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Oct 3, 2014

Evening Euro Markets Bulletin

 
ADVFN III Evening Euro Markets Bulletin
Daily world financial news Friday, 03 October 2014 17:49:28
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London close: FTSE ends on a high after US employment figures deliver suprise

It was a positive finish to the week for the FTSE, as stocks rebounded from four straight days of declines as US employment data beats expectations.

The FTSE 100 closed 81.52 points higher at 6,527.91, a drop of 123.25 on the week.

US non-farm payrolls rose to beat forecasts and the jobless rate fell unexpectedly, potentially adding to speculation of an interest rate hike.

Employers added 248,000 jobs in September, more than the 215,000 predicted by analysts, compared to 180,000 a month earlier. The unemployment rate fell to 5.9% from 6.1%, surprising the market which had projected it to remain unchanged.

The estimates for the previous two month's gains in non-farm payrolls were revised higher by a combined 65,000.

Back in the UK, the purchasing managers' index for the services industry dropped to 58.7 in September from 60.5, more than the 59 expected by analysts. However, it remained markedly above its lifetime average of 55.1 and substantially above the 50.0 level that denotes flat activity.

That came as data showed the Eurozone's service sector had unexpectedly cooled slightly in September.

The headline gauge slipped to a reading of 52.4 from 52.8 in the month before. Economists had been expecting a flat reading.

Easyjet soars after impressing with H2 update

Easyjet shares took off after the budget airline increased its outlook for the half year ended 30 September from between £545m and £570m to between £575m and £580m, thanks to a strong finish to the summer season, which saw increased revenue per seat. The group has also benefited from the Air France pilots' strike in September, which is expected to increase Easyjet's revenue by around £5m.

Cruise operator Carnival cheered with its third quarter results on Friday, after posting a rise in both quarterly and three-quarterly revenue. The FTSE 100 group said third quarter turnover climbed from $4.73bn to $4.95m year-on-year and from $11.8bn to $12.2m for the nine-month period.

United Utilities investors appeared to be satisfied with the company's revised pricing plan for the 2015-2020 period. The proposal would result in average household bills falling by 4.1% in real terms over the five-year period, compared with a 2.3% reduction put forward in its June plan.

Mining stocks tracked metal prices lower, with Fresnillo, Antofagasta, Rio Tinto, Anglo American, Randgold Resources and BHP Billiton all dropped into the red.

Tesco dropped amid further market chatter regarding the possibility of a rights issue. According to the FT Alphaville, a £3bn rights issue is now an option being considered. Sector peer Morrison Supermarkets also declined, but Sainsbury was seen at the other end of the index as it made a slight recovery following recent heavy losses.

On the second tier, engineering and project management company Amec pleased with its first half results, in which it maintained its outlook and reported progress with its purchase of Foster Wheeler.


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Market Movers
techMARK 2,789.65 +1.69%
FTSE 100 6,527.91 +1.26%
FTSE 250 15,230.08 +1.50%

FTSE 100 - Risers
easyJet (EZJ) 1,459.00p +6.42%
International Consolidated Airlines Group SA (CDI) (IAG) 365.20p +4.97%
Carnival (CCL) 2,444.00p +4.31%
Shire Plc (SHP) 5,455.00p +4.30%
ITV (ITV) 206.20p +4.25%
Ashtead Group (AHT) 1,018.00p +4.20%
Persimmon (PSN) 1,341.00p +3.55%
TUI Travel (TT.) 393.00p +3.39%
United Utilities Group (UU.) 810.00p +3.25%
Next (NXT) 6,650.00p +3.02%

FTSE 100 - Fallers
Fresnillo (FRES) 720.00p -3.94%
Tesco (TSCO) 172.15p -3.40%
Antofagasta (ANTO) 680.50p -2.58%
Tullow Oil (TLW) 600.00p -1.56%
Randgold Resources Ltd. (RRS) 4,091.00p -1.54%
Rio Tinto (RIO) 2,949.50p -1.29%
RSA Insurance Group (RSA) 469.90p -1.20%
BHP Billiton (BLT) 1,650.50p -0.99%
Anglo American (AAL) 1,314.50p -0.94%
Diageo (DGE) 1,744.00p -0.85%

FTSE 250 - Risers
Renishaw (RSW) 1,682.00p +5.79%
Mitchells & Butlers (MAB) 368.40p +5.56%
Pace (PIC) 307.70p +5.34%
Wetherspoon (J.D.) (JDW) 820.00p +5.13%
Crest Nicholson Holdings (CRST) 320.10p +4.99%
Amec (AMEC) 1,092.00p +4.50%
Dunelm Group (DNLM) 829.00p +4.41%
Genus (GNS) 1,175.00p +4.17%
Foxtons Group (FOXT) 226.90p +4.08%
Ted Baker (TED) 1,945.00p +3.84%

FTSE 250 - Fallers
African Barrick Gold (ABG) 206.30p -6.61%
Lonmin (LMI) 167.10p -4.89%
Evraz (EVR) 116.40p -4.20%
Polymetal International (POLY) 480.60p -3.30%
Kennedy Wilson Europe Real Estate (KWE) 1,028.00p -2.93%
Domino's Pizza Group (DOM) 563.50p -2.00%
Zoopla Property Group (WI) (ZPLA) 214.00p -1.11%
Spire Healthcare Group (SPI) 285.00p -1.04%
Kazakhmys (KAZ) 242.00p -0.86%
Go-Ahead Group (GOG) 2,523.00p -0.63%


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Europe Market Report
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Europe close: Stocks rise as US non-farm payrolls beat forecasts

European stocks were higher as US non-farm payrolls rose more than forecast and the unemployment rate unexpectedly fell.

Employers added 248,000 jobs in September, more than the 215,000 predicted by analysts, compared to 142,000 a month earlier. The unemployment rate fell to 5.9% from 6.1%, surprising the market which had projected it to remain unchanged.

Average hourly earnings, however, eased back with a 2% increase in September, compared to a 2.1% rise in August. Economists had pencilled in a 2.2% gain.

The data is an important economic indicator for the Federal Reserve as it considers the timing of an interest rate rise.

“The US economy is steadily improving month by month and investors have been readying themselves what’s coming in the form of higher interest rates, as the dollar continues to trade higher striving for a new equilibrium,” said Angus Campbell, senior analyst at FXPro.

Earlier on in the session, a report showed Eurozone retail sales rose 1.9% in August, following a revised 0.5% increase a month earlier, beating expectations for a 0.7% gain.

The euro-area September services purchasing managers’ index (PMI) fell to 52.4 from 52.8 the previous month, compared to forecasts for an unchanged reading. A level above 50 signals expansion.

The data comes a day after European Central Bank (ECB) President Mario Draghi said the Eurozone remains fragile and weak, voicing his concerns about a prolonged period low inflation. The ECB announced it would keep key rates unchanged and unveiled the details of its ABS and covered bonds packages which begin mid-October and last two years.

In the UK, the services PMI dropped to 58.7 in September from 60.5, more than the 59 expected by analysts.

Tesco, Easyjet

Tesco slumped on reports the UK supermarket is considering options including a rights offering of about £3bn amid an investigation into its accountancy practices.

Easyjet was flying higher after reporting a strong finish to the year and increasing its outlook for the second half.

Immofinanz advanced after UniCredit agreed to sell its stake in an Austrian real estate unit to another bidder.

United Utilities gained after announcing a revised business for 2015-2020 that cuts planned expenditure by about £370m.

The euro fell 1.20% to $1.2517.

Brent crude futures dropped 1.776% to $91.79 per barrel, according to the ICE.


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US Market Report

US open: Markets rebound after better-than-expected payrolls data

Markets advanced on Friday, as a better-than-forecast payrolls report boosted confidence in US economy.
Non-farm payrolls rose to 248,000 in September, exceeding consensus expectations of 215,000, while July and August figures were revised up by a net 69,000 people, somewhat reducing the impact of last month's surprise fall.

The average figure for jobs gains in 2014 now stands at 227,000.

"The recovery continues apace, helped by super loose Fed policy," said Berenberg analyst Rob Wood.

"These latest payrolls figures bode well for a strong third quarter and will raise concerns about how long the Fed will be able to keep rates on hold once it finishes tapering bond purchases, which it should do this month.

"So far the central bank has said it will keep rates on hold for a 'considerable period'. We look for the first rate hike in April."

The unemployment rate fell again after a few months of stability, declining to a six-year low 5.9% in September, continuing a trend that has seen the unemployment rate fall 1.3% over the past 12 months.

The participation rate fell to 62.7%, its lowest level since 1978, as workers did not seem to be returning to the workforce, despite a growing economy.

Radioshack soared as high as 36% before the bell after investors reacted positively to the news that the retailer had reached a financing agreement, meaning the company could successfully restructure.

Mylan rose after raising its third-quarter and full-year guidance, while Salix Pharmaceuticals and Cosmo Technologies bot rose sharply after Salix abandoned plans of merging with the technology firm, which had been structured as a controversial tax-inversion deal.

Tekmira Pharmaceuticals rose amid reports that of an increasing number of Ebola cases in the US, while Legacy Reserves fell after announcing it was planning a new unwritten public offering.

Gold prices sank on Friday, with gold for December losing 1.1% to $1,201.90 an ounce, while West Texas intermediate crude dropped 0.5% and was trading at just over $90 a barrel.

The 10-treasury note rose three basis points to 2.46, while the 30-year treasury yield gained 1.25% to 3.15 and the five-year note gained six basis points to 1.74.


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Broker tips: Tullow Oil, cap

On Friday analysts at Credit Suisse lowered their price target on shares of oil explorer Tullow Oil to 800p from 885p beforehand.

That comes on the heels of their recent reduced forecasts for the price of oil, although the impact  of that was expected to be partially offset by a moderately lower pound.   

“Our core NAV falls to ~620p (from ~670p) with the rest of the delta to our target coming from exploration. The risk/reward now starts to look more favourable, particularly if you believe in further value creation from Kenya; these non-Wall Street barrels (e.g., Jubilee, Kenya etc) can be had (as an investor or as an oil company given the inability for many to add sufficient barrels organically) at relatively attractive prices now.”

However, the Swiss broker cautioned that there were four factors worth remembering: (1) Majors appear to be focused for now on the 'new religion' of capital discipline and restructuring their businesses, (2) US oil companies are selling international assets, (3) NOCs are absent for now, and (4) the uncertain oil price outlook. It is important that the SUP/DEM fundamentals establish a firm floor in the $90s stability is welcome.

The recommendation on Tullow was also kept at ‘neutral’.

On the same day Credit Suisse also reiterated its ‘underperform’ recommendation on Icap stock, while keeping its price target at 370p.

Nevertheless, it did trim its fiscal year 2015 earnings per share forecast by 7% so as to reflect slightly weaker revenues in the first half and an FX ‘headwind’ on costs.

Nevertheless, it added, there were some positive signals. In particular: (1) a rebound in EBS ADV (strongest month since Jun-13, helped by strong progress from the newer EBS Direct platform; (2) better than expected growth in the Post Trade and Information division; and (3) in-line progress on the cost efficiency programme, with broker headcount being reduced by 265.

Even so, it was still “too early to get positive: clearly the macro volatility in September - particularly in FX - provided a helpful tailwind.”

 

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