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May 25, 2016

Evening Euro Markets Bulletin

 
ADVFN III Evening Euro Markets Bulletin
Daily world financial news Wednesday, 25 May 2016 17:54:38
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London Market Report
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London close: Stocks gain on oil price rally, Greek bailout deal

UK stocks rallied on Wednesday as oil prices rose and Greece's creditors agreed to unlock further bailout funds.
Oil prices were nearing the $50 a barrel mark after government data showed US weekly crude inventories fell more than expected last week, helping to ease concerns about a global supply glut.

The Energy Information Administration said inventories fell 4.2 million barrels per day to 537.1 million barrels in the week to 20 May, compared to analysts' forecasts for a decline of 2 million barrels.

The report followed data from the American Petroleum Institute showing US crude stocks dropped by 5.1m barrels last week.

Brent crude rose 0.99% to $49.10 per barrel and West Texas Intermediate gained 0.51% to $48.87 per barrel at 1646 BST.

Meanwhile, Greece's creditors have agreed a deal to unlock a further €10.3bn in bailout funds to ease the country's debt burden. After an 11-hour meeting in Brussels, Eurozone ministers and the International Monetary Fund came to a deal to release the fresh loans to Greece after agreeing the nation had met its obligations through economic reforms.

The IMF also signalled that it could join the bailout by the end of 2016 following a debt-sustainability analysis.

In economic data, GfK's forward-looking consumer sentiment index for Germany unexpectedly rose to 9.8 in June from 9.7 the previous month.

The IFO's German business confidence index also rose to 107.7 in May from 106.6, beating estimates of 106.8.

Stateside, the Federal Housing Finance Agency revealed house prices rose more than expected in March. The home price index was 0.7%, compared to forecasts of 0.4% and the previous month's 0.5%.

The US trade deficit on goods increased from $57.1bn in March to $57.5bn in April, according to the Department of Commerce. However, it was less than the $60bn shortfall which markets had been expecting.

Markit's flash US services purchasing managers' index fell to 51.2 from 52.8 in April, missing expectations for a reading of 53.1. Although it remained above the 50.0 mark that separates contraction from expansion, it was well below the long-run survey average of 55.6.

Among corporate stocks, oil producers were sitting higher on the pick-up in crude prices with BP, BHP Billiton and Royal Dutch Shell in the black.

Marks & Spencer's shares plunged as the retailer posted an 18.5% drop in full year pre-tax profits and as chief executive Steve Rowe announced plans to lower clothing prices which may hit short-term profit.

Intertek was also in the red after saying its resource-related business continued to suffer from challenging markets in the first four months of the year.

Serco Group jumped after the outsourcing company said it expects underlying trading profit for 2016 to be ahead of current market forecasts following a stronger-than-anticipated start to the year.


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Market Movers

FTSE 100 (UKX) 6,262.85 0.70%
FTSE 250 (MCX) 17,239.30 0.60%
techMARK (TASX) 3,116.37 0.58%

FTSE 100 - Risers

Royal Bank of Scotland Group (RBS) 256.00p 4.36%
International Consolidated Airlines Group SA (CDI) (IAG) 551.00p 3.67%
Standard Chartered (STAN) 554.60p 3.47%
HSBC Holdings (HSBA) 446.40p 2.80%
Glencore (GLEN) 133.30p 2.78%
BHP Billiton (BLT) 837.20p 2.51%
easyJet (EZJ) 1,556.00p 2.50%
Barclays (BARC) 185.85p 2.45%
Paddy Power Betfair (PPB) 9,110.00p 2.42%
BP (BP.) 366.00p 2.29%

FTSE 100 - Fallers

Marks & Spencer Group (MKS) 399.40p -10.19%
Intertek Group (ITRK) 3,109.00p -5.70%
Carnival (CCL) 3,489.00p -2.65%
Taylor Wimpey (TW.) 204.90p -2.57%
Rolls-Royce Holdings (RR.) 622.50p -2.51%
DCC (DCC) 6,530.00p -2.46%
Tesco (TSCO) 167.00p -2.34%
Land Securities Group (LAND) 1,180.00p -1.83%
St James's Place (STJ) 928.00p -1.64%
WPP (WPP) 1,590.00p -1.49%

FTSE 250 - Risers

Serco Group (SRP) 102.90p 12.46%
Zoopla Property Group (WI) (ZPLA) 337.80p 10.00%
Restaurant Group (RTN) 370.50p 4.93%
Clarkson (CKN) 2,455.00p 4.82%
Paysafe Group (PAYS) 407.10p 4.44%
Regus (RGU) 315.90p 4.12%
Virgin Money Holdings (UK) (VM.) 370.80p 4.07%
Paragon Group Of Companies (PAG) 311.70p 3.90%
Interserve (IRV) 331.00p 3.73%
Euromoney Institutional Investor (ERM) 1,025.00p 3.69%

FTSE 250 - Fallers

DFS Furniture (DFS) 298.10p -5.24%
Centamin (DI) (CEY) 101.20p -4.53%
AO World (AO.) 170.10p -2.80%
Big Yellow Group (BYG) 863.00p -2.65%
Wizz Air Holdings (WIZZ) 1,940.00p -2.46%
OneSavings Bank (OSB) 309.00p -2.40%
Acacia Mining (ACA) 314.00p -2.33%
Lancashire Holdings Limited (LRE) 573.50p -2.05%
Sophos Group (SOPH) 226.00p -1.74%

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Europe Market Report
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Europe close: Stocks rise as risk-apettite picks up

European stocks racked up healthy gains on Wednesday, underpinned by rising oil prices, Greece’s deal with creditors and a better-than-expected reading on German business confidence.

The benchmark Stoxx Europe 600 index finished 1.29% or 4.44 points higher to 348.56, Germany’s DAX gained 1.47% or 147.90 points to close at 10,205.21 and France’s CAC 40 was 1.13% or 50.12 points stronger at 4,481.64.

Meanwhile, Greece’s ASE index was up 0.04% to 641.8 despite news that Athens had reached a deal to unlock €10.3bn in loans from its creditors in return for fiscal reforms.

"The agreement reached between Greece and its eurozone creditors reduces the risk of another Greek liquidity crisis this summer, and incentivises the country to complete its third bail-out programme. However, with little debt relief offered upfront, the Greek government may find it progressively more difficult to continue with politically controversial measures required to meet ambitious programme commitments. Implementation risk therefore remains high," analysts atFitch Ratings said.

Oil prices gained ground after data from the International Energy Agency, the Department of Energy´s statistical arm, said crude stockpiles in the States fell by 4.2m barrels last week.

West Texas Intermediate was up 0.59% to $48.91 a barrel and Brent crude was 0.998% firmer at $49.10.

“After three weeks of lacklustre market performance, investor sentiment has finally turned more positive, with markets up strongly, adding to the significant gains seen yesterday. The increased probability of a Remain vote alongside aid agreement on Greece (albeit somewhat diluted) and a more optimistic view of the US economy have all combined to encourage investors back to the table,” said Rebecca O’Keeffe, head of investment at stockbroker Interactive Investor.

In corporate news, Marks & Spencer was firmly under the cosh after reporting a drop in full-year profit and warning that short-term profit would take a hit from plans to turn around the clothing business.

German chemical and pharmaceutical company Bayer was in focus after US agriculture giant Monsanto rejected the company’s bid, saying it was “financially inadequate”.

Royal Mail was higher after the postal regulator decided not to impose any new price controls on the company’s wholesale or retail products but kept the cap on stamp prices and proposed tightening some rules in the 'access' market.

Pharmaceutical company Novo Nordisk rallied after the US Food & Drug Administration recommended the approval of its new diabetes drug.

There was some good news on the data front, as a widely-followed survey showed German business confidence improved more than expected in May.

The IFO Institute’s business climate index rose to 107.7 from 106.7 in April, beating economists’ expectations for a reading of 106.8.

Meanwhile, the expectations index increased to 101.6 from 100.5, surpassing expectations of 100.8, while the index of current conditions pushed up to 114.2 from 113.2.

Pantheon Macroeconomics noted the improvement in sentiment was seen across all industries with the rebound in retail sentiment, and further upturn in construction confidence the stand-out details.

“Overall, the IFO indicates that the cyclical recovery is resilient to increased volatility in financial markets and subdued global growth, but it also indicates that growth will slow in Q2, following a sizzling Q1.”


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US Market Report

US open: Stocks rise as oil prices rally

US stocks advanced on Wednesday as oil prices rose after data showed a drop in crude inventories to ease the global supply glut.
At 1553 BST the Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 0.87%, the S&P 500 increased 0.70% and the Nasdaq grew 0.62%.

Oil prices were nearing the $50 a barrel mark after government data showed US weekly crude inventories fell more than expected last week. The Energy Information Administration said inventories fell 4.2 million barrels per day to 537.1 million barrels in the week to 20 May, compared to analysts' forecasts for a decline of 2 million barrels.

The report followed data from the American Petroleum Institute showing US crude stocks dropped by 5.1m barrels last week.

West Texas Intermediate rose 0.28% to $48.76 per barrel and Brent edged up 0.75% to $48.98 per barrel at 1601 BST.

Meanwhile, the Federal Housing Finance Agency revealed US house prices rose more than expected in March. The home price index was 0.7%, compared to forecasts of 0.4% and the previous month's 0.5%.

The US trade deficit on goods increased from $57.1bn in March to $57.5bn in April, according to the Department of Commerce. However, it was less than the $60bn shortfall which markets had been expecting.

Activity in the US services sector unexpectedly deteriorated in May, according to data released on Wednesday.

Markit's flash US services purchasing managers' index fell to 51.2 from 52.8 in April, missing expectations for a reading of 53.1. Although it remained above the 50.0 mark that separates contraction from expansion, it was well below the long-run survey average of 55.6.

US mortgage applications rose 2.3% in the week to 20 May, compared to a 1% drop the previous week, according to the Mortgage Bankers' Association.

In company news, Hewlett Packard rose sharply after saying late on Tuesday that it will spin off its enterprise services business and merge it with Computer Sciences Corp.


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Broker Tips

Broker tips: Tesco, Mitchells & Butlers, CRH

Calculating that Tesco's sales performance at larger stores is likely to be worse than reported and that margins should be "permanently rebased lower", Credit Suisse has cut its earnings estimates and its target on the supermarket group.
Credit Suisse cut its TP to 115p from 135p but kept its 'underperform' rating.

Analysis by the Swiss bank has indicated that its Tesco's larger stores, which represent not far off half its UK grocery space, generated like-for-like sales 2.3% lower in the 2016 financial year, with the cumbersome 'big box' stores create a "structural EBIT headwind" of -1.7%.

Tesco's real estate burden "appears unique and intractable" as efforts to buy back leases and other property deals eases off after the £1.7bn made so far, while real estate flexibility is further limited by £3.6bn of structured debt transactions over 106 stores that average around 70,000 sq ft.

Further deep scrutiny of the supermarket group by analysts reveals "no obvious path back to historical margin levels - or what 'normal' margins should be".

As a result, the UK terminal margin is cut to 2.2% from 2.8%, which in itself assumes Tesco can mitigate 50% of the structural drag of its large stores.

After cutting UK and Ireland EBIT estimates by 14% and 29% for 2018 and 2019 respectively, group operating profit estimates respectively fall by 8% and 17.8%, which leads to the reduced target based on a discounted cashflow model.



Shares in Mitchells & Butlers gained on Wednesday after HSBC upgraded the stock to 'buy' from 'hold' and raised the target to 340p from 300p.

HSBC said while the company's first half results showed weak trading trends, the new chief executive Phil Urban has a "credible plan for improvement".

Mitchells & Butlers, which owns Harvester, All Bar One and Toby Carvery, reported a 1.5% fall in revenue to £1.1bn although pre-tax profits climbed to £83m from £75m.

CEO Urban announced plans to reduce stores at its Harvester chain to address fierce competition and real wage inflation following the introduction of the National Living Wage.

The group has also boosted investment in the refurbishment of sites to make them more attractive to customers. It follows a review which showed revamped outlets had done better than un-refurbished sites.

"We think that this is the right approach. As we show in this note, M&B has repeatedly underinvested in its sites, so it's hardly surprising that customers have gone elsewhere," HSBC analysts said in a note.

"We calculate the capital expenditure (capex) shortfall could be around £140m over the last five years. The new strategy addresses this; a £20m step up in capex per annum, along with a reduction in new site openings releases much more to be spent on refreshing the existing estate and converting underperforming sites into different brands."

HSBC said the shares have underperformed compared to its peers, trading on a fully adjusted enterprise value/earnings before interest and tax (EV/EBIT) discount of 12% to the wider sector.

The bank added that its sees value in the shares. "If sales begin to recover, as expected, and earnings forecasts stabilise, then the valuation should move back towards the wider sector."



CRH was well-placed to benefit from recently passed legislation Stateside to boost spending on infrastructure, analysts at JP Morgan said.

Based just on guidance from US aggregates companies there was 7% upside to then current estimates for the company's earning per share in 2016, Elodie Rall, Rajesh patki, Emily Biddulph and David Min said in a research note sent to clients.

The outlook for construction activity in the States was robust, the analysts said, underpinned as it was by structural undersupply in the housing market and the recent approval by the federal government of funding for highways, the so-called 'Fast Act'.

Fast was expected to result in higher federal spending in 2016-2020 and provide states with the confidence necessary to undertake the necessary planning for long-term infrastrucrture projects.

That would give the Dublin-based company´s America´s Materials´ Division - which generated about 55% of its earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortisation - a shot in the arm, the broker said.

Fatter margins wre also likely at its asphalt arm, given bitumen costs had dropped further.

The shares valuation was attractive, ther broker said, as they were changing hands at only 8.3 times their estimate for the firm´s 2017 EBITDA, versus the average 15% premium at which they had traded over the past three years.

Higher consensus earnings estimates and falling leverage should see that gap close, JP Morgan added.


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