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Oct 1, 2014

Morning Euro Markets Bulletin

 
ADVFN  Morning Euro Markets Bulletin
Daily world financial news Wednesday, 01 October 2014 09:52:36
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London Market Report
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London open: Stocks slightly lower after Eurozone PMIs

The Footsie has begun the Wednesday session trading lower following downbeat performances from both US and Asian markets overnight and ahead of the latest manufacturing sector data out Stateside this afternoon.
The FTSE 100 was 34 points lower at 6,589 as of 09:20.

"Today we have the latest manufacturing PMI numbers for September [in the UK] and there is a risk that the uncertainty surrounding the Scottish referendum may have prompted a slow down here," said CMC chief market analyst Michael Hewson.

"As it was, in August, we saw manufacturing activity slump to a 14-month low at 52.5, though expectations for the September number today are for a modest uptick to 52.7."

Ahead of that reference, the latest German purchasing managers index (PMI) came in at 49.9 for September, marking the first contraction in the sector in 15 months.

In parallel, earlier this morning China's national bureau of statistics released its official manufacturing sector purchasing managers' index, which came in at 51.1 for September, as expected.

The figures prompted economists at Capital Economics to write: "Today's official PMI suggests the while conditions have held up better than many had expected on the back of healthy foreign demand, the cooling continued to weigh on economic activity and import demand.

"[...] the PMIs also show that domestic demand remains subdued and that the cooling property sector continues to be a drag."

Tesco shares act as a drag on the entire sector

In company news, Tesco has been notified by the financial regulator that a full investigation has begun into its recent profit overstatement. The Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) notified the FTSE 100 grocer that it will look into its £250m overstatement of expected profit for the half year, alongside the "independent" review by Tesco's accountants Deloitte. Tesco said it will continue to co-operate fully with the FCA and other relevant authorities considering the matter.

Second quarter numbers from Sainsbury were better than expected, with like-for-like sales down 2.4% as competitive forces in the grocery market accelerated. Like-for-like sales for the first six months of the year have therefore fallen 2.1% and the company expects this to be roughly repeated in the second half. Total retail sales for the second quarter were down 0.8% excluding fuel, meaning total retail sales for the first half were flat excluding fuel.

Building merchant Grafton Group has completed the acquisition of Brussels-based Gedimat-Ginion. Grafton said the addition expands and complements its coverage of the Brussels market following the acquisition earlier this year of Mpro.


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Market Movers
techMARK 2,805.11 -0.25%
FTSE 100 6,587.35 -0.53%
FTSE 250 15,321.84 -0.38%

FTSE 100 - Risers
Royal Mail (RMG) 406.90p +3.75%
Wolseley (WOS) 3,295.00p +1.63%
Imperial Tobacco Group (IMT) 2,680.00p +0.60%
Carnival (CCL) 2,477.00p +0.53%
Barclays (BARC) 228.40p +0.42%
Burberry Group (BRBY) 1,517.00p +0.40%
TUI Travel (TT.) 390.50p +0.36%
Compass Group (CPG) 1,000.00p +0.35%
Capita (CPI) 1,168.00p +0.34%
CRH (CRH) 1,414.00p +0.28%

FTSE 100 - Fallers
Morrison (Wm) Supermarkets (MRW) 160.20p -4.81%
Sainsbury (J) (SBRY) 242.90p -3.42%
BG Group (BG.) 1,105.50p -3.03%
Tesco (TSCO) 180.55p -3.03%
Tullow Oil (TLW) 629.50p -2.33%
British Land Co (BLND) 691.00p -1.64%
Anglo American (AAL) 1,364.00p -1.45%
Randgold Resources Ltd. (RRS) 4,149.00p -1.43%
Fresnillo (FRES) 749.50p -1.38%
Antofagasta (ANTO) 711.50p -1.32%

FTSE 250 - Risers
Countrywide (CWD) 470.00p +4.12%
Afren (AFR) 107.60p +3.96%
Synthomer (SYNT) 217.80p +2.74%
St. Modwen Properties (SMP) 376.00p +2.45%
Brit (BRIT) 244.90p +1.28%
Rightmove (RMV) 2,177.00p +1.16%
Lancashire Holdings Limited (LRE) 646.50p +1.02%
COLT Group SA (COLT) 135.00p +0.97%
Playtech (PTEC) 724.50p +0.91%
CSR (CSR) 764.50p +0.86%

FTSE 250 - Fallers
Ferrexpo (FXPO) 107.00p -4.72%
Polymetal International (POLY) 494.60p -4.15%
Fidessa Group (FDSA) 2,198.00p -4.06%
UBM (UBM) 559.50p -4.03%
Smith (DS) (SMDS) 257.20p -3.42%
Evraz (EVR) 125.80p -3.23%
Lonmin (LMI) 180.10p -3.07%
Ophir Energy (OPHR) 222.30p -3.05%
Zoopla Property Group (WI) (ZPLA) 230.00p -2.79%


UK Event Calendar

Wednesday October 01

INTERIMS
Walker Greenbank

INTERIM DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATE
888 Holdings, Avesco Group, FBD Holdings, Jardine Lloyd Thompson Group, Legal & General Group, Novae Group, Portmeirion Group, Robinson, RTC Group

INTERIM EX-DIVIDEND DATE
32Red, Advanced Medical Solutions Group, Air Partner, Barr (A.G.), Bodycote, Braime (T.F.& J.H.) Holdings, Braime (T.F.& J.H.) Holdings (Non-Voting), BrainJuicer Group, Cello Group, Epwin Group, Fairpoint Group, Fisher (James) & Sons, Hargreave Hale AIM VCT 2, Highland Gold Mining Ltd., Huntsworth, IDOX, Inmarsat, Intertek Group, Journey Group, Keywords Studios, Lighthouse Group, Morgan Sindall Group, Morrison (Wm) Supermarkets, NAHL Group, New Europe Property Investments, Northbridge Industrial Services, Safestyle UK , Smurfit Kappa Group, Somero Enterprises Inc.(Reg S), Stadium Group, Tandem Group

QUARTERLY EX-DIVIDEND DATE
Albion Technology & General VCT, British Land Co, CQS Diversified Fund Ltd Ord NPV £, Investors Capital Trust 'A' Shares, Mercantile Investment Trust (The), Schroder Income Growth Fund, Torchmark Corp.

INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTS
Auto Sales (US) (15:00)
Construction Spending (US) (15:00)
Crude Oil Inventories (US) (15:30)
ISM Manufacturing (US) (15:00)
ISM Prices Paid (US) (15:00)
MBA Mortgage Applications (US) (12:00)
PMI Manufacturing (EU) (09:00)
PMI Manufacturing (GER) (08:55)

GMS
Beacon Hill Resources

FINALS
James Halstead

AGMS
Kromek Group

TRADING ANNOUNCEMENTS
ITE Group, Sainsbury (J)

UK ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTS
PMI Manufacturing (09:30)

FINAL DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATE
Park Group, PZ Cussons, Stagecoach Group

FINAL EX-DIVIDEND DATE
Abbey, Accumuli , Anite, Hansard Global, HML Holdings, JPMorgan Mid Cap Inv Trust, Mid Wynd International Inv Trust, Murgitroyd Group, Smith (DS)


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Europe Market Report
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Europe open: Stocks little changed as Italy lowers GDP forecasts

European stocks were little changed as Italy lowered its economic-growth forecasts and investors awaited a report on US jobs.
Italy's gross domestic product (GDP) is expected to shrink 0.3% this year, compared to an April estimate for an increase of 0.8%, the nation's government said. The government also forecast a slower-than-expected recovery in 2015, with GDP growing 0.6% compared with a previous estimate of 1.3%.

In France, the government will delay a target to reduce its budget deficit to 3% of GDP until 2017 due to weak growth and low inflation, Les Echos reported. France will need to request the European Union's permission for a third delay in reaching its deficit targets, the paper added.

In the US, a report from ADP Research Institute is forecast to show that companies hired 205,000 workers in September, compared to 204,000 in August.

Separate data is expected to show US manufacturing continued to expand in September.

Orange, Afren

Orange declined as Bpifrance is selling a stake in the phone company for as much as €595m.

Afren advanced after saying an independent review by Willkie Farr & Gallagher LLP hasn't found more improper payments.

Tesco's shares slumped after it announced the Financial Conduct Authority has launched an investigation into the supermarket chain following its admission it had overstated its half-year profit guidance by £250m.

The euro fell 0.30% to $1.2593.


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US Market Report

US close: Markets slide as consumers' confidence declines

US stocks fell on Tuesday, as small-cap and energy shares dropped after an unexpected decline in consumer confidence.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 28.32 down to 17,042.90 points, the Nasdaq dropped 12.46 to 4,493.39 points, while the S&P 500 lost 5.51 to 1,972.29 points.

Confidence among US consumers suffered an unexpected decline in September, hitting a four-month low. The Conference Board's index fell from a reading of 93.4 in August, the highest in the last seven years, to 86 in September, below even the most pessimistic forecasts.

US home prices rose 0.6% in July, while the Chicago performance manager index recorded a strong reading in September, despite a slight slowdown, as inventories rose at the highest pace in 41 years.

Investors remained cautious amid mixed news from Europe, where in September inflation in the Eurozone hit a five-year low, while the German unemployment data was largely disappointed.

Both factors could add pressure to the European Central Bank (ECB) to introduce quantitative easing measures when it meets on Thursday, though analysts expect the ECB to refrain from using more aggressive policies in the immediate future.

In corporate news, Move leapt 37% after News Corporation announced it had reached a deal to acquire the online real-estate business for $21 a share, while Ebay rose 7.54% after the firm said it had plans to spin off Paypal in a transaction expected to be completed in the second half of 2015.

Catalyst Pharmaceutical Partners rose 11.04% after it announced on Monday that a late-stage study showed that sufferers of an autoimmune disorder that causes muscle weakness had benefited from the company's Firdapse treatment.

Having cut its full year earnings outlook late on Monday, Ford shares dropped 2.12%, while Supervalu fell 2.08% following the news it had found more data-capturing malware at stores on Monday.

The 10-year Treasury note climbed two basis points to 2.50, while the 30-year bond rose 0.04 to 3.21 and the five-year treasury note gained one basis point to 1.78.

West Texas intermediate crude fell 3.33% to $91,52 a barrel, while the dollar rose against the euro, pound and yen.

S&P 500 - Risers
eBay Inc. (EBAY) $56.63 +7.54%
Cintas Corp. (CTAS) $70.59 +7.04%
Wynn Resorts Ltd. (WYNN) $187.08 +4.52%
L-3 Communications Holdings Inc. (LLL) $118.92 +3.18%
Peabody Energy Corp. (BTU) $12.38 +2.91%
Masco Corp. (MAS) $23.92 +2.57%
Computer Sciences Corp. (CSC) $61.15 +2.57%
Accenture Plc (ACN) $81.32 +1.75%
Regeneron Pharmaceuticals Inc. (REGN) $360.52 +1.57%
EMC Corp. (EMC) $29.26 +1.49%

S&P 500 - Fallers
TE Connectivity Ltd (TEL) $55.29 -4.46%
Newfield Exploration Co (NFX) $37.07 -4.31%
LyondellBasell Industries (LYB) $108.66 -4.10%
Harman International Industries Inc. (HAR) $98.04 -3.91%
Iron Mountain Inc. (IRM) $32.65 -3.69%
United States Steel Corp. (X) $39.17 -3.59%
Borg Warner Inc. (BWA) $52.61 -3.13%
Allegheny Technologies Inc. (ATI) $37.10 -2.93%
Eog Resources Inc. (EOG) $99.02 -2.80%
Chesapeake Energy Corp. (CHK) $22.99 -2.75%

Dow Jones I.A - Risers
Visa Inc. (V) $213.37 +1.16%
Coca-Cola Co. (KO) $42.66 +0.97%
General Electric Co. (GE) $25.62 +0.79%
Wal-Mart Stores Inc. (WMT) $76.47 +0.51%
United Technologies Corp. (UTX) $105.60 +0.49%
Verizon Communications Inc. (VZ) $49.99 +0.48%
Walt Disney Co. (DIS) $89.03 +0.23%
Cisco Systems Inc. (CSCO) $25.17 +0.20%
Travelers Company Inc. (TRV) $93.94 +0.18%
International Business Machines Corp. (IBM) $189.83 +0.10%

Dow Jones I.A - Fallers
McDonald's Corp. (MCD) $94.81 -1.47%
Home Depot Inc. (HD) $91.74 -1.23%
Boeing Co. (BA) $127.38 -1.08%
Chevron Corp. (CVX) $119.32 -1.02%
Procter & Gamble Co. (PG) $83.74 -0.83%
Caterpillar Inc. (CAT) $99.03 -0.80%
Pfizer Inc. (PFE) $29.57 -0.67%
American Express Co. (AXP) $87.54 -0.47%
E.I. du Pont de Nemours and Co. (DD) $71.76 -0.40%
Exxon Mobil Corp. (XOM) $94.05 -0.40%

Nasdaq 100 - Risers
eBay Inc. (EBAY) $56.63 +7.54%
Wynn Resorts Ltd. (WYNN) $187.08 +4.52%
Regeneron Pharmaceuticals Inc. (REGN) $360.52 +1.57%
Whole Foods Market Inc. (WFM) $38.11 +1.46%
NetApp Inc. (NTAP) $42.96 +1.23%
Expedia Inc. (EXPE) $87.62 +1.20%
Western Digital Corp. (WDC) $97.32 +1.11%
CA Inc. (CA) $27.94 +1.09%
Vimpelcom Ltd Ads (VIP) $7.22 +0.98%
Cognizant Technology Solutions Corp. (CTSH) $44.77 +0.90%

Nasdaq 100 - Fallers
Charter Communications Inc. (CHTR) $151.37 -2.71%
Nxp Semiconductors Nv (NXPI) $68.43 -2.63%
Vodafone Group Plc ADS (VOD) $32.89 -2.00%
Sandisk Corp. (SNDK) $97.95 -1.74%
Liberty Global plc Series A (LBTYA) $42.54 -1.62%
Xilinx Inc. (XLNX) $42.35 -1.49%
Vertex Pharmaceuticals Inc. (VRTX) $112.31 -1.40%
KLA-Tencor Corp. (KLAC) $78.78 -1.33%
Alexion Pharmaceuticals Inc. (ALXN) $165.82 -1.27%


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Broker Tips

Broker tips: BAE Systems, Associated British Foods, Tesco

Shares of aerospace engineer BAE Systems have run up by 12% relative to the Footsie over the past quarter, but it's time to sell, say analysts at Westhouse Securities.
Thus, the firm can be expected to benefit from weakness in sterling. However, several negative aspects seen in recent reporting periods have been replaying themselves. Amongst these one might mention: a shipbuilding charge, slightly weak order intake, goodwill impairment and a potential disruption from the 'continuing resolution' (CR) in the US Congress.

The latter of those issues may likely endure longer than 2014, the broker says, to which one can add management's caution.

With only 19 voting days left for the house this year CR may well run into the next, Westhouse explains.

Furthermore, the company's book-to-bill ratio of 0.75 times the broker's 2014 revenue estimate is "low", despite the fact that the average contract duration for the company is longer than for others.

For all of the above reasons Westhouse Securities reiterated its sell recommendation and 469p target.



As emerging market economies continue to slow and the developed world takes centre stage it is hard to find a better structural growth story than Primark, analysts at Credit Suisse explained to clients on Tuesday. For that reason they decided to upgrade their recommendation on the stock to 'outperform'.

In their opinion the 2015/16 year should see a significant increase in earnings per share (EPS) as the number of Primark establishments opening accelerates and the company enters the US. As well, the profitability of the sugar division has reached its trough, they believe, and will likely recover smartly as the lower beet prices feed into earnings.

EPS, they calculate, will expand at a 15% clip.

Hence, the stock's EPS multiple is now forecast to decrease to 24 times next year in comparison to 30 times this year.

Given that the Swiss broker's 'sum-of-the-parts' valuation is still pointing to a price target of £30 it has decided to upgrade its recommendation on the shares to 'outperform' from 'neutral', with a 3,000 price target.

As of 16:12 shares in Associated British Foods are advancing 4.53% to 2,679p.



For analysts at Nomura the latest 'profit warning' from Tesco puts that company's credit metrics effectively into 'junk' territory, as per a research note issued on 29 September.

As regards the company's fundamentals, if one takes the better part of the firm's £250m profit warning at face value then that means its operating margins in the UK, on an EBIT basis, would come in at 2.8%.

The key metric is the company's gearing they point out and, in turn from the above, they estimate that the retailer's net debt to operating earnings (adjusted EBITDAR) comes in at 3.65, whereas the threshold for 'junk' in the sector comes in at 3.5.

However, while they believe that a rights issue just got "a lot more likely" they still do not believe it should be the "base case" , nor do they believe it would be the right thing for the supermarket operator to do.

Hence, they further point out that on the basis of the company's debt refinancing schedule, and of the current likely rates - using CDS on existing debt as a proxy for example - suggest the impact of becoming and remaining junk for several years in terms of interest cost would be negligible.

Should the company attempt to recover a position in the middle of the pack in terms of the aforementioned debt multiple that would imply raising about £2bn, or issuing approximately another 15% of shares, "probably at a significant discount".

The broker maintained its 'neutral' recommendation on the shares and 200p target.

 

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