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Aug 25, 2016

Evening Euro Markets Bulletin

 
ADVFN III Evening Euro Markets Bulletin
Daily world financial news Thursday, 25 August 2016 18:24:46
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London Market Report
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London close: Equities close in the red on pharmaceuticals, ex-divi stocks

The FTSE ended lower on Thursday, led by pharmaceutical shares and ex-dividend stocks.
Pharmaceuticals were under the cosh following comments from US presidential favourite Hillary Clinton on pharma pricing overnight.

Clinton joined senators Susan Collins and Claire McCaskill in highlighting US-based Mylan's 480% hike in the price of its EpiPen epinephrine product since the company acquired it in 2007.

Following her remarks, Mylan said it was cutting the cost of the EpiPen 2-Pak through the use of a savings cards that will cover up to $300, effectively halving the price.

The news hit sector peers including FTSE 100 listed drug makers Hikma Pharmaceuticals, Shire and AstraZeneca.

Meanwhile, Dixons Carphone, Hammerson, Taylor Wimpey and Carnival also weighed on the FTSE as the stocks went ex-dividend.

On the upside, building materials group CRH rallied after winching its half-year dividend a touch higher as it reported the early stages of an economic recovery in Europe.

Broadcaster ITV was also on the front foot as it withdrew its proposed acquisition of Peppa Pig owner Entertainment One, refusing to up its offer after its initial bid was rejected, potentially leaving the door open for rumoured private equity bidder KKR. Entertainment One's shares plunged.

On the macro-economic front, data showed UK gross mortgage lending fell in July as house purchase activity slowed in the aftermath of Britain's vote to leave the European Union. The Council of Mortgage Lenders said gross mortgage lending dropped 0.9% year-on-year and 0.1% month-on-month in July to £21.4bn compared to £21.5bn in June.

Elsewhere, German business confidence unexpectedly deteriorated in August, according to a widely-followed survey. The Ifo Institute's business climate index fell to 106.2 from 108.3 in July, missing expectations for a reading of 108.5.

Stateside, US durable goods orders jumped 4.4% in July, beating expectations for a 3.4% increase and following a 4.2% decline in June, the Commerce Department said.

The Labor Department revealed a better-than-expected report on weekly jobless claims. US initial jobless claims declined by 1,000 from the previous week's unrevised level to 261,000, beating expectations for a jump to 265,000.

Markit's flash US services purchasing managers' index missed forecasts. The PMI printed at 50.9 in August, remaining above the 50.0 threshold that separates contraction from expansion but below July's 51.4. This marked the lowest level since February and was weaker than consensus expectations for a reading of 52.0.

The mixed US data comes ahead of the Fed's Jackson Hole conference on Friday. Fed chair Janet Yellen's speech will be in focus for any remarks on whether the central bank feels the economy has strengthened enough to warrant an interest rate hike this year.

However, Neil Wilson, market analyst at ETX Capital, said "don't expect much from Jackson Hole".

"The Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City's annual economic policy symposium is a serious, sombre affair. It is not a policy meeting, nor is it meant to drive expectations for future policy decisions. It's a talking shop and we should take the goods on offer with a healthy dose of salt.

"Markets are incredibly quiet this August (in sharp contrast to last year) so investors are latching on to anything they can, which gives this meeting a lot more attention than it probably deserves. Investors will hang on every word uttered by Janet Yellen, the Federal Reserve chair."

Before Jackson Hole, Kansas City Fed President Esther George told CNBC she believes it is time to increase interest rates. However, she stressed: "It doesn't mean I favour high rates. It doesn't mean I think it needs to happen rapidly."


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Market Movers

FTSE 100 (UKX) 6,817.85 -0.26%
FTSE 250 (MCX) 17,867.00 -0.82%
techMARK (TASX) 3,469.90 -0.87%

FTSE 100 - Risers

CRH (CRH) 2,540.00p 2.88%
Marks & Spencer Group (MKS) 346.90p 2.63%
Sky (SKY) 875.00p 1.86%
Ashtead Group (AHT) 1,257.00p 1.37%
WPP (WPP) 1,803.00p 1.29%
National Grid (NG.) 1,075.00p 1.08%
United Utilities Group (UU.) 978.50p 0.98%
Unilever (ULVR) 3,559.50p 0.94%
Severn Trent (SVT) 2,414.00p 0.88%
Mondi (MNDI) 1,586.00p 0.76%

FTSE 100 - Fallers

Hikma Pharmaceuticals (HIK) 2,150.00p -3.50%
Dixons Carphone (DC.) 375.00p -3.10%
Hammerson (HMSO) 573.50p -2.88%
Glencore (GLEN) 179.05p -2.69%
Taylor Wimpey (TW.) 164.20p -2.55%
Shire Plc (SHP) 4,902.00p -2.45%
Rolls-Royce Holdings (RR.) 773.00p -1.97%
International Consolidated Airlines Group SA (CDI) (IAG) 394.20p -1.87%
Capita (CPI) 1,042.00p -1.79%
Paddy Power Betfair (PPB) 9,565.00p -1.75%

FTSE 250 - Risers

Aldermore Group (ALD) 160.10p 8.91%
Shawbrook Group (SHAW) 220.00p 7.68%
John Laing Group (JLG) 252.70p 6.94%
OneSavings Bank (OSB) 288.30p 3.97%
Playtech (PTEC) 928.00p 3.17%
Ibstock (IBST) 180.40p 3.09%
Spire Healthcare Group (SPI) 352.00p 2.62%
CLS Holdings (CLI) 1,538.00p 2.53%
Smurfit Kappa Group (SKG) 1,873.00p 2.52%
CMC Markets (CMCX) 276.70p 2.41%

FTSE 250 - Fallers

Entertainment One Limited (ETO) 215.70p -14.00%
Allied Minds (ALM) 383.90p -6.14%
Euromoney Institutional Investor (ERM) 1,025.00p -5.18%
Hochschild Mining (HOC) 270.00p -4.93%
Carillion (CLLN) 282.00p -4.79%
Just Eat (JE.) 545.00p -4.22%
Ascential (ASCL) 258.20p -3.80%
Countrywide (CWD) 262.40p -3.32%
PayPoint (PAY) 987.50p -3.19%

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Europe Market Report
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Europe close: Investors wary ahead of possibly key Fed speech

European stocks pushed lower as traders took some money off the table ahead of an eagerly-awaited speech by Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen the next day and following disappointing German data.
The benchmark Stoxx Europe 600 retreated 0.84% or 2.91 to 342.02 and Germany's DAX fell 0.88% to 10,529.59, while France's CAC 40 lost off 0.65% to finish the day at 4,406.61.

Oil prices were a touch firmer. West Texas Intermediate was up 0.701% to $47.10 a barrel while Brent edged higher 0.9% to $49.49.

Investors were also asked to digest news that German business confidence unexpectedly deteriorated in August.

The Ifo Institute's business climate index fell to 106.2 from 108.3 in July, missing expectations for a reading of 108.5.

The expectations index dropped to 100.1 from 102.1, falling short of forecasts of 102.5.

Finally, the index of current conditions missed estimates of 114.9, printing at 112.8 from 114.8 in July.

"The German economy has fallen into a summer slump," the Ifo said.
Stephen Brown, European economist at Capital Economics, said: "August's sharp fall in the German Ifo survey points to a slowdown in German economic growth.

"Both the current conditions and expectations balances of the Ifo survey fell, suggesting not only that growth might have decelerated in Q3, but also that conditions are unlikely to pick up over the later stages of the year."

Market participants were also jittery ahead of Yellen's speech at the Fed's annual symposium at Jackson Hole, Wyoming, on Friday as they look for clues on the timing of an interest rate hike.

Dave Jeal, head of investment products at stockbroker Interactive Investor said: "The interest rate move is pretty certain to be up and should already be priced into markets. And to a degree it is - but the market is only pricing in a 28% chance of a rise in September. However some Fed members are signalling that a rise is far more likely than the market thinks. A real disconnect has developed.

"Will Yellen's remarks remove the uncertainty, or will she hedge her bets? With the US election in November, if rates don't move now, the Fed is unlikely to be able to move much before the year end."

In corporate news, Handelsbanken edged lower after it sold its voting stake in investment-holding company AB Industrivarden.

On the upside, German market research firm GFK surged following a media report that its majority owner is considering a merger or a sale.

Offshore drilling company Seadrill reversed early losses to close higher even after reporting a 31% drop in net profit in the three months to the end of June.

Supermarket chain operator Ahold Delhaize was in the black after better-than-expected second-quarter earnings.


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US Market Report

US open: Stocks fall after mixed data ahead of Jackson Hole

US stocks fell on Thursday as traders weighed mixed economic data ahead of the Federal Reserve's annual conference.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.10% to 18,464.08 points, the S&P 500 dropped 0.10% to 2,173.05 points and the Nasdaq slid 0.08% to 5,213.23 points.

At the same time oil prices wavered amid worries about oversupply with West Texas Intermediate crude down 0.08% to $46.73 per barrel and Brent crude up 0.06% to $49.08 per barrel.

US durable goods orders jumped 4.4% in July, beating expectations for a 3.4% increase and following a 4.2% decline in June, the Commerce Department revealed.

Meanwhile, the Labor Department revealed a better-than-expected report on weekly jobless claims.US initial jobless claims declined by 1,000 from the previous week's unrevised level to 261,000, beating expectations for a jump to 265,000.

In contrast, Markit's flash US services purchasing managers' index missed forecasts. The PMI printed at 50.9 in August, remaining above the 50.0 threshold that separates contraction from expansion but below July's 51.4. This marked the lowest level since February and was weaker than consensus expectations for a reading of 52.0.

The data comes ahead of the Fed's Jackson Hole conference on Friday. Fed chair Janet Yellen's speech will be in focus for any remarks on whether the central bank feels the economy has strengthened enough to warrant an interest rate hike this year.

However, Neil Wilson, market analyst at ETX Capital, said "don't expect much from Jackson Hole".

"The Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City's annual economic policy symposium is a serious, sombre affair. It is not a policy meeting, nor is it meant to drive expectations for future policy decisions. It's a talking shop and we should take the goods on offer with a healthy dose of salt.

"Markets are incredibly quiet this August (in sharp contrast to last year) so investors are latching on to anything they can, which gives this meeting a lot more attention than it probably deserves. Investors will hang on every word uttered by Janet Yellen, the Federal Reserve chair."

In corporate news, Tiffany & Co. shares rallied after the luxury jeweller's second-quarter profit came in ahead of expectations.

Discount chain Dollar Tree slumped after revealing quarterly sales that fell short of analysts' estimates, blaming a "challenging" retail environment.

Medtronic declined as it reported an increase in quarterly profit that exceeded forecasts, although sales fell across most its segments.

Workday shares surged after the software company's second-quarter earnings released late on Wednesday beat expectations.


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Broker Tips

Broker tips: Playtech, Aldermore, Shawbrook, Just Eat

Playtech shares gained on Thursday as Canaccord Genuity raised its target to 1,125p from 902p and reiterated a 'buy' rating on the stock after the gambling software developer reported its first half results.
In the six months to the end of June, revenues rose to €337.7m from €286m, up 18% or 24% at constant currency. However, net profit declined to €48.8m from €83.9m, down 42% on a reported basis, but up 84% at constant currency, taking a hit from fluctuations in sterling.

The company declared a special dividend of €150m, or 46 cents per share to be paid in December and lifted its interim dividend by 15% to 11 cents per share.

The gaming division generated revenue of €306.4m, up from €275.4m in the first half of 2015, while the financials division saw revenue of €31.3m compared to €10.6m.

Canaccord said Playtech delivered "another impressive set of results, comfortably ahead of forecasts" and views the shares as the "stand-out value play in the online gaming sector".

The broker said trading remains strong in the second half with revenues in gaming up 12% so far in the third quarter. The company will also benefit from the acquisition of Best Gaming Technology last month as well as incremental cost savings in financial trading and services, Canaccord said.

Canaccord lowered its estimate on group revenues for 2016 to €741.5m from a prior estimate of €746.7m due to lower sales at the financial trading division. However it raised its earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) forecast to €305.7m from €302.5m, despite Brexit foreign exchange headwinds, driving normalised earnings per share up 2% to 72.0 cents from 70.9 cents.

"Playtech has continued to outperform the UK MidCap market (up 8% year-to-date), but still looks particularly cheap on an estimated fiscal year 2017 enterprise value /EBTIDA of 9.5x (after adjusting for the special dividend) and a cash adjusted price-earnings ratio of 11.0x.

"We think this looks too low for a technology leader, particularly given the balance sheet to fund material additional M&A (we project €400m of net cash, plus €234m of short-term investments)."



Challenger banks Aldermore and Shawbrook got a boost on Thursday as Bank of America Merrill Lynch lifted its recommendations on the stocks to 'buy' from 'neutral'.

BofA said the introduction of the Bank of England's term funding scheme (TFS) along with a reduction in the UK macroeconomic downside risk has significantly reduced the tail-risk in the specialist lenders.

"Some fiscal stimulus has been promised by the new UK government. We think some changes to stamp duty could be one logical shift in policy, which would help the property market and increase mortgage lending. The challengers would benefit most, we think."

BofA Merrill Lynch said the UK's vote to leave the European Union has caused a big drop in Aldermore's share price, along with expectations of a recession and lower interest rates.

However, it pointed out that Aldermore has reacted by reducing underwriting risk.

"Its liability mix means it is a beneficiary of lower rates. While risks remain, we think the BoE's TFS reduces tail-risk giving us more confidence in Aldermore's business model."

As far as Shawbrook is concerned, it said a combination of origination growth, cost control and quality underwriting has allowed management to target a return on equity of more than 22%.

"While Brexit looks to have hurt, the immediate outlook the BoE TFS reduces tail risk and Shawbrook's liability structure means that it is able better protect net interest margin than most."



Just Eat shares were under the cosh on Thursday as Barclays downgraded the stock to 'equal weight' from 'overweight' and raised its target to 630p from 550p.

Barclays said it has upgraded its estimates and price target to reflect the "strong first half execution" but believes the outperformance of the shares is not enough to keep its 'overweight' rating.

Just Eat on 28 July reported a 107% surge in first half underlying earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) to £53.4m on a 59% increase in revenues to £171.6m. The company said active users jumped 45% to 15.9m and orders soared 55% to 64.9m.

Following the results Barclays has upgraded its earnings per share forecast for fiscal year 2016 to 11.3p from a previous estimate of 10.2p.

"Our 2016 estimates suggest Just Eat will have delivered a three-year compound annual growth rate in revenue and EBITDA of 57% and 99%, respectively. This has been driven by positive estimate momentum as a result of Just Eat's strong market positioning and solid execution."

Barclays said the online takeaway ordering service has delivered "consistent upgrades" since its initial public offering in April 2014. Its consensus estimates for fiscal year 2016 EBITDA have risen 80% since May 2014.

However, the bank said: "While we still see some upside to Just Eat's conservative guidance as it continues to outmanoeuvre the competition, this is likely to be at a slower pace.

 

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