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Dec 10, 2013

Evening Euro Markets Bulletin

 
ADVFN III Evening Euro Markets Bulletin
Daily world financial news Tuesday, 10 December 2013 17:39:45
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London Market Report
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London close: Stocks slip after weak start on Wall Street

- Markets fall as investors look ahead to Fed meeting
- Economic data from China, UK comes in mixed
- Gold miners track metal prices higher
- Weir gains on M&A rumours

techMARK 2,672.70 -0.26%
FTSE 100 6,523.31 -0.55%
FTSE 250 15,410.79 +0.12%

UK stocks finished firmly lower on Tuesday after erasing earlier gains, as markets began to adopt a cautious approach ahead of the Federal Reserve's policy meeting next week.

Equities dropped into the red after a weak start on Wall Street with investors taking profits after the S&P 500 hit another all-time high on Monday evening – its 39th record close of the year.

Speculation about a tapering of stimulus in the States has ramped up over recent day after a much-better-than-expected US jobs report and comments from a number of Fed officials. St Louis Fed President James Bullard in particular floated the idea of a "small taper" this month given the recent improvements in the labour market.

The FTSE 100 finished 36.17 points lower at 6,523.31, a fall of 0.55% on the day.

"The residual positivity from the US equity closes this morning has worn off, as investors look ahead to the rest of the week and the economic releases that may potentially cement even a small scaling back of asset purchases this month," said Senior Market Strategist Brenda Kelly from IG.

According to a recent survey by Bloomberg, 12 out of 35 economists believe that the Fed will begin to taper at its meeting on December 17-18th, nine said a withdrawal will start in January while the remaining 14 don't expect a scaling back of stimulus until March.

Investors were also digesting a raft of mixed economic data from China today, as a pick-up in retail sales growth in November came alongside a slowdown in industrial output and fixed-asset investments.

Meanwhile, in the UK, industrial and manufacturing production growth both accelerated in October, but the trade deficit for October was wider than expected.

"With all the recent bullish news about the UK's recovery with George Osborne declaring the job was half done at his autumn statement, [the trade data] could act as a stark reminder that we aren't out of the woods just yet," said Financial Sales Trader Alex Conroy from Spreadex.

Precious metal miners jump

Randgold Resources topped the leader board this afternoon, tracking the price of gold higher, which was up 2.25% at $1,262 a barrel. Even Fresnillo was higher, erasing earlier losses after it lowered its annual gold production forecast by 8.4% to 425,900 ounces.

Engineering group Weir was another high riser, extending gains after a solid performance on Monday on renewed rumours that it could be the target of a possible £5.9bn bid from US conglomerate General Electric.

Airline group IAG was still flying higher following yesterday's reports that subsidiary British Airways is looking to block changes to its APS pension scheme that could lead to increased payments to its retired employees.

Oil group Tullow continued to fall one day after saying it has plugged and abandoned its Tultule-1 wildcat well onshore Ethiopia after it failed to encounter oil.

Whitbread, the owner of the Premier Inn, Beefeater and Costa chains, fell despite saying it is on track to deliver full-year results in line with expectations following a strong third quarter.

Travel tour operator TUI Travel finished lower despite beating expectations with a 21% jump in full-year underlying profits. However, analyst James Hollins from Investec kept a 'sell' rating on the stock today, saying that earnings forecasts for the current year could come under pressure.

Investors at wireless technology firm CSR celebrated the company's decision to discontinue investment in its camera-on-a-chip (COACH) platform due to "weakness in the digital still camera market". The firm said it would be taking an impairment charge of $90m.


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FTSE 100 - Risers
Randgold Resources Ltd. (RRS) 4,141.00p +4.12%
Hargreaves Lansdown (HL.) 1,272.00p +3.58%
Weir Group (WEIR) 2,132.00p +2.90%
Fresnillo (FRES) 756.00p +1.89%
Prudential (PRU) 1,287.00p +1.66%
Smiths Group (SMIN) 1,399.00p +1.52%
Morrison (Wm) Supermarkets (MRW) 264.00p +1.42%
Mondi (MNDI) 975.00p +1.09%
Intertek Group (ITRK) 2,989.00p +1.08%
International Consolidated Airlines Group SA (CDI) (IAG) 370.00p +1.07%

FTSE 100 - Fallers
Standard Chartered (STAN) 1,284.00p -2.28%
Vedanta Resources (VED) 804.00p -2.13%
BHP Billiton (BLT) 1,807.50p -1.98%
Tullow Oil (TLW) 853.50p -1.84%
Croda International (CRDA) 2,268.00p -1.48%
TUI Travel (TT.) 378.30p -1.48%
GKN (GKN) 358.80p -1.43%
Whitbread (WTB) 3,475.00p -1.42%
Reckitt Benckiser Group (RB.) 4,714.00p -1.40%
GlaxoSmithKline (GSK) 1,579.50p -1.25%

FTSE 250 - Risers
CSR (CSR) 559.50p +9.71%
Hochschild Mining (HOC) 127.50p +4.59%
African Barrick Gold (ABG) 163.80p +4.33%
Kenmare Resources (KMR) 19.78p +4.27%
Petra Diamonds Ltd.(DI) (PDL) 114.70p +4.27%
Victrex (VCT) 1,631.00p +4.22%
AL Noor Hospitals Group (ANH) 917.00p +4.20%
Savills (SVS) 643.50p +4.04%
Ashtead Group (AHT) 740.00p +3.71%
Chemring Group (CHG) 206.40p +2.69%

FTSE 250 - Fallers
Essar Energy (ESSR) 67.05p -8.46%
Dialight (DIA) 845.00p -3.98%
Kazakhmys (KAZ) 206.40p -3.23%
esure Group (ESUR) 243.00p -2.80%
Enterprise Inns (ETI) 139.10p -2.39%
Premier Farnell (PFL) 209.90p -2.05%
Menzies(John) (MNZS) 759.50p -1.94%
Halfords Group (HFD) 467.90p -1.91%
Bodycote (BOY) 618.00p -1.90%
Greene King (GNK) 838.50p -1.87%

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Europe Market Report
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Europe close: Fed stimulus speculation weighs on market

- Investors speculate over Fed stimulus
- EU banks may miss deadlines for ECB stress test
- UK industrial production rises
- Chinese factory output slows
- Italy's economy stagnates

FTSE 100: -0.55%
DAX: -0.88%
CAC 40: -1.04%
FTSE MIB: -0.27%
IBEX 35: -0.52%
Stoxx 600: -0.71%

European stocks slipped on speculation that the Federal Reserve will begin scaling back its monetary stimulus at its meeting next week.

The Federal Open Market Committee is anticipated to announced a reduction of its monthly $85bn bond buying programme at its December 17th -18th meeting, according to 34% of economists surveyed December 6th by Bloomberg.

President of the St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank James Bullard said yesterday that given the improving labour market a small taper would allow the central bank to monitor inflation next year.

Last week the Labor Department revealed the unemployment rate fell to 7% in November, the lowest level in five years.

Bullard was one of three Fed speakers yesterday who hinted at the possibility of a withdrawal of quantitative easing.

Fed officials and well-known hawks Richard Fisher and Jeffrey Lacker warned of the risks and costs of the $85bn per month bond buying programme. They said central bankers would discuss pulling back the pace of its asset purchases but gave no specific details.

In other US news, Representative Steny Hoyer said in an interview on CNBC today that he doesn't like what he has heard about the budget deal.

US Congress has until Friday to reach a deal to reduce automatic spending cuts and break a three-year run of failed fiscal talks in Washington.

EU bank stress tests

Moody's warned today that some European Union banks may fail to provide accurate data and meet deadlines for next year's series of regulatory reviews.

Eurozone banks, which have already supplied their first batch of data for the European Central Bank's (ECB)supervisory risk assessment, will be asked for more data between January and June.

The mass of extra data will be used for the ECB's 'Asset Quality Review', which looks at whether banks have properly valued loans in key areas of their business.

UK and China factory output

UK industrial output rose in line with expectations by 0.4% in October, compared to a 0.9% increase in September, the Office for National Statistics revealed.

Chinese factory production climbed 10% in November from a year ago, compared to a 10.3% jump in October, the National Bureau of Statistic said. Analysts had predicted a 10.1% rise.

Meanwhile, in Italy the economy stagnated in the third quarter, ending two years of contraction.

National statistics bureau ISTAT revised up a preliminary estimate to show gross domestic product was unchanged between July and September, initially reported as a 0.1% fall.

Victrex, CGG

Victrex advanced as the UK maker of heat-resistant plastics for auto, energy and health-care companies proposed a final dividend of 32.65p, beating forecasts.

CGG SA rallied after Raymond James Financial Inc. a 'buy' rating for the French-based geophysical services company's stock.

Royal Vopak declined after the Dutch oil and gas tank storage provider said it was unlikely reach its goal of €1bn in earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortisation in 2016.

Randgold Resources topped the FTSE 100, tracking the price of gold higher, which was up $29, or 2.35%. Likewise, Fresnillo, which fell earlier in today's session, rebounded into positive territory despite lowering its annual gold production forecast by 8.4% to 425,900 ounces.

The euro rose 0.19% to $1.3765.

Brent crude futures dropped $0.524 to 108.810 per barrel, according to the ICE.


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US Market Report

US open: Stocks slip with taper, budget talks in focus

- S&P 500 pulls back from another record high
- Taper bets, budget talks dominate market sentiment
- Banks in focus ahead of Volcker Rule vote

Dow Jones: -0.08%
Nasdaq: -0.02%
S&P 500: -0.08%

US stocks edged slightly lower on Tuesday morning as the S&P 500 pulled back after hitting an all-time high the previous session, its 39th record close of the year so far.

However, downside was being limited after data showed that job openings rose to 3.93m in October, up from 3.88m the month before and ahead of forecasts.

Markets are continuing to focus on a potential tapering of stimulus ahead of the Federal Reserve's next policy meeting on December 17th to 18th. However, ongoing budget talks in Washington and a vote on new banking regulation were also being closely watched today.

Stocks gained yesterday despite increased bets over a taper after St Louis Fed President James Bullard said that a small taper of asset purchases might be possible this month. Meanwhile, Fed officials and well-known hawks Richard Fisher and Jeffrey Lacker also said that policymakers would discuss lowering the rate of asset purchases but gave no specific details.

According to a recent survey by Bloomberg, 12 out of 35 economists believe that the Fed will begin to taper at its meeting next week, nine said a withdrawal will start in January while the remaining 14 don't expect a scaling back of stimulus until March.

Talks in Washington were continuing to make headlines today as markets await details from the 29-member panel which is responsible for drawing up a budget blue-print for Congress by December 13th. However, while specific details of the talks remain unknown, House Democrat Steny Hoyer told CNBC: "I don't like the deal I've heard about".

Acting as a backdrop, Mark Hulbert from MarketWatch pointed out today that the Dow Jones Industrial Average could be hitting a "dangerous triple top", trading at similar levels (in inflation-adjusted terms) to its highs of 2000 and 2007. "It should give us pause to note that the market — strong as it has been — is only back to the level that turned the market back on two prior occasions," he said.

Outcome of Volcker Rule closely watched

Banking stocks were in focus today as investors await the outcome of the Volcker Rule, as Wall Street's top five regulators are set to vote on the plan to prohibit proprietary trading by banks. Goldman Sachs, Citigroup, Bank of America and JPMorgan Chase & Co were all making gains in morning trade, though some regional banks were trading lower.

Lululemon Athletica advanced after founder Chip Wilson stepped down as Chairman of yogawear retailer.

Rambus rallied after Micron Technology agreed to pay $280m in the next seven years for the right to use patents for the manufacture of integrated-circuit products.

Analogic declined after the medical and airport-security device maker reported quarterly sales that missed analysts' estimates.

West Texas Intermediate crude futures were up $1.168 at $98.490 per barrel, according to the ICE.

The 10-year Treasury yield fell four basis points to 2.80%.


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Broker Tips

Shares in TUI Travel dropped on Tuesday despite the leisure travel firm beating expectations with its annual results, with Investec reiterating it ‘sell’ rating after raising concerns about the upcoming winter season.

The company reported an underlying operating profit of £589m for the year to September 30th, up 13% year-on-year at constant currency and ahead of Investec’s £582m forecast.

The company also maintained its five-year guidance for annualised operating profit growth of 7-10% at constant currency.

“TUI’s results are slightly ahead of expectations and we welcome the flat summer 2014 current capacity plans,” said analyst James Hollins.

“However, one key takeaway is guidance of unchanged H1 2014E winter losses (the reported number is forecast to see higher losses due to the timing of Easter), placing pressure on H2 trading (tough comps) to meet the guided 7-10% year-on-year [operating profit] increase.”

He said that meeting this forecast is “not a stretch, but also not a guarantee”.

Investec currently expects TUI Travel to report an operating profit of £618m for the year to September 2014.

“This is +5% year-on-year against the reported FY13A figure, although our projection includes an element of negative currency translation and we are happy to remain at this level despite being below the 7-10% guidance range.”

The stock was down 1.12% at 379.7p before the close of trade.

 

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