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May 16, 2016

Morning Euro Markets Bulletin

 
ADVFN  Morning Euro Markets Bulletin
Daily world financial news Monday, 16 May 2016 10:05:11
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London Market Report
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London open: Stocks fall on disappointing Chinese data

UK stocks declined on Monday after Chinese data released over the weekend missed expectations.
China's industrial output rose 6% year-on-year in April, compared with 6.8% growth a month earlier, the National Bureau of Statistics said on Saturday. Analysts had predicted a 6.6% increase.

Retails sales in China grew 10.1% in April compared to a year ago, following a 10.5% year-on-year rise in March, missing forecasts for a 10.6% gain.

Fixed-asset investment in urban areas climbed 10.5% year-over-year in the January-to-April period, compared with an annual increase of 10.7% for the first three months of 2016. It compared to estimates for a 11.0% rise.

"The drop in retail sales is particularly worrying given that they had been on an upward track since May last year and in the last couple of months the trend has reversed sharply from over 11% at the end of the last quarter of 2015," said Michael Hewson, senior market analyst at CMC Markets.

"While there was a bit of a pickup in March this now looks like it was simply a Chinese New Year inspired spike."

Turning to Monday's agenda there are no notable releases on the economic calendar and German markets are closed for trading due to a holiday.

Meanwhile, oil prices jumped after Goldman Sachs said the market had finished almost two years of oversupply and moved to a deficit following global production disruptions.

Brent crude rose 2.08% to $48.85 per barrel and West Texas Intermediate increased 1.8% to $47.10 per barrel at 0910 BST.

Oil producers BHP Billiton, Royal Dutch Shell and Tullow Oil rallied on the increase in crude prices.

Mining stocks were also sitting higher including Anglo American, Antofagasta, Fresnillo and Glencore as metal prices advanced.

Going the other way, British Land slumped despite saying its full year net asset value rose in the face of concerns of a jittery market.

Dealer broker ICAP declined after reporting a drop in revenue and profit in the year to 31 March, blaming challenging markets.

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Market Movers

FTSE 100 (UKX) 6,115.50 -0.37%
FTSE 250 (MCX) 16,637.22 -0.08%
techMARK (TASX) 3,037.01 -0.61%

FTSE 100 - Risers

Anglo American (AAL) 612.50p 5.93%
Antofagasta (ANTO) 426.10p 3.47%
Fresnillo (FRES) 1,142.00p 2.42%
Glencore (GLEN) 133.85p 2.06%
BHP Billiton (BLT) 838.30p 1.88%
Tesco (TSCO) 164.15p 1.55%
Randgold Resources Ltd. (RRS) 6,230.00p 1.05%
Rio Tinto (RIO) 2,009.00p 0.85%
Royal Dutch Shell 'B' (RDSB) 1,746.00p 0.81%
Royal Dutch Shell 'A' (RDSA) 1,739.50p 0.78%

FTSE 100 - Fallers

Old Mutual (OML) 166.40p -1.60%
Shire Plc (SHP) 4,070.00p -1.55%
Carnival (CCL) 3,576.00p -1.49%
Smith & Nephew (SN.) 1,148.00p -1.46%
BT Group (BT.A) 433.85p -1.43%
Relx plc (REL) 1,217.00p -1.38%
Provident Financial (PFG) 2,798.00p -1.37%
British Land Company (BLND) 710.50p -1.32%
Ashtead Group (AHT) 865.00p -1.31%
Prudential (PRU) 1,260.50p -1.29%

FTSE 250 - Risers

Victrex plc (VCT) 1,511.00p 5.66%
Kaz Minerals (KAZ) 156.40p 5.46%
Tullow Oil (TLW) 258.50p 4.02%
Crest Nicholson Holdings (CRST) 543.50p 3.52%
Evraz (EVR) 119.10p 3.39%
Aldermore Group (ALD) 192.60p 3.05%
Vedanta Resources (VED) 379.30p 2.93%
Ophir Energy (OPHR) 68.85p 2.76%
OneSavings Bank (OSB) 287.50p 2.31%
Rotork (ROR) 196.30p 2.29%

FTSE 250 - Fallers

TalkTalk Telecom Group (TALK) 251.80p -3.52%
Drax Group (DRX) 305.40p -2.68%
Hastings Group Holdings (HSTG) 182.00p -1.73%
Investec (INVP) 474.00p -1.62%
Aberdeen Asset Management (ADN) 261.50p -1.51%
Ladbrokes (LAD) 113.50p -1.39%
Britvic (BVIC) 715.00p -1.24%
John Laing Group (JLG) 212.10p -1.21%
Ibstock (IBST) 205.00p -1.20%

UK Event Calendar

Monday 16 May

INTERIM EX-DIVIDEND DATE
Inch Kenneth Kajang Rubber

QUARTERLY PAYMENT DATE
Abbott Laboratories

FINALS
Braemar Shipping Services, British Land Company, ICAP

ANNUAL REPORT
Immedia Group

SPECIAL DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATE
Savills

AGMS
Blue Capital Global Reinsurance Fund Ltd (DI), Challenger Acquisitions Limited , Chesnara, Falcon Acquisitions, John Laing Infrastructure Fund Ltd, MirLand Development Corporation, Satellite Solutions Worldwide Group, The Gym Group

TRADING ANNOUNCEMENTS
Crest Nicholson Holdings

FINAL DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATE
GKN, Gulf Marine Services, HGCapital Trust, Martinco , Melrose Industries, Rotork, Savills

Q1
Societatea Energetica Electrica SA GDR (Reg S)


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Europe Market Report
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Europe open: Weak Chinese data weigh on major benchmarks

European markets began the session moving lower following the release of a spate of weaker-than-expected economic data out of China over the weekend and amid light trading conditions as a result f public holidays in Germany and France.
As of 08:51 BST the benchmark DJ Stoxx 600 was lower by 0.53% to reach 332.91, while the Cac-40 was off by 0.95% or 40.96 points to 4,279.03 alongside a loss of 0.81% or 144.43 points to 17,585.02 for the FTSE Mibtel.

The Frankfurt Stock Exchange was closed for trading on Monday in observance of a bank holiday.

On the previous Friday European stocks finished higher despite the losses seen on Wall Street.

Figures published on 14 May revealed that Chinese industrial production, retail sales and fixed asset investment all slowed down in April from March.

Overnight, the Shanghai Stock Exchange's Composite Index finished the session higher by 0.84% to 2,850.862.

The rate of growth for industrial production slowed from 6.8% year-on-year clip in March to a 6% year-on-year pace in April, according to the National Bureau of Statistics.

That was less than the 6.5% rise which economists had forecast.

Chinese retail sales expanded by 10.1%, undershooting expectations for a gain of 10.5%, while fixed asset investment was up by 10.5% over the year to April, missing economists' projections for growth of 11%.

Following the data, and also weak headline number on Chinese lending the previous day, the Peoples Bank of China issued a statement explaining that said lending and credit figures had been distorted by a programme to allow local governments to swap more expensive debt for municipal bonds.

"Overall, although the data for April has been mixed, we think there are more positives than negatives. [...] But with the impact of earlier policy loosening yet to be fully felt, we think there is enough stimulus already in the pipeline to support a recovery until the end of the year," Capital Economics said in a research note sent to clients on Monday morning.

Shares in Telecom Italia were moving higher despite the telecommunications group having reported a 7.5% drop in group earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortisation to reach €1.79bn, after a 5.6% fall in sales to €4.18bn.

French pharma giant Sanofi was planning to move ahead with the replacement of US outfit Medivation's board of directors after the oncology treatment maker refused to engage in talks over a proposed $9.3bn buy-out, people familiar with the matter told Reuters.

Standard&Poor's downgraded the long-term credit ratings of EdF from A+ to A.

Euro/dollar was edging higher by 0.05% to 1.1314 and front month Brent crude futures were gaining 2.068% to reach $48.84 per barrel on the ICE.


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US Market Report

US close: S&P 500 down for third week amid investor pessimism and hawkish Fedspeak

Wall Street dropped at the end of the week despite the release of significantly better-than expected readings on retail sales and consumer confidence referencing the month of April.
The S&P 500 closed down by 0.5% for the week - for a third consecutive five-day stretch - at 2,046.61, leaving the benchmark gauge roughly at its 50-day moving average, an important level of so-called technical support, an important near-term reference for momentum traders.

In parallel, the Dow Jones Industrials Average slipping by 155.18 points of 1.05% to 17,535.32 while the Nasdaq Composite gave back another 19.66 points or 0.42% to 4,717.68.

To take note of, on the previous evening Boston Fed president Eric Rosengren, usually of a more dovish bent, surprised some market watchers by suggesting he might support a June Fed rate hike.

Friday's losses came about against a backdrop of weakness in shares of retailers, continuing large outflows from equity funds and 'market chatter' regarding the potential implications of the result of November's presidential elections for the economy and US/global financial markets.

According to Bank of America-Merrill Lynch, who cited EPFR data, global equity funds had seen $44bn in outflows over the previous five weeks, the largest exodus since August 2011.

"We stay cautious: Positioning = "grind higher"; Policy & Profits = "summer of shocks"," BofA's Michael Hartnett and Brian Leung said in a research report sent to clients.

Also worth noting perhaps, options pricing were possibly suggesting a move higher for stocks, in so far as they pointed to excess pessimism, according to work by oft-quoted options-writers Myron Scholes and Ashwin Alankar at Janus Capital, the Financial Times's Stephen Foley wrote on Friday.

For his part, well-regarded ex-Secretary State James Baker III poured cold water on suggestions on suggestions from some presidential candidates favouring a weaker NATO or that more countries be allowed to hold nuclear weapons.

"We've a got a lot of problems today, but we'd have a hell of a lot more if that were the case," Baker said.

Strong retail sales and consumer confidence

US retail sales jumped by 1.3% month-on-month in April, surpassing forecasts for a 0.8% gain by a wide margin. Excluding automobiles they also came in ahead of forecasts, rising by 0.8% (consensus: 0.6%).

A closely-tracked 'control group' of retail sales rose by 0.9%, more than doubling economists forecasts for a rise of 0.3%.

That suggested the rate of growth in real consumption Stateside would see again of about 2.9% over the second quarter of 2016, according to Michael Moran, at Daiwa Capital.

His opposite number at Barclays, Jesse Hurwitz, was in a similar frame of mind. "We remain optimistic on the US consumer and continue to expect that a rebound in consumption growth will boost overall activity in the second quarter," Hurwitz said in a research report sent to clients.

The University of Michigan's consumer confidence index improved from a reading of 89.0 in the month before to 95.8, according to the preliminary results of the survey which are released nearer to the beginning of each month. Nonetheless, Hurwitz was a tad suspicious about the magnitude of the gains.

Analysts had forecast a smaller improvement to 89.5.

Friday's better than expected economic data initially sent the yield on the policy sensitive two-year US Treasury note up by two basis points to 0.78%, but by the closing bell it was down by one basis point at 0.75%. The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield was retreating two basis points to 1.73% two hours after the retail sales numbers flashed across trader's screens but ended down by five basis points at 1.70%.

Oil prices dropped after Russian Energy Minister Alexander Novak said on Thursday that he didn't see the oil market balancing out until the first half of 2017.

West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures fell by 20 cents to $46.21 per barrel in NYMEX trading.

European stocks were mostly higher even after the International Monetary Fund warned a vote by the UK to leave the European Union would have a detrimental impact on the economy, with weakness in euro/dollar and upbeat data out of Germany giving equities a boost.

Commodity, retail stocks lead drop

Meanwhile, among US corporate stocks, Apple edged higher; the company announced it would invest $1bn in Didi Chuxing Technology, China's competitor to Uber Technologies.

J.C. Penney Co. Inc. retreated after the fashion retailer posted an unexpected 1.6% drop in first quarter sales to $2.81bn, versus the $2.92bn expected by markets.

By sectors, the largest losses were incurred by non-ferrous metals (-5.62%), aluminium (-2.54%), oil equipment&services (-2.32%), transport services (-2.28%) and retailers (-2.22%).

Bloomberg's spot US dollar index picked up 0.49% to trade at 94.61 by the close of trading in New York, weighing on the prices of most commodities.

S&P 500 - Risers
Nvidia Corp. (NVDA) $40.98 +15.21%
Endo International Plc (ENDP) $14.05 +4.46%
Allergan plc (AGN) $223.35 +3.39%
Newmont Mining Corp. (NEM) $34.07 +2.59%
Monsanto Co. (MON) $99.94 +2.06%
ONEOK Inc. (OKE) $41.04 +1.86%
Mallinckrodt Plc Ordinary Shares (MNK) $58.40 +1.71%
Kohls Corp. (KSS) $35.74 +1.68%
Seagate Technology Plc (STX) $19.09 +1.60%
Williams Companies Inc. (WMB) $19.35 +1.57%

S&P 500 - Fallers
Sandisk Corp. (SNDK) $0.00 -100.00%
Nordstrom Inc. (JWN) $39.16 -13.42%
Starwood Hotels & Resorts Worldwide Inc. (HOT) $74.12 -8.37%
Freeport-McMoRan Inc (FCX) $10.41 -5.62%
United States Steel Corp. (X) $13.98 -5.60%
Southwestern Energy Co. (SWN) $11.26 -5.06%
Transocean Ltd. (RIG) $9.25 -4.44%
Ryder System Inc. (R) $65.54 -4.24%
Murphy Oil Corp. (MUR) $29.14 -3.99%
Wynn Resorts Ltd. (WYNN) $89.95 -3.71%

Dow Jones I.A - Risers
Intel Corp. (INTC) $29.91 +0.50%
Apple Inc. (AAPL) $90.52 +0.20%
Travelers Company Inc. (TRV) $112.67 +0.03%
Pfizer Inc. (PFE) $33.19 +0.00%

Dow Jones I.A - Fallers
Wal-Mart Stores Inc. (WMT) $64.94 -2.86%
Caterpillar Inc. (CAT) $70.07 -2.27%
E.I. du Pont de Nemours and Co. (DD) $62.91 -2.13%
Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (GS) $155.34 -1.73%
Boeing Co. (BA) $132.12 -1.71%
General Electric Co. (GE) $29.64 -1.50%
Procter & Gamble Co. (PG) $81.23 -1.43%
Visa Inc. (V) $76.83 -1.36%
Chevron Corp. (CVX) $100.74 -1.35%
United Technologies Corp. (UTX) $100.27 -1.17%

Nasdaq 100 - Risers
Nvidia Corp. (NVDA) $40.98 +15.21%
Endo International Plc (ENDP) $14.05 +4.46%
Incyte Corp. (INCY) $73.21 +3.79%
Biomarin Pharmaceutical Inc. (BMRN) $82.71 +3.66%
JD.com, Inc. (JD) $22.64 +2.40%
Seagate Technology Plc (STX) $19.09 +1.60%
Mylan Inc. (MYL) $39.16 +1.40%
TripAdvisor Inc. (TRIP) $64.46 +1.07%
Regeneron Pharmaceuticals Inc. (REGN) $369.46 +1.04%
Activision Blizzard Inc. (ATVI) $38.29 +1.00%

Nasdaq 100 - Fallers
Dollar Tree Inc (DLTR) $77.63 -3.31%
O'Reilly Automotive Inc. (ORLY) $258.22 -2.61%
Western Digital Corp. (WDC) $35.44 -2.53%
Bed Bath & Beyond Inc. (BBBY) $42.29 -2.22%
Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd. - Ordinary Shares (NCLH) $46.38 -1.72%
Tractor Supply Company (TSCO) $92.00 -1.68%
Liberty Interactive Corporation QVC Group (QVCA) $25.75 -1.64%
PACCAR Inc. (PCAR) $56.02 -1.60%
Walgreens Boots Alliance, Inc. (WBA) $78.61 -1.58%


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Newspaper Round Up

Monday newspaper round-up: Ladbrokes-Coral, BHS, G4S, Sky

The merger between Ladbrokes and Coral could be blocked, analysts have suggested, citing the blocking last week of the proposed merger between O2 and Three by Europe's competition commission on the ground that it would have cut the number of big players from four to three, an argument supported by the UK's regulator. Industry experts suggest the merger could be undermined by data showing that about three quarters of retail punters place bets only in shops. - The Times
A number of bidders battling for BHS have been told to improve their offers by Tuesday to stand a chance of buying the collapsed high street chain. Administrators have spent the past week assessing several bids for the retailer and are expected to make a decision on a buyer within days. - Financial Times

O2 chief executive Ronan Dunne is exploring a debt-fuelled £8.5bn management buyout attempt following the collapse of CK Hutchison's takeover bid for the mobile operator. The Irishman, 52, has been approached in recent weeks by potential private equity sponsors aiming to carry out what would be the largest UK leveraged buyout since before the financial crisis. - Telegraph

The governor of the Bank of England was forced to defend his record yesterday as controversy raged over his interventions in the Brexit debate. Mark Carney, 51, said "we get the big calls right" in response to accusations that the Bank had produced inaccurate forecasts. - Times/Telegraph/Guardian

The CBI has cut its growth forecasts as uncertainty grows about the European Union referendum and as Commonwealth countries line up to advise against Brexit. After the Bank of England's downgrade last week, the employers' organisation is predicting GDP growth of 2 per cent in both 2016 and 2017, down from its forecasts of 2.3 per cent and 2.1 per cent, respectively, in February. - The Times

UK workers are being warned to expect meagre wage rises until at least 2020, as weak productivity and new costs such as the national living wage curb employers' readiness to raise salaries. Even though employment is expected to rise, pay growth is forecast to be just 1.7% over the next year, as an ample supply of labour helps employers hold back on wage rises in a "jobs-rich, pay-poor" economy, said the Chartered Institute for Personnel and Development (CIPD). - Guardian

The break-up of BAA is on course to create £870m of consumer benefits by 2020, the Competition and Markets Authority says in a new report to be published today. Forcing the airports operator to sell Gatwick, Stansted and Edinburgh produced legal challenges, but the resulting competition has led to more investment and faster passenger growth, the CMA says. - The Times

Sky faces a possible 70% rise in the bill for German football rights in an auction next month, analysts estimate. The broadcaster currently pays €645m (£508m) per season for exclusive rights to Bundesliga matches but amid stronger competition in the German pay-TV business, the annual bill could rise as high as €1.1bn, say specialists at Ampere Analysis. - Telegraph

G4S, the world's biggest security company, is planning to open mobile or high street banking units in the UK and five other European countries as it moves in on a space many lenders are vacating. G4S's armoured vehicles and secure locations already transport and store cash for central banks, high street lenders, retailers and public services. - Financial Times

The living wage will force a third of Britain's local shopkeepers to cut jobs or raise prices, new research into the impact of George Osborne's policy claims today. The darker outlook for convenience stores is a blow to retailers in general. - Telegraph

The average asking price of a typical first-time buyer home leapt by 6.2% in a month after buy-to-let investors rushed to buy properties before last month's stamp duty increase, according to figures on Monday. The average for properties coming on to the market in England and Wales with two bedrooms or fewer was £11,298 higher in May than in April, at £194,224, according to data from the property website Rightmove. - Guardian

Chinese nationals have become the largest foreign buyers of US property after pouring billions into the market in search of safe offshore assets, according to a study. A huge surge in Chinese buying of both residential and commercial real estate last year took their five-year investment total to more than $110bn, according to the study from the Asia Society and Rosen Consulting Group. - Guardian

The Church of England has said it fears a looming global economic slowdown with governments relatively powerless to shore up growth, as it revealed a decision to offload a portion of its substantial stock market holdings. The church commissioners, who manage the C of E's £7bn investment fund, said they enjoyed market-beating returns of 8.2% last year but warned they would struggle to keep up that pace in future. - Guardian


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