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Aug 18, 2016

Morning Euro Markets Bulletin

 
ADVFN  Morning Euro Markets Bulletin
Daily world financial news Thursday, 18 August 2016 09:07:54
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London Market Report
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London open: All eyes on UK retail sales report for July

Stocks in London started higher on Thursday with select financials and miners pacing gains as investors waited on the July retail sales report.
London's FTSE 100 was trading 14.59 points higher at 6,873.74 and cable was up 0.14% to 1.3060 as of 08:25 BST.

Investors were keen to assess how, if at all, Brexit might have impacted consumer's spending habits, with traders and analysts divided as to the eventual outcome.

In any case, Markit's UK household finance index, published in the previous session, had revealed expectations regarding their future finances had recovered to a five-month high, Brexit notwithstanding.

"Concerns seem to have eased in line with the removal of some of the immediate political uncertainty arising from the shock referendum result, combined with a strong monetary policy response from the Bank of England aimed to cushion the economy and head off any lurch towards recession. In particular, those households with tracker mortgages will be seeing a swift beneficial impact on their finances," Jack Kennedy, senior economist at Markit, said.

The UK retail sales are scheduled for 0930 BST.

Traders were also digesting the minutes from the US Federal Reserve's 26-27 policy meeting released on Wednesday night showed a continued reluctance on the part of rate-setters in the US to jump to any conclusions about the state of the economy.

Policymakers were divided on the pace of rate hikes needed, meaning a September move is unlikely.

The minutes stated that, regarding the near-term outlook, members of the Fed's rate-setting "generally agreed that the prompt recovery in financial markets following the Brexit vote and the pickup in job gains in June had alleviated two key uncertainties about the outlook that they had faced at the time of the June meeting".

Commenting on the content of the minutes, Michael Gapen and Rob Martin at Barclays said: "If the August employment report, scheduled for release on September 2 (after the Economic Policy Symposium at Jackson Hole), is solid, then we expect the Fed to raise rates at its September meeting.

"That said, the concerns in some corners of the committee about the inflation outlook may support a shift in the reaction function away from observed labor market progress toward actual progress on inflation. Should this policy shift take place, then the next rate increase is likely to be deferred to December, if not further into 2017."

Back on the data front, US, initial jobless claims and the Philadelphia Fed survey are at 1330 BST, while leading indicators are at 1500 BST.

In corporate news, sales slowed only slightly in the second quarter for Kingfisher as B&Q and Screwfix grew strongly in the UK and Ireland to offset a decline in France. Chief executive Vronique Laury called the group like-for-like rise of 3.0% a "solid" sales performance, after the 3.6% gain in the first quarter, adding that management remain cautious on the short-term outlook although there had been no clear evidence of any Brexit impact on demand so far.

Having overcome a technical failure early last month, Fresnillo's San Julin milling facility has successfully begun processing ore and operations at the leaching plant were on Thursday confirmed as having run "normally" for a week.

The $515m silver-gold project has an expected average production of 10.3m ounces of silver and 44,000 ounces of gold per year once the second phase is commissioned by year-end and it reaches full capacity.

Crude oil began flowing from Tullow Oil's TEN fields offshore Ghana on time and on budget. First oil had started being pumped to its floating production offtake vessel Prof. John Evans Atta Mills from the Tweneboa, Enyenra, Ntomme (TEN), the company said in a statement.

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Market Movers

FTSE 100 (UKX) 6,874.16 0.22%
FTSE 250 (MCX) 17,821.51 0.35%
techMARK (TASX) 3,511.32 0.22%

FTSE 100 - Risers

Anglo American (AAL) 883.20p 2.02%
BHP Billiton (BLT) 1,067.00p 2.01%
Antofagasta (ANTO) 552.50p 1.84%
Rio Tinto (RIO) 2,478.50p 1.72%
Sainsbury (J) (SBRY) 238.10p 1.58%
Fresnillo (FRES) 1,957.00p 1.56%
Morrison (Wm) Supermarkets (MRW) 189.80p 1.23%
Randgold Resources Ltd. (RRS) 8,485.00p 1.19%
Dixons Carphone (DC.) 368.50p 1.04%
Rolls-Royce Holdings (RR.) 790.50p 1.02%

FTSE 100 - Fallers

Pearson (PSON) 861.00p -2.44%
Legal & General Group (LGEN) 206.90p -1.76%
British American Tobacco (BATS) 4,885.50p -1.24%
Schroders (SDR) 2,727.00p -0.80%
Imperial Brands (IMB) 4,100.00p -0.69%
Reckitt Benckiser Group (RB.) 7,455.00p -0.43%
AstraZeneca (AZN) 5,048.00p -0.41%
GlaxoSmithKline (GSK) 1,674.50p -0.36%
Unilever (ULVR) 3,611.00p -0.08%
Mondi (MNDI) 1,598.00p -0.06%

FTSE 250 - Risers

Kaz Minerals (KAZ) 176.30p 7.70%
Rotork (ROR) 206.30p 3.41%
Hochschild Mining (HOC) 303.90p 3.16%
Circassia Pharmaceuticals (CIR) 96.30p 3.10%
ICAP (IAP) 472.90p 3.05%
IMI (IMI) 1,080.00p 2.86%
Tullow Oil (TLW) 240.70p 2.82%
Thomas Cook Group (TCG) 63.20p 2.76%
AO World (AO.) 160.00p 2.63%
Vedanta Resources (VED) 547.50p 2.24%

FTSE 250 - Fallers

Evraz (EVR) 166.50p -3.70%
Laird (LRD) 297.50p -3.41%
Greggs (GRG) 1,004.00p -2.33%
The Renewables Infrastructure Group Limited (TRIG) 105.10p -2.32%
Tritax Big Box Reit (BBOX) 140.50p -2.29%
Daejan Holdings (DJAN) 5,505.00p -2.13%
Pets at Home Group (PETS) 245.80p -2.03%
Allied Minds (ALM) 361.40p -1.93%
Fidelity European Values (FEV) 177.00p -1.61%

Europe Market Report
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Europe open: Stocks egde higher; Vestas Wind surges on results

European stocks edged higher in early trade following losses in the previous session, as investors digested the latest Federal Reserve meeting minutes, which showed policymakers were in no hurry to hike interest rates.
At 0855 BST, the benchmark Stoxx Europe 600 index, Germany's DAX and France's CAC 40 were all up 0.4%.

At the same time, oil prices were firmer. West Texas Intermediate was up 0.7% at $47.10 and Brent crude was 0.2% higher at $49.96.

The minutes from the Fed's 26-27 policy meeting released on Wednesday showed a continued reluctance to jump to any conclusions about the state of the economy.

Policymakers were divided on the pace of rate hikes needed, meaning a September move is unlikely.

The minutes stated that, regarding the near-term outlook, members of the Federal Open Markets Committee "generally agreed that the prompt recovery in financial markets following the Brexit vote and the pickup in job gains in June had alleviated two key uncertainties about the outlook that they had faced at the time of the June meeting".

Lee Wild, Head of equity strategy at stockbroker Interactive Investor, said: America's economy is growing but hardly shooting the lights out. It's why Federal Reserve chiefs remain split on raising interest rates any time soon, according to minutes from the policymaker's latest meeting released overnight. That means less likelihood of a US rate hike in September, which underpins equity markets still trading only a short stroll from record highs."

In corporate news, Vestas Wind Systems surged after its second-quarter numbers beat expectations and the company lifted its full-year forecasts.

Nestle nudged just a touch higher after reporting a drop in first-half profit.

Fresnillo gained ground as it said the milling plant at its San Julin milling facility has successfully begun processing ore and operations at the leaching plant were confirmed as having run "normally" for a week.

B&Q owner Kingfisher was broadly flat as it said sales slowed only slightly in the second quarter.


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US Market Report

US close: Stocks edge up as Fed minutes confirm division

US stocks recouped mid-session losses to finish slightly higher on Wednesday as the Federal Reserve's meeting minutes showed a continued reluctance to jump to any conclusions about the state of the economy.
Having earlier slipped around 75 points, the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed almost 22 points or 0.12% higher at 18,573.94, while the S&P 500 ended the session up just over four points at 2,182.22 and the Nasdaq composite concluded just a point and half higher at 5,228.66.

Minutes from the Fed's minutes of its 26-27 July policy meeting delivered past the midway point of the session showed policymakers divided on pace of rate hikes needed, indicating a September move is unlikely.

The minutes stated that, regarding the near-term outlook, members of the Federal Open Markets Committee "generally agreed that the prompt recovery in financial markets following the Brexit vote and the pickup in job gains in June had alleviated two key uncertainties about the outlook that they had faced at the time of the June meeting".

But while the rate setters were willing to acknowledge these positives, the committee was not ready to declare an "all clear" for the next rate hike.

In particular, Barclays economists noted, some committee members remain concerned about the path of inflation.

"These participants see little evidence that inflation is responding to tighter labor markets and suggested that NAIRU [non-accelerating inflation rate of unemployment] may be even lower than currently estimated," Barclays wrote.
Moreover, several rate-setters suggested the committee would have "ample time to react" if inflation rose more quickly than currently anticipated.

This group preferred to defer another increase in the federal funds rate "until they were more confident that inflation was moving closer to 2% on a sustained basis".

Earlier in the day New York Fed head William Dudley said markets were being complacent about how much tightening would be needed over the coming year.

Oil prices warmed up after a flat start, boosted by a better than expected weekly update on the level of crude inventories in the States from the EIA, overriding reports Saudi Arabia could boost oil output to a new record in August.
West Texas Intermediate crude edged up 0.7% to $46.92 per barrel and Brent gained 1.2% to $49.81.

On the corporate front, Lowe's shares slumped after reporting quarterly earnings and revenues that fell short of analysts' estimates and lowering its full year guidance.

Staples was also in the red after the office supplies retailer forecast its 15th consecutive quarter of falling sales. It also reported a worse-than-expected drop in second quarter sales.

Target declined as it posted a drop in second quarter earnings and cut its sales estimate for the rest of the year due to a "difficult retail environment".

Cisco Systems was weaker following a report the company is planning to axe 20% of its workforce.

Biotech company StemCells tumbled following strong gains in the previous session on news it was planning to merge with Israel's Microbot Medical.


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Newspaper Round Up

Thursday newspaper round-up: British unis, Sage Group, cancer drugs

The value of commercial tie-ups between British universities and businesses has risen by more than 6 per cent to 4.2bn year-on-year, as higher education bodies seek out other ventures to compensate for leaner public funds. The Higher Education Funding Council for England (Hefce) released a range of statistics on Thursday covering the collaborations between universities and businesses in 2014-15 compared to the previous year. - Financial Times
Britain's economy will slow down but should not go anywhere close to a recession, according to economists at credit ratings agency Moody's, while growth in the rest of the world is also "stabilising." Although markets dived on the referendum result in June, stock prices have recovered and now economists also believe the impact of the vote will be relatively modest, compared with some early fears. - Telegraph

The City of London police arrested a Sage Group employee at Heathrow airport on Wednesday on suspicion of conspiracy to defraud, just two days after the FTSE 100 company revealed a data breach. The 32-year-old female's arrest follows Sage's announcement earlier this week that an internal login had been used to gain unauthorised access to around 280 customers personal details. - Telegraph

Drug companies are slashing the prices of new cancer medicines to avoid having them banned from NHS use, following the closure of the Cancer Drugs Fund. The manufacturers of four cancer drugs have dropped their prices followingclosure of the fund - a pot of money worth 340m a year to pay for drugs that the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (Nice) did not find cost-effective. - Guardian

The Federal Reserve held off on raising interest rates in July due in large part to possible long-term risks related to Britain's vote to leave the European Union. Minutes from the July meeting, which were released on Wednesday, mentioned Brexit 20 times. The economic uncertainty triggered by the referendum vote is one of a number of factors that have split the Fed's board. - Guardian

The world's largest sovereign wealth fund has cut the valuation of its UK property portfolio, which includes Regent Street in London, by 5 per cent after the Brexit vote. In a worrying sign for Britain's commercial property sector, the oil-rich Norges Bank Investment Management said it had pre-emptively decided to mark down its portfolio after "considerable uncertainty" had hit the UK property sector following the referendum. - The Times

It has now been nearly two months since Britain voted to leave the European Union. The immediate reaction to the referendum on June 23 was fast and furious. The pound fell to levels not seen since 1985, world stocks lost $2 trillion, and the UK's housebuilders lost 40 per cent of their value in two days. Economists and traders quickly slashed Britain's growth prospects and jacked up inflation forecasts. Since then, it has been difficult to determine whether such revisions have been justified. The FTSE 100 is 10 per cent above its pre-Brexit result high and the more UK-focused FTSE 250 has recovered to be 2.5 per cent from its level before the referendum. Growth in the second quarter, before the Brexit decision, came in at a forecast-busting 0.6 per cent. - The Times


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