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Aug 31, 2016

Evening Euro Markets Bulletin

 
ADVFN III Evening Euro Markets Bulletin
Daily world financial news Wednesday, 31 August 2016 20:11:07
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London close: Miners lead stocks lower as oil prices plunge

London stocks fell on Wednesday, led by mining shares, as oil prices tanked and as traders sifted through mixed economic data.
The FTSE 100 closed down by 39.28 points or 0.58% at 6,781.51. The pound rose 0.31% against the dollar to $1.3121.

At the same time, oil prices fell after official data showed weekly crude inventories rose more than expected, adding to worries about the global supply glut. The Energy Information Administration said crude inventories increased by 2.3m barrels last week to 525.9m barrels, more than the forecast for a 1.3m gain.

Brent crude plunged 2.5% to $47.10 per barrel and West Texas Intermediate dropped 3.1% to $44.94 per barrel at 1609 BST.

IG market analyst Joshua Mahony said: "The ghost of oversupply has not been laid to rest, indeed it seems to be returning with a vengeance. A rising US dollar and falling oil prices would potentially be a dangerous combination, threatening to unwind the gains made in equity markets over the summer. OPEC needs to do something, and quickly, but given their inability to reach a compromise, any action is still unlikely."

Mining stocks were the biggest fallers on the FTSE as analysts at Clarksons Platou Securities said iron ore prices could drop below $50 a metric ton before the year-end, although their peers at Macquarie appeared to be more sanguine.

Anglo American, Fresnillo and Antofagasta shares nevertheless declined.

Analysts at Maquarie reaffirmed their view that iron ore prices would stabilise closer to $50 per tonne, pointing to a recent pick-up in the total shipping rate for iron ore to back-up their assessment.

BHP Billiton slumped on news it is set to strip chief executive Andrew Mackenzie of his annual bonus following the publication of a report into failures at the mining group's Brazilian joint venture that led to last year's collapse of a dam that killed 19 people.

Going the other way, banking stocks rallied following reports Deutsche Bank and Commerzbank had held talks on a potential merger but concluded it wasn't a viable option.

Barclays, HSBC, Lloyds and Royal Bank of Scotland were on the FTSE 100 leader-board.

Elsewhere, Restaurant Group shares fell as Citigroup downgraded its stance on the stock to 'sell' from 'neutral' and cut the price target to 320p from 350p.

Grafton Group edged lower as the builders merchant warned of a challenging backdrop in UK merchanting.

On the data front, GfK's headline UK consumer confidence index rose five points to -7 in August, which was slightly above consensus expectations of -8 but still well below the 12-month average of -1.

All five measures used to calculate the index increased in August, with the index of major purchases up nine points at +7 and the personal financial situation index up one point to 0.

In contrast, UK business confidence dipped in August, according to a survey. The Lloyds Business Barometer fell to 16% in August from 29% in July amid worries about Brexit affecting the economic outlook.

Nationwide revealed UK house price growth accelerated in August at 5.6% year-on-year and 0.6% month-on-month, compared to July's 5.2% year-on-year and 0.5% month-on-month gains.

In the Eurozone, the flash estimate of inflation came in lower than expected for August. Eurostat said inflation was stable compared with July at 0.2%, which was below economists' expectations of 0.3%, as prices of food, industrial goods and services rose less than the previous month. Core inflation - which strips out energy - was down to 0.8% from 0.9%, below estimates for it to remain unchanged.

Stephen Brown, European economist at Capital Economics, said: "The unchanged headline inflation rate in August highlights the fact that price pressures in the Eurozone remain weak and boosts the case for more monetary easing from the ECB."

The euro area unemployment rate came in at 10.1%, steady compared to June and down from 10.8% in July last year. It fell short of analysts' expectations for a nudge down to 10%.

In the US, private employers added 177,000 jobs in August, more than the 175,000 expected by analysts, the ADP revealed. July was revised to194,000 jobs from a previous estimate of 179,000.

The report comes ahead of the US Labor Department's non-farm payrolls report, which will be closely scrutinised after Federal Reserve chair Janet Yellen said the next interest rate hike depends on the strength of incoming data.

"The afternoon's main piece of data, the ADP non-farm employment change figure, failed to provide investors with much guidance for either Friday's government-released number or the likely timeline of a Fed rate hike," said Connor Campbell, financial analyst at Spreadex.

US pending home sales rose more than expected in July, but June's figure was revised down, according to data from the National Association of Realtors (NAR).

The NAR's monthly index increased 1.3% to 111.3 in July from a downwardly-revised 109.9 in June, beating expectations for a 0.7% jump.

Separately, data showed economic activity in the Chicago area deteriorated more than expected in August.The Chicago Purchasing Managers' index fell to 51.5 from 55.8 in July, led by a large setback in order backlogs and a deceleration in new orders. Economists had been expecting a smaller decline to 54.0.


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Market Movers

FTSE 100 (UKX) 6,781.51 -0.58%
FTSE 250 (MCX) 17,732.77 -0.64%
techMARK (TASX) 3,442.45 -0.63%

FTSE 100 - Risers

Berkeley Group Holdings (The) (BKG) 2,672.00p 2.97%
TUI AG Reg Shs (DI) (TUI) 1,063.00p 2.31%
Tesco (TSCO) 166.35p 1.87%
Barclays (BARC) 172.25p 1.83%
Standard Life (SL.) 364.50p 1.67%
Direct Line Insurance Group (DLG) 369.00p 1.54%
Standard Chartered (STAN) 642.00p 1.47%
Babcock International Group (BAB) 1,046.00p 1.36%
HSBC Holdings (HSBA) 564.30p 1.22%
Marks & Spencer Group (MKS) 344.70p 1.09%

FTSE 100 - Fallers

Fresnillo (FRES) 1,606.00p -4.97%
BHP Billiton (BLT) 989.90p -4.86%
Anglo American (AAL) 779.80p -4.61%
Antofagasta (ANTO) 494.70p -3.28%
Randgold Resources Ltd. (RRS) 7,150.00p -2.85%
International Consolidated Airlines Group SA (CDI) (IAG) 383.00p -2.49%
Bunzl (BNZL) 2,358.00p -2.28%
Travis Perkins (TPK) 1,665.00p -2.17%
Royal Dutch Shell 'A' (RDSA) 1,860.50p -2.13%
Rio Tinto (RIO) 2,301.00p -2.11%

FTSE 250 - Risers

St. Modwen Properties (SMP) 285.50p 4.07%
Safestore Holdings (SAFE) 372.30p 2.62%
Aldermore Group (ALD) 163.50p 2.00%
Polypipe Group (PLP) 293.80p 1.90%
P2P Global Investments (P2P) 837.50p 1.89%
Wizz Air Holdings (WIZZ) 1,597.00p 1.78%
CMC Markets (CMCX) 284.40p 1.75%
DFS Furniture (DFS) 270.90p 1.73%
Homeserve (HSV) 566.00p 1.71%
Unite Group (UTG) 626.50p 1.70%

FTSE 250 - Fallers

Grafton Group Units (GFTU) 547.50p -9.95%
Allied Minds (ALM) 324.80p -7.49%
Restaurant Group (RTN) 372.50p -5.93%
Polymetal International (POLY) 1,053.00p -5.56%
Hochschild Mining (HOC) 240.60p -5.54%
Carillion (CLLN) 260.20p -4.41%
Inmarsat (ISAT) 771.00p -4.22%
Centamin (DI) (CEY) 148.50p -3.76%
Vedanta Resources (VED) 491.70p -3.68%
Tullow Oil (TLW) 217.90p -3.67%

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Europe close: Stocks mixed amid poor economic data

European stocks were mixed on Wednesday as investors digested some uninspiring eurozone inflation and unemployment data, ahead of Friday´s key US jobs report and weighed down by a fall oil prices.
The benchmark Stoxx Europe 600 index closed , Germany's DAX was 0.61% weaker and France's CAC 40 was down 0.43%. Milan´s FTSE Mibtel on the other hand gained 0.31%.

Oil prices were in a funk following a second consecutive week of increasing stockpiles in the States. West Texas Intermediate was down 3.7% to $44.71 a barrel while Brent crude was 2.8% lower at $47.04.

In terms of sectors, miners were under pressure after analysts at Clarksons Platou Securities said iron ore prices could drop below $50 a metric ton before the year-end. The Stoxx 600 basic resources index fell 2.7%.

In corporate news, Commerzbank and Deutsche Bank racked up healthy gains after Germany's Manager Magazin reported that DB had in the past looked at the possibility of a merger with Commerzbank. However, Deutsche's chief executive later dismissed the idea.

Nevertheless, the Stoxx 600 gauge of bank stocks gained 1.79%.

Iliad was on the front foot as the French phone carrier posted a rise in first-half sales and earnings.

French telecommunications company Bouygues was also in the black as it said net profit in the second quarter increased and stuck to its full-year revenue and earnings targets.

888 Holdings rallied as favourable sports results and strong casino winnings lifted its first-half numbers, helping to make up for its failed plot to buy William Hill.

Diploma edged higher as it said underlying sales grew 2% in the year to September, with acquisitions and the weak pound helping to lift statutory revenues 14%.

FTSE 250 builders merchant Grafton Group tumbled as it reported a rise in first-half pre-tax profit as revenue grew thanks in part to strong performances in the Netherlands and Ireland, but warned of a challenging backdrop in UK merchanting.

On the macroeconomic front, data from Eurostat showed the eurozone unemployment rate was unchanged in July.

The unemployment rate came in at 10.1%, steady compared to June and down from 10.8% in July last year. It fell short of analysts' expectations for a nudge down to 10%.

Meanwhile, inflation in the block came in lower than expected for August, according to a flash estimate by Eurostat, which could prompt the European Central Bank into action.

Year-over-year consumer price inflation was stable compared with July at 0.2%, which was below economists' expectations of 0.3%, as prices of food, industrial goods and services rose less than the previous month.


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US Market Report

US open: Stocks fall as investors shrug off upbeat private payrolls data

US stocks fell on Wednesday as investors shrugged off better-than-expected private payrolls data and looked ahead to the more important non-farm payrolls report.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average shed 0.27% to 18,409.44 points, the S&P 500 dropped 0.26% to 2,170.49 and the Nasdaq slipped 0.20% to 5,212.59 points at 1530 BST.

At the same time oil prices fell as data showed weekly crude inventories rose more than expected, with West Texas Intermediate crude down 0.91% to $45.93 per barrel and Brent down 1.17% to $47.81 per barrel at 1536 BST. The Energy Information Administration said crude inventories increased by 2.3m barrels last week to 525.9m, more than the forecast for a 1.3m gain.

US private employers added 177,000 jobs in August, more than the 175,000 expected by analysts, the ADP revealed. July was revised to194,000 jobs from a previous estimate of 179,000.

The report comes ahead of the US Labor Department's non-farm payrolls report, which will be closely scrutinised after Federal Reserve chair Janet Yellen said the next interest rate hike depends on the strength of incoming data.

"The afternoon's main piece of data, the ADP non-farm employment change figure, failed to provide investors with much guidance for either Friday's government-released number or the likely timeline of a Fed rate hike," said Connor Campbell, financial analyst at Spreadex.

"Coming in at 177k the reading was a tad higher than the 174k expected, but a fair bit lower than the upward-revised 194k from last month. As shown by that revision it is difficult to use the ADP figure as an accurate gauge for the actual non-farm jobs report, with it usually failing to pre-emptively reflect the kind of swings seen in the Friday-favourite. "

Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren said on Wednesday at an event in China that the central bank was close to achieving its employment and inflation target, hinting that policy tightening is on the horizon.

In contrast, Chicago Fed President Charles Evans suggested he was in no rush to tighten policy while speaking at the same event.

Meanwhile, US pending home sales rose more than expected in July, but June's figure was revised down, according to data from the National Association of Realtors (NAR).

The NAR's monthly index increased 1.3% to 111.3 in July from a downwardly-revised 109.9 in June, beating expectations for a 0.7% jump. The index is now at its second-highest level this year after April's 115.0.

Separately, data showed economic activity in the Chicago area deteriorated more than expected in August.

The Chicago Purchasing Managers' index fell to 51.5 from 55.8 in July, led by a large setback in order backlogs and a deceleration in new orders. Economists had been expecting a smaller decline to 54.0.

On the company front, Palo Alto Networks Inc. shares fell after the cybersecurity firm late Tuesday issued a downbeat outlook on the current quarter.

AeroVironment Inc. slumped after the drone maker reported a 23% drop in quarterly revenue.


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Broker Tips

Broker tips: Restaurant Group, AB Foods, Petrofac

Restaurant Group shares fell on Wednesday as Citigroup downgraded its stance on the stock to 'sell' from 'neutral' and cut the price target to 320p from 350p.
The bank said that while there may be valuation support on a sum-of-the-parts basis, the company still faces significant trading headwinds, with limited near-term positive catalysts.

"Whilst we think recent management appointments of a new CFO and CEO are positive steps in the group's rehabilitation, we suggest there could be further store closures and exceptional costs as new management looks to revitalise the leisure operations."

"Restaurant Group's share price has bounced over 50% of late. Given this significant move, and our view that the group faces ongoing operational headwinds, we downgrade the stock to sell."

Last week, Restaurant Group said it swung to a pre-tax loss in the first half on the back of restructuring costs as it announced the closure of outlets.

In the 27 weeks ended 3 July, the group posted a loss before tax of £22.5m compared to a pre-tax profit of £38m the year before.

Meanwhile, like-for-like sales were down 3.9%, and Restaurant Group said it plans to exit 33 underperforming sites immediately as it reckons they are incapable of generating adequate returns.



Berenberg downgraded its rating on Associated British Foods to 'hold' from 'buy' but lifted its target to 3,000p from 2,760p on Wednesday.

The broker said AB Foods shares are up 25% since hitting a post-Brexit vote low of 2,350 on 27 June when Berenberg upgraded the stock to 'buy' to reflect an "absurdly" low valuation of 20x price-earnings ratio in comparison to mid-2015 levels of over 30x.

"FX movements aside, little had changed in the underlying business during the period and indeed the outlook for group profits was being supported by a significant step-up in world sugar prices over the last year," Berenberg said.

On Berenberg's new forecasts, ABF trades on 25x calendar year 2017 price-earnings ratio, which the broker believes is "fair" for a 9% three-year forward earnings per share (EPS) compound annual growth rate.

In its third quarter update in early July, AB Foods said the UK's exit from the European Union will have limited impact on its business.

Since the referendum, the main impact on the group has been related to foreign exchange with the pound down 10% against the dollar and the euro. As a result ABF said it "no longer expects" to see a decline in the group's EPS due to the positive translation effect of profits outside the UK and no material impact on margins.

Berenberg estimates the group will also benefit from an increase in sugar profit.

The broker expects about 45% of AB Food's total sugar volumes and 35% of divisional sales come from its European operations.

"World sugar prices have increased by over 60% from the seven-year low levels in September 2015 supported by the prospect of a global supply deficit due to El-Nino-related dry conditions in some key markets."

Berenberg believes the company can achieve €550 per tonne on average, which would support an estimated £165m earnings before interest and tax in sugar for 2017.

"Our EPS forecasts increase by 3-5% in the outer years reflecting our expected increased Sugar profit impact and 3% growth in 2016.

"On a relative basis, the stock is trading on a 75% premium to the market compared to its 65% average premium since 2010 and on a 30% premium to European consumer staples compared to the its 25% average since 2010."



Deutsche Bank reiterated a 'hold' rating on Petrofac and raised its target to 900p from 770p on Wednesday.

The bank said the oil and gas services company is "slowly getting back on course but end market recovery remains elusive".

Petrofac's end markets offer little evidence of any pickup despite projects supposedly moving closer to realising awards, Deutsche Bank said.

Deutsche Bank said since there is a scarcity of awards, focus remains on reducing capital intensity and net debt via the disposal of Integrated Energy Services assets. Petrofac has exited the Berantai RSC contract in Malaysia and the Ticleni PEC contract in Romania to refocus on its core markets and reduce net debt.

"But these processes are unwieldy and likely to drag, weighing on earnings and crucially sentiment," the bank said.

"The valuation isn't stretched but getting back to its roots is slow and signs of an end market pickup is unclear,' hold'."

 

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Morning Euro Markets Bulletin

 
ADVFN  Morning Euro Markets Bulletin
Daily world financial news Wednesday, 31 August 2016 09:36:09
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London Market Report
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London open: Stocks flat as investors digest consumer confidence figures

London stocks were little changed in early trade as investors sifted through some mixed corporate earnings and a survey showing a rebound in UK consumer confidence.
At 0830 BST, the FTSE 100 was flat at 6,818.64.

Rebecca O'Keeffe, head of investment at Interactive Investor, said: "Traditional August volatility has been missing this year as muted volumes and the continuing yield hunt has seen equity markets continue to benefit as investors struggle to find alternative investment opportunities.

"However, September could see a return to more interesting and volatile market conditions as central banks yet again become the primary focus of attention. Friday's US employment report could be the final piece of the jigsaw puzzle that might set the tone for a more hawkish Federal Reserve. Against a backdrop where economic pressure in Europe and the UK is more likely to see rates cut further, this decoupling could see market volatility spike sharply."

On the data front, GfK's headline consumer confidence index rose five points to -7 in August, which was slightly above consensus expectations of -8 but still well below the 12-month average of -1.

All five measures used to calculate the index increased in August, with the index of major purchases up nine points at +7 and the personal financial situation index up one point to 0.

Meanwhile, the survey found expectations for the general economic situation over the next 12 months have increased 11 points to -22.

Joe Staton, head of Market Dynamics at GfK, said: "We're reporting some recovery in the Index this month as consumers settle into the new wait-and-see reality of a post-Brexit, pre-exit UK. The uptick in confidence is driven by good news from hard data, the combination of historic low interest rates matched with falling prices and high levels of employment.

"This can be seen in positive growth across all major measures including both our Personal and General Economic situation for the next 12-months."

There are no further UK data releases of note due, but eurozone inflation and unemployment rate are at 1000 BST.

In corporate news, 888 Holdings rallied as favourable sports results and strong casino winnings lifted its first-half numbers, helping to make up for its failed plot to buy William Hill.

Diploma edged higher as it said underlying sales grew 2% in the year to September, with acquisitions and the weak pound helping to lift statutory revenues 14%.

James Fisher was under the cosh after it said it expected to return to growth in the second half and produce "a good improvement" in the full year after another fall in revenue and profits in the first half.

FTSE 250 builders merchant Grafton Group tumbled as it reported a rise in first-half pre-tax profit as revenue grew thanks in part to strong performances in the Netherlands and Ireland, but warned of a challenging backdrop in UK merchanting.

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Market Movers

FTSE 100 (UKX) 6,818.82 -0.03%
FTSE 250 (MCX) 17,803.78 -0.24%
techMARK (TASX) 3,459.19 -0.15%

FTSE 100 - Risers

HSBC Holdings (HSBA) 565.20p 1.38%
Sky (SKY) 856.50p 0.65%
Relx plc (REL) 1,456.00p 0.62%
Standard Chartered (STAN) 636.40p 0.58%
Prudential (PRU) 1,365.50p 0.55%
Barclays (BARC) 170.05p 0.53%
Lloyds Banking Group (LLOY) 59.05p 0.32%
Berkeley Group Holdings (The) (BKG) 2,603.00p 0.31%
Merlin Entertainments (MERL) 481.60p 0.29%
Mediclinic International (MDC) 1,035.00p 0.29%

FTSE 100 - Fallers

Morrison (Wm) Supermarkets (MRW) 192.50p -2.43%
Travis Perkins (TPK) 1,665.00p -2.17%
Anglo American (AAL) 801.00p -2.02%
BHP Billiton (BLT) 1,019.50p -2.02%
Randgold Resources Ltd. (RRS) 7,250.00p -1.49%
Rio Tinto (RIO) 2,316.50p -1.45%
Persimmon (PSN) 1,807.00p -1.42%
London Stock Exchange Group (LSE) 2,763.00p -1.29%
Fresnillo (FRES) 1,670.00p -1.18%
Tesco (TSCO) 161.85p -0.89%

FTSE 250 - Risers

DFS Furniture (DFS) 271.90p 2.10%
SEGRO (SGRO) 454.60p 1.79%
Kennedy Wilson Europe Real Estate (KWE) 972.50p 1.41%
UK Commercial Property Trust (UKCM) 79.80p 1.27%
Marshalls (MSLH) 315.20p 1.16%
The Renewables Infrastructure Group Limited (TRIG) 104.90p 1.06%
NCC Group (NCC) 333.30p 0.91%
Mitchells & Butlers (MAB) 260.50p 0.89%
IMI (IMI) 1,069.00p 0.85%
Electrocomponents (ECM) 308.20p 0.82%

FTSE 250 - Fallers

Grafton Group Units (GFTU) 563.00p -7.40%
Restaurant Group (RTN) 379.80p -4.09%
Ocado Group (OCDO) 296.30p -3.49%
IP Group (IPO) 188.10p -3.04%
Safestore Holdings (SAFE) 356.00p -1.87%
Polypipe Group (PLP) 283.50p -1.84%
Petrofac Ltd. (PFC) 843.00p -1.81%
Halfords Group (HFD) 353.90p -1.59%
Hochschild Mining (HOC) 250.80p -1.53%

UK Event Calendar

Wednesday August 31

INTERIMS
Arrow Global Group, Avengardco Investments Public Ltd GDR, BBGI SICAV S.A. (DI), Biome Technologies, Brave Bison Group, Cathay International Holdings Ltd., Churchill China, Exova Group , Grafton Group Units, Gulf Marine Services, HSS Hire Group , Irish Continental Group Units, PJSC Centre For Cargo Container Traffic Transcontainer GDR (Reg S), PJSC Centre For Cargo Container Traffic Transcontainer GDR (Reg S), PPHE Hotel Group Ltd, Surgical Innovations Group, The Gym Group

INTERIM DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATE
Lancashire Holdings Limited, Man Group

QUARTERLY PAYMENT DATE
City of London Inv Trust, Picton Property Income Ltd

INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTS
Crude Oil Inventories (US) (15:30)
MBA Mortgage Applications (US) (12:00)
Pending Homes Sales (US) (15:00)
Retail Sales (GER) (07:00)
Unemployment Rate (EU) (10:00)
Unemployment Rate (GER) (08:55)

Q2
Avengardco Investments Public Ltd GDR, HSS Hire Group , PJSC Centre For Cargo Container Traffic Transcontainer GDR (Reg S), PJSC Centre For Cargo Container Traffic Transcontainer GDR (Reg S), The Gym Group

AGMS
Aberdeen New Dawn Investment Trust, Bahamas Petroleum Co, Iona Environmental VCT, Jupiter Green Inv Trust, Maven Income And Growth VCT 6 , Puma Vct 8

TRADING ANNOUNCEMENTS
Punch Taverns

UK ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTS
Auto Sales (US) (00:00)
GFK Consumer Confidence (00:05)
Nationwide House Price Index (07:00)

FINAL DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATE
City of London Investment Trust 4.2% Non-Cum 2nd Prf Stk, Datang International Power Generation Co Ltd.


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Europe open: Stocks waver as investors await inflation figures; Commerzbank rallies

European stocks wavered in early trade as investors digested better-than-expected German data ahead of key eurozone inflation figures.
At 0900 BST, the benchmark Stoxx Europe 600 index was up 0.2%, Germany's DAX was 0.1% weaker and France's CAC 40 was 0.3% firmer.

At the same time, oil prices were in the red. West Texas Intermediate was down 0.4% to $46.17 a barrel while Brent crude was 0.5% lower at $48/14.

Ana Thaker, market economist at PhillipCapital UK, said: "Today's eurozone CPI figures will be crucial in determining ECB policy in their September meeting. If CPI looks weak, we could see Draghi act swiftly to inject more stimulus into the markets in a bid to increase price levels and spur on growth. The eurozone has faced a spate of poor data recently and there will be pressure on the ECB to take measures to support the economy."

The flash eurozone inflation data is due at 1000 BST, along with the unemployment rate for the bloc.

In terms of sectors, miners were under pressure after analysts at Clarksons Platou Securities said iron ore prices could drop below $50 a metric ton before the year-end. The Stoxx 600 basic resources index fell 1.5%.

In corporate news, Commerzbank racked up healthy gains after Germany's Manager Magazin reported that Deutsche Bank had in the past looked at the possibility of a merger with the company.

Iliad was on the front foot as the French phone carrier posted a rise in first-half sales and earnings.

French telecommunications company Bouygues was also in the black as it said net profit in the second quarter increased and stuck to its full-year revenue and earnings targets.

888 Holdings rallied as favourable sports results and strong casino winnings lifted its first-half numbers, helping to make up for its failed plot to buy William Hill.

Diploma edged higher as it said underlying sales grew 2% in the year to September, with acquisitions and the weak pound helping to lift statutory revenues 14%.

FTSE 250 builders merchant Grafton Group tumbled as it reported a rise in first-half pre-tax profit as revenue grew thanks in part to strong performances in the Netherlands and Ireland, but warned of a challenging backdrop in UK merchanting.

On the macroeconomic calendar, figures from Destatis showed German retail sales rose 1.7% in July from June, beating expectations of a 0.5% increase.


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US Market Report

US close: Stocks fall as traders look ahead to non-farm payrolls report

US stocks declined at the close on Tuesday as oil prices dropped and as traders awaited the all-important non-farm payrolls report.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.26% to 18,454.30 points, the S&P 500 edged down 0.20% to 2,176.12 points and the Nasdaq shed 0.18% to 5,222.99 points.

At the same time oil prices fell as the dollar strengthened, making crude imports more expensive for holders of other currencies. West Texas Intermediate crude dropped 1.7% to $48.43 per barrel and Brent fell 1.14% to $46.45 per barrel at 2052 BST.

The dollar rose 0.21% against the pound, increased 0.40% against the euro and jumped 1.07% versus the yen.

Investors are holding out for the monthly official jobs report on Friday after Fed Chair Janet Yellen said the next interest rate hike depends on the strength of incoming economic data. In her speech at the Jackson Hole symposium last Friday, Yellen noted that the economy is improving and suggested the case for a move on rates had strengthened in recent months.

Joshua Mahony, market analyst at IG, said: "Much like last week, which saw traders spend their time anticipating Friday's speech from Yellen, this week will also see a crescendo of anticipation into the August payrolls figure, which according to Stanley Fischer represents a deal breaker regarding whether the Fed will indeed raise rates in 2016.

"Following relatively robust numbers in the past two months, another 200K-plus figure could provide the spark needed for the committee to act this year, with markets currently pricing in a 61.4% chance. Given the threat associated with the US election in November, the likelihood is that December provides the best chance for action from the Fed."

Fed Reserve vice chair Stanley Fischer told Bloomberg on Tuesday that while negative interest rates seem to be working in other countries, the US central bank is not "planning to do anything in that direction".

In economic data, US house price growth slowed in June. The S&P Core Logic Case-Shiller 20-City Composite index rose 5.1% year-on-year, compared to expectations for an increase of 5.2% and May's revised 5.3% increase.

A gauge of US consumer confidence rose to the highest level in nearly a year in August. The Conference Board's consumer confidence index edged up to 101.1 in August from 96.7 in July, beating estimates of 97.0.

"On the whole, the US consumer has remained a robust proposition within an international context of weakening demand, and the positive data may put the long-speculated interest rate hike further up Yellen's agenda," said Dennis de Jong, managing director of UFX.com.

"The real test, however, is whether this confidence begins to waver as we enter what will surely be the most contentious US presidential race in living memory."

On the corporate front, Abercrombie & Fitch shares plunged after it reported a second quarter loss that was worse than expected as sales fell for a 14th straight quarter.

Apple was under the cosh after the European Commission ruled that Ireland should recover up to €13bn from the technology giant in back taxes.

Hershey shares tumbled after Mondelez International said late on Monday it has ended its bid to buy the chocolate maker.

United Continental Holdings was in the black after it said late on Monday that it has named Scott Kirby as president.



Dow Jones - Risers

Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (GS) $169.46 1.55%
JP Morgan Chase & Co. (JPM) $67.50 0.82%
Intel Corp. (INTC) $35.70 0.42%
Visa Inc. (V) $81.17 0.37%
General Electric Co. (GE) $31.36 -0.00%
Walt Disney Co. (DIS) $94.87 -0.00%
Travelers Company Inc. (TRV) $118.46 -0.02%
McDonald's Corp. (MCD) $115.37 -0.03%
American Express Co. (AXP) $65.45 -0.11%
Wal-Mart Stores Inc. (WMT) $71.32 -0.11%

Dow Jones - Fallers

Boeing Co. (BA) $130.82 -1.57%
Nike Inc. (NKE) $58.01 -1.06%
Home Depot Inc. (HD) $134.10 -0.84%
Procter & Gamble Co. (PG) $87.56 -0.84%
Apple Inc. (AAPL) $106.00 -0.77%
Caterpillar Inc. (CAT) $82.48 -0.75%
Coca-Cola Co. (KO) $43.23 -0.71%
Pfizer Inc. (PFE) $34.88 -0.66%
United Technologies Corp. (UTX) $107.35 -0.57%
Merck & Co. Inc. (MRK) $62.71 -0.48%

S&P 500 - Risers

Mosaic Company (MOS) $30.45 8.94%
United Continental Holdings Inc. (UAL) $50.99 8.60%
CF Industries Holdings Inc. (CF) $26.20 4.88%
Mondelez International Inc. (MDLZ) $44.74 3.95%
Tesoro Corp. (TSO) $75.83 2.82%
Morgan Stanley (MS) $32.19 2.47%
American Airlines Group (AAL) $37.05 2.43%
Bank of America Corp. (BAC) $16.19 2.21%
Perrigo Company plc (PRGO) $90.99 2.19%
Wells Fargo & Co. (WFC) $50.63 2.16%

S&P 500 - Fallers

Hershey Foods Corp. (HSY) $99.66 -10.75%
Newmont Mining Corp. (NEM) $38.60 -5.65%
Gap Inc. (GPS) $25.34 -4.31%
Freeport-McMoRan Inc (FCX) $10.56 -3.83%
United States Steel Corp. (X) $19.51 -3.58%
Marathon Oil Corp. (MRO) $15.55 -2.75%
NRG Energy Inc. (NRG) $12.19 -2.64%
Bristol-Myers Squibb (BMY) $57.24 -2.60%
Urban Outfitters Inc. (URBN) $36.23 -2.53%
Dollar General Corp (DG) $75.65 -2.37%

Nasdaq 100 - Risers

Mondelez International Inc. (MDLZ) $44.74 3.95%
American Airlines Group (AAL) $37.05 2.43%
Charter Communications Inc. (CHTR) $256.03 1.47%
eBay Inc. (EBAY) $31.77 1.18%
Liberty Media Corporation - Series C (LMCK) $21.38 1.09%
Baidu Inc. (BIDU) $175.45 1.04%
Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd. - Ordinary Shares (NCLH) $35.85 0.93%
Yahoo! Inc. (YHOO) $42.58 0.76%
Liberty Media Corporation - Class A (LMCA) $21.51 0.75%
Activision Blizzard Inc. (ATVI) $41.58 0.70%

Nasdaq 100 - Fallers

Ulta Salon, Cosmetics & Fragrance Inc. (ULTA) $244.97 -3.59%
Tesla Motors Inc (TSLA) $211.34 -1.79%
Dollar Tree Inc (DLTR) $84.11 -1.66%
Viacom Inc. Class B (VIAB) $40.85 -1.47%
Lam Research Corp. (LRCX) $92.98 -1.44%
Monster Beverage Corp (MNST) $153.81 -1.37%
Skyworks Solutions Inc. (SWKS) $74.20 -1.36%
T-Mobile Us, Inc. (TMUS) $46.10 -1.35%
Vodafone Group Plc ADS (VOD) $30.63 -1.32%


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Newspaper Round Up

Wednesday newspaper round-up: BHP boss, ARM Holdings, ITC Travel

The construction of what would be the tallest building in the City of London may be delayed as commercial property investors across the capital become nervous after the Brexit vote about a slowdown in demand for office space. The property division of the French-owned Axa is set to ask investors whether they want to proceed with building 22 Bishopsgate, a 62-storey 278m-high building in the heart of London's financial district costing an estimated £1.5 billion. - The Times
BHP Billiton is set to strip its chief executive of his annual bonus after the publication of a hard-hitting report into failures at the mining group's Brazilian joint venture that led to the fatal collapse of a dam. Andrew Mackenzie, the boss of the London-listed miner, will receive no bonus after a review by BHP's board of the Samarco dam failure led its remuneration committee to conclude that he would not be eligible for pay above his $1.7 million salary. - The Times

Shareholders in ARM Holdings have overwhelmingly backed a £24bn takeover by Japan's SoftBank, despite lingering concerns over the sale of Britain's biggest technology company. More than 95% of the microchip designer's investors voted in favour of the deal at a meeting in London. The company's board accepted SoftBank's cash offer on 18 July. The £17 a share offer represents a premium of more than 40% on ARM's record closing price. The deal is expected to be completed next Monday. - Guardian

The co-founder of a classic car restoration company in Shropshire has given the business to its 60 staff. Peter Neumark, who has owned and chaired Classic Motor Cars since it started in 1993, has turned it into an employee ownership trust, which means the staff own and run the business themselves. They will share profits, in a similar way to the John Lewis Partnership, which pays out annual bonuses as a percentage of salary to staff. Part of the bonus (the first £3,600) will be tax-free. - Guardian

ITC Travel, a maker of made-to-measure holidays for the rich, has been sold to private equity firm NorthEdge in a deal thought to value the luxury operator at £30m. The Cheshire-based travel group was recently featured in the BBC documentary The Millionaires' Holiday Club, which gave a glimpse of its sumptuous holidays, from champagne-fuelled yacht parties in the Caribbean to haute couture dress shopping. - Telegraph

Theresa May has quashed the idea of an early UK general election to capitalise on her party's huge poll lead over the warring Labour opposition. The prime minister's spokesman said on Tuesday there was "no need" for another election after the Conservative victory in May 2015, despite the recent EU referendum vote and resignation of David Cameron as prime minister. - Financial Times

 

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Aug 30, 2016

Evening Euro Markets Bulletin

 
ADVFN III Evening Euro Markets Bulletin
Daily world financial news Tuesday, 30 August 2016 17:39:04
Monitor Quote Charts News CFD's Compare Brokers Free BB
 

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London Market Report
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London close: Stocks fall as traders return from bank holiday

London stocks finished lower on Tuesday as investors resumed trading after the bank holiday and looked ahead to the US non-farm payrolls report due at the end of the week.
Joshua Mahony, market analyst at IG, said: "Much like last week, which saw traders spend their time anticipating Friday's speech from Yellen, this week will also see a crescendo of anticipation into the August payrolls figure, which according to Stanley Fischer represents a deal breaker regarding whether the Fed will indeed raise rates in 2016.

"Following relatively robust numbers in the past two months, another 200K-plus figure could provide the spark needed for the committee to act this year, with markets currently pricing in a 61.4% chance. Given the threat associated with the US election in November, the likelihood is that December provides the best chance for action from the Fed."

In her speech at the Jackson Hole symposium last Friday, Fed Chair Janet Yellen noted that the US economy is improving and suggested the case for a move on rates had strengthened in recent months.

On Tuesday's agenda, data from the Bank of England revealed mortgage approvals in July fell to the lowest level since January 2015. Mortgage approvals dropped to 60,912 last month from 64,152 in June, missing analysts' expectations of 62,000.

Net consumer credit rose £1.18bn in July, compared to £1.85bn growth in June and forecasts for a £1.7bn increase.

"Looking ahead, the MPC's easing measures in August have it cheaper for firms to raise funds from bond markets and will help to prevent interest rates on new bank loans from rising," said Samuel Tombs, chief UK economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics.

"But with huge uncertainty regarding the trade and regulatory environment for businesses post-Brexit unlikely to disappear soon, slightly cheaper borrowing costs will do little to prop up business investment over the coming quarters."

Meanwhile, the European Commission said its economic sentiment indicator for the eurozone fell to 103.5 in August from 104.5 in July, worse than estimates of 104.1.

The UK's economic confidence index rose to 104.0 in August from 102.6 in July, but remained well below the levels seen in the months leading up to the June 23 EU referendum.

Elsewhere, a report showed US house price growth slowed in June. The S&P Core Logic Case-Shiller 20-City Composite index rose 5.1% year-on-year, compared to expectations for an increase of 5.2% and May's revised 5.3% increase.

Separately, a gauge of US consumer confidence rose to the highest level in nearly a year in August. The Conference Board's consumer confidence index edged up to 101.1 in August from 96.7 in July, beating estimates of 97.0.

"On the whole, the US consumer has remained a robust proposition within an international context of weakening demand, and the positive data may put the long-speculated interest rate hike further up Yellen's agenda," said Dennis de Jong, managing director of UFX.com.

"The real test, however, is whether this confidence begins to waver as we enter what will surely be the most contentious US presidential race in living memory."

On the company front, Associated British Foods rallied after RBC Capital Markets upgraded the stock to 'outperform' from 'sector perform' and lifted the price target to 3,400p from 2,800p.

On the downside, Debenhams shares fell after RBC downgraded the retailer to 'sector perform' from 'outperform' with an unchanged target of 65p.

Mining stocks were under the cosh as metal prices dropped with Antofagasta, Rio Tinto and Fresnillo among the biggest fallers.

Oil prices also fell as the dollar strengthened and as hopes faded on a deal at next month's unofficial OPEC meeting. Brent crude dropped 1.5% to $48.50 per barrel and West Texas Intermediate declined 1.2% to $46.41 per barrel at 1550 BST.

BHP Billiton suffered a double blow as it reported that a report it commissioned into the dam disaster at its Samarco joint venture in Brazil last year was due to a poorly designed structure that had allowed water to seep into its infrastructure and left sand inside the dam "loose, uncompacted and saturated".

Shares in Emirates-based NMC Health jumped as the company said it was expanding into Saudi Arabia with the purchase of a 70% stake in a hospital for $45m and and investment in a long-term care facility.


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Market Movers

FTSE 100 (UKX) 6,825.49 -0.18%
FTSE 250 (MCX) 17,830.50 -0.56%
techMARK (TASX) 3,467.50 -0.12%

FTSE 100 - Risers

Associated British Foods (ABF) 3,051.00p 3.42%
HSBC Holdings (HSBA) 557.50p 1.94%
Barclays (BARC) 169.15p 1.90%
Ashtead Group (AHT) 1,277.00p 1.75%
Royal Bank of Scotland Group (RBS) 200.10p 1.73%
Standard Chartered (STAN) 633.20p 1.65%
CRH (CRH) 2,582.00p 1.65%
Lloyds Banking Group (LLOY) 58.86p 1.47%
St James's Place (STJ) 975.00p 1.46%
Aviva (AV.) 424.50p 1.39%

FTSE 100 - Fallers

Fresnillo (FRES) 1,690.00p -5.59%
Antofagasta (ANTO) 511.50p -5.54%
Anglo American (AAL) 817.50p -4.78%
Rio Tinto (RIO) 2,350.50p -4.74%
Paddy Power Betfair (PPB) 9,200.00p -4.51%
Glencore (GLEN) 177.05p -4.30%
Randgold Resources Ltd. (RRS) 7,355.00p -4.17%
BHP Billiton (BLT) 1,040.50p -3.66%
Persimmon (PSN) 1,836.00p -2.50%
Berkeley Group Holdings (The) (BKG) 2,597.00p -2.37%

FTSE 250 - Risers

Circassia Pharmaceuticals (CIR) 96.20p 4.57%
Riverstone Energy Limited (RSE) 1,102.00p 2.89%
Wizz Air Holdings (WIZZ) 1,576.00p 2.67%
Big Yellow Group (BYG) 743.50p 2.48%
Ocado Group (OCDO) 306.00p 2.03%
IP Group (IPO) 193.60p 2.00%
Phoenix Group Holdings (DI) (PHNX) 859.00p 1.96%
Micro Focus International (MCRO) 2,033.00p 1.90%
Electra Private Equity (ELTA) 3,855.00p 1.69%
Dairy Crest Group (DCG) 668.00p 1.67%

FTSE 250 - Fallers

Acacia Mining (ACA) 476.00p -10.94%
Centamin (DI) (CEY) 154.40p -8.37%
Hochschild Mining (HOC) 254.80p -8.21%
Allied Minds (ALM) 348.30p -6.57%
Restaurant Group (RTN) 395.80p -6.21%
Kaz Minerals (KAZ) 174.20p -4.81%
Evraz (EVR) 131.90p -4.49%
Debenhams (DEB) 60.05p -4.38%
Vectura Group (VEC) 131.90p -4.07%

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Europe close: Weaker euro proves boon for region´s stocks

European stocks pushed higher on Tuesday, with a weaker euro lending a helping hand to exporters as investors continued to mull over Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen's speech at Jackson Hole at the end of last week.
The benchmark Stoxx Europe 600 index finished 0.45% higher, Germany's DAX gained 1.07% higher and France's CAC 40 was up 0.75%.

West Texas Intermediate closed with losses of 1.03% at $46.49 and Brent crude down 1.7% to $48.43.

Meanwhile, the euro slipped against the dollar, which gained ground amid rising expectations that the Federal Reserve might hike interest rates as early as September following Chair Janet Yellen's speech at Jackson Hole last Friday. Yellen noted that the US economy is improving and suggested the case for a move on rates had strengthened in recent months.

A weaker euro benefits European exporters, as it makes their goods cheaper for holders of other currencies.

IG's Joshua Mahony said: "Dollar strength has been a common theme since Friday, with the dollar index rising over 1.6% since Friday's low of 94.17."

Markus Huber, a trader at City of London Markets, said "Fed chief Yellen made it very clear during her speech in Jackson Hole last week that the timing of the next rate hike will very much depend on the strength of the economic data in the coming weeks. Consequently should employment figures turn out very strong again this Friday the likelihood of an interest rate increase as early as September will go up markedly."

In corporate news, BHP Billiton dropped after a review conducted by a panel of experts concluded that the Samarco dam disaster at a mine part-owned by the company in Brazil last year was caused by construction and design flaws. The, report commissioned by BHP, said problems at the dam made it more unstable, causing "liquefaction" in the dam wall.

Distribution and outsourcing group Bunzl rallied after it reported a rise in first-half profit as revenue grew and the company lifted its interim dividend. Also on Tuesday, Bunzl announced that it has completed two further acquisitions in Canada and has entered into an agreement to acquire a business in Hungary.


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This class will cover the basics of investing by highlighting what to look for in businesses and identifying the best practices for making investments.

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US Market Report

US open: Stocks mixed as traders await non-farm payrolls

US stocks were mixed on Tuesday as traders looked ahead to the non-farm payrolls report at the end of the week.
At 1503 BST the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.06% to 18,490.56 points, the S&P 500 dipped 0.01% to 2,180.35 points and the Nasdaq rose 0.14% to 5,239.91 points.

Oil prices rose as operators in the US Gulf of Mexico shut production due to a tropical storm, easing worries about global supply glut. West Texas Intermediate crude grew 0.69% to $47.31 per barrel and Brent climbed 0.60% to $49.56 per barrel at 1507 BST.

Joshua Mahony, market analyst at IG, said: "Much like last week, which saw traders spend their time anticipating Friday's speech from Yellen, this week will also see a crescendo of anticipation into the August payrolls figure, which according to Stanley Fischer represents a deal breaker regarding whether the Fed will indeed raise rates in 2016.

"Following relatively robust numbers in the past two months, another 200K-plus figure could provide the spark needed for the committee to act this year, with markets currently pricing in a 61.4% chance. Given the threat associated with the US election in November, the likelihood is that December provides the best chance for action from the Fed."

In her speech at the Jackson Hole symposium last week, Fed Chair Janet Yellen noted that the US economy is improving and suggested the case for a move on rates had strengthened in recent months.

Meanwhile Fed Reserve vice chair Stanley Fischer told Bloomberg that while negative interest rates seem to be working in other countries, the US central bank is not "planning to do anything in that direction".

In economic data, US house price growth slowed in June. The S&P Core Logic Case-Shiller 20-City Composite index rose 5.1% year-on-year, compared to expectations for an increase of 5.2% and May's revised 5.3% increase.

A gauge of US consumer confidence rose to the highest level in nearly a year in August. The Conference Board's consumer confidence index edged up to 101.1 in August from 96.7 in July, beating estimates of 97.0.

"On the whole, the US consumer has remained a robust proposition within an international context of weakening demand, and the positive data may put the long-speculated interest rate hike further up Yellen's agenda," said Dennis de Jong, managing director of UFX.com.

"The real test, however, is whether this confidence begins to waver as we enter what will surely be the most contentious US presidential race in living memory."

On the corporate front, Abercrombie & Fitch shares plunged as reported a second quarter loss that was worse than expected as sales fell for a 14th straight quarter.

Apple was under the cosh after the European Commission ruled that Ireland should recover up to €13bn from the technology giant in back taxes.

Hershey shares tumbled after Mondelez International said late on Monday it has ended its bid to buy the chocolate maker.


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Broker Tips

Broker tips: Smiths Group, AB Foods, Micro Focus

Smiths Group's shares gained on Tuesday as JP Morgan Cazenove reiterated an 'overweight' rating and lifted the price target to 1,585p from 1,300p.
JP Morgan said the technology company's 2016 financial year ended on a "very positive note", with the trading update on 9 August indicating that full year operating profit was well ahead of consensus expectations of £473m, although below the 2015 level of £511m.

"The full-year (July year-end) results on 28 September are to be accompanied by the presentation of the new management team's strategic vision for the group and we expect this, together with good results for 2016, to provide a further stimulus for the shares to continue to outperform the sector," JP Morgan said.

"With 18% upside to our price target and the prospect of the positive news flow continuing, we are reiterating our 'overweight' recommendation."

JP Morgan raised its 2016 revenue and earnings per share forecast by 2% to £2.93bn and 81.7p respectively, given the movement in exchange rates.

The broker said Smiths is trading at a "substantial discount" to the sector in terms of price-earnings ratio and enterprise value/ earnings before interest, tax and amortisation multiples "despite the prospect of delivering an operating profit margin more than 400bps above the average for our universe".



RBC Capital Markets upgraded Associated British Foods, but downgraded Debenhams and Sports Direct as it took a look at the European general retail sector.

"The general retail sector has bounced back from a post-Brexit selloff. However, we still see opportunities to buy stocks likely to see upwards earnings revisions.

"We favour higher quality merchants and online retailers and we are more cautious on companies likely to see like-for-like sales and margin pressure in H2 and 2017."

The bank upped AB Foods to 'outperform' from 'sector perform' and lifted the price target to 3,400p from 2,800p.

It noted the shares are down 12% year-to-date but said its full-year 2017/18 earnings per share forecasts are 6% higher than at the start of the year.

"We think ABF has a healthy double-digit EPS compound annual growth rate with EPS momentum owing to Primark share gains and recent strength in Sugar and euro prices. Our survey work favours Primark which still offers an attractive international rollout story."

On the downside, RBC cut Sports Direct to 'underperform' from 'sector perform' with an unchanged target of 280p.

It said Sports Direct shares have reacted well to the company's plans to buy back up to 5% of shares.

"However, our FY18 earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation forecast is still well below consensus (14%) given cost and currency pressures and as we think it will be challenging for SPD to raise prices when consumer disposable incomes are being squeezed."

The bank also downgraded Debenhams, to 'sector perform' from 'outperform' with an unchanged target of 65p.

It said Debenhams remains cash generative and according to its survey work, retains a range advantage over other retailers.

"However, it is relatively geared into a weaker outlook for consumer disposable incomes and also faces a more price competitive mid-market clothing sector."

RBC said that while the stock's valuation is undemanding, like-for-like and EPS growth will be challenging given consumer and dollar sourcing headwinds.





Canaccord Genuity has cut Micro Focus International's rating to 'hold' from 'buy' but lifted its target to 2,000p from 1,700p.

"We are updating our price target and forecasts to reflect the better-than-expected recent full year results and the impact of dollar strength," Canaccord said.

"We are also moving our recommendation from 'buy' to 'hold' as we expect the shares to pause for breath following a strong run. Our price target moves from 1700p to 2000p to reflect the beneficial impact of a stronger dollar and c10% upgrade to our earnings forecasts."

On 14 July the software product group reported a 59.1% increase in underlying adjusted earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) to $532.5m on a 54.9% jump in revenues to $1.24bn on a constant currency basis. Micro Focus said the results beat its expectations, driven by a strong performance of its product portfolio under its data and cloud storage business SUSE where revenues grew 18.2%.

Canaccord has raised its EBITDA estimate for fiscal year 2017 to $639m from an earlier forecast of $556.1m following the results. The broker's net debt estimate of $1.3bn represents just over two times this EBITDA forecast.

 

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