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Aug 31, 2017

Evening Euro Markets Bulletin

 
ADVFN III Evening Euro Markets Bulletin
Daily world financial news Thursday, 31 August 2017 17:44:46
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GlaxoSmithKline vs. AstraZeneca

This report looks at the two largest UK pharmaceutical companies, both of which are at 2017 lows, and asks which is the better buy, if either has further to fall, which stock is right for you, and what are the city analysts saying? Losses can exceed deposits.

Download your report here

Losses can exceed deposits


London Market Report
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London close: Stocks extend bounce, but some traders wary

London stocks extended their recent bounce helped along by a strong showing in the mining sector after better-than-expected Chinese manufacturing data and a fifth session of gains for the benchmark S & P 500 in the States - although some observers remained unconvinced.
"Equity markets in Europe are extending yesterday's rally as the nervousness surrounding North Korea has waned for now. Make no mistake, the standoff between Pyongyang and Washington DC is still ongoing, but while tempers are somewhat at a standstill, the bullish sentiment will continue. Traders are using the halt in hostilities as an opportunity to pick up stocks, but how long will the buying momentum last?," said David Madden, market analyst at CMC Markets UK.

At the closing bell, the FTSE 100 was up 0.89% or 65.36 points to 7,430.62, even as Brexit concerns continued to weigh on the pound. The currency was down 0.26% versus the dollar at 1.2892 and by 0.4% against the euro at 1.0836.

Speaking after meeting the UK's Brexit minister David Davis, the European Union's point man for Brexit, Michel Barnier, said he was "quite far" from being able to recommend EU leaders start the second phase of talks when they meet in October, adding that there still did not seem to be mutual trust between the two sides.

Fortunately, a favourable reading on Chinese factory data, a degree of optimism regarding the prospect for tax reforms in the States and the launch of labour market reforms in the key euro area economy of France acted as an offset.

Market participants were also digesting comments from Bank of England rate setter Michael Saunders, who explained the thinking behind his recent votes for higher interest rates in a speech in Cardiff. Saunders, an external member of the Bank's Monetary Policy Committee, said "a modest rise" in interest rates is needed to return currently high inflation sustainably back to its 2% target.

Speaking at the Park Plaza Hotel in the Welsh capital, Saunders, who voted in the June and August MPC meetings to lift Bank Rate by 25 basis points after voting for no change at earlier meetings, said the trade-off between above-target inflation and below-potential output had "shifted markedly" in recent quarters.

Mining stocks were among the best performers, with Anglo American, Rio Tinto and Glencore all in the black after China's official manufacturing purchasing managers' index for August printed at 51.7, up a touch from 51.4 in July and above expectations for a nudge down to 51.3. A reading above 50 indicates expansion.

Elsewhere, Restaurant Group surged after it sales deteriorated as the first half of the year wore on, but the Frankie & Benny's and Garfunkel's owner served up a flat dividend as it reported early signs of improvement and broke back into the black. Many analysts had been expecting another profit warning.

Building materials distributor Grafton was in the black after it said interim pre-tax profits rose 18% to £74.1m, but it warned that recent softer trends in the UK economy are likely to be sustained over the remainder of the year.

Recruiter Hays pushed higher as it posted a rise in full-year profit and announced its first special dividend following a solid performance in Europe and a stabilisation in the UK.

Serco was boosted by an upgrade from UBS, but G4S was hit by a downgrade from the same outfit. Provident Financial slipped after Jefferies downgraded its stance on the stock and as it was ejected from the FTSE 100 in the latest quarterly reshuffle.

Ladbrokes reversed earlier gains to trade lower despite reporting a strong start of the year and a 7% jump in first-half operating profit.

Melrose Industries suffered heavy losses after swinging to a profit in the first half of the year but warning that conditions at its Brush unit had worsened, while Jimmy Choo was flat despite reporting a 174% jump in first-half profit.

G4S, Hammerson, St James's Place, Croda, Stagecoach, Auto Trader and Wood Group were all weaker as their stock went ex-dividend.


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Market Movers

FTSE 100 (UKX) 7,430.62 0.89%
FTSE 250 (MCX) 19,803.59 0.95%
techMARK (TASX) 3,418.60 0.98%

FTSE 100 - Risers

Mediclinic International (MDC) 764.50p 2.89%
Anglo American (AAL) 1,402.50p 2.82%
Hargreaves Lansdown (HL.) 1,400.00p 2.71%
Whitbread (WTB) 3,758.00p 2.62%
Shire Plc (SHP) 3,833.50p 2.32%
Centrica (CNA) 199.90p 2.25%
Smurfit Kappa Group (SKG) 2,362.00p 2.12%
Next (NXT) 4,129.00p 2.05%
AstraZeneca (AZN) 4,541.00p 1.98%
Antofagasta (ANTO) 1,035.00p 1.97%

FTSE 100 - Fallers

G4S (GFS) 283.50p -3.21%
St James's Place (STJ) 1,153.00p -1.45%
Provident Financial (PFG) 857.50p -1.01%
Tesco (TSCO) 180.90p -0.82%
Hammerson (HMSO) 561.00p -0.71%
Ashtead Group (AHT) 1,663.00p -0.54%
Croda International (CRDA) 3,842.00p -0.44%
Micro Focus International (MCRO) 2,273.00p -0.35%
Standard Chartered (STAN) 770.00p -0.32%
Fresnillo (FRES) 1,616.00p -0.25%

FTSE 250 - Risers

Restaurant Group (RTN) 346.50p 8.93%
Serco Group (SRP) 117.70p 8.38%
TBC Bank Group (TBCG) 1,686.00p 8.29%
TP ICAP (TCAP) 493.60p 6.26%
Evraz (EVR) 335.20p 6.24%
Hays (HAS) 183.00p 5.90%
Euromoney Institutional Investor (ERM) 1,096.00p 5.15%
Millennium & Copthorne Hotels (MLC) 468.40p 3.90%
Pagegroup (PAGE) 511.00p 3.82%
CLS Holdings (CLI) 222.20p 3.78%

FTSE 250 - Fallers

Polymetal International (POLY) 884.50p -5.45%
Melrose Industries (MRO) 220.00p -4.06%
Stagecoach Group (SGC) 167.10p -3.02%
Carillion (CLLN) 43.90p -2.97%
Centamin (DI) (CEY) 151.50p -2.13%
Elementis (ELM) 269.60p -1.86%
Spectris (SXS) 2,314.00p -1.70%
AA (AA.) 160.00p -1.60%
Spire Healthcare Group (SPI) 324.60p -1.40%
Dixons Carphone (DC.) 173.40p -1.31%

Market Analysis 31/08/2017

Today’s highlights: USD volatility expected

  • Wall Street closes higher: The Dow Jones, S&P 500 and NASDAQ all finished in the green yesterday. Netflix rose more than 3% and Apple hit an all-time intraday high, before reverting to slight losses.
  • Asia seen mixed: Indices were going in different directions in the East. While the Nikkei was showing gains this morning, the China50 index registered losses.

Read More...


US Market Report

US open: S & P 500 higher for a fifth day despite inflation miss

Wall Street is edging higher on the back of generally upbeat readings on the economy and ahead of the release of the all-important monthly US jobs report which was due out on the next day.
Nevertheless, readings on a key inflation index - the central bank's preferred gauge no less - underwhelmend most analysts on the Street, with potential implications for the monetary policy outlook.

The year-on-year rate of gains in the 'core' deflator for personal consumption expenditures slipped from 1.5% in June to 1.4% for last month.

Against that backdrop, as of 1501 BST the Dow Jones Industrial Average was ahead by 0.40% or 88.32 points to 21,981, alongside a 0.51% or 12.45 points rise to 2,470 while the Nasdaq Composite was rising by 0.55% or 35.0 points to 6,402.

Ahead of Thursday's PCE data, Craig Erlam, senior market analyst at Oanda, told clients: "With earnings remaining subdued - albeit on a slightly positive trajectory this year - I'm not sure we're seeing enough to convince already uncertain policy makers that the current pace of tightening is appropriate. The December meeting - the most likely timing for the final rate hike this year - is fast approaching and without an improvement in the inflation and income data soon, it may well pass with rates unchanged and expectations going forward much lower."

Unsurprisingly, while the US dollar spot index was edging up by 0.20% to 93.07, the yield on the benchmark 10-year US Treasury note was off by one basis point to 2.13% on the heels of the PCE figures.

In parallel, according to the CME's Fed Watch tool Fed funds traders were pricing in just 36.4% odds of another 25 basis point rate hike by the central bank before the year was out.

From a sector standpoint, the best performance was being seen in the following industry groups: Biotechnology (2.29%), Industrial suppliers (1.45%) and Automobiles (1.41%).

Also on the economic front, Market News International's Chicago purchasing mangers' index for August printed at 58.9, pointing to unchanged levels of activity in that area of the country. That was slightly ahead of forecasts for a dip to 58.3.

The National Association of Realtors' pending home sales index for July dropped by 0.8% on the month (consensus: 0.3%).

Initial US unemployment claims for the week ending on 31 August rose by 1,000 to 236,000 (consensus: 235,000).

Commenting on the latest claims figures, Michael Gapen at Barclays Research said: "we caution against ignoring the underlying signal: stability in claims near recovery-level lows, in our view, signals that the recent trend of solid employment gains and modest above-trend growth in activity is likely to continue."

After the deluge of data on Thursday, the next big focus will be Friday's non-farm payrolls report as investors look for clues on hiring, wages and potential inflation pressures.

Shares of Campbell Soup were on the backfoot after the New Jersey-based outfit posted a weaker than expected bottom-line amid falling sales.

Dollar General was also moving lower as investors marked down its shares after the discount retailer guided towards full-year earnings per share of between $4.35 to $4.50 (consensus: $4.50).

Dow Jones - Risers

Pfizer Inc. (PFE) $33.96 1.51%
General Electric Co. (GE) $24.58 1.24%
E.I. du Pont de Nemours and Co. (DD) $84.05 1.03%
Unitedhealth Group Inc. (UNH) $197.77 0.96%
Merck & Co. Inc. (MRK) $63.69 0.90%
Microsoft Corp. (MSFT) $74.61 0.81%
Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) $132.02 0.72%
International Business Machines Corp. (IBM) $143.47 0.64%
Intel Corp. (INTC) $35.08 0.53%
Cisco Systems Inc. (CSCO) $32.15 0.50%

Dow Jones - Fallers

Walt Disney Co. (DIS) $101.83 -1.01%
Visa Inc. (V) $103.39 -0.33%
Travelers Company Inc. (TRV) $121.53 -0.23%
United Technologies Corp. (UTX) $119.36 -0.20%
Boeing Co. (BA) $240.08 -0.16%
JP Morgan Chase & Co. (JPM) $91.20 -0.12%
3M Co. (MMM) $203.50 -0.09%
Verizon Communications Inc. (VZ) $48.13 0.01%
Wal-Mart Stores Inc. (WMT) $78.56 0.03%
Apple Inc. (AAPL) $163.59 0.15%

S&P 500 - Risers

Mallinckrodt Plc Ordinary Shares (MNK) $41.15 4.52%
Southwestern Energy Co. (SWN) $5.47 3.11%
Gilead Sciences Inc. (GILD) $83.54 2.84%
Marathon Oil Corp. (MRO) $11.20 2.75%
Allergan plc (AGN) $229.90 2.70%
Endo International Plc (ENDP) $8.78 2.69%
AutoNation Inc. (AN) $44.62 2.62%
Tenet Healthcare Corp. (THC) $17.66 2.61%
Newfield Exploration Co (NFX) $26.17 2.59%
Mylan Inc. (MYL) $31.34 2.45%

S&P 500 - Fallers

Dollar General Corp (DG) $70.53 -8.08%
Campbell Soup Co. (CPB) $47.54 -5.39%
CenturyLink Inc. (CTL) $19.81 -2.94%
Western Digital Corp. (WDC) $88.19 -2.34%
Mondelez International Inc. (MDLZ) $40.92 -1.69%
Dollar Tree Inc (DLTR) $78.42 -1.63%
Archer-Daniels-Midland Co. (ADM) $41.21 -1.55%
Martin Marietta Mtrl (MLM) $210.60 -1.50%
Vulcan Materials Co. (VMC) $120.09 -1.45%
CH Robinson Worldwide Inc (CHRW) $72.04 -1.40%

Nasdaq 100 - Risers

Gilead Sciences Inc. (GILD) $83.54 2.84%
Ulta Salon, Cosmetics & Fragrance Inc. (ULTA) $219.42 2.74%
Mylan Inc. (MYL) $31.34 2.45%
Expedia Inc. (EXPE) $146.80 2.34%
Biogen Inc (BIIB) $310.72 2.29%
Celgene Corp. (CELG) $137.32 2.22%
Wynn Resorts Ltd. (WYNN) $139.05 2.17%
Mercadolibre Inc. (MELI) $251.55 1.95%
Nvidia Corp. (NVDA) $168.75 1.85%
Shire Plc Ads (SHPG) $148.15 1.63%

Nasdaq 100 - Fallers

Ctrip.Com International Ltd. Ads (CTRP) $50.00 -5.16%
Incyte Corp. (INCY) $134.13 -2.99%
Western Digital Corp. (WDC) $88.19 -2.34%
Mondelez International Inc. (MDLZ) $40.92 -1.69%
Dollar Tree Inc (DLTR) $78.42 -1.63%
O'Reilly Automotive Inc. (ORLY) $195.61 -1.25%
Kraft Heinz Co. (KHC) $81.08 -1.04%
Paypal Holdings Inc (PYPL) $61.24 -0.87%
Applied Materials Inc. (AMAT) $45.13 -0.76%
Liberty Global Plc Lilac Class A (LILA) $25.98 -0.65%


Barclays Vs Lloyds - Which is a better Buy?

Barclays and Lloyds are two of the UK’s most popular stocks.

But which is the better buy?


In this Complimentary Guide we explain in plain English what’s really going on at these key British Banks.

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Are Lloyds shares set to rocket?
Why Barclays has a ‘secret weapon’ that could unlock serious value
How do they compare in value and safety?

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Click here for your Complimentary Guide


Hargreaves Lansdown

Top of the stocks

Number of Deals Bought

Place EPIC Equity name %
1 PFG Provident Financial plc 10.14
2 DC. Dixons Carphone plc 3.13
3 WPP WPP plc 1.79
4 CLLN Carillion plc 1.68
5 IQE IQE plc 1.64
6 GLEN Glencore plc 1.38
7 LLOY Lloyds Banking Group plc 1.29
8 SMT Scottish Mortgage Investment Trust 1.19
9 UKOG UK Oil & Gas Investments plc 1.15
10 SXX Sirius Minerals plc 1.07

Number of Deals Sold

Place EPIC Equity name %
1 PFG Provident Financial plc 7.91
2 LLOY Lloyds Banking Group plc 1.94
3 GLEN Glencore plc 1.73
4 PURP PurpleBricks Group plc 1.58
5 CLLN Carillion plc 1.24
6 TSCO Tesco plc 1.23
7 DC. Dixons Carphone plc 1.17
8 SXX Sirius Minerals plc 1.05
9 IQE IQE plc 0.92
10 UKOG UK Oil & Gas Investments plc 0.91

Broker Tips

Broker tips: Dunelm, Serco, G4S, Provident Financial

Analysts at HSBC stuck by their 'hold' recommendation on shares of Dunelm Group despite the unforeseen and hasty departure of its chief executive, John Browett, the day before.


Their expectation was for no immediate changes to the company's strategy; indeed, although Browett's focus on digital, modernising core infrastructure and the Worldstores acquisition had come at a cost, those changes were needed, the broker argued

Furthermore, HSBC put disappointing growth and margins during Browett's reign down to adverse seasonality - which it believed was now reversing.

In any case, with consumer fundamentals worsening it was now all the more necessary for the Board to reassure investors when the retailer next published its full-year numbers, on 13 September.

Linked to the above, HSBC also pointed out how Dunelm's core categories were ultimately cyclical.

HSBC kept its target for the shares at 600p.


Serco surged on Thursday after UBS upgraded its stance on the stock as it said it was turning positive on the UK outsourcing sector following a 50% underperformance since 2013.

UBS said 2018 is likely to be "a major inflection point", with growing earnings momentum expected to drive a recovery.

"After companies spent five years on cultural transformation, 2018 could see the start of a multi-year structural, but disciplined, expansion in outsourcing. This recovery story is priced in to differing degrees and so we are selective: we upgrade Serco to buy as our key way to play this theme," it said.

Serco was bumped up from 'neutral', with the price target lifted to 145p from 125p, as UBS downgraded G4S to 'neutral' from 'buy', cutting the price target to 300p from 355p.

The bank said it sees an attractive risk/reward in Serco, with a strong sales pipeline and margin recovery secure. "Execution on turnarounds can drive a sustainable profit recovery that is not priced in at current valuations," it said.



Jefferies downgraded Provident Financial to 'hold' from 'buy' and slashed the price target to 940p from 3,478p following the subprime lender's profit warning last week.

Provident issued its second profit warning in two months last week, withdrew its dividend, announced the departure of its CEO and revealed an FCA investigation into Vanquis Bank, as it transitioned to a fully-employed agent model.

Jefferies said in a note that its and management's confidence that the home credit operation could achieve medium-term pre-tax profit of £150m+ post the change to its operational model "proved to be woefully optimistic".

The bank cut its consumer credit division pre-tax profit estimate from £60.5m to a loss of £110.2m, against a guided range of an £80m to £120m loss. It downgraded its pre-tax profit estimates for the group by 59% for 2017 and by 50% for 2018, saying that the company's woes have been exacerbated by the announced FCA investigation overhang at Vanquis Bank.

 

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