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Dec 20, 2013

Evening Euro Markets Bulletin

 
ADVFN III Evening Euro Markets Bulletin
Daily world financial news Friday, 20 December 2013 17:28:15
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London Market Report
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London close: Stocks end week higher after six straight falls

- FTSE 100 at highest since November 29th
- GDP revised higher in UK and US
- Vedanta gains ahead of FTSE reshuffle
- BAE tumbles after missing out on UAE contract

techMARK 2,737.30 +0.08%
FTSE 100 6,606.58 +0.33%
FTSE 250 15,636.59 +0.30%

UK stocks pushed higher on Friday, sending the FTSE 100 to its highest level in three weeks, as economic growth was revised higher in the UK and US.

Markets were building on gains made yesterday as investors celebrated the Federal Reserve's move to end months of uncertainty by tapering its stimulus programme.

The FTSE 100 finished 21.88 points higher at 6,606.58, extending its weekly rise to 2.6%. It has not closed above the 6,600 level since November 29th.

"The FTSE looks set to close out the week on a positive note after the previous six weekly falls. With just over a week of trading left in 2013 there is still a chance that the index will be able to maintain the December rally that it has enjoyed every year for the last decade," said Alastair McCaig, Market Analyst at IG.

"If that does transpire, however, it will no doubt feel like a hollow victory, as the index has been sitting in the red for so long," he said.

Data revisions boost markets

The year-on-year expansion of UK gross domestic product in the third quarter was revised up to 1.9%, from an earlier estimate of 1.5% after upwards changes to historic figures.

Meanwhile, US GDP expanded by 4.1% in the three months to September, its fastest pace in two years and higher than the previous figure showing 3.6% growth.

Not all data was positive today though as Britain's deficit with the rest of the world widened to £20.7bn from £6.2bn in the third quarter, equivalent to 5.1% of GDP - its biggest share of GDP since 1989.

Data also released this morning showed that UK consumer confidence deteriorated this month. The GfK Consumer Confidence Index fell from -12 to -13 in December, surprising analysts who had expected a small up-tick to -11.

Markets were higher across Europe despite the news that Standard & Poor's has downgraded its long-term debt rating for the European Union from 'AAA' to 'AA+'. Meanwhile, Asian markets finished mixed overnight amid continuing volatility in China's money-market rates, which rose for a third straight day.

Vedanta gains ahead of FTSE 100 exit

Vedanta Resources was a high riser this afternoon as it continues to recover after its poor performance over the last month. The stock is expected to be ejected from the FTSE 100 next week in the index's latest quarterly reshuffle and will be replaced by Royal Mail.

Other miners including Anglo American and Randgold Resources, however, finished in the red.

BAE Systems was a heavy faller after the United Arab Emirates withdrew its interest in buying 60 Eurofighter Typhoon jet fighters, a major blow for the defence group which had been in talks regarding the £6bn contract for over a year.

Cruise operator Carnival Corp. extended gains after beating forecasts with its full-year results yesterday. Credit Suisse gave the stock a boost today by upgrading its rating to ‘outperform’ from ‘neutral’.

William Hill declined after a strong surge yesterday as it confirmed that it plans to maintain its online betting base in Gibraltar despite new tax laws that are expected to cost the firm tens of millions of pounds.


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FTSE 100 - Risers
Vedanta Resources (VED) 848.50p +5.14%
Carnival (CCL) 2,389.00p +3.33%
Coca-Cola HBC AG (CDI) (CCH) 1,728.00p +2.92%
Tesco (TSCO) 332.20p +2.58%
Kingfisher (KGF) 385.00p +2.07%
Travis Perkins (TPK) 1,805.00p +1.86%
Legal & General Group (LGEN) 218.00p +1.77%
Aggreko (AGK) 1,665.00p +1.71%
Schroders (SDR) 2,503.00p +1.67%
Smiths Group (SMIN) 1,452.00p +1.54%

FTSE 100 - Fallers
BAE Systems (BA.) 422.10p -4.50%
Severn Trent (SVT) 1,661.00p -1.77%
Anglo American (AAL) 1,261.00p -1.71%
William Hill (WMH) 384.50p -1.71%
Sports Direct International (SPD) 718.00p -1.31%
SABMiller (SAB) 2,999.00p -1.30%
SSE (SSE) 1,355.00p -1.24%
Randgold Resources Ltd. (RRS) 3,765.00p -1.21%
easyJet (EZJ) 1,506.00p -0.92%
BG Group (BG.) 1,247.50p -0.80%

FTSE 250 - Risers
Genus (GNS) 1,274.00p +4.51%
COLT Group SA (COLT) 130.50p +4.40%
Domino Printing Sciences (DNO) 766.50p +4.14%
Catlin Group Ltd. (CGL) 574.00p +3.99%
Lancashire Holdings Limited (LRE) 800.50p +3.76%
Beazley (BEZ) 269.20p +3.54%
Renishaw (RSW) 1,871.00p +3.54%
Balfour Beatty (BBY) 289.80p +3.50%
Hiscox Ltd (HSX) 690.00p +3.37%
Bank of Georgia Holdings (BGEO) 2,375.00p +3.35%

FTSE 250 - Fallers
Menzies(John) (MNZS) 715.00p -9.03%
Dialight (DIA) 813.00p -6.07%
Essar Energy (ESSR) 68.15p -5.22%
Chemring Group (CHG) 205.00p -4.65%
Greggs (GRG) 415.00p -4.49%
Polymetal International (POLY) 493.10p -4.44%
Perform Group (PER) 217.80p -3.37%
Hochschild Mining (HOC) 123.20p -3.37%
Domino's Pizza Group (DOM) 482.90p -3.09%
Petra Diamonds Ltd.(DI) (PDL) 113.80p -3.07%


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Europe Market Report
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Europe close: US economic data boosts stocks

- US economic growth revised upwards
- Eurozone and German consumer confidence rises
- S&P downgrades rating of EU
- UK GDP revised upwards
- UK consumer confidence falls

FTSE 100: 0.21%
DAX: 0.69%
CAC 40: 0.40%
FTSE MIB: 0.60%
IBEX 35: 0.16%
Stoxx 60: 0.52%

European stocks advanced as an upwards revision to economic growth estimates in the US confirmed the Federal Reserve was correct to reduce monetary stimulus.

US gross domestic product rose by its fastest rate in two years during the third quarter, according to a revision of initial estimates by the Commerce Department. It said that the economy expanded by 4.1% in the three months to September, much higher than the previous figure showing 3.6% growth.

The upwardly revised data was due to a faster-than-expected increase in consumer spending and business investment during the quarter.

It comes after the Federal Reserve announced it would reduce its monthly bond purchases to $75bn from $85bn and would make further cuts gradually subject to economic data.

In the UK, GDP was up 0.8% in the July-to-September period compared with the previous quarter. It was in line with previous figures but growth in the earlier quarter was revised up. On a year-on-year basis, growth was 1.9%, revised up from an earlier estimate of 1.5%.

Also in the UK, GfK’s consumer confidence index for the UK fell from -12 to -13 in December, surprising analysts who had expected a small up-tick to -11.

On a brighter note for European markets, GfK's forward-looking consumer sentiment indicator for Germany rose to 7.6 points in January from 7.4 points in December, the highest level since August 2007. Economists had expected it to remain unchanged.

Eurozone consumer confidence also improved in December, according to data from the European Commission.

Confidence in the 17 countries using the euro improved to -13.6 points from a dip to -15.4 in November. Economists had pencilled in a fall to -15. The data signalled that the nascent economic recovery in the Eurozone may be starting to positively affect household sentiment.

S&P downgrades EU

Standard & Poor’s stripped the European Union of its triple-A rating due to a decline in overall creditworthiness and decreasing cohesion amidst its 28 members.

The agency cut the region's credit rating to 'AA+' from the prior 'AAA' with a stable outlook.

“In our view, EU budgetary negotiations have become more contentious, signalling what we consider to be rising risks to the support of the EU from some member states,” S&P said in the report.

BAE, Carnival

BAE slumped after the defence company said yesterday that the United Arab Emirates ended talks to buy its Eurofighter Typhoon.

Cruise operator Carnival continued to advance as executives said yesterday both pricing and booking levels are returning to historical norms after being decimated by ship problems.

Retailers M&S, Tesco, Sainsbury and Morrison rebounded after a poor performance in recent days.

Telenet gained after Goldman Sachs raised its rating on the stock to ‘buy’ from ‘neutral’, citing growth prospects.

Lundin Petroleum retreated after Norway said the Swedish oil explorer drilled a dry well.

The euro rose 0.12% to $1.3677.

Brent crude futures climbed $0.952 to $111.350 per barrel, according to the ICE.


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US Market Report

US open: Markets set to hit new records after GDP revised higher

- US GDP revised higher
- Dow and S&P 500 on track for record highs
- Red Hat, Carnival beat forecasts
- BlackBerry agrees deal with Foxconn

Dow Jones: 0.42%
Nasdaq: 0.63%
S&P 500: 0.44%

US markets were registering solid gains on Friday morning after an upwards revision to economic growth lifted the Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P 500 to record highs.

The Dow looked set to hit its third all-time closing high in a row, while the S&P 500 recovered after a fall yesterday to hit its highest ever intraday level in morning trade.

US gross domestic product rose by its fastest rate in two years during the third quarter, according to a revision of initial estimates by the Commerce Department. It said that the economy expanded by 4.1% in the three months to September, much higher than the previous figure showing 3.6% growth.

The upwardly revised data was due to a faster-than-expected increase in consumer spending and business investment during the quarter.

Nevertheless, as Analyst Peter Newland from Barclays pointed out, the quarter "continues to be characterised by an unusually sharp build in inventories".

"Timely retail and auto sales data suggest that consumption growth should pick up further in Q4, adding to domestic demand, although inventory accumulation is likely to fall back. Our published forecast for Q4 GDP growth remains at 1.5%," he said.

The focus has been on economic data this week after the Federal Reserve chose to scale back its quantitative easing programme in light of a stronger economic outlook. The Fed also said it would continue to gradually introduce further reductions if data points to further recovery in the world’s biggest economy.

The central bank is expected to reduce its bond purchases by $10bn in each of its next seven meetings before ending the programme in December 2014, according to a median forecast in a Bloomberg survey of 41 economists conducted on December 19th.

Red Hat, Carnival, BlackBerry

Red Hat gained after the software company raised its full-year profit and sales forecast and posted third-quarter earnings that beat analysts’ expectations.

Carnival Corp. continued to rally after its annual results yesterday as Credit Suisse raised its rating to ‘outperform’ from ‘neutral’ after the cruise operator's 2014 earnings guidance exceeded analysts’ estimates.

Mobile phone group BlackBerry surged after agreeing to a five-year partnership with Taiwan-based gadget maker Foxconn. Investors were largely shrugging off a worse-than-expected loss for the third quarter.

Drugstore group Walgreen advanced after hitting forecasts with its first-quarter profits which rose solidly on last year. CarMax, however, failed to meet targets with its third-quarter earnings.


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Broker Tips

Carnival, BAE Systems, Euromoney

Cruise operator Carnival's full-year results released on Thursday could be an 'inflection point for sentiment', according to analysts at Numis Securities. Nevertheless, the broker has left its 'hold' rating and 2,250p target in place.

"The key messages from yesterday's FY13 results for Carnival, in our view, were that: perception of the Carnival brands is recovering more quickly than expected; recent booking patterns have been encouraging with Q4 yields ahead of expectations; and costs are being tightly managed with guidance for FY14 much improved," Numis said.

UBS has lowered its target for defence group BAE Systems from 490p to 475p after the United Arab Emirates withdrew its interest in buying 60 Eurofighter Typhoon jet fighters.

"We previously estimated the value to BAE Systems was 30p in net present value terms, to which we had allocated a probability win of 50% - as a result we are reducing our price target by 15p to 475p." However, the bank maintained its 'buy' rating for the stock.

Westhouse Securities has downgraded its rating for magazine publisher Euromoney Institutional Investor from 'neutral' to 'sell', saying that the stock's valuation is looking stretched.

The broker explained that the share price has increased by 12% since it last updated its forecasts and increased its target to 1,110p in the aftermath of last month's full-year results. It said that the report was accompanied by an "encouraging rather than spectacular update which prompted a marginal uplift in consensus, we left our forecasts unchanged, and when coupled with relatively modest medium-term growth prospects … did not suggest scope for a significant re-rating"

 

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