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| London Market Report | | FTSE 100 | Euronext | Dax perf | CAC 40 | | | | | Please click on the images to view our interactive charts | | London close: Stocks up as US inflation exceeds forecasts The UK equity market was in positive territory on Thursday after US inflation data beat forecasts. The US consumer price index for September came in flat from a year ago, better than the 0.1% dip forecast by analysts and following a 0.2% increase in August. Compared to a month ago, CPI fell 0.2% in September, as expected, following a 0.1% drop in August. "Overall, there is nothing in this report that would persuade Fed officials to hike interest rates before the end of this year," said Steve Murphy, US economist at Capital Economics. "But it will be much harder to leave rates at near-zero next year when possibly both headline and core CPI inflation will be above 2%." Speaking in the afternoon, New York Fed president William Dudley said he would favour a rate increase this year if economic growth, employment and inflation perform in line with forecasts. Speaking at the Brookings Institution in Washington, he said the Fed must be clear about its plans for rates but should not be strict on using mathematical formulas. In other US news, the Philly Fed manufacturing index improved to -4.5 from -6 in September but this still fell short of analysts' expectations for the index to rise to -1. According to the Department of Labor, the number of first time unemployment benefits claimants in the US unexpectedly fell last week to match the lowest level in 42 years. New claims declined by 7,000 in the week ended 10 October to 255,000, compared with analysts' expectations for a modest increase to 270,000. Meanwhile, a higher than anticipated increase in Chinese lending figures gave the market a boost. China's banks issued 1.05trn yuan in new yuan loans in September, compared to 809.6bn yuan in August and analysts' expectations of 850bn yuan. "Although this will add to concerns about the trajectory of Chinese debt levels, in the short-run it will nonetheless be supportive of economic activity," according to Capital Economics. The report comes as a slight relief following Wednesday's disappointing Chinese inflation figures which showed a slowdown to 1.6% growth in September from a year earlier, down from a 2% increase in August. Among corporate stocks, Burberry plunged after reporting broadly flat sales in the six months to 30 September after a slowing in the second quarter due to its exposure to China. The luxury fashion retailer said it would cut costs to minimise the impact on full-year profits. Smiths Group also was knocked on the market after Exane BNP Paribas downgraded it to 'underperform' from 'neutral' and cut the price target to 830p from 1,000p. It highlighted that organic sales growth has lagged the sector for years, and that the situation regarding legacy liabilities has improved but isn't fully resolved. ARM Holdings jumped after the wider semi-conductor sector was lifted by market chatter regarding possible mergers. Closer to home, Numis Securities reiterated its buy rating with a price target of 1,350p. However, late on Thursday, Liberum slapped a 'sell' recommendation on the stock, saying it was "highly unlikely to be acquired". Unilever advanced after posting a jump in revenue in the third quarter and saying it expects underlying sales growth for the year to be towards the top end of its target range. Hargreaves Lansdown continued its rally as Baroness Altmann confirmed the government's priorities for pension policy including the continued roll-out of auto-enrolment and the continued implementation of pension freedom, both of which Hargreaves is benefiting from, as results earlier in the week had shown. Ashmore slid after reporting a 13% drop in assets under management in the first quarter, dented by net outflows and negative investment performance. WH Smith gained after the retailer posted a rise in pre-tax profit for the year on the back of a good performance across the group, with the travel business in particular providing a boost. Man Group rallied as it revealed a 2.5% increase in funds under management in the third quarter despite volatile markets. Serco slumped after it was downgraded to a 'reduce' rating by analysts at HSBC, who said the government's proposed 'living wage' adds another tier of unknowns to the Serco story, and considerable risks to the margin upside. |
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| Market Movers
FTSE 100 (UKX) 6,338.67 1.10% FTSE 250 (MCX) 16,949.50 0.82% techMARK (TASX) 3,019.32 1.04%
FTSE 100 - Risers
Hargreaves Lansdown (HL.) 1,400.00p 5.26% ARM Holdings (ARM) 979.50p 4.98% London Stock Exchange Group (LSE) 2,475.00p 4.21% Unilever (ULVR) 2,890.00p 3.58% St James's Place (STJ) 866.50p 3.28%
FTSE 100 - Fallers
Burberry Group (BRBY) 1,302.00p -8.25% Sports Direct International (SPD) 650.50p -3.63% Glencore (GLEN) 117.80p -1.88% Ashtead Group (AHT) 964.50p -1.48% GKN (GKN) 280.50p -0.99%
FTSE 250 - Risers
Renishaw (RSW) 2,036.00p 7.72% Man Group (EMG) 159.00p 5.16% Evraz (EVR) 94.15p 4.79% WH Smith (SMWH) 1,623.00p 4.74% Kaz Minerals (KAZ) 135.40p 4.39%
FTSE 250 - Fallers
Card Factory (CARD) 351.30p -5.39% Electrocomponents (ECM) 212.20p -3.81% Petra Diamonds Ltd.(DI) (PDL) 94.60p -3.52% Serco Group (SRP) 101.60p -3.15% Nostrum Oil & Gas (NOG) 511.00p -2.29% |
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| Europe Market Report | | FTSE 100 | Euronext | Dax perf | CAC 40 | | | | | | Europe close: Stocks rise amid mixed US data European stocks rose, bouncing back from three days of losses as expectations of a rate hike by the Federal Reserve were pushed back following disappointing US data out in the previous session. The benchmark Stoxx Europe 600 index ended the day 1.46% higher, Germany's DAX was up by 1.5% and France's CAC 40 advanced 1.44%. As of Thursday, Fed funds futures were pricing in approximately a 29% probability that the Fed would move on rates come December. "Overall sentiment is mixed, however with US rates not likely to go up any time soon, China stabilising and markets having come off substantially from their highs over the past few months some feel increasingly tempted to take advantage of generally lower valuations and are willing to pour money back into stocks," said Markus Huber, senior analyst at Peregrine & Black. Data released by the US Bureau of Labour Statistics showed US consumer prices were unchanged year-on-year in September (consensus: -0.2%), while at the core level they edged higher unexpectedly to 1.9%. However, two widely followed surveys of manufacturing activity in the Mid-Atlantic region of the US pointed to on-going weakness in the sector. A gauge of new manufacturing orders contained in the so-called Philly Fed survey declined to a reading of -10.6 in October after a print of 9.4 for the month before. On the corporate front, shares in household goods giant Unilever rallied after it posted a jump in revenue for the third quarter and said it now expects underlying sales growth for the year to be towards the top end of its target range. Stock in Casino surged after the French supermarket chain's third-quarter sales beat analysts' expectations. On the downside, luxury fashion retailer Burberry tumbled after saying sales in the second quarter slowed as the market, particularly for Chinese customers, became "increasingly challenging". Syngenta moved higher even after the Swiss agricultural chemicals company said sales in the third quarter fell 12% on the year to $2.6bn. In London, bank stocks were in focus after the Bank of England said it will require UK banks to hold up to £3.3bn of capital under new ring-fencing rules designed to make their retail operations more resilient to potential market crashes. |
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| US Market Report | US open: Stocks rise as investors digest deluge of data, earnings from banking giants US stocks rose in early trade as invested digested a raft of mostly disappointing data which reinforced the case for the Federal Reserve to stand pat on rates for longer, along with key earnings. At 1520 BST, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 0.4%, the S&P 500 was 0.5% higher and the Nasdaq was up 0.8%. CPI, jobless claims, Empire manufacturing and Philly Fed in focus The number of first time unemployment benefits claimants in the US unexpectedly fell last week to match the lowest level in 42 years. According to the Department of Labor, new claims declined by 7,000 in the week ended 10 October 255,000, compared with analysts' expectations for a modest increase to 270,000. Meanwhile, the four-week average, which is considered more reliable as it smooths out sharp fluctuations in the more volatile weekly figures, came in at 265,000, down 2,250 from the previous week's 267,250. Elsewhere, the US consumer price index fell for a second month in a row in September but was nevertheless stronger than expected when compared with year-ago levels. The US Bureau of Labor Statistics reported the CPI dropped 0.2% month-on-month in September, in line with analysts' predictions. The Empire State manufacturing index improved a tad in October but the results of the survey were still rather poor. The headline index for the regional survey of factory conditions improved to a reading of -11.36 in October from -14.67 in the month before. However, October marked the third consecutive reading below -10, the first such occurrence since 2009, the Federal Reserve bank of New York said in a statement. Economists had been expecting a reading of -7.5. The Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index remained in negative territory for the second month running in October, rising just a touch to -4.5 from -6 in September and falling short of economist's expectations for a reading of -1. A reading below zero indicates deteriorating conditions. Banking behemoths report earnings Shares in Goldman Sachs shook off opening losses to trade a touch higher despite its third-quarter results missing expectations. Net earnings for the quarter ended 30 September fell to $1.43bn or $290 a share, from $2.24bn or $4.57 a share a year earlier and against expectations of $3.00. Citigroup shares rallied as the bank's second-quarter profits beat expectations, jumping 54% to $4.3bn. Philip Morris International was also on the front foot after the tobacco company's third-quarter profit and sales came in better than expected. On the downside, shares in health insurer United Health fell sharply in early trade despite the company posting a 27% rise in revenue for the third quarter, while Netflix slumped after saying late on Wednesday that it is getting fewer US viewers than it had hoped. In commodities, oil prices were weaker, with West Texas Intermediate down 1.7% to $45.84 a barrel, and Brent down 1% to $48.66 a barrel, while gold futures edged 0.4% higher to $1,1840. |
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| Broker Tips | Broker tips: Smiths Group, WH Smith, Burberry Exane BNP Paribas downgraded Smiths Group to 'underperform' from 'neutral' and cut the price target to 830p from 1,000p. The bank said new management inherits two legacy issues. Firstly, it noted that organic sales growth has lagged the sector for years and said growth for both the medical and John Crane businesses will be tough. Secondly, it said the situation regarding legacy liabilities has improved but these issues are not fully resolved. Exane said its analysis suggests the cash cost of a final solution may still be too high, limiting the options for a break-up scenario. "Something has to give; we think the dividend will have to be cut. Under our dividend assumption, the shares actually yield less than the rest of the sector," it said. Peel Hunt upgraded WH Smith to 'add' from 'hold' and lifted the price target to 1,680p from 1,500p following the company's full-year results. "WH Smith is taking full advantage of positive macro trends in Travel, continuing to find cost savings on the high street but crucially is also developing its international arm profitably," the broker said, adding that cash generation has remained strong. The brokerage said the high street business continues to find cost savings and is highly cash generative, and it was possible to apply a fairly lowly multiple to the business and still come up with a sum-of-the-parts valuation nicely above the current share price. Bank of America Merrill Lynch has downgraded Burberry to 'neutral' and cut its target to 1,500p after the fashion group's first-half sales fell short of forecasts. Burberry management have been quick to kickstart cost cutting to preserve profits but while full-year earnings before interest and tax of £445m was confirmed as still on target, in line with consensus, Merrill said the assumption of a return of mid-single digit was "too optimistic". "While we do not question Burberry's brand equity, strategy or execution," analysts concluded, "the trading environment is tough and only amplified by its geography mix." |
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