced to bail out weaker ones. - The Times

French pilots have claimed easyJet is risking passenger and crew safety by scheduling too many flights. Captains are being pressed into flying more hours than they are legally allowed and face intimidation if they refuse, France's pilots' union said. - Guardian

Air Berlin sought to put years of financial turbulence to an end yesterday by filing for insolvency when Etihad, its main shareholder, pulled the plug on further financial support. The German government immediately sparked controversy by announcing a bridging loan of €150 million to enable Air Berlin to keep its aircraft in the air for the next three months, including the tail end of the busy summer holiday period, and to secure the jobs of 7,200 staff while talks continue. - The Times

Institutional investors have sharply increased efforts to shame individual company directors into better behaviour by voting against their re-election, according to new figures. Revolts against single directors of FTSE 100 and FTSE 250 companies rose fivefold this year in protest against them taking too many jobs or to curb egregious pay packages. - The Times

Millions of Britons are having their health and home life put at risk because bosses are not offering them regular shift patterns, a new study by Oxford and Cambridge Universities has shown. Nearly 15 per cent of the workforce, 4.6 million people, are the victims of 'precarious scheduling' where their hours are so inconsistent that they cannot make plans, leading to stress and domestic strife. - Telegraph

David Davis's former chief of staff launched a series of Twitter tirades yesterday, accusing the Brexit secretary of leering, bullying and laziness. James Chapman, 40, claimed that Mr Davis, 68, had been "working a three-day week since day one" in the cabinet and suggested he did not bother to read the contents of his red box. - The Times

Energy companies face a fresh public battle after new findings revealed that consumers have still been overcharged by an "unacceptable" £100m as a result of billing blunders, even as complaint rates fall. The industry's second major spat in as many weeks has erupted after a survey of energy users found that around 1.3 million bill payers claim to have been overcharged by their energy supplier in the year ending in May. - Telegraph

More than 70,000 extra care home places will be needed by 2025, with pensioners now spending twice as long living without independence, a Lancet study suggests. Women over the age of 65 can now expect to spend the last three years of their lives in a care home, or receiving help several times daily, the research shows. Two decades ago, they could expect to spend the last 18 months of their lives in need of such help. - Telegraph

The number of official appeals against business rates has collapsed since the introduction of reforms branded "disastrous" by representatives of small companies. The "check, challenge and appeal" system for making an appeal against the contentious bills has made it nearly impossible to challenge calculations that may be incorrect, businesses claim. - The Times

The government is to cancel all contracts with Learndirect, the adult training provider that tried to suppress a damning regulator's report into its poor standards. The Department for Education said on Tuesday that it would withdraw all funding from the organisation, which is responsible for almost 73,000 trainees, by July 2018 and that it had already banned it from taking on new apprentices. - Guardian

The problem of native speakers "gaming the system" and taking a language exam in their native tongue has become so great that Ofqual, the exam regulator, attempted to measure it. It discovered that almost one in five candidates taking German A level was, in fact, German. In Spanish it was one in ten and French one in 11. - The Times

They may conjure images of rainy British summers, tedious scrabble games and cramped bathrooms, but sales of caravans and motor homes have boomed over the past 12 months, figures show. Although Britain's "staycation" trend is a factor behind increase, it has emerged that another, even less glamorous phenomenon is behind the rise; the housing crisis. - Telegraph

Britain's first big pumped hydroelectric power station is to undergo a £50 million refurbishment to extend its life by 20 years. The Ffestiniog plant in Snowdonia was built in 1963 and can generate 360 megawatts of electricity, enough to supply north Wales, for up to three and a half hours at a time. - The Times

 

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